Kuzul

When looking into Brett Gardner‘s problems, one stat really jumps out at you. Gardner, after batting .287 against righties last year, is only batting a .105 against them this year.

But even more telling is what Mark Simon found out in an excellent article on ESPN back in March. Last year, against righties, before he was hit by a pitch on June 21st, Gardner had an awesome .421 OBP. Afterwards, it dipped to .353.

What happened? Well, according to a heat map Simon uses, basically, Gardner stopped hitting the low and away pitch. The heat map shows that Gardner, except for the up and in pitch, was pretty effective in more batting zones pre-injury. Post-injury, righties began to throw low and away. And get him out.

And that trend has continued. Fox Sports’ Hot Spots shows that while Gardner has actually been good this year on the up and in pitches and pitches towards the center of the plate, low pitches and outside pitches have rendered him ice-cold. And pitchers know that.

What happened to Gardner when he got injured? Who knows? Whatever it was, it changed his swing, and its still affecting him. Yesterday, Yankee hitting coach Kevin Long said they spotted a mechanical flaw in Gardner’s swing.

“He is not trying to lift the ball at all, it has more to do with what he is not doing with the lower half,” Long said of the ice-cold Gardner, who wasn’t in the lineup last night against Rangers lefty Matt Harrison. “He isn’t using the lower half. And he is looking at pitches and expanding the zone more than usual. He has been feeling for his swing.”

“Not trying to lift the ball. Not using his lower half.” That sounds like Gardner couldn’t get the low outside pitch because his swing was flat because his legs weren’t under him. Hopefully, whatever Long found is the cure. The Yankees could use the guy who was batting .321 at the end of June last year, with the .821 OPS. Badly.

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When Josh Beckett was traded to the Boston Red Sox in 2006, it was assumed he would be an Cy Young candidate and an ace for years to come. He was 25, an absolute hoss, and seemingly the reincarnation of Roger Clemens: a hard-throwing intimidator and strikeout king without fear.

And for the most part, he’s worked out for the BoSox just fine. He has pitched well—maybe not as consistently as Boston wanted—but he did lead the Red Sox to a Series victory in 2007, where he pitched lights out. His 2007 postseason: 4-0 with an ERA around 1.6.

Fast forward to now. Josh Beckett is no longer the ace of the Red Sox staff—Jon Lester is. He’s not the No. 2 pitcher either—Clay Buchholz is. In fact, Beckett is the No. 4 pitcher in the Red Sox rotation and is being jiggered by Terry Francona to make sure he starts the season against the Indians and not against the Yankees and Rangers.

Whoa…what’s happened to Beckett? Can he not even pitch to the Rangers without Red Sox Nation quaking in their caps? What’s wrong?

Well, checking the Fangraphs.com site, we see that Beckett has only lost only a touch off his mph, so arm strength is not the issue. No, looking further at the numbers, what the trouble seems to be is Beckett’s inability to spot his pitches like he used to. His curveball, once rock-reliable has lost movement and has earned a -2.1 wCB. His fastball, formerly his bread-and-butter pitch, has seemingly abandoned the lower half of the zone. Now up in the strike zone, Beckett’s wFB has plummeted and as a result, Beckett is relying more on his two-seamer and cutter to try to get better movement on his pitches.

It hasn’t worked. Contact against his pitches (not down in the zone anymore) is way up from where it used to be. Walks are also up to a career high for Beckett. Most telling, perhaps, is his swStrk (strikes swung on and missed) which is an all-time low. In short, he’s putting fatter pitches nice and up in the zone.

What’s also interesting to note is his change-up has actually gained almost three mph. So not only is his fastball slowing a bit, his change is speeding up. What the heck? How does that happen?

Well, last May, Red Sox manager Terry Francona expressed a concern with Beckett’s repeatable mechanics. According to the massblog.com of last May 29th:

“Josh Beckett’s return from the disabled list hit a roadblock yesterday after the Red Sox became concerned with the pitcher’s inability to repeat his delivery in a side session where he threw 20-25 pitches. Manager Terry Francona…said that Beckett was changing arm angles on his deliveries and that his inability to remain consistent is a cause for concern.”

Also, early last season, in the Boston Globe, (former) pitching coach John Farrell said:

“An additional side with Josh to reinforce, particularly out of the stretch, him getting back to a proper balance point and not getting his delivery too spread out to where he loses a downhill plane to his fastball. When he gets into a proper position, his curveball is less readable by an opposing hitter. Part of this is a constant use of the slide step that can cause some of the habits that we’re trying to recorrect here.”

