Kuzul

We’re deep into the MLB offseason, which means the speculation machine is running on hot-stove fumes.

Some of the biggest free agents and trade targets have found homes. Now, it’s time to sift through the remainder and concoct scenarios—both to stave off boredom and because once in a while this stuff actually happens.

In that spirit, here’s a hypothetical deal that’s pure speculation but bursting with plausible intrigue: The New York Yankees shipping left fielder Brett Gardner to the San Francisco Giants.

First, the rumor: The Yankees, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Tuesday, are continuing “to gauge interest” in Gardner, who has drifted through the rumor mill since the 2016 trade deadline at least.

New York, Sherman added, may be unable to make more moves without shedding salary as it proceeds with its rebuild/retool/whatever.

Gardner isn’t a back-breaker, payroll-wise, but he’s owed $12.5 million in 2017 and $11.5 million in 2018 with a $12.5 million team option and $2 million buyout for 2019.

That could be an impediment for San Francisco. 

The Giants already signed closer Mark Melancon for four years and $62 million. They may be nearing the top of their budget.

“I don’t think there’s anything more to ask of ownership,” general manager Bobby Evans said, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. “It’s more what I can do with what we have.”

That’s the line for the time being. It may be the final line. Monetary constraints are often malleable, however. 

The Giants are in a win-now window. Key members of their offensive core such as Buster Posey and Hunter Pence are in the twilight of their prime. Co-ace Johnny Cueto can opt out of his contract after 2017.

The even-year mystique was punctured last season when the Giants were bounced in the division series by the Chicago Cubs. Still, this is a playoff-caliber team with a hole in left field.

Enter the Yanks and Gardner.

The 33-year-old posted a .261/.351/.362 slash line in 2016 with six triples and 16 stolen bases and won his first career Gold Glove.

The Giants’ incumbent left fielder, Angel Pagan, is a free agent. While Pence is Sharpied into right field and Denard Span in center, the best current option in left is the untested duo of Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker.

New York, meanwhile, can turn to up-and-comers, such as Aaron Judge and Tyler Austin, to join the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury and Aaron Hicks in its outfield, with MiLB stud Clint Frazier coming down the pike.

Gardner would be missed. He’s the Yankees’ senior player at present, as Pinstripe Alley pointed out:

If dealing him allowed the Yanks the flexibility to bolster a questionable starting rotation, however, it’d be a tradeoff worth taking.

What would it cost to pry Gardner away from the Bronx?

“He’s here not because I can’t move him; he’s here because I’m not comfortable moving him, or haven’t been satisfied in my asks that would make me move him,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. “You’re going through the process, and you see if that changes. So far to this point, I’ve said no to a lot of different concepts thrown my way on it.”

The Giants’ farm system isn’t bursting with blue-chips, but they do have talent. 

Infielder Christian Arroyo, the club’s top prospect per MLB.com, should be off-limits. A package headlined by power-hitting Chris Shaw (MLB.com‘s No. 6 first base prospect) and, say, left-hander Andrew Suarez could be enough to get New York’s attention. 

Gardner, it should be noted, won’t solve the Giants’ power problem. San Francisco hit the third-fewest home runs in the game last season. Gardner hit just seven.

His gap pop would play well in AT&T Park’s Triples Alley, however. His defense and plate discipline would slot seamlessly into the Giants’ current roster.

He’s not a savior, but he won’t come at a savior price in terms of prospects or payroll. The Giants will have to budge from their no-more-spending stance. They’ll have to cough up some minor league capital. But they won’t have to back up the Brink’s truck.

As for the Yankees, they can further gild an already glistening farm system and shed some cash in the process.

Sounds like a win-win—and smells like a hot-stove special.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s hyperbole to call Jose Quintana the offseason’s invisible ace.

At the very least, however, rumormongers and prospective suitors are treating Quintana as if he’s blurry around the edges.

Recall the fanfare that surrounded Quintana’s former Chicago White Sox teammate and fellow left-hander Chris Sale. More to the point, recall the glistening package of prospects the Boston Red Sox sent to Chicago to secure Sale’s services.

Sale was worth it. He’s 27 years old, has elite numbers and is locked into an eminently affordable contract.

All of those things can be said—accurately—about Quintana, yet he isn’t generating as much buzz.

Oh, there have been rumblings, as we’ll get to shortly. Quintana, though, is the type of player who should consistently reside in the hot-stove headlines, especially with such a weak free-agent pitching class and other options falling off the board.

