Kuzul

The 2018-19 MLB offseason is going to be epic. Epic enough, in fact, to justify the use of that played-out adjective.

A galaxy of the game’s brightest stars will hit the market. Front offices will throw around enough cash to exceed the gross domestic product of a few small nations.

MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince was already craning his neck toward the 2018-19 offseason in December 2015:

The continued escalation of baseball salaries can be hard for the common fan to wrap his or her head around, yet because of how rare it is for a premier player to reach the open market in his prime years, it’s the cost of doing business.

But here’s the deal about these deals: You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Just wait until three years from now, when the free-agent pool looks to go from deep to downright historic.

As Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan put it, “There is a historic confluence of talent and money coming, and it’s going to influence every single move of consequence made not just today but following the 2016 and ’17 seasons, too.”

Assuming neither signs an extension before then, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will be available as they enter their age-26 seasons. By itself, that makes the hitting class a glistening treasure trove.  

Add ancillary names such as Josh Donaldson, Daniel Murphy, Brian Dozier and Adam Jones, and the offensive pickings are inarguably impressive.

What about the starting pitching? That’s where the hype could exceed the haul. 

In fact, the closer you peer at the 2018-19 starting pitching pool, the shallower it looks.

We begin on a somber note: That’s the offseason Jose Fernandez would have hit free agency (assuming, as in all these cases, the Miami Marlins didn’t lock him up first).

Fernandez, like Harper and Machado, would have been entering his age-26 season. He paced qualified MLB starters with 12.5 strikeouts per nine innings in 2016 and seemed poised to elevate his already enviable game to the next plateau.

Now, after his tragic death in a September boating accident, we’re left with a heap of regrets and unanswerable what-ifs.

To be fair, there could be other ace-level arms on the market. The gaudiest name is Clayton Kershaw, who could pull the opt-out ripcord after the 2018 season.

He’ll be entering his age-30 season, and he missed more than two months with a serious back injury in 2016. At the same time, he posted a 1.69 ERA with 172 strikeouts in 149 innings. The three-time National League Cy Young Award winner and one-time NL MVP could well command a ludicrous contract.

It’s nearly impossible, however, to imagine the Los Angeles Dodgers letting Kershaw get away. He is the face of the franchise. The Dodgers are the only big league club he’s ever known and, much like Buster Posey with the San Francisco Giants, they are likely to be the only big league club he ever does know, at least until his prime is fully spent.

Odds are Kershaw‘s opt-out will merely be a chance to negotiate a raise, with the deep-pocketed Dodgers dutifully paying up.

If Fernandez and Kershaw are off the table, who does that leave?

There’s 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel, but he took a huge stumble back last season, posting a 4.55 ERA.

There’s New York Mets right-hander Matt Harvey, but he’s coming off a 4.86 ERA and surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.

David Price could opt out of his deal with the Boston Red Sox. That’s no guarantee, however, after Price surrendered an MLB-leading 227 hits in his first season in Beantown. Even if he does opt out, Price will be entering his age-33 season, making any long-term pact problematic. 

Cole Hamels could be available if the Texas Rangers don’t exercise his $20 million option, but he’ll turn 35 in December 2018.

There are other interesting names on the list, courtesy of Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors, including Garrett Richards and Carlos Carrasco, but none that leap out as can’t-miss options worthy of bank-busting megadeals.

Add it up and you have less of a once-in-a-generation gold mine and more of a hodgepodge of aging veterans and reclamation projects.

What’s the point of all this, other than a little simmering speculation to supplant the waning hot stove? At the least, it should be a wakeup call to teams planning to hoard their resources for post-2018.

Take the New York Yankees, who have restocked their farm system and have a glut of money set to come off the books. 

The Yanks should absolutely position themselves to be players for Harper and Machado, and possibly both. As they look to the rotation, however, they’d be wise to consider other avenues, including Chicago White Sox southpaw Jose Quintana, who is inked through 2020 with a pair of club options.

New York may have already gotten the message. It has been among the “most aggressive teams” on Quintana, per USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale. 

Whether that happens, the point stands: Franchises with starting pitching needs putting all their eggs in the 2018-19 basket should reconsider.

“With God as my witness, I don’t know who is in the 2018 free-agent class,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said in March, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. 

If you believe that, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. When it comes to arms, though, it’s probably the right mentality for Cashman and MLB’s other 29 GMs to adopt.

Otherwise, the most epic part of that distant, fabled winter pitching class could be the letdown.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Starting in center field for the New York Mets…Andrew McCutchen.

Your reaction to that sentence—assuming you’re a Mets fan—likely depends on your feelings about risk versus reward. Because, boy, does McCutchen offer plenty of both.

