Kuzul

Under normal circumstances, a pitcher coming off a major shoulder procedure who posted an 11.81 ERA in extremely limited action the previous season wouldn’t be a winter head-turner.

These aren’t normal circumstances.

The free-agent shelves are bare, especially in the starting pitcher department. Marquee trade options may require ludicrous expenditures of young talent. 

Enter Tyson Ross. Flawed as he is, he’s a name worth following.

On Friday, the San Diego Padres didn’t tender Ross a contract, making the 29-year-old right-hander a free agent.

Ross underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in October. The recovery time is usually between four and six months, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, which means Ross could be available at the start of the 2017 season if not before.

It’s always a gamble to sink dollars into a player recovering from a debilitating injury, especially a pitcher. Not so long ago, however, Ross was a sizzling hot commodity.

In 2014, he posted a 2.81 ERA with 195 strikeouts in 195.2 innings and made the All-Star team. In 2015, he fanned 212 in 196 innings with a 3.26 ERA.

His name floated through the trade-rumor mill last winter, but the Pads had some justifiably sky-high demands, as CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder noted:

It’s easy to conjure Javier Baez’s breakout performance in the 2016 postseason and scoff at the notion. It shows, however, how high Ross’ stock was soaring.

Coughing up seven earned runs in his only 2016 start—on Opening Day, no less—and eventually going under the knife knocked Ross down several dozen pegs. 

But in a dismal class headlined by 36-year-old Rich Hill followed by a mishmash of middling options such as Jason Hammel, Ivan Nova and Doug Fister, Ross sparkles with high-reward possibility. 

There are high-profile trade candidates such as the Chicago White Sox‘s Chris Sale and Detroit Tigers‘ Justin Verlander, but they’ll cost a trove of prospects.

Ross, on the other hand, won’t take minor league chips and could be had on a shorter-term, incentive-laden deal. 

Other pitchers have returned successfully from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. Jaime Garcia underwent the procedure in 2014 and posted a 2.43 ERA the following season for the St. Louis Cardinals. 

It’s not all sunshine and roses. It’s an uncommon surgery, and the results are often less than stellar, as Nick Lampe of Beyond the Box Score starkly spelled out.

Still, Ross will surely draw attention from a number of clubs, including—but by no means limited to—the Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles. Phil Rogers of MLB.com said Ross has been “a favorite” of the Chicago Cubs front office for some time.

Even the Friars aren’t slamming the door.

“The interest is there for us,” San Diego general manager A.J. Preller said after the Padres non-tendered Ross, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “We know what kind of competitor he is, what kind of worker he is.” 

The Pads, CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder noted, would likely have had to pay Ross upward of $10 million in arbitration, so any reunion would require a significant cut from that high-water mark. 

More likely, Ross will don a different uniform and become a classic reclamation project.

He’s not a sure thing. He might even be a long shot. He’s a possible diamond in the rubble, however, the type of player we could be looking back on in nine or 10 months while talking about bargains and rebirths. 

The projection systems are bullish, with Steamer foretelling a 3.41 ERA in 181 innings. That’s the stuff of a solid mid-rotation starter.

What if Ross could regain his 2014-15 mojo, though? What if he could transform back into the All-Star who warranted Javy Baez rumors?

Is that probable? No. Possible? You bet.

If you can’t dream in early December, when can you?

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All together now, baseball fans: Whew.

With the hours ticking down until MLB‘s collective bargaining agreement expired Dec. 1, the league and players union agreed to a new pact Wednesday night, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

With that, baseball avoided its first labor stoppage since the devastating strike of 1994-95, which wiped out the World Series and gave a generation of young fans—including yours truly—their first bitter taste of sports cynicism. 

Forget the details of the new deal for a moment, though we’ll delve into that shortly. Take a second and let the relief wash over you.

We can spend the winter arguing about trades and free-agent deals rather than watching a bunch of millionaires haggle with a bunch of billionaires. Feels good, right?

Oh, sure, a lockout wouldn’t have brought on the apocalypse, per se. It might have only meant a few weeks of tension and cuticle-gnawing, with no lasting harm done.

By avoiding a strike altogether, though, MLB ensured the good mojo from 2016’s historic, thrilling World Series will keep flowing.

Really, we should tip our collective cap. The NFL’s and NBA’s most recent lockouts were in 2011; the NHL’s was in 2012 (though it ended in January 2013). Baseball, meanwhile, is closing in on three decades of labor stability.

If that were a stat, it’d be in the record books, as FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman noted:

Tip your cap also to MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred, who expressed optimism Saturday. 

“I still believe we’re going to reach an agreement,” he said, per Heyman. Turns out, he was right.

OK, now to the particulars. 

More details will continue to trickle out, but for now Heyman laid out some key provisions of the new CBA (via Dan Werly of the White Bronco). 

Teams that extend qualifying offers to free agents will still receive draft-pick compensation but not in the first round. That’s a significant concession to players, whose value was frequently diminished by the old QO system.