Here’s a stat to chew on: Between 2013 and 2016, Quintana’s 18.1 WAR ranked seventh among pitchers by FanGraphs’ measure. He’s sandwiched between Jon Lester (18.4) and Madison Bumgarner (18.0), a couple of southpaws you may have heard of.

Quintana has eclipsed 200 innings in each of the past four seasons. Last season, he posted a career-low 3.20 ERA and finished 10th in American League Cy Young Award balloting.

As for his contract, it’s a budget-conscious general manager’s fantasy: He’ll make $7 million in 2017 and $8.85 million in 2018, followed by $10.5 million team options in 2019 and 2020.

A club that acquired Quintana this winter could have him for four years and $36.85 million. Next season alone, the Arizona Diamondbacks will pay Zack Greinke $34 million. Pause a moment and let that sink in.

Quintana comes with huge upside and little financial risk. The only cost will be in talent, and it will be steep.

The Houston Astros are interested, but they balked at the White Sox’s asking price of Francis Martes, Kyle Tucker and Joe Musgrove, per baseball reporter Peter Gammons. 

Martes and Tucker are the Astros’ top two prospects, per MLB.com, and Musgrove is a 24-year-old right-hander who showed solid flashes in 62 big league innings last season.

Two blue-chip minor leaguers and an MLB-ready arm is a lot to ask. Quintana, however, is a lot to get.

To land Sale, the Red Sox surrendered Yoan Moncada, the game’s No. 1 prospect, per MLB.com. They tossed in right-hander Michael Kopech (MLB.com’s No. 30 prospect), outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe (now the White Sox’s No. 9 prospect) and 22-year-old right-hander Victor Diaz, who averaged 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings last season at Single-A.

In that light, the cost for Quintana doesn’t seem so unreasonable.

In addition to the Astros, ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield lists the Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates, Atlanta Braves, Colorado Rockies, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs as prospective suitors. 

That’s a third of the league. Some, like the Cubs, almost certainly aren’t happening. The point, though, is there are many squads with a need in the rotation and a handful with the ability to at least theoretically meet the White Sox’s sky-high demands. 

“It comes down to needs and wants,” Braves general manager John Coppolella said of a possible Quintana pursuit, per David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “We don’t have needs in starting pitching. Do we want a No. 1 starter, is Chris Sale a No. 1 starter? Yes. Do we want Jose Quintana? I don’t think Jose Quintana is Chris Sale.”

So we get back to the blurry around the edges. The underrating and underappreciating. 

Quintana isn’t Sale by definition. He doesn’t boast his ex-rotation mate’s gaudy strikeout totals and has played the Robin to Sale’s Batman. That doesn’t diminish Quintana’s worth, as FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards spelled out:

Quintana might have been playing second fiddle to Sale the past few years, but the team trading for Quintana isn’t getting just a run-of-the-mill good starter. Jose Quintana is excellent, and there are plenty of reasons to think he’s going to keep pitching well for a while.

The price for Sale was always going to be higher than the price for Quintana. That said, there’s a credible argument that Quintana and his bargain contract should be nearly as attractive to teams looking for high-end pitching as Sale was.

Here’s the bottom line: Quintana is a durable ace entering his prime who is signed for way under market rate for the next four seasons.

Hyperbole aside, those don’t come around every day.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Kenley Jansen spent the weekend getting married in Curacao, per MLB.com’s Michael Clair. That explains the lack of fresh chatter concerning the offseason’s top remaining free agent. 

Soon, however, Jansen will select his big league bride. 

It could be the Los Angeles Dodgers, the only MLB team Jansen has ever known. It could be the Miami Marlins, who have thrown out a five-year, $80 million-plus offer, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan. 

Or, it could be the Washington Nationals, who are “making a push” for the All-Star closer, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. 

If Jansen signs with the Nats—and that’s a big “if”—it would shift the balance of power in the National League East. More specifically, it would put the division-rival New York Mets on notice: Make a move, or fall behind.

The Nationals have had an uneven winter to say the least. They lost closer Mark Melancon, who signed with the San Francisco Giants. They whiffed on southpaw Chris Sale, who landed on the Boston Red Sox. They came up short in an 11th-hour push to get All-Star reliever Wade Davis from the Kansas City Royals, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark.

When the Nats finally pulled the trigger on a trade, it was a lopsided swap for Chicago White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton that cost them right-handers Lucas Giolito (MLB.com‘s No. 1 pitching prospect), Reynaldo Lopez (MLB.com’s No. 8 pitching prospect) and 2016 first-round draft pick Dane Dunning.