McCutchen is a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates as of this writing. His name has churned through the rumor mill this offseason, however, with the Washington Nationals and Toronto Blue Jays among his reported suitors. 

After the winter meetings, Pirates general manager Neal Huntington expressed a desire to keep McCutchen in black and yellow.

“Our intent coming in here was to have Andrew McCutchen in our lineup going forward. No one changed that,” Huntington said, per MLB.com’s Adam Berry. “It’s unlikely that someone changes that going forward. We’re not going to close the door, but we’re not going to be making calls.”

There’s wiggle room in that statement. McCutchen may not be on the clearance shelf, but he’s available for the right price.

The Mets have spoken with Pittsburgh about McCutchen at a “preliminary level,” as Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported. 

There’s no indication those talks have advanced past the tire-kicking stage, but it’s worth exploring whether it would be a prudent move for New York.

On the reward side, McCutchen is a 30-year-old former National League MVP and five-time All-Star who accumulated 27.9 WAR between 2012 and 2015, second only to Mike Trout by FanGraphs‘ measure. 

He’s also not a budget-buster, as he’s due $14 million next season with a $14.5 million team option and $1 million buyout for 2018. 

If he approximates his peak production, that would be a bargain. The key word being “if.”

McCutchen is coming off a disappointing season that saw him post career lows in batting average (.256), on-base percentage (.336) and slugging percentage (.430). 

Even more damningly, his defensive numbers plummeted. He posted minus-28 defensive runs saved and a minus-18.7 UZR, both career worsts.

It’s not an anomalous blip, either. McCutchen‘s defense has been trending downward since 2013 according to the metrics. It’s reasonable to ask if he’s even a center fielder anymore, forget about a good one.

That’s a big deal for the Amazin’s, because they need a center fielder, as Rosenthal outlined:

The Mets’ biggest position need is obvious.

They’ve got Yoenis Cespedes in left field. They’ve got Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto as options in right. But their only true center fielder is Juan Lagares, whose career OPS against right-handed pitching—even after showing some improvement last season—is only .633.

To clear room for McCutchen in the outfield and on the payroll, the Mets could trade Granderson and/or Bruce, who are owed $15 million and $13 million next season, respectively. 

That leaves the question of whether McCutchen can capably patrol center, or at least rake enough to make up for his inconsistent glove work. 

Again, he’s only 30. If he hits like he did as recently as 2015, he’d provide ample value for a Mets team that scored the fifth-fewest runs in baseball last season.

“I can’t wait to get my feet back there on the field, get ready and show that I’m not washed up, I guess,” McCutchen said, per Berry. “I’m only 30. It’s not like I’m 40. And even that is possible, too—see what Papi [David Ortiz] did. Anything is possible in this game.”

Norse god/staff ace Noah Syndergaard is coming off a superlative season. If at least three of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler return healthy and productive, the Mets’ starting pitching will be elite.

Add a top-tier bat, and suddenly another NL pennant seems attainable.

Let’s set aside the defensive concerns. Let’s assume McCutchen will bounce back with the lumber, at least to the tune of the .283/.378/.470 slash line Steamer projects. 

What would it take for New York to get him?

A “possible deal” between Washington and Pittsburgh for McCutchen involved Lucas Giolito, the top pitching prospect in baseball according to MLB.com, as well as 2016 first-round pick Dane Dunning and a third player, per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman. 

That means New York may need to dangle shortstop Amed Rosario, MLB.com’s No. 11 overall prospect, plus a couple of high-upside ancillary pieces, assuming the Pirates’ asking price hasn’t budged.

That type of gut-the-farm machination makes sense if you’re in full-blown win-now mode. 

The Mets aren’t necessarily in that mode, though. Matt Harvey is the first of their core starting pitchers set to hit the market, and that won’t happen until after the 2018 season. The same goes for closer Jeurys Familia. 

They re-upped Cespedes through 2020. There are nice young pieces on the roster, including the 23-year-old Conforto and 27-year-old catcher Travis d’Arnaud.

Mortgaging the future for the hope that McCutchen can play a passable center field, rediscover his MVP stroke and get New York over the championship finish line seems like an overreach born of desperation. 

NJ.com’s Joe Giglio made the case for the Mets going all-in on McCutchen over other theoretically available outfielders such as the Kansas City Royals‘ Lorenzo Cain and the Colorado Rockies‘ Charlie Blackmon. 

New York, Giglio argued, “should take a risk and move the moon and stars [relatively speaking] for McCutchen.”

It’s intriguing. It has a certain ring. If you think the Mets’ window is about to slam shut, it may even seem necessary.

