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What We’ve Learned About the Seattle Mariners Near the Halfway Mark

A disappointing Seattle Mariners team will have to play much better in the second half of the season than it did in the first half to have any shot at making the postseason.

Through 70 games, the Mariners sit at a lowly 32-38. That’s 8.5 games behind the surprising Houston Astros in the American League West, and six teams currently stand between Seattle and the second wild card.

On paper, this looked like the Mariners’ best chance to make the playoffs or even win the World Series, so it’s hard to be too optimistic about the club at the moment. While there’s still time for the Mariners to go on a hot streak and get back into it, it isn’t early in the season anymore.

There are a few key takeaways from the first 70 games of Seattle’s 2015 campaign, and most of them aren’t positive.

 

The pitching looks to be set up nicely for the present and future…

Once again, the Mariners’ pitching staff has found ways to be successful despite dealing with multiple injuries. After a rough first few weeks of the season, Seattle starters have climbed to fourth in the AL in ERA and fifth in strikeout-to-walk percentage.

Apart from two uncharacteristically bad starts earlier this month, Felix Hernandez has again been spectacular. An even more encouraging sign is the development of some young pitchers.

The biggest concern of the early season was Taijuan Walker looking completely lost on the mound. However, Walker has been dominant over his last five starts, posting a 2.06 ERA in 35 innings with 38 strikeouts and just three walks.

Roenis Elias has also been solid for the most part since being called up in late April. In 11 starts, Elias has a 3.56 ERA (4.44 Fielding Independent Pitching), has decreased his walk rate by 1.3 percentage points since last year and flashed dominant upside by allowing two runs in seven innings with 10 strikeouts and no walks against Houston on Friday.

James Paxton also had a nice stretch in May although it is definitely time to be worried about his injury history. If those four can stay healthy (a huge “if” for any pitcher), the Mariners should be in good hands for the foreseeable future.

A nice surprise has been Mike Montgomery, who has looked like a capable back-end starter since being pressed into action. It’s just four games into Montgomery’s career, but so far, he’s done a nice job of mixing up his pitches and avoiding hard contact to make up for his lack of overpowering stuff. The Mariners need Montgomery to pitch well, as he represents just about the only pitching depth in the minor league system.

The bullpen has struggled a bit more at times than last year. There is some good news, as Carson Smith appears to be the new closer, a role he should keep for a long time.

 

…While the offense is still a problem

This looked like the year the Mariners could finally have the offense to match the pitching. Instead, Seattle has scored the second-fewest runs in the AL to go along with owning the second-worst OBP.

Looking at individual stats, the poor output is a bit hard to figure. Nelson Cruz has been one of the best hitters in the majors, Seth Smith has been good, and five regulars own a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) above 100.

However, three spots in the lineup have been black holes, and the bench has been woeful, as was expected. Seattle also has been awful hitting with runners in scoring position whether that’s bad luck or some organizational failure.

The biggest culprit has been Robinson Cano, who owns a 73 wRC+ and minus-0.2 WAR. Everyone expected the Cano deal to become a terrible contract at some point but certainly not in the second year.

If Cano continues to play like this, the Mariners can forget about the playoffs this season, and they’ll be in huge trouble for years to come.

There was nothing wrong with adding Rickie Weeks or trading for Mark Trumbo on an individual level. However, it’s becoming frustrating to see the Mariners continue to focus on the same player type: right-handed, high-power, low-OBP hitters with no defensive abilities. Unless the offense improves, the Mariners could be looking at changes at the top and another lengthy rebuild.

 

It’s time to move on from Dustin Ackley and be worried about Mike Zunino

Ackley and Zunino were two of the biggest question marks in Seattle’s projected everyday lineup heading into the season. Both have a lot of untapped potential at the plate but haven’t proved much in the major leagues yet.

For a time last year, Ackley remembered to hit to all fields and put up offensive numbers reminiscent of his rookie season. That hasn’t carried over to 2015 at all, as Ackley has a .190/.250/.310 line in 61 games.

Ackley is now nearly 2,200 plate appearances into his career with a 89 wRC+, and it might be time for the Mariners to just move on. A former top prospect who can play multiple positions fairly well might have at least a minimum amount of trade value, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Ackley was elsewhere after the deadline.