If Beckett’s fastball isn’t really losing all that much mph, but batters are hitting him harder and he’s walking more per nine IP, logic would dictate that Farrell and Francona are right and that Beckett’s mechanics are fried, and he can’t locate like he used to. Seemingly this started somewhere in late 2009, when Beckett’s ERA ballooned from a mid-August low of 3.10 to a season’s end of 3.86 with a number of bad performances. Former pitching coach Farrell is quoted as saying on seacoastonline.com in late August after Beckett gave up 15 runs in 13.1 IP in 2 starts:

“(Poor) location of his pitches has caused the numbers to be where they are. It’s been a matter of missing with some fastballs up in the strike zone or a curveball that hasn’t had the same finish.” … And, Farrell added, that is easily correctable.

“For the majority of the season, he’s been so dominant in the bottom of the strike zone,” Farrell said. “Now, every effort is being made to get him down in the zone again. … But a little tidying of Beckett’s mechanics could produce a dramatic turnaround.

“There may be some times when maybe some added effort or an attempt to get some added velocity has caused him to get a little spread out (with his delivery) and caused him to throw the baseball on a little bit more of a flat plane rather than the downward angle that all pitchers need.”

For Yankee fans, the question is clearly, “Can Josh Beckett return to dominance?” Early signs are…not yet. Despite even more work on mechanics (new pitching coach Curt Young is shortening Beckett’s stride in an effort to get him to repeat his delivery more easily), spring training has been a repeat of last year, with nice flashes of hard heat and a sharp curve, then a terrible inning where he can’t seemingly get anyone out. So far, Beckett has the 5.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.4.

Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are an awesome No. 1 and 2. John Lackey had a so-so 2010 and at age 32, it’s possible, but not guaranteed that he will be better in 2011, though most projections figure he will be somewhat better. In any event it’s questionable that Lackey will be as dominant as he used to be pitching to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in tiny Fenway Park. And Dice-K, minus a great 2008 season, has been a disappointment.

The key is Beckett. If he returns to form, the Red Sox have a dominant starting three. And a dominant starting three pretty much ensures you’ll win a short playoff series. If Beckett doesn’t return to form, however…well then, the Red Sox blew a sack full of money on a pitcher who’s busted.

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The Mets have a the fifth largest payroll in baseball. They have a shiny new stadium, they play in the largest market in America and have a roster loaded with talent.

For all this, the Mets are terrible. In every way imaginable.

The Mets won a total of 79 games last year—23 games behind their “enemies” the Philadelphia Phillies. They ranked 12th in attendance, despite the new stadium, and behind decidedly small market Milwaukee. They averaged over 12,000 less people per game than their crosstown rivals, the Yankees.

The Phillies, like the Mets, made trades for veterans, signed big contracts and generally succeed in their plan to win now. While that plan worked for the Phillies, it failed miserably for the Mets and only left them in a spiraling losing funk with an albatross of a expensive roster.

Let’s take a look at the Mets roster. Johan Santana, the ace the Mets traded for, finally blew out the shoulder that scouts have said for some time that he would. The injury, which comes from long-term wear, brings with it not only a long rehabilitation, but accusations of the Mets overusing Santana.

Santana had been complaining about his arm as early as late June. Yet the Mets continued to throw Santana out there every fifth day until early September, even though the Mets were completely out of the race by mid to late July. By the time Santana comes back in 2012, he will be 33 with three years left on his contract.

Carlos Beltran, who was an overpaid centerfielder to begin with, has mercifully only one year on his contract. A empty of husk of his former self, Beltran has played 125 games the past two seasons and has already injured himself in spring training. He batted .255 last year. He makes $18.5 million this year.

Jason Bay, who the Mets signed to a large four-year, $66 million contract before last season, looked completely uncomfortable and intimidated in the spacious new CitiField. One year after hitting 36 home runs in Boston, Bay hit a pathetic 6 home runs in 95 games before concussing  himself running for a fly ball.

Gary Matthews batted .194 last season before being cut by the Mets. He is set to earn $12 million this year.

One-time face of the franchise Jose Reyes, who at one time was getting press that he would be the new “Best Shortstop in New York,” is reportedly playing for a trade. Reyes, who made seventh on the MVP list in 2006, has been beset by injuries, a bad attitude and declining skills both at the plate and on the bases.

Last year, Reyes had a Dave Kingman-esque OBP of .321—not what you want from your “speedy” shortstop. Reyes speed is also in question as he only stole 30 bases last season and was caught a third of the time—a far cry from his heyday of 2006-2007. Reyes will make $11 million in what his probably his last year as a Met.

Which brings us to Oliver Perez. Perez, who was signed by the Mets in 2009 to a $36 million, three-year contract. Reportedly, the Mets competed only against themselves for the services of Perez, which was meant to solidify the rotation after Santana.

Since the contract was signed for that $36 million, Perez’s record is 3-9 with an ERA of 6.81 in roughly 100 IP. Perez has been in the minors both in 2009 and 2010 to work on his wrecked mechanics. Perez, having completely lost any confidence he may have had, has lost velocity and abandoned his fastball as well as his curveball, which he didn’t use last year at all. His fastball and changeup are 4 mph apart.