Eaton might make Washington better in the short term, but as I argued, it was an overpay born of desperation. 

Landing Jansen, even at the stratospheric dollars he’s going to command, could redeem the Nationals and position them as clear favorites in the East—unless New York makes a countermove.

Washington’s offense is anchored by a core of second baseman Daniel Murphy, right fielder Bryce Harper and speedy budding star Trea Turner. The starting rotation features a strong top four in reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark. 

The bullpen, meanwhile, posted the second-best ERA (3.37) in MLB last year. That was with Melancon, whom the Nats acquired at the trade deadline. Jansen—whose 7.0 WAR between 2014 and 2016 ranks fourth-best in the game among relievers, per FanGraphs—could make Washington’s pen next-level elite over a full season.

OK, back to the Mets.

Unless you believe the Philadelphia Phillies’ rebuild is about to kick into overdrive, the Atlanta Braves will get some magical juju out of their new stadium or the Marlins will stop being the Marlins, New York is the Nationals’ closest competition out East.

Heck, the Amazin’s won the pennant in 2015. Last season was an injury-soaked disappointment, but they’re not far removed from top billing. Plus, they re-signed slugger Yoenis Cespedes, arguably the biggest bat on the market, and brought second baseman Neil Walker back for the qualifying offer.

At the same time, question marks are swirling in Queens, as ESPN.com’s Mark Simon noted:

At this point in the offseason, the currently composed Mets are a second-place team, in the middle of a crowded pack. Their best-case scenario might be another crack at Madison Bumgarner in the wild-card game.

The only certainty there, given the pitcher, would seem to be a rather unpleasant defeat.

Ouch. Too soon.

There is a glut in the outfield, with Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto and Juan Lagares all vying for playing time and payroll space.

Bruce is owed $13 million next season, and Granderson will make $15 million. Granderson is getting “more interest” in trade talks, per Newsday‘s Marc Carig. 

Either way, it’s clear the Mets need to move someone, both to loosen the logjam and free up some cash.

The Mets are about $10 million over their targeted Opening Day budget of $140 million, per Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News.

If they can unload an expensive outfielder—preferably Bruce, who sports an anemic .295 on-base percentage over the last three years—they could shake free enough capital to make another move.

Like, say, adding a bullpen arm to insure against closer Jeurys Familia’s possible domestic violence suspension. Or bolstering an offense that is counting on contributions from first baseman Lucas Duda and third baseman David Wright, both of whom have battled serious back injuries. 

Realistically, the Mets aren’t going to sign a reliever in the Jansen mold or a top-tier power bat such as Edwin Encarnacion, even if they shed payroll.

They don’t need to. The pitching rotation is the true X-factor. If Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler all return to health alongside Norse god Noah Syndergaard, New York will be right there. 

With Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo also in the mix, the club could roll with a six-man rotation.

“If it helps keep us healthy, then I am for it,” deGrom said, per Ackert. 

Still, the Mets should target at least one more impact player. On the free-agent market, a reliever such as Brad Ziegler could cushion the loss of Familia and strengthen the Mets’ pen overall.

Mike Napoli and Brandon Moss boast plus power and can play first base in case Duda doesn’t rebound. 

If New York manages to deal both Bruce and Granderson, it could go for an even bigger addition, though that seems unlikely.

For now, the Mets should be in wait-and-see mode. It’s the Nationals’ move.

If Washington manages to reel in Jansen, though, New York must be prepared to respond in kind. This is an arms race, plain and simple, and Tim Tebow won’t tip the scales.

All statistics courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The 2016 MLB winter meetings yanked multiple big-ticket free agents and trade targets off the board.

Ace lefty Chris Sale jumped from the Chicago White Sox to the Boston Red Sox. Mark Melancon shattered the record for a relief-pitcher contract, then Aroldis Chapman shattered it again—and so on. 

That’s the allure of the annual December confab. It invariably alters the offseason landscape.

Plenty of intriguing, game-changing names remain unsigned or untraded, though. The hot stove will keep crackling until the first spring thaw.

With that in mind, let’s re-rank the top 15 remaining trade and free-agent prizes, taking into consideration age, skill set, track record, position, price tag and/or contract status.

We’re also only considering trade candidates who have been featured in recent credible rumors, so some guys (like, say, Justin Verlander) didn’t make the cut.

Tap the clay off your cleats and proceed when ready.

Begin Slideshow

The Washington Nationals were quickly turning into the bridesmaids of the 2016 MLB offseason, and not in the charming, Kristen Wiig sense of the word.

