Archive for October, 2014

Biggest Takeaways from 2014 ALCS, NLCS Action

With both the American League and National League Championship Series matchups wrapping up quickly, the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants both have some downtime now before the World Series gets underway Tuesday night.

The last two teams to sweep their respective LCS were the 2007 Colorado Rockies and 2012 Detroit Tigers, and they were both in turn swept in the World Series, so the Royals will have to find a way to keep momentum on their side and avoid a similar letdown.

Meanwhile, the Giants ending their series in five games means they can reset their starting rotation and have the red-hot Madison Bumgarner lined up to pitch Game 1. After playing second and third fiddle to the likes of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain during the team’s last two World Series runs, he will be asked to shoulder the load atop the rotation this time around.

So while we have some time to reflect, here is a look at five major takeaways from this year’s ALCS and NLCS action.

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MLB Playoffs 2014: Day 18 Schedule, Updated World Series Predictions

The San Francisco Giants will ride the momentum from a pennant-winning, walk-off home run into the 2014 World Series against the scrappy Kansas City Royals, a matchup of Wild Card teams that few would have predicted at the beginning of this year’s MLB playoffs.

First baseman/outfielder Travis Ishikawa’s ninth-inning, three-run homer in Game 5 of the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals sent the Giants to the final round just a day after the Royals completed a convincing sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in the ALCS. 

Both teams get a much-needed weekend break to rest up and prepare for what should be a scrappy, hard-fought series. For those who can’t afford to miss a minute of the Fall Classic, here is the schedule for Game 1, followed by some predictions on the outcome of the series.

 

World Series Prediction

At first glance, the Royals certainly appear to be the team of destiny here. Kansas City has rarely risen above mediocrity in the 29 years since it last won the World Series. The 2014 iteration of the Royals appear to be hellbent on erasing nearly three decades of futility. They’ve won all eight of their postseason contests, including four victories in extra innings.

It’s a team predicated on speed, defense, an airtight bullpen and a special blend of team chemistry that has engendered a sense of self-belief from the biggest star to the last man on the bench.

However, if we dial it back to the preseason and take a look at some expert predictions, it’s the Giants who may be the real underdog here. None of the 44 ESPN contributors listed here picked the Giants to win the pennant before the season began, per ESPN.com. The “nobody-believes-in-us” card is definitely part of San Francisco’s stacked deck. 

Royals manager Ned Yost acknowledged the similarities between both teams. “They’re a lot like us. They’re a team that scraps ballgames out. They’ve got great pitching, their bullpen’s dynamic. Their defense is very solid. It’s gonna be a good series,” he said, via MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel.

Kansas City’s outstanding defense should come up big once again in this series and back up a strong cadre of starting pitchers in James Shields, Jason Vargas, Yordano Ventura and Jeremy Guthrie.

The outfield is especially tough to play against. ALCS MVP Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon, Nori Aoki and specialist Jarrod Dyson are nightmare fuel for fly-ball hitters. NBC Sports’ Aaron Gleeman relays just how much better their play has been this season than the 29 other teams in the MLB:

The Giants starters may not have an otherworldly defense backing up, but they do have plenty of experience. NLCS MVP Madison Bumgarner has a career-postseason ERA of 2.67 in 67.1 innings pitched, per Baseball-Reference.com. Tim Hudson has playoff-pitching experience for both AL and NL squads, while Jake Peavy boasts a career 3.53 ERA over 13 seasons.

Bumgarner faltered a bit in Game 5 of the NLCS, giving up three runs in eight innings, and the Royals should be able to scrape out some early advantages in this series thanks to their defense and baserunning abilities, although Giants catcher Buster Posey could limit the damage here. Building on those (potential) advantages will be another story entirely.

Any group of cardiac kids needs to conjure up some instant offense. The Royals, who finished dead last in home runs in the regular season, have done that job exceedingly well in the postseason. They have eight round-trippers in as many games, with third baseman Mike Moustakas leading the way with four of his own.