The Mets recently gave up any idea of using Perez in the rotation this season and have sent him to the end of the bench in the bullpen. Price tag: $13 million.

In 86 games last season, Luis Castillo committed 11 errors and batted .245. Price tag: $6 million.

And then there is Francisco Rodriguez, he of the dramatic mound gestures. While his on-the-field play has generally been good, it’s the other part of his life that the Mets wish they could make go away. Having no real reason for a high-priced reliever, the Mets would do well to trade K-Rod. Except they can’t.

Since being signed, K-Rod has had tussles with opposing players, his own coaches and, most well-known, his girlfriend’s father, whom he punched in the face.

Adding salt to the wound, Rodriguez injured a ligament in his thumb from the altercation and needed season-ending surgery. Rodriguez was ordered by the court to stay away from his girlfriend and he family; Rodriguez violated the court order, though he did escape further punishment.

The good news is that a ton of this payroll baggage comes off the roster next year. The bad news is that the Mets don’t have a ton of talent on the way. Keith Law recently put the Mets’ minor league organization at 26 out of 32. The Mets didn’t have one prospect ranked in the top 50.

Also, the Mets have been accused of rushing their recent young talent too quickly, with Baseball Prospectus writing: “The Minaya regime wasn’t particularly successful at any aspect of developing or handling prospects.”

Put it all together and what you get is a big, expensive gooey mess. The Mets will go nowhere this year; the season already having been written off. And with the Madoff scandal having struck the Wilpon family fairly hard, it is tough to see the Mets being big free agency players anytime soon. So, to recap:

1. Terrible free-agent signings.
2. No young talent coming up the pike.
3. Disgruntled and fading stars.
4. No free-agent help for the forseeable future.

The original Worst Team Money Could Buy was about the 1993 Mets who won 59 games. The 2011 squad might give those guys a run for their money.

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The whole offseason drama with the Yankees was: “Who’s going to pitch for us?”

The Yankees have talented minor league pitching prospects, but they aren’t ready to pitch by Opening Day and they have free agents on their staff, with decidedly mixed results.

Where that leaves the Yankees as Spring Training 2011 begins is with a starting rotation with holes the size of fishing nets. Just how did the richest organization in sports get into this mess?

Short answer: They don’t develop pitchers. 

Since the “Core Four” came up together in 1996, the Yankees have developed exactly one starting pitcher: Phil Hughes.

For years, the Yankees relied on Andy Pettitte and a bevy of free agents: Clemens, Mussina, Wells, Pavano, Wright, Irabu, etc.

During that time, from 1996 until 2010, there were two pitchers the Yankees brought up that could have worked, but A: They traded Ted Lilly for a headcase and B: They mishandled Chien-Ming Wang’s injury and he is busted for the foreseeable future.

It’s interesting to note that the Yankees were initially reluctant to bring Wang up and showed little faith in him, despite his domination of the minor leagues. Wang only was in the rotation because free agents Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano and Jared Wright all had catastrophic performances throughout 2005.

Wang was never supposed to have been given a chance—circumstances and desperation afforded him his opportunity.

In any event, the point is the Yankees have had no real success in developing young pitchers since 1996. Their faith has always been placed—despite much evidence to the contrary—in free agency.

Whether it was due to lack of interest or just plain old incompetence, the Yankees haven’t been able to develop a young pitcher and haven’t shown any confidence in giving one a chance.

“We’re gonna be in it every year,” says Hank Steinbrenner. “Every single year.”

Which is great news for Yankees fans, having an ownership that puts their profit back onto the field is a wonderful thing.

Ask the Pirates.

But it also means that trusting rookies to develop is going to usually be a non-starter, especially pitchers. Rookies make mistakes, need time to grow.

Check out Randy Johnson’s first couple of years, or Johan Santana’s or Tom Glavine’s. It takes a bit of time before pitchers find their groove.

The Yankees do not have a bit of time.

So here come the free agents—the Kei Igawas, the Kevin Browns, the Jared Wrights, the A.J. Burnetts.

Which brings us to 2011 Spring Training, with a ball club that has a $200 million dollar price tag and roughly 2.5 to 3.5 starting pitchers.

Ivan Nova will probably have a starting job, but will also have the added pressure that he has to produce immediately as a starter in the rotation. He wont be afforded the luxury of developing in the bullpen and working his way onto the staff. His growth as a pitcher is borne of panicked desperation instead of prudent development.

Our rivals to the north have in two slots of their rotation potential aces that were home-grown. Both Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz came up young, were allowed to make mistakes (Jon Lester’s WHIP his first two years was 1.648 and 1.460; Buchholz went 2-9, 6.75 ERA, 1.763 WHIP in 2008), were allowed to get sent back down to AAA to work on their stuff and generally learn and grow.