There will not be an international draft, another concession by the owners, though international signings will be capped at $5 million to $6 million per year.

Rosters will remain at 25 rather than 26, a minor walk-back on the part of the players union, which would obviously prefer to see more bodies on MLB rosters.

Finally, and probably most significantly, the luxury-tax threshold will move sensibly northward, as USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale explained:

The tax will start with payrolls exceeding $195 million in 2017, up from $189 million this year, increase to $197 million in 2018; $206 million in 2019; $208 million in 2020 and $210 million in 2021. It still leaves the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers over the limit in 2017.

Many clubs were surely waiting to see where that number landed before committing big dollars in free agency or taking on expensive contracts via trade.

Now, at the risk of mixing metaphors, the hot-stove floodgates will open.

There has been some action this winter. Yoenis Cespedes inked a four-year, $110 million deal with the New York Mets before news of the new CBA broke.

Most of the marquee names remained on the board, however, and it seemed destined to stay that way until the other cleat dropped.

A lockout could have also killed the winter meetings, per ESPN the Magazine‘s Buster Olney:

Instead, the meetings will kick off as scheduled Dec. 4 in Maryland. Elite names such as ace closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen and sluggers Edwin Encarnacion and Mark Trumbo will find homes or at least have their tires kicked in earnest.

Sellers like the Detroit Tigers could begin to offload assets, especially now that they know where they stand on the luxury-tax front. Prospect-rich buyers, including the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers, should become more active.

It’s worth noting, as a caveat, that the details of the CBA were being ironed out as of this writing and nothing was officially ratified.

Let’s assume there are no 11th-hour snags, however. Rumors will fly. The balance of power will shift. The offseason will continue apace.

Most essentially, as winter cedes to spring, there will be baseball.

All together now: Whew.

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The Chicago Cubs are the team to beat in the National League. That was true before they busted their 108-year championship drought and it’s certainly true now.

Here’s the thing about being the team to beat, though: Everyone wants to beat you.

Like, say, the Washington Nationals.

The Nats are the defending NL East champs. They pushed the Los Angeles Dodgers to five games in the division series, despite losing All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos and co-ace Stephen Strasburg to injury. They’re within shouting distance of Senior Circuit supremacy.

Here’s an intriguing thought exercise: Would a trade for Chicago White Sox stud Chris Sale put them in position to threaten the Cubs’ nascent reign?

The Nats have kicked the tires on Sale, per USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale. Why not? With a comically weak free-agent class, he could be the winter’s biggest prize if he’s moved.

A 27-year-old five-time All-Star, Sale has eclipsed 200 strikeouts in each of the last four seasons and thrown more than 200 innings in three of them. He’s averaged 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings since his debut in 2010, the sixth-highest total among active pitchers. 

He’s under contract for the next three seasons, for $12 million in 2017, a $12.5 million team option in 2018 and a $13.5 million team option in 2019, a relative bargain.

He’ll also cost a lot in trade, as we’ll get into shortly. For now, back to the original question: Could adding Sale push Washington past Chicago?

He’d join a rotation already fronted by NL Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer and Strasburg, forming a formidable top three.

Here, let’s stack their 2016 stats next to each other for fun:

Add Tanner Roark (16-10, 2.83 ERA, 210 innings, 172 strikeouts) and you’d be looking at one of the deepest, most dangerous rotations in the game.

The Cubs have a strong starting corps of their own. Chicago’s top four starters—Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta and John Lackey—combined for 15.7 WAR by FanGraphs‘ measure. 

Marry Sale’s 2016 WAR to the totals for Scherzer, Strasburg and Roark, however, and you get an even more robust 17.8.

The Nationals’ bullpen ranked second in the NL with a 3.37 ERA last season, while the Cubs’ relief corps ranked fourth with a 3.56 mark. Both teams could lose the elite closers they acquired at the trade deadline—Mark Melancon from the Nationals and Aroldis Chapman from the Cubs.

The Nationals could also lose their backstop and a key offensive cog with Ramos on the market. The Cubs, likewise, need to re-sign or replace center fielder and leadoff man Dexter Fowler, which they may have done by signing Jon Jay to a one-year, $8 million pact, per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.

The Cubs’ offensive core is second to none, with NL MVP Kris Bryant, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, shortstop Addison Russell and second baseman/breakout postseason star Javier Baez leading a group that ranked second in the NL in runs (808) and OPS (.772).

The Nats counter with 2015 NL MVP Bryce Harper, second baseman Daniel Murphy and center fielder/speedy breakout rookie Trea Turner. They also hit more home runs than the Cubs in 2016 (203 to 199) and stole more bases (121 to 66). 

The chasm isn’t that wide, in other words. One seismic move could edge Washington over the top. 

The same could be said for other NL contenders, including the Dodgers and San Francisco Giants. The Dodgers need starting pitching and a bat or two, though they may be shackled by financial constraints. The Giants need to add some thump to their lineup and bolster a bullpen that was their undoing last season.