Zunino isn’t nearly as long into his career, and he’s fantastic on the defensive side, so it isn’t time to give up on him yet. But it is time to be worried, as Zunino was supposed to make major strides this year with another season of experience under his belt.

Instead, Zunino has been worse almost across the board, with a .158/.230/.300 line. A walk rate that is nearly doubled is at least something, but Zunino is striking out over 4 percentage points more.

Ideally, Zunino would be in the minors right now, getting the development the organization denied him for no apparent reason in 2013. However, the Mariners have no other catcher in the system who could possibly start in the big leagues, a major knock against the front office.

 

All stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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Stock Up, Stock Down for Seattle Mariners’ Top 10 Prospects for Week 7

For the first time in several years, the Seattle Mariners are in win-now mode at the major league level rather than looking more toward the future.

The graduation of many top prospects, particularly on the pitching side, has left Seattle’s farm system a little thinner than it has been previously. While the Mariners in no way have a bad farm system and haven’t been trading away too many prospects, most of the exciting young players are in the majors.

Still, Seattle entered the year with several prospects who were worth keeping an eye on. D.J. Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan appeared not all that far off from appearing in the majors, while top prospect Alex Jackson figured to move up to more advanced levels.

For many of Seattle’s top 10 prospects as determined by MLB.com, the season has gotten off to a disappointing start. Others like Ketel Marte and Edwin Diaz could soon be moving up prospect rankings.

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3 Bold Predictions for the Remainder of Seattle Mariners’ Season

The first five weeks of the 2015 season have been filled with surprises for the Seattle Mariners.

Offseason acquisition Nelson Cruz has been on a tear nobody could have seen coming and is currently leading the majors by a healthy margin with 14 home runs. Cruz has really helped Seattle stay afloat during a rough stretch of play.

Seth Smith and Logan Morrison have provided some value at the plate, other parts of the offense have struggled at times, the starting rotation has been shaky behind Felix Hernandez and J.A. Happ and the bullpen has been poor after an outstanding 2014 season.

All of that has resulted in a 14-17 record through 31 games. The good news is that the Mariners are ahead of the Oakland Athletics and within striking distance of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, but a 5.5-game deficit to the Houston Astros is significant, even if Houston is unlikely to keep this pace up.

The rest of the season will surely offer some storylines that would have seemed highly unlikely just a month ago.

 

Brad Miller spends most of his time in the outfield—and is successful

There were rumblings during the offseason that Miller might work on learning other positions and becoming a sort of super-utility man. The addition of Rickie Weeks and the wrist injury to shortstop competitor Chris Taylor seemed to postpone that idea, at least until later in the summer.

Taylor’s return, the injury to Austin Jackson and the ineffectiveness of other outfielders have changed the situation again. The Mariners have been getting Miller some time in the outfield and intend to play him there, at designated hitter and occasionally first base this season, according to Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN:

It’s unclear how much Taylor will hit at the major league level, but the team understandably likes his defense (and baserunning) a lot more than Miller’s. While Miller has good enough range for the shortstop position, he’s been far too prone to throwing errors.

Miller has the athleticism and arm to be successful as an outfielder, potentially even in center field. Coach Andy Van Slyke deserves a lot of credit for turning Dustin Ackley into a plus-seven DRS left fielder in 2014, and Miller has an even better physical skill set for the position.

Don’t expect Miller to flat-out take someone’s job in the outfield, but the Mariners can rotate around and get him plenty of playing time. With any consistency at the plate, Miller will be a valuable piece for the rest of the season.

 

Logan Morrison has his best season in the majors

On April 28, Morrison owned a .149/.197/.194 slash line with one home run. A .212 BABIP and great defensive plays to rob Morrison of multiple home runs in the first month didn’t help matters.

One hot stretch later, and Morrison owns a much more respectable 94 wRC+ with five home runs, including a walk-off on Friday to begin a three-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics. There are reasons to believe Morrison’s numbers should only continue to get better.

Morrison’s struggles early on went beyond the typical BABIP woes. According to Baseball Savant, Morrison ranks seventh in the majors in average exit velocity off the bat and ranks right up with some prolific power hitters.

Hitting the ball that hard is eventually going to help Morrison’s average and slugging percentage. Morrison’s strikeout numbers are also the best of his career in what’s quickly becoming a relevant sample size, and he’s still drawing a healthy number of walks.