There is very little chance that the Yankees would have allowed a 2-9 performance or a 1.648 WHIP rookie on their staff. A call would have been made to Sidney Ponson or Shawn Chacon to try to save the season.

Development over.

So that is where the Yankees are in 2011: Two quality starters, one recovering starter, one journeyman starter and a rushed rookie, along with a $200 million dollar price tag and tons of hope in the minors, but most of them at least a year away.

Going forward, the prayers of Yankees fans regarding those talented minor league pitchers are A: Don’t rush them (remember 19-year-old Jose Rijo?) and B: Don’t trade them for someone like Derek Lowe or Bronson Arroyo in an attempt to catch the Red Sox in July.

I do appreciate the Yankees spending beau-coup bucks to try to win. But that mindset—of winning every single season no matter what—has placed pitcher development on the back burner, and has created a culture of distrust of young pitchers.

“Win now” has meant “No Growing Pains;” either perform like an All-Star immediately or you’re out, which is a short-sighted philosophy.

Overpaying an older, fading pitcher who may not fit your team and who will plug your payroll for years (Brown, Johnson, Wright) instead of taking a chance to develop a younger, cheaper pitcher makes no sense over the long haul.

Yet the Yankees continue to do it.

Which is how we got here.

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Monday’s Spring Training press report didn’t have much to say. Joe Girardi said the platitudes, as did Brian Cashman.

Not much except for this:

“We signed (Derek Jeter) to be our shortstop and we signed him to be our leadoff hitter,” Girardi said. “And he’s got a pretty good track history of what he’s done in the game of baseball. He had a couple of rough months last year. The month of September he was back to being Derek, I thought. I’m not really too concerned about him as our leadoff hitter.”

Okay, one question. Why?

In almost every single way, Brett Gardner is the perfect leadoff man over Derek Jeter.

As for Girardi’s comment about Jeter being back to his old self in September, that’s not entirely true. It is true that Jeter batted .287 in the last month, which is better than he batted in any month since April. But .287 isn’t what you want out of Jeter.

Jeter can’t draw walks like he used to; Gardner can. Jeter can’t run like he used to; Gardner has speed to burn. Take September, Jeter’s best month since April—he had a .375 OBP. In September, with a severely sprained wrist and his worst month of the year, Gardner’s OBP was a .372. In that month—his best OBP month all season—Jeter stole three bases. In his worst month, with a sprained wrist, Gardner stole eight bases.

Look, I get it, Jeter is the captain. The face of the franchise. But would it be such a insult to him to bat second with Teixeira behind him and trying to drive in Gardner with slaps the other way as Gardner creates a hole on the right side of the field? Doesn’t that make more sense?

Gardner was eighth in the league in OBP, third in steals, 10th in walks and ninth in runs scored. All while batting ninth in the lineup. The man is a born leadoff hitter. Jeter, at this point in his carer, isn’t. And it shouldn’t be a slap to the captain. He has batted second more in career than in any other spot, so it’s not a big move.

I admire Girardi’s loyalty. He played with Jeter and has a bunch of respect for the franchise, but batting Jeter first is a mistake

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After the 2008 season—a season where he pitched better than he had in years—Mike Mussina abruptly retired. Never mind that his ERA was the lowest it had been since 2001; likewise his WAR—the lowest since 2001. And never mind that Moose had won 20 games for the first time in career, putting him at 270 wins for his career. 300 wins—and a guaranteed Hall of Fame invite—was within reach. Figure 2 to 3 more seasons (which the Yankees would happily offer him as they needed the pitching) of 10 to 15-win seasons— a reasonable expectation considering he just came off a 20-win season—and he’d be assured of the Hall.

Instead he left. Gone. Done.

The Mussina exit is interesting because a very similar situation is occurring right now with Andy Pettitte wavering on retiring. Coming off a bounce-back type season—where he had his lowest ERA for the Yankees since 2002—where Andy is showing that there are still rounds left in the lefty’s rifle, why would Pettitte retire? And more to the point of this article, why would he retire when he potentially close to Hall of Fame consideration.

Comparing Andy Pettitte to Mike Mussina—who should expect Hall of Fame consideration when the time comes—one finds very similar pitchers with very similar careers. (So close are these 2 that on Baseball-Reference’s “Similar Pitchers by Age” feature, for Andy Pettitte; the last 4 years that pitcher is Mike Mussina.) Pettitte’s win percentage is .635 compared to Mussina’s .638. Pettitte’s ERA+ is 117; Mussina’s is 123+. Both spent, if not the entirety, the lion’s share of their career in the AL East during the steroid era. And while Mussina’s lifetime WAR of 85.6 trumps Pettitte’s 66.9, Mussina did pitch over 500 more innings than Pettitte. And Pettitte, a well-known big-game pitcher does have 5 World Series rings, compared to Mussina’s zero.