Washington lost the bidding for closer Mark Melancon, who signed with the San Francisco Giants. They whiffed on Chris Sale, who landed on the Boston Red Sox. They came up short in an 11th-hour push to get All-Star reliever Wade Davis from the Kansas City Royals, with Davis going to the defending champion Chicago Cubs, per Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.

Now, at last, the Nats have a trade in place: They’re sending three pitching prospects—Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning—to the Chicago White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton, per Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago.

Unfortunately for the Nationals, it feels like a deal born of desperation—and one that could come back to haunt them sooner than later.

Giolito is the shiniest prize in the package headed to the South Side. The tall, 22-year-old right-hander is the No. 1 pitching prospect in the game, per MLB.com, and projects as a frontline starter who could be a part of Chicago’s rotation in 2017 after making his big league debut last season.

That alone would have been a steep price to pay. But Washington gilded the lily with Lopez, the No. 8 pitching prospect in baseball, and Dunning, the Nats’ first-round pick from this past summer’s amateur draft.

That’s three top-shelf arms to add to the White Sox’s growing haul of blue chips, which also includes the game’s top position prospect, Yoan Moncada, acquired from the Red Sox in the Sale trade.

Like Giolito, the 22-year-old Lopez could be a part of the Sox’s 2017 rotation. Lopez hasn’t generated as much buzz as Giolito, but he posted more strikeouts per nine innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season (10.4 to 9.1) and fewer walks per nine (2.9 to 3.4) before arriving to The Show and making an immediate impression. 

“It’s never easy to let go of your prospects,” Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo told reporters. “You feel like a proud daddy when they get to the big leagues.”

Taken in isolation, Eaton is a fine pickup. At 28 years old, he’s in the midst of his prime. He posted a robust .284/.362/.428 slash line last season with 14 home runs, 14 stolen bases and nine triples.

He was also the best defensive right fielder in either league, posting 22 defensive runs saved and a 23.1 ultimate zone rating, per FanGraphs. 

He’s locked into a Black Friday-esque contract that will pay him $18.4 million over the next three seasons, with a pair of club options that could extend the deal to a total of $38.4 million over five years. Needless to say, that’s below market rate.

Once you add some context, though, this gets worse for Washington.

A large share of Eaton’s value is tied to his defense. While he’s elite in right field, the Nats already have a guy there by the name of Bryce Harper (more on him in a moment).

Almost surely, the plan is to slide Eaton to center field and move speedy Rookie of the Year runner-up Trea Turner to shortstop.

The bad news? As a center fielder, Eaton owns a career minus-8 DRS and minus-21 UZR. You don’t need to know a defensive metric from a rosin bag to understand that isn’t good.

Even Eaton’s eminently affordable deal is less special on closer inspection. Getting him on the cheap for the next few seasons will be nice, but by the time his options kick in, he’ll be on the wrong side of 30. Players like him—guys who rely on their legs and have a tendency to collide with walls—don’t always age well.

That likewise puts a wet blanket on the idea of Eaton taking over in right field when Harper hits free agency after the 2018 season. It’s technically on the table, but will he still wield an above-average glove at that point?

Again, Eaton will provide value for Washington. The more you turn it around, though, the more this looks, walks and quacks like an overpay.

That seemed to be Harper’s initial reaction, if you want to read meaning into a one-word tweet:

To be fair, Harper tossed out congratulatory remarks a scant 14 minutes later: 

Maybe they were sincere; maybe it was damage control. We’ll likely never know. We’ll also never know if the Nationals could have gotten flawed-but-intriguing Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen, whom they were widely rumored to be chasing, for less.

Here’s something we do know: An unnamed Nats player texted Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal in a state of disbelief:

Rosenthal’s analysis is spot-on. The Nationals need a replacement for Melancon. Their options are dwindling. And they just spent an extra-large portion of their trade capital on a great defensive right fielder so they can stick him in center field, where he’s not so great. 

Maybe Giolito, Lopez and Dunning will all flame out. They wouldn’t be the first touted prospects to do so. Maybe Eaton’s high-energy style will be the missing ingredient that gets the Nationals over the hump after a string of disappointing postseason exits.

At the moment, though, this marriage appears to have come at far too high a cost for Washington.

Sometimes, it’s better to be the bridesmaid.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Not even the defending champs can rest on their laurels.

The Chicago Cubs aren’t, clearly, as they made their first big splash of the offseason Wednesday, acquiring All-Star closer Wade Davis from the Kansas City Royals, per Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.

It’s a simple, straight-up swap, with 24-year-old outfielder Jorge Soler going to Kansas City. That’s no small sacrifice for the Cubs, as we’ll delve into shortly.     