The boom times could continue, as Giants starting pitchers gave up big hits quite often during the regular season. Bumgarner gave up 21 homers this season, while Ryan Vogelsong allowed 18, per ESPN.com

The Giants, on the other hand, have hit just five dingers in 10 games, with three of those coming in the pennant-clinching Game 5. Perhaps it’s the beginning of an upswing in power, but the star players one would expect to hit the big home runs—such as Posey and Pablo Sandoval—have come up short in the power department this postseason.

Both team’s bullpens have been absolutely stellar in the postseason, but the Giants have the advantage here. Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland have 1.08 and 1.13 ERAs, respectively, for the Royals, but even those minuscule numbers pale in comparison to the Giants’ ability to turn games into six-inning contests.

Lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt, Yusmeiro Petit and closer Santiago Casilla have combined to pitch 22 innings in the playoffs without giving up a single run. ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark noted Casilla‘s stuff has been especially nasty since September:

This should allow the Giants to call upon their large supporting cast to come up with big hits and steal a game or two late.

The Royals may not have quite as many chances to come up with big hits and steals in the late innings; quick starts will be the key to the series for the Royals. It’s tough to parse out the differences between these two scrappy teams, neither of whom hit the 90-win mark in the regular season.

The Royals have the home-field advantage, and that could truly be a difference-maker here. They did sweep the Giants during the regular season, but that’s immaterial at this point. There have been so many unlikely heroes, brave comebacks and clutch performances from both teams that it should come down to the team that makes fewer mistakes in the field—maybe.

It’s going to be a brutal series for fans emotionally invested in the outcome. Eventually, the fans of the royal-blue heroes will reach the promised land.

Prediction: Royals win in seven games

 

Stats courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Orioles vs. Royals: Game 3 Score and Twitter Reaction from 2014 MLB Playoffs

Exactly two weeks ago, the Kansas City Royals were two outs away from being eliminated from the playoffs. Now, just one game from clinching a spot in the World Series, that number is up to 108.

The Royals remained undefeated in the postseason Tuesday night, topping the Baltimore Orioles, 2-1, and capturing a commanding 3-0 lead in the American League Championship Series.

While the first two wins of the series were gained with the bats14 runs, four home runsthe Royals got back to basics in front of a raucous crowd at Kauffman Stadium: pitching, fielding and timely hitting.

Jeremy Guthrie, making his postseason debut in his 11th major league season, went five innings and allowed just three hits, two walks and one earned run. While he didn’t receive the win, he was far more effective than ace James Shields and fire-baller Yordano Ventura, as The Kansas City Star‘s Andy McCullough noted:

He only ran into trouble in the second inning, when Steve Pearce and J.J. Hardy hit back-to-back doubles to plate the Orioles’ only run off the starter. No one reached as far as second base in the following three frames.

Mike Moustakas, whose legend seems to grow with every new playoff game, was there to help Guthrie (and reliever Jason Frasor). With home runs in four of his previous five games, Moose opted to make an impact at the hot corner this time around.

He snared a line drive from Pearce in the fourth, and two innings later, he made a diving catch over the railing, tumbling head-first into the crowda defining effort you’re likely to see replayed for years to come.

MLB’s Twitter feed provided a look, while ESPN Stats & Info noted the rarity of the plays:

As is fitting for the movie script that this season is seemingly becoming, the Royals followed up each play by grinding out a single run.

Alex Gordon tied the game at 1-1 in the bottom of the fourth with a bases-loaded RBI groundout, and Billy Butler’s sacrifice fly in the sixth scored pinch runner Jarrod Dyson to make it 2-1. ESPN Stats & Info and the Toronto Star‘s Richard Griffin noted some appropriate numbers for the balanced squad:

The bullpen would take care of the rest, going four perfect innings to secure the win. Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan noted the clinical performance:

Baltimore will attempt to fight off elimination in Game 4 on Wednesday with starter Miguel Gonzalez, while the home club, Kansas City, counters with Jason Vargas.