The New York Mets, meanwhile, made the biggest move of the offseason thus far, re-upping outfielder Yoenis Cespedes for four years and $110 million, per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan. 

That’s another reason for the Nats to be aggressive. The Mets, recall, won the division and the NL pennant in 2015 and could be a formidable opponent in 2017 if their rotation bounces back to health.

What would Washington have to surrender for Sale? The short answer: a ton.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal opined, correctly, that it’s “virtually impossible to imagine the Nationals parting with Turner.”

However, Rosenthal added, “they could entice the White Sox with others from their deep, talented system. Start with right-handers Reynaldo Lopez and Erick Fedde and outfielder Victor Robles, and take it from there.”

Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked Robles, Lopez and Fedde the Nats‘ No. 2, 3 and 4 prospects, respectively. They all rank among the game’s top 100 prospects, per MLB.com—Robles at No. 10, Lopez at No. 37 and Fedde at No. 75. 

That package would sting, and it might not be enough. The Sox could hold out for Turner, or right-hander and No. 1 prospect Lucas Giolito.

This is the time for the Nats to get bold, though. They’ve won three division titles in five years but never advanced to the National League Championship Series, let alone the big October dance.

Close your eyes and picture that rotation again: Scherzer, Sale, Strasburg and Roark.

“Imagine that in the playoffs,” an unnamed executive said, per Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. “And Sale being there would completely take the pressure off Strasburg.”

That’s a salient point. Talented as Strasburg is, he’s got a checkered injury history. With Sale in the fold, he could shine as the best No. 3 starter in the game.

The Cubs are the team to beat in the NL, and a safe bet to become baseball’s first repeat champions since the 2000 New York Yankees.

The Nationals have a chance to beat them, however, and Sale could be their cudgel. 

He’d be an expensive one. He’d also be worth it.

All statistics courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

What a difference a year makes.

Last winter, Zack Greinke was baseball’s reigning ERA king and arguably the offseason’s hottest free-agent commodity. The Los Angeles Dodgers wanted him back. The San Francisco Giants wanted to pry him away.

Greinke ultimately, and somewhat surprisingly, signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks for six years and $206.5 million.

Now, after his ERA ballooned to 4.37 during a deflating season in the desert, Greinke is an albatross.

The $34 million he’s owed next season could swallow more than a third of the Diamondbacks’ total budget, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney noted. 

That’s the mess new D-backs general manager Mike Hazen inherited. His task is to mop it up, per Olney:

…as Hazen establishes himself with the Diamondbacks, perhaps he could do what his predecessor would have never been in position to do: persuade ownership to dump Greinke and as much of his contract as possible, even if it means eating some of his salary in the years ahead. Greinke’s contract is already a serious impediment for Hazen, as he goes about his work of trying to build a consistent winner in Arizona, and the problem might only get worse if Greinke’s performance continues to decline next season.

It won’t be easy. The Diamondbacks would walk away from any Greinke trade with some egg on their face. On Nov. 9, Hazen said the team is “fully anticipating that Zack is going to be back next year,” per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert.

If they can shed a portion of his salary, though, and net a couple of decent prospects, they should jump at the chance.

Despite his down year, Greinke has upside. Between 2013 and 2015, his 13.5 WAR ranks eighth among big league pitchers, according to FanGraphs’ measure.

He’s 33, which means this decline could be real and permanent. But he’s also one season removed from leading MLB in ERA (1.66), ERA+ (222) and WHIP (0.844).

If there were an entry in the dictionary for “high risk, high reward,” it would be a picture of Greinke’s grinning visage.

The only realistic suitors are clubs with gaudy budgets and fertile farms. From that group, three emerge as the most logical. Let’s examine each, and the packages they may be willing to offer.

It’s all speculation at this point, but it should be high on Hazen and Arizona’s due-diligence list. 

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been in rebuild mode since the 2016 trade deadline, jettisoning expensive veterans and adding young talent to a minor league system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 1 in the game. 

Taking on a chunk of Greinke’s salary and giving up prospects for the privilege would be a redirect, to say the least.

New York, though, is always in win-now mode. The Bronx faithful demand it. Its rotation is sketchy after ace Masahiro Tanaka, with mercurial right-hander Michael Pineda, creaky veteran southpaw CC Sabathia and a muddled cast of youngsters filling in the picture.  

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe name-dropped New York among possible Greinke landing spots. Joe Giglio of NJ Advance Media likewise said the Yanks “loom as a possibility” in the Greinke sweepstakes.

New York should refuse to part with any of its top prospects—a group headlined by outfielder Clint Frazier and shortstop Gleyber Torres—even if the D-backs are willing to pick up half of Greinke’s tab or more.

