Archive for October, 2014

Andrew Friedman’s Baseball Genius, Dodgers Resources Are Dangerous MLB Marriage

Between all their riches and all their star power, the other 29 teams in Major League Baseball already had good reasons to fear the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now you can add another to the list: The Dodgers have gone and hired a certified baseball genius to run the show.

As Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times was first to report, the Dodgers have lured Andrew Friedman away from his job as the general manager of the Tampa Bay Rays:

According to Ramona Shelburne of ESPN Los Angeles, the Dodgers are making Friedman their president of baseball operations. With incumbent GM Ned Colletti stepping aside to become a senior adviser to Dodgers president and CEO Stan Kasten, Friedman is free to hire his own GM.

Basically, the Dodgers are making Friedman what the Chicago Cubs made former Boston Red Sox GM Theo Epstein: the big boss in charge of everything.

And in so doing, the Dodgers are effectively going to run the highly intriguing experiment the Red Sox wanted to run back in 2002, when they almost pried Billy Beane away from the Oakland A’s. They’re going to find out what a successful small-market executive can do with a big-market budget.

Time will tell. But right now, it’s beyond easy to imagine the answer being quite a lot.

You won’t be very impressed by Friedman’s track record if you focus only on what his Rays did in 2014. They went 77-85 and finished 19 games out of first place in the AL East. Nothing to write home about there.

Of course, it’s better if you don’t focus on 2014. To get the real gist of how the big-money Dodgers were drawn to Friedman, you need to focus on the teams he built between 2008 and 2013.

With some help from Baseball-Reference.com and Cot’s Baseball Contracts:

That’s five 90-win seasons out of six, complete with two AL East titles, four trips to the playoffs and one American League pennant.

That’s good stuff for an organization with a payroll that went as low as $43.7 million and never climbed higher than $75 million. Especially in a division featuring two of the biggest payroll titans around in the Red Sox and New York Yankees.

Friedman didn’t establish such a track record through blind luck. Under him, the Rays had a system.

Topkin outlined all the different aspects of this system in an excellent article last year, highlighting how Friedman’s Rays were a perfect mix of “intelligent, organized, prepared, creative, thorough and forward-thinking.”

Surely, it’s only through a combination of all those traits that an organization can do so many things well. Such as:

  • Digging up bargain free agents, such as Casey Kotchman in 2011, Jeff Keppinger and Fernando Rodney in 2012 or James Loney in 2013.
  • Finding hidden gems in trades of big-name players, such as Ben Zobrist in the 2006 Aubrey Huff trade, Matt Joyce in the 2008 Edwin Jackson trade or, more recently, Drew Smyly in this summer’s David Price blockbuster.
  • Locking up young stars to team-friendly, long-term contracts, such as Evan Longoria in 2008, Matt Moore in 2011 or Chris Archer in 2014.
  • Continually churning out good young pitchers, from Price to Moore to Archer to Alex Cobb to Jeremy Hellickson to Jake McGee.

And finding talent wasn’t the only thing the Rays excelled at under Friedman.

His system also involved coming up with all the data that turned Joe Maddon into baseball’s most innovative manager. Just as important, the Rays system placed a special emphasis on keeping players healthy.

Especially pitchers, as Topkin noted:

“They devote tremendous time and energy into injury prevention: like their shoulder exercise program for pitchers that not only is individually tailored, but mandatory and monitored.”

Tampa Bay’s methods for keeping pitchers healthy have worked like a charm. Disabled-list data cobbled together by Jeff Zimmerman at FanGraphs for the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons can vouch. And as B/R’s Will Carroll noted, Moore’s Tommy John operation earlier this year came as a total shock in light of the organization’s track record with elbows. 

All this leads us to a quote from Maddon to Topkin that pretty much says it all: “I want to believe that the overarching theme here is that the system works.”

Indeed it did. And that Friedman was able to make it all work despite his resources being restricted by the Rays’ perennially poor attendance and a local TV contract that, per FanGraphs’ Wendy Thurm, is only worth $20 million a year makes it that much more impressive.