However, where Mussina truly leads Pettitte in Hall of Fame consideration is the benchmark “300 Wins” consideration. Mussina is only 30 away and ended on a 20 game season. Pettitte is 60 away at 240 wins—though again, he does have practically the same win percentage as Mussina. The question is: If Pettitte comes back, what will it take to seriously aid his HOF chances?

At the bottom of Baseball-Reference.com’s page on Andy Pettitte, of the 4 Hall of Fame Statistics, Pettitte only rates as a Hall of Famer on one of them—the Hall of Fame Monitor. Pettitte is close on the Hall of Fame Standard statistic, just 8 points away from “average” Hall of Famer.

But is Pettitte really that far off? Compare Pettitte’s career to that of Hall of Famer Juan Marichal. Marichal ended his career with 243 wins, just 3 more than Pettitte. Marichal’s win percentage was .631, just below Pettitte’s .635. Marichal’s ERA+ was 123, just above Pettitte’s 117 ERA+. But consider that 2 important facts; one; Marichal pitched 500 more innings than Pettitte to get his 243 wins at a time when relief pitchers were far less common and two; Marichal pitched in National League during the glory days of pitching of the 1960s, instead of the steroid-era American League East.

Catfish Hunter is another good example. Hunter, a Hall of Famer has a lifetime ERA+ 105, far below Pettitte’s 117. His win percentage of .574 is also far below Pettitte’s Hunter despite that fact that Hunter pitched on the 1970s Yankees and A’s. Hunter though did have 5 20-win seasons compared to Pettitte’s 2, and was a Cy Young winner while Pettitte only came in second once. Hunter though, pitched 400 more innings than Pettitte, won 16 fewer games (and lost 26 more) than Pettitte, and has roughly 140 less strikeouts. Like Pettitte, however, he has 5 World Series rings.

But the example I like to use when thinking of Pettitte’s Hall of Fame chances is Don Sutton. Sutton, a Hall of Famer has 324 wins, thereby guaranteeing his admittance. Yet Sutton’s win percentage is far below Andy Pettitte’s, at .559; this despite being on the Dodgers in the 60s and late 70s. Sutton also never won a Cy Young, won 20 games only once and has a much lower K/9 than Pettitte. And like Marichal, pitched in the National League in the non-steroid, glory era of pitchers, while Pettitte’s career enveloped the heart of the Juice Era in the AL East. 

Yes, despite the favorable comparisons to Sutton, Mussina, Marichal (as well as Ferguson Jenkins, Phil Niekro, Early Wynn, and Gaylord Perry, among others) the sense is that Pettitte probably isn’t a Hall of Fame pitcher. Why? Because he doesn’t have the benchmark 300 wins and never won a Cy Young. Excepting Marichal, all the guys I mentioned have one or the other. What Marichal had was that he led the league in a number of categories; Wins, ERA, Complete Games, Shutouts, WHIP, ERA+, HR/9 etc, while Pettitte only led the league in wins once and HR/9 once, both early in his career.

In a sense, what the zeitgeist is regarding about Pettitte’s Hall of Fame’s chances is that Pettitte didn’t dominate his time. He was a very good pitcher, a tough postseason pitcher, but not the guy the league looked to as the pitcher of his age. 

I’m not sure there is anything Pettitte could do to seriously aid his Hall of Fame chances. It’s highly dubious that Pettitte could win a Cy Young if he hasn’t already. The same goes for dominating the WHIP, ERA, or Shutouts categories of the AL. And short of pitching another 4 to 5 seasons of 12-16 wins—something Pettitte doesn’t want to do and might not be able to anyway—Pettitte’s chances for the Hall are about as good as they are going to be. If he wins 20 games this season, maybe the Hall would take kinder to Pettitte—as they might do with Mussina and his final season—but that is a wild shot on an extremely dark day. 

A while back I wrote about Pettitte’s chances for the Hall of Fame, and looking back at that article, I have to say I was wrong. I concluded that Pettitte’s 5 World Series rings would get him in. However, after reviewing my argument, I’d have to say that no, Pettitte won’t get him. While, yes, he did win 5 World Series rings, he was never considered the unquestioned “Ace” of the staff on any of those teams, as say a Whitey Ford was. And yes, his stats may measure up favorably with several Hall of Famers—indeed, in some areas, beats them quite handily—Pettitte has none of the yardstick-type requirements: the Cy Young, the 300 wins, or the sense that he was a the dominating pitcher of his time. 

There is the old adage: “It ain’t the Hall of the Very Good. “And after further review, Andy Pettitte was a very, very good pitcher. But not a Hall of Fame one.

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In short, no.

Cliff Lee is a stud. A rock solid ace who makes batters look foolish and guarantees his team that they have a chance to win every single time out. Missing out on a guy like that is never good.