The Royals need just one win in the next four games to advance to the World Series, but judging by the past seven, they won’t need nearly that many tries.

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Mike Matheny’s Questionable Calls Come Home to Roost in Cards’ NLCS Game 3 Loss

The St. Louis Cardinals lost a heartbreaker Tuesday, as Randy Choate’s throwing error in the 10th inning gave the San Francisco Giants a 5-4 win in Game 3 of the NLCS.

However, Choate’s rough outing with the game on the line didn’t define the Cardinals’ Game 3 loss.

Instead, the game came down to manager Mike Matheny’s decision not to use right-handers Carlos Martinez and Trevor Rosenthal, easily the team’s top bullpen weapons in virtually any scenario, or even Michael Wacha in the extra inning of a postseason game in a tied playoff series.

After Rosenthal’s blown save in Game 2 of the NLCS, Matheny, who was forced to remove the closer with two outs in the ninth inning, stated the hard-throwing right-hander remains the team’s closer.

“I’ll start with the back end of that—yes, he’s still our closer, and hopefully we have a lead late in the game where we can watch him go again,” Matheny said, via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

So then why wasn’t he (or either of the other aforementioned bullpen arms) out there for the 10th inning?

Choate, one of four remaining arms in the bullpen at the time, entered the game in the bottom of the 10th to face San Francisco’s 8-9-1 hitters, including a pair of left-handed batters in Brandon Crawford and Gregor Blanco.

After issuing a leadoff walk to Brandon Crawford to open the 10th, Choate had the next batter, right-handed-hitting Juan Perez, in an 0-2 hole after two botched bunt attempts. However, Choate’s poor control on subsequent pitches allowed Perez to hang in there long enough to deliver a single to left field.

Granted, everyone and their mothers knew that Perez would be bunting in that situation, but the strategy changed dramatically after the right-handed batter quickly fell behind in the count, 0-2, which in turn gave him the opportunity to swing freely at the plate.

Rather than bring in a right-hander such as Martinez, who was warm by the time Choate imploded, or Rosenthal—guys that have been late-inning fixtures in the bullpen this season and know how to miss bats—Matheny decided to stick with Choate, who allowed a .385/.458/.481 batting line this year to right-handed hitters.

Despite allowing the first two batters he faced in the inning to reach base, Matheny stuck with Choate against left-handed-hitting Gregor Blanco, who entered the game 3-for-6 in his career against the Cardinal reliever.

One would have hoped that Matheny learned his lesson during the regular season about asking too much of Choate. Specifically, Choate’s May 12 outing against the Chicago Cubs comes to mind, when Matheny asked the left-hander to throw the final two innings of a relatively close game.

The result was Choate’s worst outing of the season.

From Steve Nations of KSDK.com

Of course, Choate gets lit up for six runs while only recording two outs, ballooning his ERA to almost 7.00, a hill he’s going to be climbing for months if he wants to looks respectable on the back of his baseball card in 2014. This happened because Choate is not that kind of pitcher. He doesn’t work his way through a full inning facing lefties and righties. He’s the quintessential lefty specialist, and for some reason Matheny wanted to see if he could get a full inning out of him.

The fact that Matheny wanted the left-on-left matchup between Choate and Blanco at the end of Game 3 wasn’t the problem; the problem was that, with a crucial playoff game on the line in extra innings, he was hesitant to use Rosenthal, Martinez or Wacha despite being fully aware of the potential consequences of overextending Choate.

As the series shifted to San Francisco, Matheny, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, stated that he planned to use Rosenthal exclusively in save situations on the road. Therefore, it wasn’t surprising to see Rosenthal warming up in the bullpen with Yadier Molina in the top of the ninth (in anticipation of St. Louis possibly taking the lead), but fail to appear in the game.

On the other hand, Matheny’s decision to pass on using Martinez, who was already loose, and Wacha, who he said before the series would serve as the team’s go-to pitcher in extra innings, was inexcusable.