And there, obviously, is the scary part about Friedman joining the Dodgers: He’s going from limited resources to basically unlimited resources.

There’s certainly no attendance problem at Dodger Stadium, as the Dodgers have ranked first in the National League in attendance the last two seasons. To boot, the club has a local TV contract worth several hundred million dollars per year. 

The Dodgers’ revenue supply is pretty much endless. And as this year’s $230 million payroll can vouch, Magic Johnson and the rest of the club’s ownership group sure don’t mind spending said revenue.

In Friedman’s hands, that revenue could be used to turn the practically flawless system he had in Tampa Bay into an actually flawless system. One that will direct him toward legit stars worthy of the Dodgers’ riches rather than bargains worthy of fliers, with everything else being perfectly geared toward keeping the club’s roster cohesive and effective.

If there’s a concern about Friedman joining the Dodgers, it’s the one that ESPN’s Buster Olney (subscription required) brought up about how much Friedman will be allowed to be himself in Los Angeles.

The current Dodgers leadership may not mind spending, but it veers “sharply from day to day, seemingly valuing star power as much as WAR.” This is true, and you do wonder if the taste for flash the Dodgers ownership has displayed could encroach on Friedman’s more methodical style. There is room for this partnership to go awry.

Then again, you don’t target a guy like Friedman unless you admire his style. And because Shelburne noted that a “handful of teams” had tried to get Friedman out of Tampa Bay before the Dodgers, they must have made it clear that they weren’t just looking for him to come aboard and stay the course.

Nope, this should be the real deal: the Dodgers owners as the investors and Friedman as the architect. This figures to be arguably the game’s sharpest executive at the controls of the game’s most powerful spending machine.

Rather than a disaster, the Dodgers are more likely signing up for a dynasty.

 

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Royals P Brandon Finnegan Gives Fan Free Tickets to ALCS Game

Given that the Kansas City Royals are playing in their first postseason in 29 years, ticket prices to the playoff games are quite expensive. Not everyone can afford to drop a silly amount of money on American League Championship Series passes, so some fans are looking for alternative ways to get into a game.

One fan found a way in just by using Twitter.

Last week, a Royals fan sent out a bunch of tweets looking for tickets.

It never hurts to ask, right?

Well, someone came through for the fan. Kansas City reliever Brandon Finnegan offered him free tickets to an ALCS matchup. 

However, after Game 3 was postponed due to rain, Finnegan made sure the fan knew the tickets were for Game 4, which got pushed back to Wednesday. 

The 21-year-old reliever exchanged some more tweets with the fan and even offered to grab a bite with him at some point.

The fan was obviously pretty happy with how things turned out.

The Royals really are doing everything they can to thank the fans. After sweeping the Los Angeles Angels in the American League Division Series, the team invited fans to a celebration party and footed the bill. Now, a player is hooking up one couple with playoff tickets.

Kansas City’s Cinderella story just continues to get better and better.

[Twitter, h/t Fox Sports]

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Kansas City Royals Fan Scores ALCS Tickets After Asking a Player on Twitter

Since the growth of Twitter, it has allowed fans and players to connect like never before. One Kansas City Royals fan sent a tweet to Royals rookie reliever Brandon Finnegan, asking him if he could hook him up with playoff tickets.

Nicholas Knappe, the fan who sent the request, got a response a little more than an hour later from Finnegan. In fact, he got more than what he asked.

Finnegan asked if he and his girlfriend could attend Tuesday’s game in Kansas City. Knappe responded and said yes. Finnegan added that he could snag two more tickets.

But that is not where it ends.

Due to Game 3 being rained out, Finnegan followed up with Knappe on Monday afternoon to see if he could attend a game on another day. Knappe was appreciative of Finnegan for helping out and offered to take him out for dinner in Kansas City. However, Finnegan said he did not have to pay for it and will cover dinner himself instead.