But, boy, does it also sound like a big-time risk in the making.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs and MLB.com.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Offseason plans can change in a hurry. Just ask the Pittsburgh Pirates.

At the winter meetings, there were rumblings the Pirates were sellers. Specifically, they were shopping center fielder and former franchise cornerstone Andrew McCutchen. 

Trade rumors are still swirling around the 2013 National League MVP. On Thursday, though, the Bucs became buyers, inking right-hander Ivan Nova to a three-year, $26 million deal, according to FanRag Sports’ Robert Murray.

Nova is a modest splash. But couple his signing with word that Pittsburgh has “worked hard” to trade for Chicago White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana, per ESPN The Magazine‘s Buster Olney, and you have the makings of an all-in strategy.

Why not?

Sure, the Pirates finished a disappointing 78-83 last season and missed the playoffs after three consecutive wild-card berths. 

No, Pittsburgh will never win an arms race in the NL Central with the defending champion Chicago Cubs, who have a bigger budget and a galaxy of young stars.

This team can contend, though. Another crack at the Wild Card Game is within reach, provided the Pirates stay aggressive.

Pittsburgh’s offense is more than adequate. Despite a down year from McCutchen—who posted a career-low .766 OPS—the Pirates finished sixth in the NL in runs (729) and fifth in batting average (.257).

A bounce-back year from McCutchen, assuming the Pirates keep him, could vault the lineup into the NL’s upper echelon. 

The bullpen ranked fifth in the NL with a 3.57 ERA. The loss of closer Mark Melancon, whom the Pirates dealt at the 2016 trade deadline, diminished the relief corps, but it’s not a glaring weakness. And they added right-hander Daniel Hudson for two years and $11 million. 

Instead, Pittsburgh can concentrate its resources on forming a top-flight rotation.

Inking Nova was a solid first step. The 29-year-old Dominican posted an unspectacular 4.17 ERA last season. But he upped his game after a deadline swap from the New York Yankees to Pittsburgh, going 5-2 with a 3.06 ERA in 64.2 innings.

After six-plus up-and-down seasons in the Bronx, Nova looked comfortable in black and yellow. 

“I don’t want to leave this clubhouse, to be honest,” he said in late September, per Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Now he doesn’t have to. He rejoins a rotation fronted by ace Gerrit Cole, who dealt with a triceps strain last season but was an All-Star and top-five NL Cy Young Award finisher in 2015.

With promising young right-handers Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow also in the mix, the Pirates already have the makings of a stout starting five.

Quintana, however, could join Cole and Nova to form a legitimate Big Three.

The 27-year-old southpaw has eclipsed 200 innings in each of the past four campaigns. Last season, he posted a career-best 3.20 ERA. If you like WAR, between 2013 and 2016, Quintana’s 18.1 mark ranked seventh among pitchers by FanGraphs’ measure. 

Most intriguingly for the budget-conscious Bucs, Quintana is locked into an affordable contract. His deal will pay him $7 million in 2017 and $8.85 million in 2018, followed by a $10.5 million team option in 2019 and an $11.5 million club option in 2020.

That said, he won’t come cheap. The White Sox asked for the Houston Astros‘ top two prospects plus another MLB-ready arm in exchange for Quintana, per baseball insider Peter Gammons. 

That means the Pirates would likely have to part with Glasnow, their No. 1 prospect, plus either outfielder/No. 2 prospect Austin Meadows or first baseman/No. 3 prospect Josh Bell and a high-upside ancillary piece. 

It’s a huge ask. Quintana is a huge get. That’s how these things work.

The Pirates’ win-now window remains open. With the Cubs representing the class of the division and the St. Louis Cardinals always lurking, however, the Pirates can’t afford to hang back, as Sean Gentille of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wrote:

If the Pirates feel good about their chances from now until 2019 — that is, if they feel like they said they’d feel a few years ago — they’ll keep McCutchen and actually go get Quintana. They won’t just try. They’ll make the choice to maximize whatever shot, as currently constituted, they’ve got left. They’ll do right by their fans. They’ll, you know, get better.

Re-upping Nova made them a bit better. Trading for Quintana would make them a lot better. Toss in Cole and an above-average offense and you have a postseason contender.

A few weeks ago, the Bucs appeared to be sellers. Now it’s time for them to adjust their sails.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted. Prospect ratings by MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America have until Dec. 31 to submit their Hall of Fame ballots, and the results will be announced Jan. 6.

It’s not too early to stack up odds for the 2017 class, though, using past trends and exit polling of BBWAA voters as a guide.