It’s easy to forget that Morrison was great in the second half of 2014 after missing significant time due to injury early on. If he stays healthy (a huge “if”), Morrison is primed for a big season as a critical part of Seattle’s offense.

 

Franklin Gutierrez gets meaningful playing time

Perhaps the biggest question of the early season is what to do with Ackley. Ackley has been unable to sustain his hot July and August from last season, batting .192/.217/.346 with a 54 wRC+ so far.

Those numbers even come with the caveat of being largely shielded from left-handers. As good as Ackley‘s defense is, a team with ideas of contending can’t have such a black hole in the lineup.

Add in Jackson’s injury (and uncertainty about his performance at the plate), a slow start from Justin Ruggiano and a minus-0.1 WAR total from Weeks so far, it becomes clear that Seattle needs outfield help. There aren’t many good options within the organization—apart from one familiar face.

Franklin Gutierrez is off to a .324/.457/.554 start with four home runs in Triple-A Tacoma after missing over a year with gastrointestinal problems. That has put him on the team’s radar, according to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune:

Nobody is expecting Gutierrez to get back to his 2009 levels, and he’s been injury-prone on top of a difficult medical condition to deal with. But he could provide some short-term help as a fourth or even fifth outfielder, something the Mariners will be needing soon.

 

All stats via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

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Final Prediction for Seattle Mariners’ Key Spring Position Battles

With just over three weeks until Opening Day, the Seattle Mariners are beginning to get a clear idea of who will come out victorious in their most intense position battles.

The Mariners entered spring training with only a couple of spots up for grabs on the 25-man roster. After Seattle shored up its weaknesses from last year’s roster with offseason acquisitions, only shortstop, the No. 5 rotation spot, one position in the bullpen and one on the bench were available at the start of camp.

Clear favorites have emerged in each of those battles, whether it be due to performance or injury. While spring stats shouldn’t mean everything (or even much) when deciding roster spots, Seattle’s position battles feel decided barring something out of the ordinary or further injury.

 

Shortstop

The fight between Brad Miller and Chris Taylor for the starting shortstop job was the most interesting thing to watch in Mariners camp up until Saturday. Both potential candidates were playing well, and it appeared the Mariners would have to wait until the final days of spring training to make a sure decision.

Unfortunately, an examination revealed Taylor suffered a fractured bone in his right wrist and will be sidelined for four to six weeks, according to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. That means Miller is guaranteed the job for the first month or so of the season unless he gets hurt himself.

Miller likely had the advantage based on this spring alone, as he has collected seven hits in 17 spring at-bats, including two doubles and two home runs. Of course, Miller had an outstanding spring in 2014 before a terrible first two months of the regular season, but his flashes of upside at the plate may have made him the preferred option to Taylor anyway.

However, Taylor was also hitting well in the spring, with eight hits in 19 at-bats, including a home run, a double and two triples. That power is particularly interesting, as Taylor showed little ability to hit anything but singles during his stint in the big leagues last season.

It’s an unlucky injury for Taylor, who also broke a pinkie last May when he was on the cusp of being called up to the majors. While Miller had the advantage for the starting job, Taylor was certainly making the case that he deserved a 25-man roster spot.

 

Winner: Miller by default

 

No. 5 Rotation Spot

Although there are a few other candidates, the final rotation spot always felt like it would come down to Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias. With a dominant spring so far, Walker has emerged as the clear front-runner.

In three spring starts, Walker has pitched eight shutout innings while allowing just two hits and one walk and striking out eight. Even if it’s just spring training, Walker is throwing strikes, his fastball is lively and he’s mixing in a changeup better than we’ve seen before.

The stuff appears to be there, but Walker said after Saturday’s outing that he is also improved with maturation, via Greg Johns of MLB.com.

“When I was younger I’d get men on base and I’d get frustrated and try to do so much so they wouldn’t score and it kind of got me in trouble. This year I’m keeping my composure when people get on and just work for ground balls and get the easy outs.”

Elias does have a chance as he as shown he can successfully pitch in the majors for a full season, but Walker’s upside and showing this spring may be too much to ignore. Walker’s potential is looking like it may start to produce some results this season.