The Twitter conversation between Knappe and Finnegan went viral today. Knappe heard about the positive reception from the public and tweeted his thoughts.

In addition to the Royals receiving a lot of positive hype from the media and being labeled as America’s team, this is another positive story for the Royals.

Finnegan became the first player from the 2014 MLB draft to be promoted to the majors. He struck out three players against the Oakland Athletics on September 30 in the AL Wild Card Game. On October 3, during Game 2 of the American League Divisional Series against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Finnegan came on in relief and won, becoming the youngest relief pitcher in Royals postseason history to earn a win.

The Royals and Baltimore Orioles play Game 3 tonight and will have Game 4 tomorrow afternoon, both at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals lead the series 2-0.

 

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Why the J.J. Hardy Contract Extension Is a Great Move for O’s

On October 8, Shortstop J.J. Hardy agreed to a contract extension that will keep him in black and orange until 2017, per John Perrotto of USA Today. The deal contains a vesting option for 2018, assuming Hardy reaches a predetermined number of at-bats. Considering Hardy has only missed 61 games since joining the O’s, it seems like a good bet the club won’t have to worry about shortstop for the next four years.

As for the financials, the deal is worth $40 million.

While some might find it interesting that Hardy was granted such a sweet deal in the midst of one of his worst offensive seasons since joining Baltimore, those critics aren’t taking into account all of the little things that Hardy does well, better than nearly every other big league shortstop.

It’s well known that Hardy is one of the better fielding shortstops in the game today, as evidenced by back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2012 and 2013, but the impact he’s had on the O’s since coming over in a truly one-sided deal in 2011 has been striking.

Year Fielding % MLB rank Runs Saved MLB rank
2009 0.985 14th -10 19th
2010 0.982 18th -26 23rd
J.J. Hardy Traded to Baltimore
2011 0.982 22nd -20 22nd
2012 0.983 18th -12 20th
2013 0.991 1st 19 11th
2014 0.986 6th 50 3rd

In addition to being an integral part of the best defensive unit (by fielding percentage) in baseball history in 2013, Hardy has also done well for himself on a personal level. Despite playing just four seasons in Baltimore, he already has the 10th-highest defensive WAR (8.3) in team history.

To truly gauge the impact of Hardy, one has to take into account the impact he has at the plate as well. In fact, one can make the argument that he was the top-hitting shortstop in the American League in 2014.

  AVG OBP SLG 2B HR RBI R WAR
J.J. Hardy 0.268 0.309 0.372 28 9 52 56 3.4
Jose Reyes 0.287 0.328 0.398 33 9 51 94 3.1
Alcides Escobar 0.285 0.317 0.377 34 3 50 74 2.4
Erick Aybar 0.278 0.321 0.379 30 7 68 77 3.9

The thing that gives the other three the edge is their runs scored, higher OBP and steals. This all makes sense, of course, because they’re all top-of-the-order hitters in their respective lineups. Looking beyond the standard measurements for hitting is where Hardy really edges ahead.

  Two-Strikes RISP 2-out, RISP High Leverage
Hardy .256/.297/.328 .315/.362/.413 .341/.383/.364 .266/.317/.298
Reyes .243/.300/.342 .225/.278/.287 .206/.270/.265 .308/.360/.433
Escobar .225/.263/.273 .277/.302/.405 .229/.264/.337 .252/.279/.341
Aybar .187/.248/.261 .266/.319/.392 .200/.273/.300 .250/.284/.333

While Hardy’s home run total was down from his usual pace, he was a master at driving in runners in scoring position.

Taking into account that 2014 was a down year offensively for Hardy, it makes more sense to factor in the damage he did during his first three years as an Oriole when comparing him to some of the best shortstops in baseball.