There are no first-ballot locks in this group. There are, however, several guys who should keep their schedules clear for the July 30 induction ceremony, including a perennial HOF also-ran in his final year of eligibility. 

Voters will once again wrestle with Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, statistical titans stained by the steroid era, and they’ll consider a handful of borderline cases sure to spark debate.

Feel free to sound off with your picks in the comments, and proceed when ready. 

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The Boston Red Sox cleared their starting-pitching logjam Tuesday by trading Clay Buchholz to the Philadelphia Phillies, per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman.

The Phils, as Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported, sent minor league infielder Josh Tobias to Boston and assumed all of Buchholz’s $13.5 million salary in 2017.

The Red Sox got salary relief. The Phillies got a talented-if-flawed lottery ticket. There are question marks and causes for handwringing, as we’ll delve into shortly. From here, though, it looks like a win-win.

Boston selected Buchholz 42nd overall in 2005 with the compensatory pick they received after Pedro Martinez signed with the New York Mets. He debuted in 2007 and twirled a no-hitter against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park in his second start.

Needless to say, the Beantown faithful had high hopes.

Buchholz showed flashes throughout his 10 seasons with Boston. He made two All-Star teams, in 2010 and 2013, and finished sixth in American League Cy Young Award balloting in 2010, when he led the majors with a 187 ERA+.

Injuries, however, took their toll. Buchholz never threw more than 189.1 innings in a season. Before 2016, he went to the disabled list seven times in his career with the Red Sox. In 2016, he was temporarily bumped from the rotation and finished with a 4.78 ERA in 139.1 frames.

He’s a mixed bag—no argument there—and he’s the poster boy for the “injury-prone” label.

There are causes for optimism, though. Buchholz’s average fastball sat at 92.1 mph in 2016—right around his career average of 92.7 mph. He also finished on a strong note, winning five of six decisions and posting a 2.86 ERA in his final 56.2 innings.

“He’s pitching his best baseball of this year at the right time for us,” Red Sox skipper John Farrell said in early September, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “You can’t give Clay enough credit. … I’m very proud of him. Proud of the resiliency he has shown.”

Buchholz became expendable after the Red Sox acquired ace Chris Sale from the Chicago White Sox to join a rotation headlined by reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello, David Price and knuckleballer Steven Wright.

Boston could have traded another arm, such as lefty Drew Pomeranz, and likely gotten a better return in prospects. The 24-year-old Tobias, who played at High-A last season, profiles as a fringe big leaguer at best.

Boston, however, gave itself some payroll flexibility. It’s unlikely the Red Sox will use that money now, but it could come in handy if they want to add a veteran piece at the deadline and may protect them from luxury-tax penalties.

The Phillies, likewise, have a crowded rotation that features Jeremy Hellickson, Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola and Vincent Velasquez, with Alec Asher, Zach Eflin, and Jake Thompson also in the mix.

Buchholz could slot into the bullpen. Considering his price tag, however, Philadelphia will surely give him a shot to crack the rotation.

The obvious question is why the Phillies, a young team in the midst of a rebuild, want an expensive one-year rental.

It’s actually part of a pattern. Philadelphia also acquired veteran infielder/outfielder Howie Kendrick and reliever Pat Neshek this winter—who each have one year left on their contracts—and signed reliever Joaquin Benoit to a one-year pact.

The idea, possibly, is to see if these veteran pieces can mesh with the Phillies’ young core and vault the club into contention in the National League East. Philadelphia finished 71-91 last season but played .500 ball through May. They’re a team on the rise.

If the Phils are fading by the trade deadline, they can dangle their veteran rentals.

Buchholz won’t have much value if he gets hurt or flounders. That’s what makes it a gamble. If he stays off the disabled list and pitches like he did down the stretch in 2016, however, he could bring back a far greater prospect package in late July than he cost the Phillies in mid-December.

As for the money, the Phillies have enough inexpensive pieces on their roster to offset Buchholz’s price tag. Plus, they’re locked into a 25-year, $2.5 billion TV deal.

Getting back to the Red Sox: As enigmatic as he was, Buchholz was their longest-tenured pitcher. In fact, with Buchholz gone, only one member of the Boston roster has been around since 2012, as MLB.com’s Ian Browne pointed out:

It’s the end of the era, even if it was a frequently frustrating era. That deserves at least a passing mention. Buchholz pitched on a World Series winner in 2013, and he’ll always have that rookie no-no.

Now, the Red Sox get to move on. And the Phillies get a chance to see if they can figure Buchholz out.

It’s an intriguing, bittersweet proposition with win-win possibilities.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Early in the offseason, the Detroit Tigers hung up a “For Sale” sign. Turns out when you flip it over it says “Just Kidding!”