 

Winner: Walker

 

Lefty Reliever

The Mariners assembled a pile of left-handed pitchers to compete for a bullpen spot to replace Joe Beimel. A couple of them emerged as front-runners to be the second lefty in the bullpen behind Charlie Furbush: Joe Saunders is one of the few candidates with major league experience and has only allowed a .628 OPS against lefties in his career, while the Mariners saw enough in David Rollins to select him in the Rule 5 Draft.

But it’s been unheralded Tyler Olson who has come out of nowhere to become a potential leading candidate. In six spring innings, Olson has allowed just one hit while striking out eight.

Of course, spring stats can be misleading, and Olson is coming off a decent but not great season as a 25-year-old starter at Double-A Jackson. Still, the upside Olson has shown might be enough to win him a roster spot, and he has looked dominant against batters from both sides of the plate.

Farm director Chris Gwynn offered his thoughts on Olson to Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune.

“He has a really good change-up, and he changes eye location. He knows what he’s doing.”

If the event of the Mariners carrying only one left-handed reliever, Carson Smith becomes the clear favorite for the spot.

 

Winner: Olson

 

Final Bench Spot

Taylor’s wrist injury also pretty much ends any competition for the final bench spot on Seattle’s roster. Rickie Weeks will make the roster and play some left field and first base, but the Mariners are probably going to want a backup middle infielder who can fill in at other positions in an emergency.

That means it’s going to be Willie Bloomquist, who looked like a prime candidate to be cut just a couple of weeks ago. Bloomquist has proven he has recovered enough from microfracture knee surgery to at least play, collecting three hits in 13 at-bats.

Taylor may have made the roster anyway even if he lost out to Miller. The Mariners could also give the spot to an unappealing outfielder (Stefen Romero, James Jones) or shortstop Ketel Marte, but Bloomquist appears most likely given current roster construction.

When Taylor gets healthy, the Mariners could make a change quickly.

 

Winner: Bloomquist (for now)

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Seattle Mariners Players Who Are in Serious Danger of Being Cut or Demoted

The Seattle Mariners will take the field for the first time since September tomorrow when they play the San Diego Padres in their opening spring training game.

Over the next month, the Mariners will make some key decisions on starting jobs and final roster spots. Brad Miller versus Chris Taylor for the starting shortstop position and Taijuan Walker against Roenis Elias for the No. 5 spot in the rotation will be the two key battles to watch prior to Opening Day.

Win or lose, all four of those players will have a place in Seattle at some point down the line. For others, this spring training could be critical for their future with the club.

Most long-term members of the organization will be safe either in Seattle or the minors after spring training, but a few are potentially on the chopping block.

 

Willie Bloomquist, UTIL

Bloomquist was brought in last offseason on a two-year, $5.8 million contract to act as Seattle’s primary utility man. Last season, he hit .278/.297/.346 while playing six different positions in 47 games before undergoing microfracture knee surgery in August.

That knee surgery is why Bloomquist is in danger of being cut this spring. While he has indicated he’s ready to play, according to Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune, it’s reasonable to expect that a 37-year-old may not be able to completely recover from a major knee operation.

The Mariners were concerned enough about Bloomquist to add Rickie Weeks on a one-year deal last month. Weeks projects as the club’s primary utility man and has much more upside at the plate than Bloomquist.

Seattle’s bench isn’t exactly set, and there’s certainly a possibility that both Weeks and Bloomquist could be on the final 25-man roster. But Bloomquist‘s role figures to be heavily reduced, and he could be gone if his recovery hits a setback or someone such as minor league utility man Shawn O’Malley flashes in the spring.

 

Erasmo Ramirez, SP

After a disastrous 5.26 ERA (5.38 FIP) performance last season, Ramirez’s future with the Mariners is in serious jeopardy.

He will compete for the final spot in the rotation in the spring. Given the upside of Walker and what Elias has already shown in the major leagues, it seems unlikely that Ramirez will win that battle.

Ramirez would work fine as minor league starting pitching depth in case of an emergency. However, the 24-year-old is out of options, meaning the Mariners would have to stick him in the bullpen or let him go.

Seattle could decide Ramirez is worth hanging onto and give him a relief role, as the projected bullpen dosen’t really have a long reliever. That would require the Mariners to go to an eight-man bullpen, in which case Carson Smith would be a much better candidate for a roster spot than Ramirez.