However,as previously stated, had the Yankees signed Cliff Lee to a seven year contract, by 2013 the Yankees would be indebted over $130 million to a bunch of guys aged 33 and over. Very good players, yes, but players on the decline. That’s a lot of money being handed out to players whose best years are behind them.

So where are the Yankees without Lee? Well, definitely in the short term, not as powerful a juggernaut as they would have been. There is a hole in the rotation—no question decisions need to be made between now and Opening Day. But what the “Failure to Sign Lee” forces the Yankees to do—hopefully—is to take their medicine.

There are a couple of the directions the Yankees can go in 2011 and beyond. Most likely, the Yankees are going to do everything they possibly can to go get another starter. And that’s fine.

Truthfully there ain’t much out there. Justin Duchscherer, Brandon Webb and the lot are gambles at best. There’s talk the Yankees might try to trade for Twins starter Kevin Slowey. But you know the Twins would ask for the world for a middling pitcher considering they know the Yankees are dealing from weakness. The Yankees will find someone off the scrap heap and hopefully not pay too much in the process.

The other option—and the one I hope they take—is to give their farm system a chance. Cashman for years now has said that the Yankees have to get younger, have to get cheaper, have to start using their own kids—all the while doing exactly the opposite.

Now, realizing the Yankees can’t always buy a rotation, they might actually have to what every other team in the major leagues does (except seemingly Philadelphia). Bring up a kid from their farm system and go through the growing pains as they learn how to pitch in the bigs. As Mike Silva reported earlier, this isn’t an option the Yankees are comfortable with—but come on, is Ricky Nolasco the long term answer? Jeremy Bonderman? Why not go from within and try to build one of your own?

Look, last year’s Yankees team won 95 games. Should Andy Pettitte come back—and I think the Yankees are going to give him oodles of cash to make sure that he does—the Yankee rotation won’t be in the terrible shape everyone seems to think it will be in. With Pettitte back, the Yankee rotation is still better than 80 percent of most teams. Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte make a nice front three. And if new pitching coach Larry Rothschild can work even a little bit of magic with A.J. Burnett and get him to a place of halfway-reliability, that means the Yankees would have four awesome-to-decent starters.

I sincerely hope the Yankees ultimately make the choice they have been doing their best to avoid, and that’s going with their kids. There is no magic bullet out there in free agency. No hidden gem someone missed. All you have are busted shoulders and head cases.

Why not try to mold your own starter? Ivan Nova showed enough in a cup of coffee call-up late last year to at least get a shot at the five spot. Down the line, after Pettitte retires, the Yankees could turn to promising kids Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, Hector Noesi, Andrew Brackman, Shaeffer Hall, Adam Warren and Graham Stoneburner. And look, seriously, no one seriously thinks all of these kids will turn out to be quality pitchers, but if even just one makes it, that’s a reliable starter pitching for 10 years in your staff, and that you control for a long while. And heck, what if two kids make it? Isn’t that a chance worth taking?

At the very, very least, it will be cheaper than the alternative, spending money and prospects on a guy who—bet the farm—you know won’t be the answer.

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As of this moment, right here, the 2013 Yankees already have in the neighborhood of 109 million dollars spent. That’s with arbitration, or new contracts. 109 million…for a season 3 years away.

What is that team going to look like? Is it going to be as old and brittle as some forecast? Well, maybe. Let’s take a guess at what the lineup and rotation might look like by then.

In The Field

1B: Mark Teixeira is penned in here for the foreseeable future.

2013: 22.5 million, 33 years old in 2013.

2B: Robinson Cano, barring injury or severe drop in play, will be here in 2013 on a new contract.

2013: New contract would bring in say, rough guess, 18 million per. 30 years old in 2013.

SS: Eduardo Nunez. Anyway, that is the plan. Scouts say he definitely has the potential; reminds some of Cano a bit when he was that age. By 2013, hopefully, he will mature and take the next step.

2013: Rookie-type contract. Yanks save money here. Will turn 26 in 2013 season.

3B: Derek Jeter. Think Jeter was mad with the contract negotiations? Wait until they move him to 3rd.

2013: 17 million. Will turn 39 in 2013 season.

LF: Grady Sizemore. Sizemore’s current contract is up in 2012, and if healthy and has a bounce-back season, he will demand too much money for the Indians to resign him. Also, have a feeling the Yankees will trade Swisher at some point, and won’t resign Granderson and will need some outfielders. Therefore, Yankees trade for Sizemore. Sizemore will turn 31 in 2013 and the Yankes will resign him before he becomes a free agent.

2013: 31. Contract: If he’s healthy, say 14 million or so.

CF: Brett Gardner. Mr. Scrappy himself is the Yankees lead-off hitter and defensive stalwart.