OK, that’s an exaggeration.

First, the winter isn’t over. Detroit could still offload one or more of its tradeable veteran assets. Plus, the Tigers never committed to a full-scale fire sale.

“I’ve talked to all the guys—[Miguel] Cabrera and [Justin] Verlander and [Ian] Kinsler and guys like that—just to let them know, Hey this is just the way it is and it’s part of the business but not to worry about anything unless I call them,” Detroit general manager Al Avila said Nov. 8 on MLB Now (via MLB.com).

That’s not a promise to sell, sell, sell. It sure sounds like a GM who’s prepared to entertain offers, though.

Instead, it’s been silent as a Tesla in the Motor City. Yes, the Tigers sent center fielder Cameron Maybin to the Los Angeles Angels for minor league right-hander Victor Alcantara on Nov. 3.

All of their big pieces remain on the roster, however, and they seem increasingly likely to go for it in 2017.

That’s a mistake. There’s no other way to put it.

Sure, Detroit could sniff the playoffs. It won 86 games in 2016, good for second place in the American League Central. FanGraphs projects an 83-79 record for the Tigers in 2017 and another finish just outside the money.

The Central is winnable. The defending AL champion Cleveland Indians haven’t made any major offseason splashes. Neither have the Kansas City Royals, who could be sellers. The Chicago White Sox are definitely sellers, and the young Minnesota Twins took a big step back last season.

But with the Boston Red Sox stockpiling out East and the Houston Astros doing the same in the West, the Junior Circuit bar is being set.

Hanging around the fringe isn’t enough for Detroit. The Tigers aren’t some burgeoning up-and-comer; nor are they a franchise starved for a taste of the postseason.

Between 2011 and 2014, Detroit advanced to the playoffs four times, to the American League Championship Series three times and to the World Series once.

Add another unsuccessful trip to the Fall Classic in 2006, and Tigers fans have been treated to their share of October action in the past decade.

What they deserve now is either a full-bore run at the franchise’s first championship since 1984 or a strategic, unambiguous rebuild.

What they’re getting instead is the equivalent of treading water.

Detroit isn’t going to spend on any of this year’s first- or second-tier free-agents. That much is obvious.

To truly contend, the club needs to upgrade a bullpen that finished 24th in baseball with a 4.22 ERA. Yet the Tigers weren’t even an also-ran on top free-agent closers such as Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, and they haven’t made any impact relief additions.

They could also stand to fortify their rotation. Verlander is fresh off a superlative season that should have netted him the AL Cy Young Award, and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer is an exciting building block.

Right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, whom the Tigers signed for five years and $110 million last November, started strong but battled groin and neck injuries and finished with a 4.87 ERA.

Mike Pelfrey (5.07 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (5.87 ERA) are likewise questionable. Daniel Norris went 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA, but the 23-year-old left-hander also dealt with injuries and has yet to prove himself over a full season.

Detroit ranked fourth in the majors in OPS last season, but its offensive core is aging. Cabrera will turn 34 in April, and Victor Martinez will be 38 on Friday. Each played more than 150 games last season, but at some point, injuries and decline will hit.

Maybe it won’t be next year. Maybe the Tigers could make one more run if they bolstered their bullpen and rotation. They don’t have the monetary flexibility, though, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick noted:

When you can’t pony up for a backup catcher, it’s safe to say the budget’s busted.

Instead, Detroit should look to the White Sox and New York Yankees, who have unloaded veteran assets to shed payroll and restock their farm systems.

The Tigers’ farm, which Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 25 in the game in September, could use an infusion of talent.

Right fielder J.D. Martinez will be a free agent after this season. Kinsler is signed through 2017 with a team option for 2018. Their stock will likely never be higher.

Moving Verlander would be a trickier proposition. Given the paucity of pitching available this winter, though, it’s worth wondering what the Tigers could have gotten for their ace and whether they’ll regret not exploring it further.

Again, the offseason isn’t over. There’s time for Detroit to swing a swap or two. If the club is floundering at the trade deadline, the pressure to deal will increase.

Verlander, or Cabrera, might have as much value then as they do now. On the other hand, they might not. The same, and then some, goes for Kinsler and J.D. Martinez.

What the Tigers don’t want, and can’t afford, is to delay the inevitable until it’s too late. Painful as it is, when you hang up that “For Sale” sign, at a certain point you’ve got to keep it there.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Tampa Bay Rays don’t have to trade Chris Archer. If they do, they can demand the moon, the stars and a few spare celestial bodies.