Manager Lloyd McClendon said that Ramirez isn’t even being considered for a bullpen position, via Greg Johns of MLB.com: “We’ve got some talented arms in that bullpen. The competition may be even stiffer down there.”

The best option would be to try and trade Ramirez near the end of the spring rather than cut him for nothing. Barring a monster spring training performance or some injuries, Ramirez doesn’t figure to be back in Seattle next season.

 

Jesus Sucre, C

In a somewhat controversial July, the Mariners released John Buck and committed to Sucre as the primary backup catcher. While Sucre posted a 26 wRC+ in 21 games, Seattle was pleased with his defense and receiving ability.

Still, Sucre will be challenged for his position this spring. His offense is going to be a liability over a full season and just about negates whatever defensive value he has, meaning the Mariners will likely look for an upgrade at some point.

Prospects John Hicks and Tyler Marlette will get looks this spring, but they are unlikely to break camp with the club over Sucre. Hicks in particular is a name to keep an eye on, as he appears to be on the cusp of the majors after an excellent performance at the plate in Double-A and the Arizona Fall League in 2014.

Sucre’s main challenger this spring will be veteran John Baker, who was brought in as a non-roster invitee. Baker has put together successful seasons at the plate in the past and is at least average defensively, although his 39 wRC+ in 68 games last year doesn’t inspire much confidence.

While Sucre would likely head to the minors rather than being cut, his role is in serious danger of being reduced. Either way, look for Hicks to take over a couple of months into the season.

 

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted

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Under-the-Radar Seattle Mariners Players Ready to Impress This Spring

Position players reported to the Seattle Mariners‘ team complex in Peoria, Arizona, on Tuesday, meaning the team is ready to begin organized workouts ahead of its first spring training game on March 4.

Significant news is already coming out of the Mariners camp after pitchers and catchers reported last Friday. Jesus Montero is apparently in the best shape of his life, Danny Hultzen has looked good in throwing sessions and James Paxton will miss a few days as a precaution after falling during an agility drill, all via Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times.

The most important things for the club in spring training are health and a couple of important roster battles. Seattle will be keeping a close eye on Chris Taylor and Brad Miller at shortstop and Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias in the rotation as they vie for starting jobs.

Even if it doesn’t impact the 2015 team as much as those roster battles, one of the most entertaining things in spring training is getting a chance to watch prospects and non-roster invitees in game action. Top Mariners prospects such as D.J. Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan will be there, but a few under-the-radar players are also ready to impress.

 

John Hicks, C

Although Mike Zunino has the starting catcher job locked down in Seattle for the foreseeable future, Hicks will be worth keeping an eye on in spring training and the minors this season. He broke out with the bat in a major way in 2014 and appears to be on the cusp of making the majors this season.

After a solid but unspectacular debut in Double-A during 2013, Hicks posted a .296/.362/.418 line with Jackson last season, which earned him a graduation to Triple-A for the final 28 games of the year. Hicks followed that up with a 153 wRC+ performance in 53 plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League.

Hicks has always been regarded as at least a decent defensive catcher who works well with young pitchers and is unusually athletic for his position. The Mariners added Hicks to their 40-man roster, indicating he could soon take over the backup job from Jesus Sucre, a good defensive catcher who can’t hit at all.

Mariners minor league coordinator Chris Gwynn said that Hicks needs to iron out some things on the mental side before he is ready for that and that this spring training will be very important, via Greg Johns of MLB.com:

“I think he probably still needs that grind of playing every day in Triple-A and mentally separating his hitting from his defense at a higher level. He needs to get some confidence in Spring Training that he can play with the guys he sees on TV. I don’t think he’s there yet, but he’s definitely on his way.”

If Hicks hits well in spring training and at least holds his own behind the plate, look for him to start getting more attention as Seattle’s best candidate for the backup catcher position later in the year.

 

Jordy Lara, 1B

Lara isn’t the prospect with the most upside at Mariners camp and is further away form the majors than someone such as Kivlehan or Hicks. Still, Lara put up impressive numbers at every level he reached in 2014 and will be interesting to watch at spring training.

The 23-year-old produced a .353/.413/.609 line with 22 home runs in 103 games of High-A in 2014. High Desert inflated those numbers a bit, but Lara’s park-adjusted 163 wRC+ ranked second in the California League.