Turns 30 in 2013. Yankees sign him to friendly contract of about 10 million per.

RF: Jesus Montero. Too big behind the plate and with other catching prospects coming, Montero is placed in the right field spot. Will Gardner next to him and the veteran Sizemore in left, the Yankees feel Montero can’t do too much damage.

Montero will be 23 in 2013 and still be on a very friendly rookie contract.

C: Figure a mix of Gary Sanchez—by accounts the Yankees top all-around catching prospect—and a journeyman, Kelly Shoppach, for instance, to take some of the days from the rookie and tutor him. Shoppach will make about 5 mil.

DH: Alex Rodriguez. Too steroid-damaged to play the field anymore, A-Rod clogs up the DH role until 2017.

Turns 38 in 2013 and earns 28 million.

Rotation

CC Sabathia will turn 33 in 2013 and will earn 23 million.

Cliff Lee will turn 35 during the 2013 season and will earn about 25 million.

A.J. Burnett will be 36 in 2013 and earn 16.5 million.

Phil Hughes will be 27 in 2013 and will be signed by the Yankees to a deal near 10 million.

Dellin Betances will be 25 in 2013 and under a rookie contract.

The Yankees will try commit a panic-trade for another pitcher at some point. Those trades usually do not work out, but if A.J. Burnett pitches his way out of the rotation (a distinct possibility), figure a Jason Marquis-type trade to try to fill in the gaping hole Burnett leaves. Betances figures to be the “See, we’re trying out rookies” pitcher of 2013.

Bullpen

The first season without Mariano Rivera. Panic! The Yankees sign a couple of relief guys to help out—figure Mike Gonzalez and Jonathon Broxton (or similar dudes) to say 18 million for them total. Another rookie, (the Yankees need them to offset the leviathan-type contracts) Manny Banuelos will get a shot in the pen as a lefty, along with the next Joba Chamberlain, “can we get anything out him?” guy—Andrew Brackman. Adam Warren will be a pen guy as well, long reliever. A couple of other journeymen fill out the pen.

Notable Guys Traded/Busts. Nick Swisher. Austin Romine. Joba Chamberlain. Graham Stoneburner. Brandon Laird. Slade Heathcott. Adam Warren. J. R. Murphy. Cito Culver. Ivan Nova. David Adams. Hector Noesi.

Anyway, the above team costs in the ballpark of 210 million and that doesn’t include a bench or any substantive free agent signings between now and 2013 (except of course, Cliff Lee). It also doesn’t include the panic rental trades (the Berkman trade for example). As with any speculation, it’s all educated guesswork. But its fun educated guesswork all to prove a point. And that point should be obvious: The Yankees in 2013 will be in hock to some players—especially the rotation—on the wrong side of 32—some way past 32. It’s coming, these debts, we all know it. The question is “What do we do about it?” The above was just my fun educated guess. What is yours?

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Last week, I wrote about how, due to age and financial considerations, this could be Jorge Posada’s last year as a Yankee. Let’s take this thought line—specifically future Yankee financial considerations a bit further: What have the Yankees set themselves up, re. the future?

Now everyone thinks the Yankees have a limitless bankroll, and yes, they have more than their fair share, but it’s not bottomless wallet.

For a while now, there have been rumblings about Cashman refusing to go after a player, even though the Yankees could have used him, due to a budget (for instance, Johnny Damon or picking up Kerry Wood’s option).

Most people laugh it off. But what if it’s serious? What if the current economic crisis is affecting the Yankees and affecting their…gulp…budget?

Well, since significantly increasing their budget from the early 2000s to about 200 million of late, the Yankees have leveled off, giving themselves a soft cushion to go after midseason free agents who will leave at the end of the year, such as Lance Berkman. Hal Steinbrenner has said recently that the Yankees will stay at the same level, so that’s about $200 million.

OK, let’s assume that the Yankees sign Derek Jeter to a three year, $20 million dollar contract, which will bring us to 2013. In 2013, the Yankees would owe $110 million to five guys: Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira, Rodriguez and Jeter. The Yankees would have to have the rest of their roster under contract for about $90 million.

And what if Cliff Lee signs with the Yankees? That would take about another $25 million, so, six guys would account for $135 million. Throw in a club option for Robinson Cano, and now the number is $150 million.

This assumes the Yankees don’t pick up Curtis Granderson’s option; this also assumes Mariano Rivera retires, the Yankees don’t resign Nick Swisher and the raises the Yankees would have to pay Phil Hughes, Brett Gardner and whoever takes over shortstop (Nunez perhaps), assuming the Yankees don’t sign another significant free agent (who takes over for Rivera if Chamberlain bombs?)

Well, Cashman has been rumbling about going to the farm system more and more, and maybe, in the near future, he’ll live by his own words. Odds are, he’ll have to.