A mid-tier name such as 20-year-old right-hander Drew Finley—the Yankees’ No. 19 prospect, per MLB.com—along with a throw-in player and an offer to absorb the bulk of Greinke’s salary should get the Diamondbacks’ attention.

Still, given New York’s current trajectory, we’ll put the likelihood of this at somewhere between “low” and “not gonna happen.”

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox don’t need to add an ace-level arm with recently minted AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello and David Price already in the fold.

After a disappointing division-series sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Indians, however, it’s a safe bet president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will have his eyes out for upgrades to any facet of the roster.

Like New York, Boston has a loaded farm system and a hefty payroll. Hazen, meanwhile, was the Sox’s GM last season, so he presumably has a direct line to Dombrowski.

Top prospects such as infielder Yoan Moncada and outfielder Andrew Benintendi shouldn’t even enter the conversation. Perhaps someone like lanky lefty Trey Ball, ranked as the Sox’s No. 14 prospect by MLB.com, or a high-upside gamble like 19-year-old Dominican outfielder Yoan Aybar could whet Arizona’s appetite.

If Boston is going to swing a trade for a starter, it could set its sights on other targets, including the Chicago White Sox‘s Chris Sale or the Detroit Tigers‘ Justin Verlander, as I recently outlined. Greinke would likely come at a lower cost in talent, though, if not dollars.

OK, now the soggy blanket: The Red Sox will pay Price $30 million for at least the next two seasons, at which point the lefty can opt out. They also need to fill the David Ortiz-sized hole in the middle of their lineup. Shelling out for a significant portion of Greinke’s contract would strain the purse strings.

Plus, with both New York and Boston, there’s the question of whether a move to the hitter-happy AL East would help Greinke get his mojo back.

Los Angeles Dodgers

They say you can’t go home again, but the Dodgers and Greinke could test that axiom.

It’s more than a wild fancy. L.A. “expressed interest” in trading for Greinke in August after he cleared waivers, per Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal.

The talks “were not substantive and did not advance,” according to Rosenthal’s sources. Still, it shows the door to a Greinke-Dodgers reunion is cracked open.

Ace Clayton Kershaw returned strong from a back injury that cost him two months in 2016, and Japanese import Kenta Maeda was a steady No. 2.

Trade-deadline acquisition Rich Hill is a free agent, however, and the rest of the Dodgers rotation is a mishmash of promising-but-untested youngsters (Julio Urias), middling veterans (Scott Kazmir) and uncertain injury comebacks (Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu). 

Simply putting a Dodgers uniform on won’t return Greinke to his former glory. There are causes for cautious optimism, though.

The Dodgers had the third-best team defense in the NL—and all of baseball—in 2016, while the D-backs had the Senior Circuit’s second-worst, per FanGraphs. Arizona’s Chase Field was baseball’s second-most hitter-friendly yard, per ESPN’s Park Factors statistic, while Dodger Stadium was the second-least. 

That’s not to suggest all of Greinke’s 2016 struggles can be pinned on shoddy defense or his home-field disadvantage. It’s possible, however, that a return to Chavez Ravine could rekindle his All-Star flame.

Like Boston and New York, Los Angeles could hang on to its top MiLB talent and still put together an enticing package. Catcher Austin Barnes—an Arizona State alum and the team’s No. 10 prospect, per MLB.com—would make for a nice centerpiece, as would 21-year-old right-hander and No. 8 prospect Jordan Sheffield. 

The biggest impediment, however, may be the Dodgers’ financial situation.

L.A. boasted baseball’s highest payroll in 2016, but the team is under pressure to tighten its belt to conform to MLB’s debt rules, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. 

That could hinder the club’s ability to bring back key free agents such as third baseman Justin Turner and closer Kenley Jansen, let alone shoulder part of Greinke’s contract. 

The safe bet is on Greinke staying put. The Diamondbacks should keep asking, however, and see if they find a pliable taker.

Last winter’s prize has become this offseason’s toxic asset. What a difference a year makes.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Thanksgiving is behind us (belch), and the winter meetings kick off Dec. 4, but MLB‘s hot stove is lukewarm at best.

Sure, a few meaningful deals have gone down. The Houston Astros signed outfielder Josh Reddick and acquired catcher Brian McCann from the New York Yankees. On Wednesday, the Seattle Mariners shipped mercurial right-hander Taijuan Walker to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a five-player swap. 

Most of the top free agents and trade targets remain on the board, however. 

That’s not completely unusual; big names often sign after the holidays and well into the new year.

However, with uncertainty swirling around the soon-to-expire collective bargaining agreement, it feels as though players, agents and executives are hanging back like shy partygoers shuffling their feet by the punchbowl.

With that in mind, let’s crank up the music and run through a half-dozen moves clubs should pull the trigger on as soon as possible—mostly because it would behoove them, but also because we’re ready for some action.

Begin Slideshow

Kenley Jansen is one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. By definition, he’ll improve any club that signs him.

He doesn’t make sense for every team, however, financially or strategically, including the Miami Marlins.