According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays are seeking an even bigger package for Archer than the one the Boston Red Sox sent to the Chicago White Sox for Chris Sale.

To refresh your memory, that package was headlined by Yoan Moncada, the No. 1 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com. It also featured fireballer Michael Kopech (MLB.com’s No. 30 prospect), plus outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe (now the White Sox’s No. 9 prospect) and Victor Diaz, another hard-throwing MiLB arm.

That’s eye-popping, but it’s the going rate for an ace-level starter in his prime with years of affordable control.

That describes Sale. It also describes Archer.

Archer, who turned 28 in September, is six months older than Sale. Sale has accumulated a 16.6 WAR between 2014 and 2016, compared to Archer’s 11.5, by FanGraphs‘ measure.

But while Sale is signed for $38 million over the next three seasons—including a pair of team options—Archer is locked in for just over $39 million for five seasons. Archer’s deal, like Sale’s, includes a pair of team options—for $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021.

Next season, he’s due to make a shade under $5 million. In today’s market, that’s not merely affordable, it’s damn close to highway robbery. Plus, the extra two years of control help make up for any disparity in Sale’s and Archer’s stats.

Here’s the part where we talk about Archer’s 2016 season, which was uneven. In fact, if you glance at his 9-19 record and 4.02 ERA, you could argue he was downright mediocre.

There’s more to it than that, however. Archer struck out 233 in 201.1 innings. His 3.41 xFIP suggested a degree of bad luck. His average fastball velocity of 94.3 mph was virtually identical to his career mark of 94.5.

Most encouragingly, he put up a 3.25 ERA after the All-Star break.

“I think he simplified some things and realized ultimately he had to do a better job of throwing more strikes,” Rays skipper Kevin Cash said, per Topkin. “Whether it’s fastball, slider or changeup, it’s getting it over the plate. A lot of that, once you show a lineup or the first couple hitters that you’re willing to throw strikes, you open up a lot of avenues to get them out.”

He’s not broken, in other words. We’re talking about a guy who made the All-Star team and finished fifth in American League Cy Young Award voting in 2015. A return to form isn’t merely possible—given Archer’s second-half rebound and the lack of health or velocity red flags, it’s probable.

We’ve established he’s a shiny prize worth mortgaging at least a portion of the farm. Who has the prospects, and the need, to blow Tampa Bay away?

The Atlanta Braves have been linked to Archer at least since early November, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. 

It’s possible the Rays would demand shortstop Dansby Swanson, MLB.com’s No. 4 prospect and close to an untouchable asset.

But Atlanta could build a strong offer around another highly rated middle infielder: Ozzie Albies, a 19-year-old switch-hitter and MLB.com’s No. 12 prospect.

Albies hit .292 with 30 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A and has the tools and talent to match or even exceed Swanson’s ceiling.

To approximate what the Red Sox gave up for Sale, the Braves would likely have to part with two of their top pitching prospects. Like, say, southpaw Sean Newcomb (MLB.com’s No. 47 prospect) and right-hander Ian Anderson (MLB.com’s No. 77 prospect).

Toss in another lower-ranked chip with some upside, and you’re looking at an offer comparable to if not greater than the Sale bounty.

It would sting for Atlanta. No doubt fans who want to see the franchise rebuild with a homegrown foundation would balk.

As the Braves prepare to move into their new stadium in 2017, though, Archer would give them the franchise-defining stud they need. 

There are other potential matches. The Los Angeles Dodgers already re-signed Rich Hill to join Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda atop their rotation. But, well, insert the cliche about how you can never have too much pitching.

The Dodgers have a fertile farm headlined by top pitching prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger. Plus, Archer has connections to Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, from their days together in Tampa Bay.

Heck, the New York Yankees have the No. 1 farm system in baseball, according to Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter, and they need starting pitching. 

They appear committed to their youth movement and holding onto blue chips like outfielder Clint Frazier and shortstop Gleyber Torres. They also could be loath to trade top prospects within the division.

Then again, you never know. They’re the Yankees, after all.

The Rays are under no great pressure to move Archer now. They can hold out for a king’s ransom, and if they don’t get it, they can keep him at least until the trade deadline, when prospective buyers will be even more desperate.

Tampa Bay may choose to trade another starter, including Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post noted.

There are a lot of ways this could go, and many of them end with Archer remaining in central Florida for another half-season at least.

If and when the Rays let Archer go, it should be for a price that shifts the firmament. Recent bumps aside, he’s that kind of player.

All statistics and contract information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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It’s a story as old as Hollywood itself: A talented performer from the Midwest packs his or her bags and heads to Southern California to seek stardom.