That earned Lara a trip to Double-A for the final 33 games last year, where he backed up his High Desert performance with a .286/.326/.492 line. Gwynn said that Lara has some plus tools and could be figuring it out after a rough start to his professional career, via Danny Wild of MiLB.com:

“He could just be a late bloomer. He played two seasons at Pulaski and finally, when he got his opportunity, he was able to put together a really, really good year. His on-base ability was really good, he has right-handed power and has a really good arm.”

Despite all that, Lara went unprotected and unselected in this year’s Rule 5 draft, indicating what teams think of his value. If Lara performs well in spring training and keeps putting up those kinds of numbers, he will start to rise up Seattle’s prospect rankings.

Besides Lara’s bat, this spring could be critical in terms of his future position. It’s unclear if Lara can stick at first base, and the Mariners said they will give him time in the outfield, according to Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune:

 

Ketel Marte, SS

Marte is very young for his level, and he put up some strong numbers during his ascension from Single-A Clinton in the summer of 2013 to Triple-A last September. With a strong performance in spring training and Triple-A to begin the year, Marte can further establish himself as one of Seattle’s top prospects and get some more attention nationally.

After playing just 19 games in High Desert the year before, Marte started 2014 in Double-A and posted a .302/.319/.404 line with 23 stolen bases and plus defense at the shortstop position. Marte impressively moved to Triple-A at the end of the season at the age of 20.

This spring, he’ll get a chance to showcase the skills that make him an interesting prospect moving forward. Marte has two players between him and a starting shortstop job in the majors, but his ability to make contact (strikeout rate of 13.8 percent in Jackson last year) and his plus speed make him an ideal top-of-the-order hitter somewhere down the line.

 

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise indicated

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Complete Seattle Mariners 2015 Spring Training Preview

After an exciting winter, the Seattle Mariners are nearly ready to begin the 2015 season.

Pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 20 to officially start spring training. Coming off of an encouraging 87-75 season and bolstered by some key offseason acquisitions, Seattle appears to be in its best shape to compete for the postseason in a number of years.

The Mariners found out just how much of an impact spring training can make prior to last season. Both Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker went down with injuries, leaving Seattle’s projected rotation in a bit of disarray.

Fortunately, the Mariners got a great season out of Chris Young and were able to discover a diamond in the rough in Roenis Elias due to the injuries. With less apparent depth this year, Seattle’s No. 1 priority in the spring is to have everyone healthy for Opening Day.

Seattle won’t have many roster battles to decide, with the majority of the starting lineup and rotation set. Still, those two or three spots up for grabs will be critical for a team on the fringe of contention.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise indicated

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Seattle Mariners’ 5 Most Important Players for 2015 Success

The Seattle Mariners enter the 2015 season with high hopes of making the postseason for the first time in 13 years.

By adding Nelson Cruz, Justin Ruggiano and Seth Smith, the Mariners addressed the biggest weaknesses of a team that fell one game short a year ago. None of those players are projected to be game-changers on their own, but they are worth a few wins over what Seattle had at those positions previously.

Even with these additions, Seattle is still led by a core of Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, Kyle Seager and Hisashi Iwakuma. Those players need to perform at an elite level for the Mariners to compete.

They very likely will. It’s the play of a few others that will determine exactly how far the Mariners can go.

Austin Jackson and Mike Zunino are among Seattle’s most important players for 2015 success.

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Projecting the Seattle Mariners’ 2015 Opening Day Roster

With the MLB offseason winding down, most teams around the league have a solid idea of what their 25-man rosters will look like come Opening Day.

The Seattle Mariners made some critical improvements over the offseason and look ready to compete for a playoff spot. With the additions of Nelson Cruz, Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano, the Mariners have one of the strongest rosters in the American League on paper.

Only three starting positions remain up for grabs: shortstop, one spot in the rotation and one spot in the bullpen. The majority of roster battles in spring training will be for bench roles.

Seattle may not be done making moves, as it could use more depth at first base or the outfield. Bob Dutton of The News Tribune indicates that the Mariners might interested in re-signing Joe Beimel for that last bullpen spot.

As the roster currently stands, Seattle’s projected starting lineup looks strong while the bench looks weak.