“Michael gives us definitely some flexibility, and we can use him in a different role, but right now that’s pretty valuable to us knowing that we can be quick (to other relievers), like we were,” Matheny said, via Goold. “It leaves a huge need in case we come back and tie the game.”

And for a manager who loves double switches as much as Matheny, it was shocking that he didn’t make such a move late in Game 3. Had Matheny inserted Peter Bourjos in center field when Seth Maness, who was due to bat in the next inning, took the mound, there’s a realistic chance he would have been able to use his right-hander for multiple innings.

It’s easy to blame the Cardinals’ Game 3 loss on Randy Choate’s strike-throwing issues and errant throw, but there’s simply no plausible explanation for why Matheny allowed the team’s most inconsistent and limited postseason reliever to decide their fate in the most important game of the season.

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Giants Outlast Cardinals in Game 3, Now Regain Advantage in NLCS

Of course a playoff game between the San Francisco Giants, those inexplicable #EvenYear magicians, and St. Louis Cardinals, the late-inning comeback club, would end this way. With a walk-off error on a bunt, that is. Oh, and in extra innings to boot.

The Giants’ postseason fortune in 2014—like that from 2012 and 2010 before it—continued as they won 5-4 in 10 innings to go up two games to one on the Cardinals, who stormed all the way back from a 4-0 first-inning deficit on Tuesday.

The deciding run came when Brandon Crawford, a lefty hitter who had been walked by lefty specialist Randy Choate to lead off the 10th, sprinted home from second base when Choate fielded Gregor Blanco’s sacrifice bunt attempt only to promptly throw it away down the right field line.

It was a so-very-Giants way to win, especially considering San Francisco had managed exactly one hit—by starting pitcher Tim Hudson, no less—after that four-run barrage in the first until Juan Perez’s single in the 10th pushed Crawford to second.

And yet despite the seeming randomness with which this club keeps on winning, the Giants have regained the edge in a dramatic, tightly contested National League Championship Series that has featured a ninth-inning walk-off home run in Game 2 and Game 3’s walk-off E-1. Through three games, the two teams are separated by all of three runs.

“I’m a little delirious,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy said in his televised postgame press conference of managing in yet another pressure-packed playoff game. “We don’t do anything easy. We scored four in the first and then nothing after that until the very end. We play a lot of tight games. It’s kind of our way.”

But the Giants don’t only play a lot of close games in October—they tend to win them.

With the next two still in San Francisco, the Giants have a chance to close out the Cardinals at home behind their Game 4 starter, righty Ryan Vogelsong—he of the 1.19 career playoff ERA—and lefty Madison Bumgarner, the last postseason ace still throwing, who looms in the potential clinch-the-series Game 5.

On the other side, the Cardinals are dealing with injuries (or at least injury concerns) to their two most important players, right-hander Adam Wainwright with his balky elbow and catcher Yadier Molina with his cranky left oblique.

“I woke up [Monday] moving a little better,” Molina said, via Lyle Spencer of MLB.com. “I feel good enough to catch.”

And yet, Molina isn’t healthy enough to hit, so he missed Game 3, the first playoff game he hadn’t played in since Game 2 of the World Series all the way back in 2004—a whopping 84 games ago. Sure, he got up to catch relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Seth Maness in the bullpen in the late innings, but that’s not exactly a promising sign.

Wainwright, meanwhile, is lined up to go against Bumgarner in Game 5, but that doesn’t instill much confidence given how he’s thrown this October. In two turns, the normally dependable righty has managed to make it through just nine innings while surrendering eight earned runs on 17 hits. Yikes.

Even the Cardinals’ freakish knack for finding their stroke late in games, particularly from the seventh inning on, might not be enough to overcome that. Heck, the comeback from 4-0 down to tie it at 4-4 on a solo shot by rookie Randal Grichuk in—you guessed it—the seventh wasn’t good enough Tuesday.