If the Los Angeles Dodgers acquire Brian Dozier from the Minnesota Twins, that yarn could unspool on the MLB stage next season.

First, the latest rumor, courtesy of Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan:

We’ve heard Dozier-to-L.A. rumblings all offseason—it’s a marriage that makes sense, as Bleacher Report’s Zachary D. Rymer outlined.

Including Jose De Leon—the No. 6 right-handed pitching prospect in baseball, per MLB.com—could accelerate talks, especially if Los Angeles adds high-upside ancillary pieces. 

It’s speculation, but let’s assume a swap is consummated before the spring thaw and Dozier dons blue in 2017.

If that happens, it could propel the 29-year-old second baseman into the big league firmament.

It’s not as if Dozier is invisible now. He was an All-Star in 2015 and went off last season, setting career highs in home runs (42), RBI (99) and OPS (.886).

Let’s face it, though: The Twins are the Twins. They toil in a small market and haven’t made the playoffs since 2010, two years before Dozier debuted.

In September, Anthony Castrovince of Sports on Earth outlined how the Twins’ futility diminished Dozier’s accomplishments:

Unfortunately, Dozier’s 2016, in which he could eclipse Davey Johnson’s 1973 record for home runs by a second baseman (43) and might very well become just the 13th player in history to hit 30 second-half homers, is the latest and most highly visible example of the lost season — a year extraordinary in individual significance but, sadly, ineffectual in its standings significance. 

Granted, Minnesota has produced its share of stars, from Rod Carew to Kirby Puckett.

Los Angeles, however, is where glitz meets glam. The Dodgers are baseball’s biggest spenders and, aside from the New York Yankees, arguably MLB’s most nationally and internationally visible franchise. 

They’re also good. After laying down almost $200 million to bring back left-hander Rich Hill, closer Kenley Jansen and third baseman Justin Turner, the Dodgers are positioned to reach the postseason for the fifth consecutive year. 

There’s no guarantee with the archrival San Francisco Giants and retooled Colorado Rockies lurking in the NL West. Netting Dozier, though, could push L.A. over the hump into full-fledged front-runner status. 

He’d add much-needed right-handed thump to the Dodgers’ lefty-heavy lineup and join a strong offensive core that includes Turner, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corey Seager.

It’s possible Dozier’s numbers could dip at Chavez Ravine. Dodger Stadium was the second-least hitter-friendly yard in the game last season, according to ESPN’s Park Factors statistic, while Minnesota’s Target Field checked in at No. 9.

Dozier, however, has even career home/road splits, which suggests his bat plays anywhere.

Steamer projects a notable decline in home run production from Dozier in 2017, from 42 to 27, per FanGraphs. Something in the neighborhood of 30 homers from the second base position, though, would still make him a top-tier player. Add the L.A. publicity bump, and we’re talking another All-Star nod and notoriety aplenty.

How is Dozier handling the chatter?

“It can get overwhelming at times,” he said, per USA Today‘s Gabe Lacques. “I’m not going to sit here and lie to you and not look at the online [trade] stuff, because I do. It’s my career; you want to see how other teams value you, evaluate you and what the Twins think of you.”

If he thinks this is overwhelming, wait till he gets a load of the SoCal spotlight. If he gets a load of it, that is. 

Dozier can see past the glare. He’s already one of the game’s top second basemen. Now, he has a chance to pack his bags and aim even higher.

Take heed, Tinseltown—it could be one heck of a story.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The New York Yankees are rebuilding. They’re also trying to win. That’s how it works in the Bronx.

Those aren’t mutually exclusive goals. Last season, the Yankees sold at the trade deadline and restocked a farm system that Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter subsequently ranked No. 1 in the game. They also stayed in the playoff picture until late September thanks to contributions from youngsters such as catcher and American League Rookie of the Year runner-up Gary Sanchez.

It’s possible to shed costly pieces and compete at the same time.

This winter, the Yanks traded veteran backstop Brian McCann to the Houston Astros for prospects. They also handed one year and $13 million to aging slugger Matt Holliday and a whopping five years and $86 million to closer Aroldis Chapman.

Clearly, general manager Brian Cashman is treading the line between a full-blown fire sale and keeping his team competitive. Hardcore fans are surely rejoicing the burgeoning youth movement, but the casual observers who put butts in seats at Yankee Stadium want to watch a winner.

To that end, Cashman has work left to do. Specifically, he has to improve a starting rotation that’s littered with question marks and could be the club’s undoing.

We’ll explore how he can accomplish that in a moment. First, let’s drill a little deeper on where the Yankees stand.