For now, though, let’s focus on what Chicago got: a replacement for free-agent flamethrower Aroldis Chapman and a nice dose of security at the back end of the bullpen.

Davis has been nothing short of elite since moving into a full-time relief role in 2014. During that span, he’s posted a 1.18 ERA with 11.53 strikeouts per nine innings next to just 2.91 walks per nine.

His 6.3 WAR from 2014 to 2016 ranks fifth among relief pitchers, behind only Dellin Betances, Chapman, Andrew Miller and Kenley Jansen, according to FanGraphs’ measure.

Then there’s Davis’ postseason pedigree. During the Royals’ deep runs of 2014 and 2015, Davis logged 25 mostly high-leverage innings, yielding just one earned run with 38 strikeouts and five walks. Here, check out some highlights of his six-out save in Game 4 of the 2015 Fall Classic:

If that reminds you of the work guys such as Miller, Chapman and Jansen did in the 2016 playoffs, well, it should. Davis is cut from the same cloth. He’s got the stuff and the fortitude to play the role of super-reliever.

He’s also got familiarity with Chicago skipper Joe Maddon, who was his manager from 2009 to 2012 with the Tampa Bay Rays, when Davis was mostly a starter.

As the Cubs edged close to acquiring Davis on Tuesday night, the Washington Nationals swooped in with a “late push,” per ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. 

Chicago ultimately won out by cashing in Soler. That stings. The young Cuban is under team control for four more years and is loaded with raw tools. His production has declined since an eye-opening debut in 2014, when he posted a .903 OPS in 24 games, but he has the potential to develop into a high-caliber offensive player.

The Cubs could afford to jettison him because of an outfield depth chart that features Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Albert Almora Jr., Matt Szczur and newly signed Jon Jay, plus reigning National League MVP Kris Bryant.

For all his talent, Soler was a spare part, as ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers spelled out:

The trade really comes down to the multiple years of control with Soler versus the one year for Davis. If you’re a Cubs fan, ask yourself this: Who’s likely to have a bigger impact on the team in 2017 — a part-time outfielder or the closer on the reigning world champions? We know Davis is going to see a lot of action; we can’t say the same about Soler…

Davis comes with some risk and downside. He’ll be a free agent after next season, so he’s something of a rental, though the Cubs could try to hammer out an extension. He battled injuries last season and landed on the disabled list twice with a strained forearm. His average fastball velocity dipped slightly, from 95.8 in 2015 to 95.0.

He finished the season on a high note, however, tallying six saves and fanning 15 in his final 9.2 innings.

Assuming the health issues are behind him, the $10 million he’s owed in 2017 could be a relative bargain. Mark Melancon already broke the record for a relief-pitcher contract when he got four years and $62 million with the San Francisco Giants. Chapman and Jansen will surely blow past that total when they find homes.

The Cubs have other solid arms in the pen, including Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon and Carl Edwards Jr. With Chapman out the door, though, this was one of the few areas where Chicago could upgrade.

“You’re always looking to augment bullpens,” Maddon said, per MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat. “I think every organization, after this past postseason, is looking to re-invent their bullpens in different ways based on how we utilized ours.”

Added general manager Jed Hoyer, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, “The more relievers you can add, the more we can add that late and have multiple weapons, the better.”

Davis is a weapon. Now, he’s in the Cubs’ holster. 

The champs, in other words, aren’t resting on their laurels. 

All statistics and contract information courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If we were going to slap a pun-tastic headline on Day 2 of the 2016 MLB winter meetings, it would be: Chris Sale Changes Sox. 

Ba, dum…cha.

After much anticipation and speculation, the Chicago White Sox dealt the ace left-hander to the Boston Red Sox, shifting the balance of power in the American League and taking one of the biggest trade targets off the board.

Tuesday wasn’t all about Sale, of course. Other deals went down—including the Red Sox adding a bat and trading for a reliever—and more rumors and rumblings flew at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland.

The possibility of late-night machinations remains. For now, let’s round up and analyze the day’s action, from the big Sale-off to the most intriguing chatter. 

Begin Slideshow

To begin, a mea culpa: I predicted Chris Sale would remain a member of the Chicago White Sox until at least the 2017 trade deadline.

Sure, Sale is still on the Sox’s payroll as I type these words, but the rumblings from the winter meetings Monday indicated he’s likely to swap uniforms.

If so, he’ll become the meetings’ landscape-altering figure and possibly the biggest game-changer of the entire offseason.