 

Infielders

1B Logan Morrison

2B Robinson Cano

SS Brad Miller

3B Kyle Seager

UTIL Willie Bloomquist

 

Cano and Seager are obvious locks, while Morrison won the starting first base job by posting a 127 wRC+ in the second half of 2014. The other two infield roster spots are yet to be decided.

General manager Jack Zduriencik indicated there was “no favorite right now” between Miller and Chris Taylor for the starting shortstop position, via Dutton

Seattle could platoon the two, but Miller likely has the slight edge due to his higher ceiling and ability to hit for power. The Mariners must then decide if Taylor should have the final bench spot or if it should go to Bloomquist.

Taylor clearly has more upside and Bloomquist is a 37-year-old coming off of major knee surgery. Still, the Mariners will probably favor Bloomquist’s versatility and might be hesitant to cut the veteran.

If Bloomquist’s recovery hits any setbacks, look for Taylor or utility man Carlos Rivero to get the last bench spot.

There’s also the fact that Bloomquist is one of the few depth players on the 40-man roster with even minimal experience at first base. Jesus Montero is also a possibility and fits a need as a right-handed first baseman, but he has quite a lot to prove before the organization will be willing to call him up.

 

Outfielders

LF Dustin Ackley

CF Austin Jackson

RF Seth Smith

OF Justin Ruggiano

OF/DH Nelson Cruz

OF James Jones

 

The top four outfielders are set, including what figures to be a fairly strict platoon in right field. Cruz won’t play the outfield unless it’s an emergency, leaving one more outfield bench position.

None of the current options are exactly appealing. As it stands, the competition will likely come down to Stefen Romero and James Jones.

Romero got off to an unimpressive start in the big leagues last year with a .192/.234/.299 line and -1.2 WAR in 72 games. Jones wasn’t much more impressive at the plate but has the decisive advantage due to his speed and base-stealing ability.

Seattle could use some more depth in the outfield. There isn’t much left in free agency, although the Mariners recently brought back Endy Chavez on a minor-league deal, per Dutton

One in-house option could be converting Miller to the outfield, which in turn might open up a bench spot for Taylor.

 

Catchers

C Mike Zunino

C Jesus Sucre

 

The Mariners have put a lot on Zunino’s plate early in his career and could use an upgrade at backup catcher. Even so, Greg Johns of MLB.com reported last December that Seattle was happy with its current catching situation.

Sucre is regarded as a good defensive catcher, and his receiving ability was the reason the Mariners let go of John Buck last July. Defense is the most important trait for a backup catcher, so it’s not a pressing need, but Sucre is too much of a liability at the plate.

One more name to keep an eye on is intriguing prospect John Hicks. Hicks dominated the Arizona Fall League with a 153 wRC+ and shouldn’t need much more seasoning in Triple-A.

 

Starting Pitchers

SP Felix Hernandez

SP Hisashi Iwakuma

SP James Paxton

SP J.A. Happ

SP Taijuan Walker

 

The first three are locked in if healthy. Manager Lloyd McClendon all but guaranteed Happ a spot in the rotation at Seattle’s pre-spring training media conference, saying, “we didn’t acquire Happ to pitch out of the bullpen,” via Dutton. 

The fifth spot will be decided between Walker and Roenis Elias. Walker gets the edge due to his tremendous upside and Elias’ injury concerns, but the 26-year-old Cuban was impressive in his rookie year and has a place in the club’s future.

No team is going to make it through the year with only five starters, so Elias will get his shot eventually. The Mariners may also choose to keep him in the majors in a long-relief role.

 

Bullpen

CL Fernando Rodney

RHP Tom Wilhelmsen

LHP Charlie Furbush

RHP Yoervis Medina

RHP Danny Farquhar

RHP Dominic Leone

LHP David Rollins

 

Seattle will return the majority of what was an outstanding bullpen in 2014. Brandon Maurer was traded to the San Diego Padres and Beimel is still a free agent, but Seattle has the depth to replace those losses.

The biggest decision will be which left-hander makes the roster, as the Mariners will likely want one more lefty behind Furbush. Rollins, Edgar Olmos and Mike Kickham are among those who will battle for one spot in spring training.