As Giants left fielder Travis Ishikawa, whose three-run double was the blow that put the Giants up 4-0 in the first, said, per Chris Haft of MLB.com:

Somebody asked me earlier…if there’s any other way we can score a run other than a non-conventional way, and I said, ‘If there is, we’re going to find a way.’ Just seems like…the resilience of this team. There’s no quit, whether we’re down or whether we’ve got the small lead. We’re going to find a way to get it done.

These two teams rule the NL just about every year, thanks to their uncanny (and somewhat supernatural?) ability to win—and win in dramatic, weird fashion—in October, so it’s fitting that they’re facing off in the NLCS.

But after the drama and weirdness of Game 3 and the questionable status of two key Cardinals going forward, it seems St. Louis’ late-inning comeback powers are being overwhelmed by the Giants’ random every-even-year luck.

You know, if such a thing exists.

 

Statistics are accurate through Oct. 14 and courtesy of MLB.comBaseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11.

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Cardinals vs. Giants: Game 3 Score and Twitter Reaction from 2014 MLB Playoffs

Three times, the San Francisco Giants tried to bunt over the game-winning run and failed. The fourth time proved to be the charm.   

A wild Randy Choate throw into right field on a Gregor Blanco sacrifice allowed Brandon Crawford to score all the way from second base and gave the Giants a 5-4 win over the St. Louis Cardinals in the 10th inning of Game 3 of the National League Championship Series at AT&T Park.

Blanco‘s game-winning bunt gives San Francisco a 2-1 series lead as both teams look to make their third World Series appearance in five years. The Giants hoisted the trophy in 2010 and 2012, thanks mostly to the production of their elite players.

If Tuesday was any indication, though, it’ll be the unsung heroes who play the biggest factor going forward.

Blanco, the Giants’ leadoff hitter, is hitting a paltry .111 for the postseason. His bunt came after an ugly failure on the at-bat’s first pitch, in which the ball bounced off the plate and back over the catcher’s head. Juan Perez could not get a bunt down in his two attempts to move Crawford into scoring position before sending a single into left field.

But when Blanco laid the second bunt down, the team’s fourth overall try, the outcome looked disastrous from the beginning. Placed in a spot where Choate could make a play, the 39-year-old lefty was forced into a sidearm flail that was off line from the get-go. The Cardinals reliever, used mostly as a situational reliever, has now given up three earned runs in 0.2 innings of work this postseason.  

The on-field celebration for the Giants featured a mixture of glee and relief, as it appeared they were in the process of blowing a lead for the second straight game. 

Quiet for most of their postseason run, the Giants offense came alive early against John Lackey. The Cardinals starter recorded two straight outs to start the game but then allowed five consecutive hitters to get on base, capped off by Travis Ishikawa, who sent a deep shot off the right-field wall to score three runs and give San Francisco a 4-0 lead. 

Ishikawa, who made a spectacular diving catch and drove in the game-winning run in Game 1, is continuing to have a series to remember. Thrust into an increased role out of necessity, Ishikawa‘s teammates joked that his new cleats, ones designed by Nike for Mike Trout, temporarily transformed him into the Angels outfielder last week. 

Ishikawa hasn’t quite been Trout. Instead, he’s become the unlikeliest of heroes for San Francisco so far in this series.

Designated for assignment by Pittsburgh in April and brought back to the Giants on a minor league contract, Ishikawa was closer to being out of baseball than on a postseason roster. But a late-season move to left field presented an opportunity to which Ishikawa has responded with some of the best baseball of his career.

A career .259 hitter in the regular season, the 31-year-old Seattle native is hitting .286 for the postseason and has four hits in eight at-bats this series.

“What he’s doing, it’s pretty tough,” Brandon Belt told reporters after Game 1, via Yahoo Sports’ David Brown. “But he makes it look…pretty easy for someone who hasn’t played that much.”