First, the latest rumors. There is a “legitimate chance” Sale will be dealt to the Washington Nationals, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. Right-hander Lucas Giolito and outfielder Victor Robles—the Nats’ No. 1 and No. 2 prospects respectively, per MLB.com—are included in the talks, Rosenthal added.

That tells you where the White Sox’s demands sit—namely, somewhere north of the mesosphere.

Washington isn’t the only club sniffing around. The Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves are also in the mix, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman adds the Boston Red Sox to the Sale sweepstakes as well.

Wherever he lands, Sale will have a Richter scale-jolting impact.

The 27-year-old five-time All-Star has eclipsed 200 strikeouts in each of the last four seasons and thrown more than 200 innings in three of them. He’s finished among the top six in American League Cy Young balloting every year since 2012.

He’s averaged 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings since his debut in 2010, the sixth-highest total among active pitchers.

Adding another layer of whipped cream to the stud-flavored sundae, he’s under contract for the next three seasons—for $12 million in 2017, a $12.5 million team option in 2018 and a $13.5 million team option in 2019.

Pitchers of Sale’s age, pedigree and affordability don’t slide onto the trading block often. To find a reasonable comparison, you might have to go all the way back to November 1997, when the Montreal Expos sent 26-year-old Pedro Martinez to the Red Sox for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr.

That’s a cautionary tale, obviously, considering Pavano and Armas failed to transform the Expos, and Pedro did a few memorable things in Beantown, if memory serves.

That’s not to say Chicago shouldn’t move Sale. The White Sox endured their fourth consecutive losing season in 2016, going 78-84 and finishing 16.5 games out in the AL Central.

If they can swap Sale for a bevy of blue-chip talent, they should take the plunge.

Chicago can be picky. The pool of free-agent starting pitchers is vanishingly shallow, especially now that the Los Angeles Dodgers have re-upped Rich Hill for three years and $48 million, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times.

Hill will turn 37 in March and has a checkered injury history. Los Angeles just inked him through his age-39 season for an average annual value of $16 million.

That tells you all you need to know about Sale’s sticker price.

“You have to have four prospects who can’t possibly miss,” White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said of dealing his ace, per CSN Chicago’s Chuck Garfien.

The Nationals could meet that threshold even without moving speedy budding star Trea Turner. Slotting Sale into their starting five next to reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg would put Washington on par with the defending champion Chicago Cubs.

Boston, likewise, has the requisite MiLB ammunition and could pair Sale with fellow southpaw David Price and AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello.

Because of his slender frame and unusual mechanics, there’s some concern Sale could succumb to injuries.

“He reminds you of Tim Lincecum,” an unnamed rival evaluator said, per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney. “When Lincecum was drafted, everybody wondered: OK, how long can this little thin guy keep throwing that hard? He was great for a while, and then his performance declined dramatically.”

White Sox general manager Rick Hahn dismissed the notion.

“Come on,” Hahn told reporters. “Did you see what this guy has done in our uniform over the years? We’re as excited to have Chris Sale in our uniform today as the day we drafted him. And [we] realize this is an elite-level talent, a rare commodity in this league and a great, great competitor.”

Anywhere he winds up, Sale will tilt the balance of power.

He’s not the only interesting storyline at these winter meetings. Other marquee names could move via trade, including Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen, Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer and the Detroit Tigers’ trove of veteran talent.

Sale, however, is the biggest domino out there. He’s teetering. And, contrary to my prior prognostication, he’s likely to fall.

If and when he does, you’d better believe it’ll make a sound.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

If the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center in National Harbor, Maryland, had a slogan, it’d be “ready, set, go.”

It’s the scene of baseball’s 2016 winter meetings, after all, which kick off in earnest Monday and run through Thursday. With a new labor deal in place and a clutter of high-profile free agents and trade targets on the board, it figures to be a transaction-packed few days.

Imagine the collective bargaining negotiations as a cork and the offseason market as a roiling bottle of your favorite carbonated beverage. Any moment now, it’s going to pop.

To wet your whistle and/or whet your appetite, here are some final predictions and teams to watch based on the latest rumors and rumblings, plus a dollop of educated gut feeling.

Prediction: The Los Angeles Dodgers Will Sign Rich Hill

Rich Hill is the closest thing to an ace in a comically shallow free-agent pool. He’s also 36 years old and has a shaky injury history. Regardless, someone is going to give him multiple years and a lot of dollars.

The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are all in “full pursuit” of Hill, per ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden. Any of the four makes sense, but Los Angeles is the front-runner.