Rollins has posted solid numbers in the minors and must stay on the active roster as a Rule 5 pick if Seattle wishes to retain him. Kickham was ranked by Baseball America as the San Francisco Giants‘ No.5 prospect just two years ago and could be a sneaky-good acquisition if he manages to reach his potential.

One more player with a chance to win a spot is Carson Smith, who looked a potentially dominant closer of the future in his September stint last year. It’s hard to see who Smith would beat out of spring training, but Medina’s job could be in jeopardy a little further down the line.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted. 

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3 Things Seattle Mariners Still Need to Do Before the Start of Spring Training

With the additions of Nelson Cruz, Justin Ruggiano and Seth Smith, the 2015 Seattle Mariners roster is nearly complete.

Seattle did a nice job of addressing its major needs while only adding payroll and trading marginal prospects. At the very least, this team looks ready to contend for a playoff spot.

With a few minor tweaks, the Mariners can contend for even more. Any remaining roster battles will be settled in spring training, but Seattle has a few things to accomplish before pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 20.

 

Sign a left-handed reliever

Lloyd McClendon did a nice job of managing Seattle’s bullpen last season by avoiding relying too much on matchups and defined roles. Still, the Mariners would like to add another left-handed specialist before the spring, as Charlie Furbush is currently the only returning lefty reliever.

Rule 5 selection David Rollins and waiver-wire addition Edgar Olmos are likely the next left-handers in line. Relievers can be volatile from year to year, so going with one of the young, inexpensive options is not a bad idea.

Even so, Seattle’s best move right now might be re-signing Joe Beimel. Bob Dutton of The Tacoma News Tribune reported last month that the Mariners were interested in bringing back the veteran after he posted a 2.20 ERA (4.18 FIP) in 45 innings.

Beimel seems unlikely to pitch at quite the same level at 37 years old, but he’ll be cheap and it would be nice to have another lefty with some major league experience. If Beimel struggles, the Mariners would have Olmos or Rollins waiting in Triple-A.

 

Look for depth in the outfield and at first base

Seattle’s starting lineup appears to be set for 2015 after trading for Smith last week. What the Mariners need now is some bench depth.

Two areas, in particular, stand out as weak in terms of depth: the outfield and first base. The Mariners have a capable starting outfield, but it’s dependent on Dustin Ackley continuing his 2014 second-half surge and Austin Jackson successfully bouncing back from his poor performance after the trade deadline.

First base is even more of a concern. While Logan Morrison earned the starting job by posting a 127 wRC+ in the second half last year, he’s been inconsistent and injury-prone throughout his career.

If Morrison goes down for an extended period of time, the Mariners would likely have to turn to Jesus Montero or hope prospects D.J. Peterson and Patrick Kivlehan develop quickly. It seems likely that the Mariners will need 30-plus games from another first baseman, and the current replacement options are not appealing.

An ideal addition would be a right-handed first baseman who could be stashed in Triple-A at the beginning of the season if necessary. Allen Craig is also still out there as a potentially interesting trade option.

Although Craig’s poor 2014 season and foot problems are very concerning, he’s a good buy-low candidate who won’t cost much beyond some added payroll. Craig could shield Morrison from left-handers and fill in as an outfielder in an emergency.

Of course, the Mariners don’t need Craig badly enough where they should give up anyone of much value to acquire him. Erasmo Ramirez could be used as part of a package to acquire some depth, as he is out of minor league options and figures to be shopped around before the season.

 

Figure out the shortstop situation

The Mariners don’t necessarily need to firmly commit to either Brad Miller or Chris Taylor before the season starts. Both can exist on the 25-man roster, and Seattle may choose to platoon the two.

Miller should have the upper hand for now, as he has much more power potential. Still, Taylor’s defense and baserunning make him a valuable player, even if he is just a singles hitter.

Even if they don’t officially name a starter, the Mariners need to have some idea for a plan at shortstop so they can properly manage their bench going into spring training.

If Miller indeed gets the nod, would the Mariners be willing to use a 25-man roster spot on a player who can only play shortstop with a thin bench? Dutton indicates Seattle may send Taylor back to Triple-A if that were the case.

Miller needs to get as many reps in the outfield as possible if the Mariners decide to platoon the position or start Taylor. Miller could add more value to the bench as the fifth outfielder than Stefen Romero or James Jones.

All stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted.

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