But while Ishikawa was continuing to etch his name in Giants postseason lore, the Cardinals were chipping away at a comeback that at times felt inevitable. A Kolten Wong triple drove in Jon Jay and Matt Holliday in the fourth inning and a Jhonny Peralta single plated Jay again in the sixth.

Noticeably getting hit hard despite a low pitch count, Tim Hudson was surprisingly kept in the game for the seventh. That would open the door for St. Louis’ own unlikely hero. 

Randal Grichuk, whose biggest baseball moment before Tuesday was quite possibly competing in the 2004 Little League World Series (or his home run off Clayton Kershaw, but whatever), launched a hanging pitch from Hudson off the left-field foul pole to knot the game at 4-4. 

Grichuk, himself in the lineup due to unforeseen circumstances, has fewer than 200 major league at-bats under his belt. He’s known to some as the Angels prospect who was taken one pick ahead of—you guessed it—Trout in the 2009 draft. One of the lighter running jokes of this series was Giants manager Bruce Bochy being unable to pronounce Grichuk‘s name.

But the names GrichukBlanco and Ishikawa became vital on an afternoon when superstar production was intermittent. Holliday, Matt Adams and Peralta went a combined 2-for-13. Hunter Pence knocked in Buster Posey on a first-inning single, while Pablo Sandoval and Pence each scored on Ishikawa‘s double, but their bats went radio silent for the subsequent nine innings. 

In fact, San Francisco had only one hit between the first and 10th innings—a meaningless single from Tim Hudson. The Cardinals, for their part, had nine hits but went 2-for-7 with runners in scoring position. 

Game 4 takes place at 8:07 p.m. ET Wednesday. Ryan Vogelsong is scheduled to pitch for the Giants, while Shelby Miller takes the bump for the Cardinals.

Vogelsong pitched twice against the Cardinals in the regular season, going 0-1 while allowing six runs in 13.1 innings. He gave up one run in 5.2 innings in San Francisco’s NLDS-clinching win over Washington.

Miller had a similar postseason experience, giving up two runs in his 5.2 innings of work as the Cardinals toppled the Los Angeles Dodgers. He did not face San Francisco during the regular season.

Given the way this series has gone, it may not matter who starts. The last two games have proved just how important it is to finish strong.  

 

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

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2014 ALCS: Showalter’s Skill Means Rainout Helps Orioles More Than Royals

It rained all day yesterday in Kansas City, so much that Game 3 of the American League Championship Series between the Royals and Orioles was postponed.  The rainout gives both teams an extra day of rest, but which team does the rainout help most?

The Royals won the first two games of the series, both close games played in Baltimore, but I think the rainout actually helps the Orioles more than it does the Royals.

Up 2-0 as the series moves back to Kansas City, the Royals have all of the momentum.  They have not lost a game yet this postseason and seem to be a team of destiny at this point.  The Orioles, on the other hand, are on the brink of having their season end soon.

There have been only three teams in MLB history that have come back from a 2-0 hole to win a League Championship Series.  And all three of those lost the first two games on the road and were able to regroup as the series came back to their home turf.

The Orioles, however, lost two consecutive games at Camden Yards and will have to scratch and claw to prolong the series past the minimum four games.

So the day off presumably takes some of the momentum away from the Royals, thus evening the teams a bit.

It’s not just for momentum purposes, though; it’s also the men calling the shots.  Buck Showalter is revered as one of the game’s best managers, while you would be hard-pressed to find someone who disagrees that the Royals have won in spite of Ned Yost, not because of him.

The day off gives both managers the opportunity to reshuffle their pitching staffs as they see fit.  The Orioles can bring back Chris Tillman on regular rest, and the Royals can start James Shields if they choose. 

The O’s need a win in Tuesday’s Game 3, so it would be sensible to put their best pitcher on the hill with their backs against the wall.  For the Royals, it’s a bit different.

Do they want to have Shields pitch against the opposing ace or save him to pitch against the O’s No. 2 starter?  Do they really want to use Shields again this early in the series, or give him a little extra rest so he’s ready to go if the series gets closer?