So, naturally, they’re in deep on Jansen.

In fact, the 29-year-old right-hander is the Marlins’ “top target,” per FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman. The Fish, Heyman noted, “are considering the idea of putting together a super pen since there aren’t the types of starters available at reasonable cost to help them upgrade their rotation in a meaningful way.”

That’s not absurd. Far from it. The super bullpen is baseball’s latest fad. It propelled the Kansas City Royals to a World Series title in 2015 and carried the Cleveland Indians to Game 7 a few short weeks ago.

If Miami lured him in, Jansen would join a pen headlined by All-Star A.J. Ramos, who posted a 2.66 ERA last season and racked up 73 strikeouts in 64 innings. 

Jansen also has ties to Marlins skipper Don Mattingly from their days with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He boasted a 1.84 ERA with 47 saves and 104 strikeouts in 68.2 innings and proved his mettle in the postseason. 

“Having a shutdown closer like Jansen changes the way teams have to plan against the Dodgers,” an unnamed talent evaluator told FanRag Sports’ Jack Magruder. The same would be true for any squad that inked him.

The dots connect.

Ask yourself, though: Is Miami really one superlative reliever away from bona fide contention?

The Marlins finished 79-82 last year, a distant third place in the National League East.

The offense is laden with potential. All-Star center fielder Marcell Ozuna and left fielder Christian Yelich are coming off breakout campaigns. Still, Miami ranked No. 27 in baseball in runs scored, “thanks” in part to the inconsistent stylings of $325 million man Giancarlo Stanton, who hit a scant .240 and paced the team with 140 strikeouts. 

The starting rotation lacks a legitimate No. 1 after the tragic death of Jose Fernandez and will rely on a muddled mishmash topped by veteran lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who posted a 4.96 ERA in his first season in South Beach. 

There are no aces to be had via free agency. Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter, meanwhile, ranked the Marlins’ farm system No. 27 in baseball, meaning a roster-remaking trade is unlikely. 

Speaking of which: Jansen would cost the Marlins their first-round draft pick since he rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer.

If we were talking about a team that was an elite closer away from World Series glory, that would be a worthwhile trade-off. 

For Miami? Not so much.

Then again, this is a franchise that defines dysfunction. They’re a team, as Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller put it in December, “that always is just one elephant short of going full Barnum & Bailey under the carnival-barker owner Jeffrey Loria.”

The Marlins have won two titles in their relatively brief existence and proceeded to tear each roster down posthaste. They built a gaudy new stadium on a financially unstable foundation. They hired Barry Bonds, arguably baseball’s most polarizing figure, to be their hitting coach and canned him after one season.

We could go on. Even casual observers, however, understand that the Marlins and bizarre decisions go together like stuffing and gravy.

On the grand Miami head-scratching scale, signing Jansen for the $80 million to $90 million he’s sure to command wouldn’t rate near the top. 

But it would be a classic Marlins overreach: Big-game hunting for a splashy name at the expense of a draft pick and a hunk of payroll without an apparent plan. Miami’s budget ranks in the bottom third, per Spotrac. Unless Loria is preparing to untie the purse strings, Jansen is an incongruous luxury.

Miami should hang on to its first-round pick. It should figure out which parts of its current offensive core it wants to keep and nurture.

It should methodically bolster and rebuild the starting rotation over the next few seasons and sketch a road map that goes deeper than the shiniest free agent on the shelf.

For the Marlins, though, “should” is rarely synonymous with “do.” Which means Jansen will probably soon wear an “M” on his hat.

All statistics courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s November. That means turkey, stuffing, pumpkin pie and Evan Longoria to the Los Angeles Dodgers rumors.

Here’s one, courtesy of MLB Network’s Jon Morosi:

OK, that’s less a rumor and more informed speculation. And maybe Longoria-to-L.A. talk isn’t quite as inevitable as Thanksgiving.

The Dodgers trading for Longoria makes a share of sense, though. It’s also not a new idea.

Rumblings about the Tampa Bay Rays third baseman heading to Southern California cropped up at the 2016 trade deadline, per Morosi. At the time, however, the Dodgers employed Justin Turner at the hot corner.

Now, Turner is a free agent. The Dodgers have a hole to fill. Cue the Longoria chatter.

“Our most acute needs as we head into the offseason are the roles previously occupied by our two free agents,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said, per Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times. “We have to figure out what we’re doing at third base, and figure out an anchor for the back of the pen.”

Longoria is more than just any third baseman. He’s a three-time All-Star coming off a superlative season that saw him hit .273 with a career-high 36 home runs and 98 RBI.

He has ties to Friedman, who was general manager in Tampa Bay when the then-Devil Rays drafted Longoria with the third overall pick in 2006. Plus, he was born and raised in SoCal.

Longoria has six years and about $100 million left on his deal, but the Dodgers have baseball’s highest payroll. The Rays will likely expect a strong return of young talent, but the Dodgers have a deep farm system.