With three quarters of his budget going to a handful of guys and a number of holes on the team, the Yankees would have to resort to their minor leaguers. Starting with Jesus Montero, the Yankees will need their farm system to produce at a high level, especially considering that the guys pulling down the $150 million will be again and most likely, seeing their level of play diminishing.

Just check it out on Baseball-Reference.com: Alex Rodriguez will be 37 in 2013; Jeter will be 39; A.J Burnett will be 36; Teixeira will be 33; Cliff Lee, should he sign would turn 35 in 2013; and Sabathia, luckily will still be the baby at only 32.

So, it would appear the Yankees have no choice but to turn to the minors to fill in the hole at left field, right field, ace reliever, shortstop (Jeter would move to third), a couple of starters and the rest of their bench and bullpen. Some of those holes could of course be filled with free agents, but not the type of free agent the Yankees are used to.

Consider that $50 million or so has to get divied up by the younger players who should be expecting raises by that time (Phil Hughes, Brett Gardner, Joba Chamberlain, if he is still around, David Robertson, etc.) In other words, it’s doubtful that the Yankees would be entering the Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols sweepstakes. Could they afford say, a Wandy Rodriguez? Not without some belt-tightening.

So expect to see more young Yankees than we are used to seeing. Expect maybe an Andrew Brackman reliving where it used to be Mariano Rivera, a Slade Heathcott where Paul O’Neill and Nick Swisher player or Austin Romine where Posada was.

The real $200 million dollar question is this: Is the Yankee farm system ready to play at the New York Yankee level of quality? With the high expectations from fans and the media and the world watching? With TV ratings in the balance?

Who knows? All this is speculative—Who knows what will by 2013? Granted, no one. But it is likely. The Yankees owe a great deal of money to aging players. They also have a budget.

They also have a lot to think about.

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In the last year of his current contract, New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada will be primarily a DH. He may play some catcher sporadically, but in 2011, for the first time in his career, the switch-hitter will be the everyday DH.

Frankly, it’s a move long coming. Never a defensive guru or a master game-caller, Posada finally broke down this season and looked every bit of his 38 years.

Posada was fourth in the AL with 72 stolen bases, second in passed balls and third in errors. Always more of an offensive catcher, the wear and tear of catching over a decade and a half took its toll on Posada’s bat, as his offensive statistics in 2010 dropped in every category.

OK, so he’s the 2011 Yankee DH. But what happens in 2012 when his contract ends?

Entering the 2012 season, Posada will be 40 years old. And the talk is that the Yankees would like to move Jeter to third base (another move long overdue) to hide his range deficiencies and move Alex Rodriguez and his aching hip to the DH for the rest of his gargantuan contract to reduce wear and tear.

So where does that leave Posada? In the past, the Yankees for the most part weren’t afraid to tell someone that their time was up—Bernie Williams anyone? Will the Yankees tell one of their Core Four to go home and sit on the couch?

Most likely, they will have to.

Assuming Posada doesn’t have a career year in 2011, at the age of 40, the Yankees won’t have a place for him the following year. With Jesus Montero and Austin Romine close to being ready to take over—if not in fact ready, in Montero’s case—the Yankees would most likely go with the younger and cheaper prospects than a fading, aging Posada.

Also, they may not have the money.

So far in 2012, the Yankees have to pay large money to Jeter, A-Rod, Sabathia, Burnett, Teixeira, Granderson, as well as pay Cano his substantial option. Just those guys alone add up to about $125 million. And that doesn’t include Swisher, Rivera or Pettitte. Or Cliff Lee. Considering all that, signing a deep, in-decline Jorge Posada would be a luxury. And contrary to popular belief, the Yankees resources are not, in fact, limitless.

Does Posada want to retire? Again, he would be 40 years old in 2012. At that age, Bill Dickey had retired. Yogi Berra’s last year with the Yankees was when he was 38—and he was an outfielder at the time. Ernie Lombardi was done by 39. Michey Cochrane was done by 34. Gary Carter, 38. Johnny Bench, 35. Point being, Posada’s body, regardless of what his gut tells him, might be due to step down after 2011.

The only problem with that might be if Posada thinks he has more in him. A proud guy, Posada might balk at any suggestions of retiring. Again, this all depends on the projection that Posada doesn’t rebound with a career year at the age of 40, which is extremely unlikely.

On the topic of retirement, Posada said back in February 2010, “I am going to make it tough…I don’t want to go away.  I am having fun and enjoy playing.  To tell you the truth, they are going to really have to rip [the uniform] off me.”

Not the words of a guy who will go gracefully. So considering the Yankees plans for the future and Posada’s intransigence, something will have to give.

Point being. 2011 might—and most likely will be—the last year we see Jorge Posada in pinstripes for a meaningful game. If you are a Yankee fan, you might want to enjoy what time you have left to watch him.

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