New York is in decent shape on offense, with seasoned bats such as Jacoby Ellsbury, Chase Headley and Brett Gardner joining the nascent brigade led by Sanchez, masher Aaron Judge and top-rated outfield prospect Clint Frazier.

The bullpen is robust behind the dual threats of Chapman and super-setup man Dellin Betances.

The starting five, meanwhile, is a concerning mishmash.

Ace Masahiro Tanaka threw 199.2 innings in 2016, his highest total since coming over from Japan three seasons ago, and posted a 3.07 ERA.

Behind him, there’s hard-throwing right-hander Michael Pineda, who has shown flashes of brilliance but posted a 4.82 ERA in 2016, and 36-year-old southpaw CC Sabathia.

After that, the Yankees are counting on some combination of Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell, Luis Cessa, Chad Green and Adam Warren. All except Mitchell owned ERAs north of 4.00 last season, and Green has a grand total of eight big league starts under his belt.

That’s not a disaster if everything breaks right, but it’s uncertainty on stilts.

So what are New York’s options? The club could mortgage the farm and go after a top-tier trade candidate such as the Tampa Bay Rays‘ Chris Archer or the Chicago White Sox‘s Jose Quintana.

The Yankees, however, didn’t make a serious play for White Sox ace Chris Sale, who wound up with the archrival Boston Red Sox. It’s unlikely New York will suddenly become a big-time buyer.

There are lesser trade targets. The Kansas City Royals may be looking to shed payroll with multiple key pieces due to hit free agency next offseason.

Mercurial right-hander Yordano Ventura is Kansas City’s flashiest pitching piece, but southpaw Danny Duffy is an interesting, under-the-radar possibility.

The 27-year-old went 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 179.2 innings last season with 188 strikeouts next to 42 walks.

He has a final year of arbitration remaining before he tastes the market, which means he doesn’t necessarily fit with a long-term vision. It also means he won’t cost a massive haul in prospects.

Duffy is a fly-ball pitcher, which could hurt him in the home run-happy confines at 1 East 161st Street. He’d slot in nicely behind Sabathia, however, and give New York another proven mid-rotation arm.

Turning to the free-agent stew, there’s meat to be picked from the bones.

“I think it’s less likely that we wind up with a starter,” Cashman said of the free-agent options, per the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com). “It’s a tough market to be finding one in it.”

Tough, but not impossible.

Right-hander Jason Hammel was a workmanlike contributor for the Chicago Cubs rotation with a 3.83 ERA in 166.2 innings last season.

The Yanks were “sniffing around” Hammel in November, per the New York Post‘s George A. King III, and he’s unsigned as of this writing.

Another name that could pique their olfactory response is Ivan Nova. New York traded Nova and his 4.90 ERA to the Pittsburgh Pirates at the deadline last season.

He excelled with the Bucs to the tune of a 3.06 ERA in 11 starts. The 29-year-old Dominican Republic native was stellar in stretches after making his MLB debut with the Yankees in 2010 and could be a bounce-back candidate.

Speaking of which, here’s one more option: Doug Fister.

Yes, Fister put up a career-worst 4.64 ERA last season and will turn 33 in February. As CBSSports.com’s Mike Axisa put it, “The trend is not pretty.”

Fister, however, has been a ground-ball pitcher throughout his career. He was a top-10 Cy Young Award finisher with the Washington Nationals in 2014. He could be had on a short-term, show-me contract that won’t bust the bank.

None of these names will make the Yankees instant World Series favorites. Some may argue they’d be better off cashing in a gaggle of minor league chips for an Archer or a Quintana, or standing pat.

As Cashman threads the needle between retooling and relevance, however, he’d be wise to add some impact depth to his stable of arms.

He has a mandate to play the kids and grow the farm. He also has to try to win.

That’s how it works in the Bronx. And this is how it goes when you’re chasing starting pitching in the thin, cold winter of 2016.

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The MLB offseason has already given trade hounds plenty to chew on.

Much of the action has come courtesy of the Chicago White Sox, who shipped ace lefty Chris Sale to the Boston Red Sox and outfielder Adam Eaton to the Washington Nationals.

Many top targets remain on the board, however, and with the free-agent pool getting shallower, we can expect a few more seismic swaps before winter’s end.

With that in mind, let’s examine six players whose names have floated through the rumor mill and put together hypothetical win-win prospect packages for each.

Some of what follows is based on confirmed reports, some is pure speculation. All the players listed, however, have been the subject of credible trade chatter and would shift the balance of power if moved. 

One notable omission: Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen, who seems increasingly likely to stay put for the time being, with FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reporting the Bucs have rejected at least one “nice offer” of prospects and are demanding “MLB now or MLB ready” talent. 

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