  AVG OBP SLG 2B HR RBI R SB WAR dWAR
J.J. Hardy   0.259 0.301 0.420 112 86 276 283 2 14.7 8.3
Troy Tulowitzki 0.311 0.389 0.548 89 84 266 257 13 17.3 4.0
Jose Reyes 0.301 0.352 0.437 121 37 189 339 124 13.0 -2.2
Hanley Ramirez 0.277 0.351 0.464 105 67 265 260 65 10.4 -2.3

More home runs than Tulowitzki, more doubles than Ramirez and a higher defensive WAR than all three combined. Toss in two Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger and ZERO on- or off-the-field distractions in four years, and it’s no wonder the O’s were so keen to lock Hardy up.

Even more impressive is that the O’s only paid Hardy $26,850,000 for those four years of production while Tulowitzki was paid $39,750,000, Reyes $47,000,000 and Ramirez a whopping $57,500,000.

Still, this new contract isn’t about the past. It’s about what the O’s expect from Hardy going forward. Considering he’ll be 37 years old during the final year of his deal, it could be a gamble for the front office. This is where Dan Duquette and Co. earn high praise.

Hardy has never been known for his speed. He’s never been known for his high-walk or low-strikeout totals. He’s never been considered a flashy defender. What he is is a solid defender who puts himself in great position before the ball ever gets hit to him, eliminating the need for diving plays or throws from the outfield. What he is is a power-hitting shortstop who drives in runs even when he’s not hitting home runs.

Aging four years shouldn’t hinder Hardy’s ability to do any of these things.

 

All advanced statistics via Baseball-Reference.com

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Rays’ Andrew Friedman Joining Dodgers, Replaced by Matt Silverman

The Los Angeles Dodgers are bolstering their front office at the expense of the Tampa Bay Rays, as the two-time defending National League West champions have hired former Rays general manager Andrew Friedman to be their president of baseball operations.

The team confirmed the move Tuesday, adding that current Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti will remain in a senior role:

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports first reported the news.

According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Friedman’s pact with the Dodgers means Rays president Matt Silverman will take lead baseball operations:

Per Shi Davidi of SportsNet Canada, the Rays will make Brian Auld their new team president to take the spot vacated by Silverman’s promotion:

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times notes that Friedman has been on the Dodgers’ radar for some time now:

ESPN’s Buster Olney talks about what Friedman’s first move in charge should be:

Friedman has been an instrumental part of building Tampa Bay into a perennial playoff contender since becoming general manager after the 2005 MLB season. The Rays made the postseason four times during his tenure, including going to the World Series in 2008, despite being hampered by payroll restrictions. Their 2014 payroll of just under $77 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, was among the lowest in baseball.

Now, Friedman will be leading a front office that spent $229 million to field a 2014 team that lost to St. Louis in the National League Division Series.

The transition won’t be as drastic for the Rays. Even though they are losing one of the best business minds in baseball, Silverman has been team president for eight years and worked with Friedman to build those postseason teams.

 

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.

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Why Norichika Aoki Will Lead the Kansas City Royals to Victory in ALCS

Assuming Mother Nature is on her best behavior, the American League Championship Series between the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals will resume Tuesday night in Kansas City.

That means it’s time for the Royals to unleash their secret weapon: right fielder Norichika Aoki

Clutch hitting by Alex Gordon and Alcides Escobar gave the Royals an early 2-0 series edge, but Aoki will be the one to take them to the World Series, a place they haven’t been since 1985.

Heroes come in all shapes and sizes. Aoki is of the smaller variety, a 5’9″ slap-hitter with speed for days.

The postseason is a game of inches and every base counts. With 67 steals over the last three seasons, Aoki is always a threat to change the game with his speed.

Even if all Aoki does is distract the pitcher when he’s on first base, he’ll be making a major impact. We saw Orioles closer Zach Britton have a meltdown in Game 2 trying to keep an eye on Terrance Gore at second base. Aoki has that same potential.

Of course, in order to show off those wheels, Aoki must first get on base. That hasn’t been a problem for the 32-year-old.