Those are all questions that Yost can ponder with the extra day off, but Showalter can as well.  It seems like the tide has to turn sometime, and maybe the Orioles will catch a break or two. 

The rainout basically adds up to an extra day of rest to allow both pitching staffs to refuel.  If the series goes six or seven games, whoever handles the pitching staff best will have the advantage. 

If history is any indication, the Orioles are better suited in that department; thus, they are going to benefit more from this rainout.  Give a mad scientist like Showalter an extra day to contemplate future moves, and the results have a good chance of improving.

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Giants Beat Cardinals in NLCS Game 3 on Walk-Off Bunt

The San Francisco Giants’ luck with wild throws continued in Game 3 of the National League Championship Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. 

With two men on and no outs in the bottom of the 10th inning, a wild throw to first from St. Louis reliever Randy Choate allowed Brandon Crawford to score the game-winning run, giving San Francisco the 5-4 walk-off victory. The Giants now lead the series 2-1.

 

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The 5 Biggest Decisions the Seattle Mariners Have to Make This Offseason

Prior to a year in which they are expected to contend, the Seattle Mariners have a few key decisions to make during the offseason.

Seattle finds itself in the rare position of trying to win now rather than building toward the future. The last two times the Mariners were coming off a winning season (2007 and 2009), they made disastrous signings and trades that resulted in poor records the following year.

While the Mariners won’t lose too much from their 2014 roster, they do need a few upgrades to be a playoff team in 2015. Seattle needs a better offense and will have to think carefully about a few free agents or trades over the winter.

Most of the Mariners’ biggest decisions this offseason will revolve around the offense, but Jack Zduriencik and Company will look carefully at the entire roster to try and build a contending team.

 

What to Do with Michael Saunders

The biggest news coming out of Seattle this offseason has revolved around Saunders.

At the Mariners’ wrap-up press conference, both Zduriencik and manager Lloyd McClendon claimed that Saunders needed to do more to keep himself healthy over the course of the season, via Colin O’Keefe of Lookout Landing. Then, in an interview with 1090 The Fan (via CBS Seattle), Saunders’ agent said that he was “frustrated” with the comments and that the team lacked communication with his client.

The relationship between the Mariners and Saunders is fractured, meaning the team will have a big decision to make regarding him this offseason. Saunders is the most talented outfielder on the team and put up a 1.9 WAR in just 78 games but has been injured far too often during his career.

Seattle could choose to move in a different direction and try to trade Saunders, although that could end up being a huge mistake with little outfield depth behind him. The Mariners also may look for a reliable backup to start in place of Saunders two or three times per week in order to keep him off the disabled list.

Either way, the Mariners must decide what Saunders’ future role on the team will look like.

 

Which Risky Free-Agent Slugger Is Worth It?

Club president Kevin Mather told 710 ESPN that payroll will increase in 2015. That means the Mariners will look at some free-agent signings likely to upgrade the designated hitter position, which produced all of minus-2.1 WAR in 2014.

While they are far from the only options, the Mariners will be connected with three free agents throughout the offseason: Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Billy Butler—if the Kansas City Royals decline his $12.5 million option.

All three could help the Mariners, but they each carry a significant risk.

Martinez is about to turn 36 (Dec.) and will be expensive after coming off the best offensive season of his career. Any suitor would have to expect Martinez’s numbers to trend downward, but he could still be a huge factor in the middle of Seattle’s lineup by just matching his career 125 wRC+ over the next couple of seasons.

Cruz will turn 35 next year and will also be looking for a multiyear contract. While Cruz won’t hit 40 home runs in Seattle and his skill set may be more prone to decline than Martinez’s, he could help the Mariners for at least the next two years.

Butler is coming off the worst season of any of the three but has not yet turned 29. He will be cheaper than the other two and might be worth a flier to see if he can return to his 2009-2013 form, when he posted no worse than a 117 wRC+.