On Saturday, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweeted the Dodgers and Hill were “closing in on [a] multi-year deal.” These things can fall apart up to the moment the John Hancock meets the contract. The dots connect, though.

Los Angeles needs another arm to join Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda atop an otherwise-muddled starting rotation. The Dodgers have money to spend despite reports of debt-related financial constraints.

Plus, Hill was a success in his limited L.A. audition, posting a 1.83 ERA in six starts and picking up a win in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series.

Anything past a two-year deal would be dicey, but tacking on an option and/or some incentives could be enough to get it done.

Team to Watch: New York Yankees

These aren’t your father’s Yankees. Heck, they’re not even your older brother’s Yankees.

The Yanks are in rebuild mode, sort of, jettisoning veterans and stockpiling young, cost-controlled talent. They initiated the strategy at the 2016 trade deadline and continued it when they dealt catcher Brian McCann to the Astros in November.

There are other possible trade targets on the roster, including outfielder Brett Gardner, so don’t be shocked if New York further bolsters a farm system that’s already No. 1 in the game, per Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter.

That said, the Yankees signed 36-year-old outfielder Matt Holliday to a one-year, $13 million deal Sunday, per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, and they might just be getting started.

They’ve been heavily linked to closer Aroldis Chapman, whom they acquired last December and dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline.

“I would love to be a Yankee again,” Chapman told NY Sports Day’s Ray Negron in November.

They could also be in on Edwin Encarnacion, the best free-agent power hitter since the New York Mets re-signed Yoenis Cespedes.

New York is “well-positioned to make a play” for Encarnacion, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Encarnacion‘s agent, Paul Kinzer, told Joel Sherman of the New York Post his client is “likely” to find a home during the winter meetings.

Giving multiple years and something approaching nine figures to the 33-year-old would be a departure from the club’s recent M.O.

The Yankees are always looking to win now, however, and Encarnacion‘s 40-homer pop would slot nicely into the middle of their youthful lineup. He’d serve as a designated hitter in the Bronx—possibly sharing time with Holliday—but he’d also provide insurance at first base, where Greg Bird is returning from shoulder surgery.

Prediction: The San Francisco Giants Will Break the Elite-Closer Logjam

Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon—the offseason’s game-changing closers—remain unsigned entering Monday.

It says here that will change during the meetings and that the San Francisco Giants will be the team to change it.

San Francisco was undone by its pen last season, and three of the team’s top relievers—Santiago Casilla, Sergio Romo and Javier Lopez—are free agents.

General manager Bobby Evans said the Giants “like all of the options” when it comes to the bullpen Big Three of Chapman, Jansen and Melancon, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

Melancon, however, is the most plausible target. He’ll be a bit cheaper than Chapman or Jansen, and the Giants also have a hole to plug in left field.

The 31-year-old Melancon has multiple offers of four years and $60 million-plus, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. One is from the Giants, Rosenthal added, and it is “thought to be [the] strongest.”

Other clubs are circling the reliever pool, including the Yankees, Dodgers and Miami Marlins, who have made Jansen their “top target,” per Heyman. That’s a bit of a head-scratcher given Miami’s situation, but, well, they’re the Marlins.

The Giants’ need is greatest, however, and they’ll carry that sense of urgency to National Harbor.

Team to Watch: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are coming off a 93-loss campaign and a last-place finish in the National League East. They’re also looking to get some good mojo flowing as they move into a shiny new ballpark in 2017.

That could mean adding a free agent such as catcher Matt Wieters, a four-time All-Star and Georgia Tech alum.

It could also mean pulling the trigger on a big trade. They were in on Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale but balked at the asking price of shortstop and top prospect Dansby Swanson, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman.

Atlanta has also inquired about Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer, but the Rays’ demands are likewise too high, per Bowman.

The fact the Braves have put loafer to Goodyear on such high-profile arms shows they’re serious about accelerating the rebuild and contending sooner rather than later.

Even if they stick to their guns on Swanson, they’ve got six other prospects among the game’s top 100, according to MLB.com, which should be enough to swing a blockbuster.

Speaking of which…

Prediction: There Will Be a Blockbuster Trade

A weak free-agent class almost always means a robust trade market, and this year will be no exception.

In addition to Sale and Archer, the Detroit Tigers have indicated they’re willing to sell off expensive veterans from a group that includes second baseman Ian Kinsler, outfielder J.D. Martinez, two-time American League MVP Miguel Cabrera and ace Justin Verlander.

Then there’s Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen, another former MVP who could be on the move.