What he lacks in power, Aoki more than makes up for in consistency. In three seasons in the major leagues, he’s never produced a batting average lower than .285.

Aoki has been especially dangerous in his home park. In 254 at-bats, including the postseason, Aoki is a .323 career hitter at Kauffman Stadium. That bodes well for the Royals, who are hosting the Orioles in Games 3-5 (if necessary).

Aoki has a .343 batting average against Baltimore this year with eight runs scored in 35 at-bats. Only one of those 35 at-bats resulted in a strikeout. 

That figure suggests Aoki is making solid contact each time he comes to the plate. Anything can happen when the ball is in play, and right now, Aoki is doing exactly that. 

What makes Aoki so tough to get out is that he’s essentially matchup-proof. Left-handed hitters tend to struggle against lefty pitching, but that’s never been the case for Aoki. In fact, according to ESPN.com, he hit much better against southpaws (.363 in 124 at-bats) during the regular season than he did versus right-handers (.259 in 367 at-bats).

Orioles relievers Zach Britton and Andrew Miller were dominant during the regular season, combining for a 1.82 ERA across 138.2 innings. However, Aoki’s prowess against lefties neutralizes what would have been a clear advantage for Baltimore.

After hitting leadoff for most of the regular season, Royals manager Ned Yost discovered late in the season that Aoki was a better fit in the No. 2 spot. Moving down in the order has made a world of difference for Aoki, who is hitting .385 in the 2-hole compared to just .270 as a leadoff hitter.

With so many strengths and very few weaknesses, Aoki has the ability to take over this series, and when he does, the Royals will be partying like it’s 1985.

Eric Hosmer paid for the last round of drinks. Now it’s your turn, Nori.

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2014 NLCS Game 3: Giants vs. Cardinals Preview and Prediction

The National League Championship Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants is tied at one game apiece as we head into the always important Game 3.

On the hill for the Cardinals will be October veteran John Lackey. Opposing him is Tim Hudson, another pitcher with a ton of postseason experience. After Kolten Wong’s late-game heroics in Game 2, we should be in store for another exciting game. 

Bleacher Report National MLB Columnist Scott Miller joins Stephen Nelson to break down the game and predict its winner.

Who will take Game 3? Watch the video and let us know! 

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. S.F. Giants Game 3: Live Score and NLCS Highlights

FINAL SCORE: Giants def. Cardinals, 5-4 (Giants lead series, 2-1)

 

The San Francisco Giants watched Kolten Wong walk-off Game 2 of the NLCS in St. Louis.

On Tuesday, the Giants flipped the script on the Cardinals, as they pushed across the game-winning run in the bottom of the 10th inning on a throwing error by reliever Randy Choate.

The Giants jumped out to an early lead with four first-inning runs off starting pitcher John Lackey, with Hunter Pence (RBI double) and Travis Ishikawa (three-run double) delivering the big blows in the frame.

However, Lackey would bounce back after the shaky start to turn in five consecutive scoreless innings. After giving up four hits in the first inning, Lackey allowed just one knock the rest of the way—a single to Tim Hudson in the fourth—before giving way to Marco Gonzales in the seventh.

Hudson kept the Cardinals off the board until the fourth inning, when red-hot rookie Kolten Wong delivered a two-run double to cut the lead in half.

St. Louis added another run in the sixth inning on a single by Jhonny Peralta, and then Randal Grichuk tied the game with a solo home run off Hudson with one out in the seventh, ending the veteran right-hander’s afternoon.

Hudson allowed four runs on seven hits over 6.1 innings and struck out five batters in his first career LCS start.

The Giants managed just two baserunners against Cardinal pitchers after the first inning before Brandon Crawford coaxed a leadoff walk against Randy Choate to open the 10th. The next batter, Juan Perez, blew two consecutive bunt attempts but came through with a single to left field, putting runners on first and second with no outs.

Gregor Blanco followed Perez with a sacrifice bunt toward the third base line, but Choate’s overthrow of first baseman Matt Adams, which sent the ball far up the right field line, allowed Crawford to score the game-winning run.