The dots connect. In fact, it seems like a borderline perfect marriage.

Here’s the central question, though: Is Longoria preferable to Turner? The Dodgers could simply re-sign their old third baseman, after all.

To begin, let’s stack the two players’ 2016 stats next to each other:

There’s remarkable symmetry, especially when you consider both players are right-handed swingers who were born in Southern California within a year of each other.

If we zoom back a tad, however, Turner gains an edge.

Between 2014 and 2016, Turner’s WAR (12.8) was higher than Longoria’s (11.9) by FanGraphs’ measure. Turner has also been a superior defender over the past two seasons, posting a 16.7 ultimate zone rating compared to Longoria’s 7.7.

Turning to the projection systems, Steamer foretells a .263/.324/.460 slash line for Longoria and a .285/.354/.466 line for Turner in 2017. 

That’s not to suggest Longoria is chopped liver. He’d slot nicely into a Dodgers lineup that features reigning National League Rookie of the Year Corey Seager, powerful center fielder Joc Pederson and veteran pieces such as first baseman Adrian Gonzalez and catcher Yasmani Grandal. 

In terms of dollars, Turner should command more than the $13 million Longoria is owed in 2017 and may well eclipse his average annual value for the next few seasons in a weak free-agent class. Something in line with the five years, $95 million the Boston Red Sox gave Pablo Sandoval in 2014 seems attainable.

Longoria, on the other hand, will cost more than cash. The Dodgers will also have to part with high-upside prospects to land him.

The small-market Rays are always seeking to shed salary, but even if the Dodgers eat all the money, they’ll have to dip into their MiLB stash.

That’s where the scales truly tip toward Turner. If he and Longoria are roughly the same player, why give up payroll and trade chips for one when the other will require only money?

Los Angeles will have to battle other suitors, possibly including the archrival San Francisco Giants, per Morosi. 

The Dodgers should make Turner a priority, though, and consider Longoria a distant plan B. The best move isn’t always the splashiest or the one that commands the most headlines.

Sometimes, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

To put it in Thanksgiving terms: Longoria is the stuffing, Turner is the turkey. Gobble, gobble.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Justin Verlander and Boston Red Sox fans may not be on the best terms right now. After Verlander lost the American League Cy Young Award to Boston sinkerballer Rick Porcello, Verlander’s fiancee, Kate Upton, voiced her displeasure via Twitter [warning: NSFW language].

While Upton’s and, subsequently, Verlander’s beef was mostly with the Baseball Writers’ Association of America voters, Porcello and Sox nation were unavoidably swept up in the controversy. 

Here’s something that would surely quash the issue: Verlander suiting up for the Red Sox next season.

It’s only speculation at this point. We know, however, that the Detroit Tigers are “open-minded” about trading veterans to shed payroll, as general manager Al Avila said on MLB Now (via MLB.com). 

“I’ve talked to all the guys,” Avila said. “[Miguel] Cabrera and Verlander and [Ian] Kinsler and guys like that just to let them know, this is just the way it is. It’s part of the business. But not to worry about anything unless I call them.”

Translating from GM speak: The Tigers are open for business.

Verlander should have multiple suitors. The pool of free-agent starting pitchers is comically shallow. And the 33-year-old right-hander is coming off an excellent season that saw him post a 3.04 ERA in 227.2 innings with an AL-leading 254 strikeouts. 

He’s owed $28 million annually through 2019 with a $22 million vesting option for 2020, so he isn’t exactly cheap. Detroit won’t be willing to give him away, either. The Tigers will surely expect some legitimate young talent in return.

Enter Boston, which has a robust payroll, a deep minor league system and ties to Verlander via its front office.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was at the helm in Detroit when the Tigers drafted Verlander in 2004 and was also there in 2013 when Verlander signed a five-year extension.

At the time, Dombrowski praised Verlander’s stuff and durability and labeled him “one of the premier pitchers in baseball,” per MLB.com’s Jason Beck. 

Verlander’s ERA ballooned to 4.54 in 2014, and he threw a career-low 133.1 innings while battling a triceps injury in 2015.

His 2016 bounce-back, though, should ease concerns about a decline. We’re talking about a six-time All-Star who won the AL Cy Young and MVP awards in 2011.

Velocity isn’t everything, but Verlander’s average fastball sat at 93.7 mph last season, his highest mark since 2013.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe listed the Red Sox as a possible landing spot for both Verlander and Cabrera. Boston has a David Ortiz-sized hole in the middle of its lineup, so Cabrera makes some sense.

The Red Sox could find an Ortiz proxy on the free-agent market, however. Edwin Encarnacion seems like a fit. Or there’s reigning MLB home run leader Mark Trumbo. 

To get a top-shelf starting pitcher this winter, it’s the trade route or bust.

Boston’s rotation is headlined by Porcello and left-hander David Price.