Any one of those three could be the missing piece to Seattle’s lineup, but they all could backfire down the road.

 

How Much Outfield Help Do the Mariners Need?

The Mariners currently have the pieces to form a starting outfield, but all three potential members have some questions heading into 2015.

Saunders’ future in Seattle is a complete question mark at this point. Even if he enters the season as the starting right fielder, the Mariners will need a capable backup in case Saunders heads to the disabled list again.

Who knows if the Mariners will have the Dustin Ackley of the first half (76 wRC+) or the second half (123 wRC+)? Even Austin Jackson will be monitored closely into next season after struggling mightily since coming to Seattle at the trade deadline.

Assuming Chris Denorfia and Endy Chavez are gone, the Mariners will need outfield depth, but they must decide what type of player to bring in. Seattle could choose to bring in a fourth outfielder-type who could start if needed or target a bigger name like Melky Cabrera.

 

Is the Rotation Set?

Much like with the outfield, the Mariners could form a starting rotation with the current roster in 2015 but may decide to add some depth.

Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are locked in at the top of the rotation, while James Paxton looks very good through his first 17 career starts. As it stands now, Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias would occupy the last two rotation spots.

Both have great potential, but that’s asking a lot out of two young pitchers, particularly the 22-year-old Walker. Paxton, Walker and Elias also have some health concerns, so the Mariners will likely decide to add some depth unless they trust Erasmo Ramirez to fill in. 

The easiest decision for the Mariners to make would be to bring back Chris Young on a short incentive-laden deal, which would be beneficial for both parties. If Young ends up elsewhere, Seattle will have to choose between moving forward with what it has or adding a mid-level starter.

 

Who Are the Trade Chips?

With a relatively weak market, the Mariners may have to make some trades to add offense. They must decide what positions are strong enough to trade assets from while also balancing the present and future.

One position the Mariners will have to make a decision at is shortstop. Both Brad Miller and Chris Taylor received playing time last year, while the 21-year-old Ketel Marte has risen fast through the minors and looks to have some value.

The Mariners may be content to let Miller and Taylor battle for playing time out of spring training. If they do commit to one (likely Miller), the other could end up on the trading block.

Another position Seattle has some depth at is relief pitcher. While having a shutdown bullpen was a big part of the Mariners’ success in 2014, trading someone whose value is currently at a peak like Brandon Maurer for some offense could be worth it.

 

All stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Kansas City Royals Take Game 3, Lead Series 3-0 over Baltimore Orioles

The Kansas City Royals are one game away from the World Series after downing the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series.

The Orioles jumped on top in the second inning when Steve Pearce and J.J. Hardy hit back-to-back doubles, Pearce scoring off of Hardy’s hit. It was the first time this series that the O’s had a lead in a game.

It didn’t last long as the Royals loaded the bases in the fourth. Alex Gordon hit a grounder to second base, scoring Lorenzo Cain on the fielder’s choice. Kansas City would take the lead in the sixth on Billy Butler’s sixth sacrifice fly of the postseason.

Jeremy Guthrie started the game for the Royals, going 5.1 innings and allowing just one run on three hits. It was his first start in the playoffs in his 10-year career. He also got some great defensive help all around the diamond.

Guthrie did well but it was a collective effort from the club’s entire pitching staff. Guthrie, Jason Frasor, Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland all helped retire the final 16 batters of the contest. Holland recorded his fifth save of the postseason in the process.

In the preview we mentioned that the Boston Red Sox are the only team to overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series. The Orioles must do the same if they are to reach the World Series and two of those wins have to come in Kansas City.

On the other side, the Royals are one game away from their first World Series appearance since 1985.

Game 4 is scheduled for Oct. 15 at 4:07 p.m. ET and will be broadcast on TBS. You can follow along here on the Bleacher Report for live scores and highlights.

 

All stats courtesy of ESPN.com. 

You can follow Trey on Twitter @treydwarren.

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