The Bucs and Washington Nationals are “working on a lot of different angles” to get a deal done, per Bowden. The Nats even think they may have the pieces to trade for McCutchen and Sale, per USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale.

McCutchen is coming off a down year in which he posted a career-worst .766 OPS, but the 30-year-old possesses elite talent and is under contract for a relatively reasonable $14 million in 2017 with a $14.75 million option for 2018. He’ll draw plenty of interest.

The lack of free-agent starting pitchers means the White Sox, Rays, Tigers and any other sellers can keep the price tags for their studs in the stratosphere. Thus, a seismic trade for a position player—possibly McCutchen—is more likely to happen at the meetings.

Either way, look for All-Star MLB talent and blue-chip prospects to change uniforms.

All together now: Ready, set, go.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A scant three weeks before Christmas, the New York Yankees signed Matt Holliday for one year and $13 million, per Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball. 

I will spare you the painfully obvious holiday/Holliday puns.

It’s a solid move for the Yanks, who are in the midst of a youth movement but also seeking to win now.

New York whiffed on outfielder/designated hitter Carlos Beltran when he signed with the Houston Astros for one year and $16 million on Saturday.

The Yankees dealt Beltran to the Texas Rangers at the 2016 trade deadline, but according to Heyman, they were interested in bringing the veteran switch-hitter back. 

Now, they have his ostensible replacement—a veteran bat with bona fide big-game credentials.

The Yankees’ emphasis is on shedding costly flotsam and adding cost-controlled depth. In addition to Beltran, they moved ace relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller at the deadline and restocked a farm system that’s now No. 1 in the game, per Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter.

At the same time, they’ve got an unspoken mandate to stay competitive and dance back onto the October stage as quickly as possible. 

Holliday doesn’t guarantee that will happen. He posted a less than stellar .246/.322/.461 slash line last season for the St. Louis Cardinals in 110 games. Injuries limited him to just 73 games in 2015.

On the other hand, he’s a seven-time All-Star who won a ring in 2011 and has 302 playoff plate appearances to his name. The 20 home runs he cracked in 2016 suggest there’s pop residing in his bat. 

He can play the outfield and may see time there if New York trades Brett Gardner. His defense, however, has taken a serious dive.

At this point, he projects best at DH or first base, where he got nine starts last season. That meets the Yankees’ needs, especially with first baseman Greg Bird coming off major shoulder surgery.

Getting reps at DH and playing the bulk of his games in the hitter-happy American League East could give Holliday a late-career bump.

He also won’t cost New York a draft pick since St. Louis didn’t offer him arbitration.

“Our preference is to retain a draft pick if we can,” general manager Brian Cashman said, per George A. King III and Dan Martin of the New York Post. “We have a certain amount of money we want to allocate to allow us to do a number of different things.”

One of those things could be closer Aroldis Chapman, whom the Yankees acquired last December and dealt to the Chicago Cubs at the deadline.

“I would love to be a Yankee again,” Chapman told NY Sports Day’s Ray Negron in November. 

Chapman could command a deal in the vicinity of nine figures, which makes Holliday a more prudent signing than, say, Edwin Encarnacion.

The Yankees were “well-positioned to make a play” for Encarnacion, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. Now, with Holliday in the fold, they may pass on the 33-year-old slugger, who came with draft-pick compensation and an unavoidable jolt of sticker shock.

Ditching long-term monetary commitments aligns with a grander vision, as ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand spelled out:

Will [Holliday] be good in 2017? Who knows? Will the Yankees be good in 2017? No one knows that, either. But if Holliday is solid, it could be a big lift for this bridge year as the Yankees try to reload and rebuild toward 2019, which is when the Yankees’ next “uber” (trademark, Brian Cashman) team might be ready to add Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado and others.

Getting back to the here and now with Holliday, there are reasons for optimism that go beyond the DH and AL East. There were hints of bad luck in his 2016 stat line, per ESPN The Magazine‘s Buster Olney:

New York has work to do. It needs to add arms to a rotation that features Masahiro Tanaka and a heap of question marks. It needs to go hard after Chapman or explore other avenues to give Dellin Betances company in the late innings.

Holliday, though, can be the cherry on top of a sundae that includes catcher and AL Rookie of the Year runner-up Gary Sanchez, 24-year-old masher Aaron Judge and a host of MiLB up-and-comers. 

Whether the Yankees can win the division depends on what further moves they make and what becomes of their competition. The Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles all made the playoffs in 2016 and are looking to improve.

But, at the risk of straining the Holliday/holiday comparison, the Yanks just opened a nicely wrapped package—and checked an item off their wish list.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com