Porcello posted Cy Young-caliber numbers (sorry, Kate), going 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA. Price was a mixed bag after signing a seven-year, $217 million contract. He led MLB with 230 innings and struck out 228, but he also paced baseball with 227 hits allowed and surrendered a career-high 30 homers.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright posted a 2.86 first-half ERA but landed on the disabled list in September with shoulder issues and missed the remainder of the season and the division series.

Young left-handers Eduardo Rodriguez (4.71 ERA in 107 innings in 2016), Henry Owens (5.19 ERA in 16 career big league starts) and 32-year-old right-hander Clay Buchholz (4.78 ERA in 139.1 innings in 2016) round out the crop of possible starters. 

If the Red Sox add a bat to an enviable offensive core that includes 24-year-old AL MVP runner-up Mookie Betts and All-Stars Xander Bogaerts (age 24) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (age 26), the current starting rotation should keep them competitive. 

With Verlander, though, Boston would vault into the firmament of surefire championship contenders. Here, let’s stack Verlander, Porcello and Price’s 2016 stats next to each other:

That’s three of the AL’s top seven starting pitchers by WAR, to use a simple bit of statistical shorthand. If Price bounced back to the form that made him the Cy Young runner-up in 2015 or that won him the prize in 2012, look out.

It’s unclear exactly what Boston would have to part with from a farm system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 4 in the game. If the Sox were willing to eat all or most of Verlander’s salary, they should be able to keep untouchable names like infielder Yoan Moncada and outfielder Andrew Benintendi off the negotiating table.

Boston could also pursue another ace, like the Chicago White Sox’s Chris Sale, who is six years younger than Verlander and locked into a more affordable contract. The asking price for Sale, though, might include the Sox’s top prospects as a starting point.

Oh, and consider this: Verlander owns a 3.39 ERA in 98.1 postseason innings and has a well-earned reputation as a big-game pitcher. The same can’t be said for Porcello (5.66 career postseason ERA) or Price (5.54 career postseason ERA).

The Cleveland Indians are the defending AL champs until further notice. The Texas Rangers and retooling Houston Astros will make noise out West. The East, too, is competitive, with the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays coming off wild-card berths and the suddenly nimble New York Yankees laden with young talent. 

Boston, however, can gain separation. Yes, the Red Sox have shown indications of playing it safe this offseason, as I recently noted. Landing Verlander may prove too tempting to resist, however.

At the very least, it would put those angry tweets squarely in the rear view.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Baltimore Orioles closer Zach Britton didn’t win the American League Cy Young Award. He didn’t even finish among the top three, much to the consternation of his skipper.

“It’s shocking,” Orioles manager Buck Showalter said of Britton‘s snub, per MASN’s Roch Kubatko.  

Here’s another shock that could hit Orioles nation: the sight of Britton leaving via trade.

Kubatko recently floated the notion, though he added O’s executive vice president Dan Duquette “is adamant” Britton isn’t going anywhere.

So take what follows with the requisite grain of salt, and don’t mash the panic button if you’re a Baltimore fan and an ardent Britton booster.

Still, the idea has merit. Designated hitter/outfielder Mark Trumbo—who signed a one-year deal, $9.15 million deal with the Orioles last season and proceeded to lead MLB with 47 home runs—figures to have multiple suitors. Catcher Matt Wieters is likewise a free agent.

The Orioles plan to hang back and let the market develop, as Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reported, and don’t seem likely to be in on the handful of high-impact players.

That means if they want to get better, a trade is the path to take.

Moving Britton would sting—no argument there.

The 28-year-old left-hander had one of the best seasons ever by a relief pitcher, posting a 0.54 ERA in 67 innings with 74 strikeouts and 47 saves.

His season ended on a sour note when Showalter left him languishing in the bullpen in the Orioles’ crushing 5-2, 11-inning loss to the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card Game.

Other than that and the Cy Young rebuke, however, virtually everything came up Britton. 

So why would Baltimore dream of letting him go?

For one, the Orioles have a deep pen that features right-handers Brad Brach (2.05 ERA, 79 innings, 92 strikeouts) and Mychal Givens (3.13 ERA, 74.2 innings, 96 strikeouts), each of whom has the stuff and results to slot in as a closer.

And they have a farm system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 29 in the game. A package that included MLB-ready talent and younger, developing studs could boost the O’s in 2017 and, more importantly, set them up for success down the road. 

Remember, they compete in the AL East, where the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox not only have deep pockets, but also the No. 1 and No. 4 farm systems, per Reuter. 

Granted, there are multiple top-shelf closers available via free agency, including Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Britton, though, is set to hit the market after the 2018 campaign and his agent is Scott Boras, which means he will be angling to swim in money, Scrooge McDuck style. 

He’s been excellent for a few seasons, posting ERAs of 1.65 and 1.92 in 2014 and 2015, respectively, and making two straight All-Star teams.

This could be his sell-high moment, however. Relievers are notoriously mercurial creatures—brilliant one year, mediocre the next. 