The NLCS continues tomorrow with Game 4 at 8 p.m. ET in San Francisco, as Ryan Vogelsong will attempt to put the Giants within one game of another trip to the World Series. Shelby Miller is expected to start for the Cardinals.

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MLB Playoffs 2014: Day 11 Schedule, Updated ALCS and NLCS Predictions

Those of us who expected to see Game 3 of the American League Championship Series on Monday evening will just have to wait a little longer. Some torrential rains doused Kansas City, forcing a postponement to Tuesday.

Here’s a look at what the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals would have been dealing with otherwise, via Sports Illustrated:

While this proves to be a bit of a setback in the schedules of MLB enthusiasts everywhere, there is still some upside: With the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants already set to take the field on Tuesday for Game 3 of the National League Championship Series, we’re in for a compelling postseason doubleheader.

Before we delve into predicting the eventual outcome of each series, let’s first take a look at the updated schedule for Day 11 of the playoffs.

 

NLCS Prediction

It’s uncanny how the Cardinals and Giants are similar in so many ways. Not only do both of these teams have quite a track record in the postseason, but they’ve been putting up some very similar numbers entering a Game 3 set to break the series stalemate.

On Tuesday, 35-year-old John Lackey and 39-year-old Tim Hudson take the mound for St. Louis and San Francisco, respectively. Through one start each in this year’s playoffs, here’s how the two pitchers have fared:

Perhaps the only difference between these two teams entering Game 3 is the way they’re scoring runs. St. Louis has been relying on the long ball, notching 11 home runs through six games, but San Francisco has been leaning on tough at-bats, accumulating a team .242 batting average.

So, where does all of this lead to a full series prediction?

Well, considering Hudson was virtually flawless in St. Louis earlier this season, going seven strong innings while allowing just three hits and zero runs in an 8-0 win, and the fact that the Giants are headed back to San Francisco with a road win, San Francisco should win Game 3 and gain just enough momentum to edge the Cardinals out in the end.

Prediction: Giants in seven

 

ALCS Prediction

The Orioles have dug themselves into quite a hole. Losing not one, but two home games against a surging Royals team brings tremendous cause for concern. After all, while Kansas City may not have been a powerhouse during the regular season, it sure is in the playoffs.

Perhaps the most well-rounded postseason team, the Royals combine a decent enough rotation with some very good pitching out of the bullpen, solid baserunning, efficiency at the plate and some newfound slugging power.

Meanwhile, the Orioles starters haven’t been able to last on the mound against the Royals, and the team hasn’t had enough effectiveness from its bullpen to notch a late-game win.

After all, reliever Darren O’Day has taken the loss in both ALCS contests to Royals reliever Wade Davis. There’s no reason to think we shouldn’t expect more of the same in Kansas City.

Here’s a glimpse at a small portion of the work Davis has done against Baltimore thus far, via MLB:

Let’s not take anything away from the Orioles here—they are a very good team. Unfortunately, they just happen to be outmatched in practically every phase of the game and now must attempt to climb out of an 0-2 hole in three road games.

This series will not make it back to Baltimore.

Prediction: Royals in five

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Detroit Tigers: 2014’s Most Defining Moments

The Detroit Tigers’ 2014 season certainly had its ups and downs. During a roller coaster ride of a year, Detroit started the campaign with an offseason full of hope and promise. Then the roller coaster officially started.

The Tigers experienced more highs and lows than most. They went from a runaway division favorite to being in danger of missing the playoffs. In the end, thanks to some key performances and acquisitions, the team pulled out a fourth consecutive American League Central title.

Unfortunately, the success found in the division did not carry over to the playoffs as Detroit was swept by Baltimore in three games.

Here are some of those high and low points, or in other words, the most defining moments of the season.

 

 

All stats courtesy of http://www.baseball-reference.com/ unless otherwise noted.

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