As ESPN.com’s Buster Olney noted, “the relief market has exploded so much that Baltimore should at least go through the due-diligence process of asking other teams what they’d give up for Britton.”

Baltimore can hold out for a gaudy package. Maybe the Los Angeles Dodgers lose Jansen and are willing to part with a top pitching prospect such as Jose De Leon. Or perhaps the Yankees whiff on Chapman and dip into their MiLB reserve (that’s doubtful, given the division rivalry, but possible).

The safe money is on Britton staying put. There are enough free-agent options to satiate closer-starved contenders, with names like high-upside reclamation project Greg Holland and solid veteran Brad Ziegler also available.

Baltimore needs to pick up the phone, though, and maintain an open mind. Sometimes, you have to give up something great for the greater good.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are the perennial giants of the MLB offseason.

They’re always among the game’s biggest spenders. This year, they’ve also got stellar farm systems, meaning mega-trades are theoretically on the table.

It’s possible, however, that Boston and New York could tinker around the edges without significantly impacting the winter landscape.

If so, they’ll ironically be factors by being non-factors—and make a weak free-agent class into the ultimate buyer’s market.

After trading for closer Craig Kimbrel and signing left-hander David Price to a seven-year, $217 million pact last winter, among other moves, Boston apparently intends to take a more passive approach.

As president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said prior to the general managers’ meetings in Arizona, per Tim Britton of the Providence Journal:

Compared to last year, we were going full-bore for a closer, we were going full-bore for a No. 1 starting pitcher. I don’t know what’s going to happen because you don’t know what phone call’s going to take place. There are some clubs looking to move players. I’m not so sure patience may not end up being [best in] this situation.

Or, as Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald put it, “The Red Sox’s lavish winter of a year ago could never be an annual blueprint, not even for George Steinbrenner.”

Translation: Don’t look for the Sox to throw their bulk around.

The Yankees, meanwhile, signaled their intentions when they traded veteran catcher Brian McCann and cash considerations to the Houston Astros on Thursday for a pair of pitching prospects, per ESPN.com’s Andrew Marchand.

The move made sense, with super-rookie Gary Sanchez ready to take over behind the dish. It also continued a rebuild in the Bronx that began with the trades of relievers Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller and proven postseason masher Carlos Beltran at the 2016 deadline.

The Yankees aren’t waving the white flag. They remained in contention until the end of September despite their uncharacteristic sell-off.

They’ve shown interest in bringing back Chapman, despite his $100 million demands, reported by CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney. And New York may be looking to unload its cache of minor league chips for newly minted American League MVP Mike Trout, according to CBS New York’s Sweeny Murti.

“You don’t accumulate all those prospects with the intent of keeping them all,” an unnamed scout told Murti. “They have value, and it makes complete sense to spin off four or five of them for Trout.”

It’s possible the Yanks are prepared to gut their suddenly fertile farm for a generational talent like Trout. It’s also exceedingly doubtful the Halos will make him available.

The safe bet is that New York keeps its young talent, offloads another veteran or two—outfielder Brett Gardner is a prime candidate—and rolls into 2017 with the youth movement in full swing.

Would the Yankees obliterate the system for a win-now swap?

“[If] you’re an organization that’s one piece away, and you back the truck up with four or five players to finish off, you’d have to be one piece away,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told reporters in October. “And I would not recommend that type of decision-making as we approach the 2017 season. I think that would be a dangerous approach.”

Getting back to our original point: An inactive offseason from the Yanks and Sox would equal bad news for the winter’s free agents.

Hitters such as Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Mark Trumbo are counting on an AL bidding war. All of them profile best as designated hitters. If the Junior Circuit’s top two spenders are out, prices will slide.

Yours truly linked the Red Sox and Encarnacion with a David Ortiz heir apparent angle. Dombrowski, however, applied a wet blanket.

“Do you want to tie up that one spot with one individual?” the Boston executive said to the media. “I’m not sure. So if you said, ‘One year,’ well, maybe one year is different. But from a long-term basis, do you want to do that? I’m not sure.”

The Yankees, likewise, could tip the market for closers. If they’re not ready to entertain Chapman’s nine-figure asking price, it will drive down the cost for the Cuban fireballer and other bullpen studs such as Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon.

Other high-payroll franchises, including the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, will bid aggressively for relievers. Sluggers like Encarnacion will find homes.

If you remove the Yanks and Sox from the equation, however, nearly every bidding war is reduced to a skirmish.

It’s never wise to assume Boston and New York will sit it out. A seismic swap or mega-contract is always within the realm of possibility for these deep-pocketed antagonists. With so much burgeoning talent on both sides, the rivalry is about to reheat, as ESPN.com’s Scott Lauber and Andrew Marchand elucidated.

Baseball’s offseason giants, however, are showing signs of sleepiness.

If they keep snoring, the 2016-17 offseason will adjust accordingly.

All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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