Archive for September, 2014

Pittsburgh Pirates: Is Edinson Volquez the Right Choice for the Wild Card Game?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have one chance to get it right if they want to advance to the National League Division Series.

As reported by ESPN, the team announced Monday that Edinson Volquez will start the Wild Card game Wednesday against the San Francisco Giants in front of what’s sure to be a raucous crowd at PNC Park. But is that the right choice?

As with any situation, there are two sides to every story.

Some fans see Volquez as the man who had the highest earned-run average of any starter in Major League Baseball last year. He posted a 5.71 ERA while pitching most of his games for the San Diego Padres in Petco Park, a cavernous stadium known to favor pitchers.

They also see a man who, in his only previous playoff start, allowed four runs in 1.2 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2010 National League Division Series.

Those old stats are history, although history does have a way of repeating itself.

Fans would be a lot more concerned if Volquez, who signed for $5 million before this season, didn’t put together a spectacular year for the Pirates in 2014.

He leads the team in wins (13), earned run average (3.04) and innings pitched (192.2). That’s not to mention Volquez is currently engaged in a career-best scoreless-innings streak that is up to 18 innings.

That scoreless-innings streak has gone a long way in helping him record a 1.08 ERA in September, a number that is the second-lowest in the National League in September.

Volquez is the third starter on the team behind Francisco Liriano, who won last year’s National League Wild Card game against the Cincinnati Reds, and Gerrit Cole.

However, Cole pitched on Sunday when the National League Central was still up for grabs, and Liriano pitched the day before, giving up three earned runs in five innings.

That means Volquez is the only viable option left who has the traditional five days of rest.

But that doesn’t mean there’s not concern.

Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout made the case that Volquez’ secondary numbers aren’t nearly as good as his ERA suggests.

That’s not to mention Volquez is walking 3.3 batters per nine innings to go along with his league-high 15 wild pitches and 14 hit-batters.

Wilmoth is of the opinion that the Pirates should have held Cole out of the game Sunday and saved him for Wednesday.

The take here is that starting Cole was the right choice, as the team still had a chance to tie the St. Louis Cardinals for the division title. Things didn’t work out that way, and it’s always easy to second-guess in hindsight.

Tom Singer of MLB.com also agrees with the team’s decision to give the ball to Volquez, given his stellar performance in the second half of the season.

Keeping the ball in the park is one element that makes Volquez the Pirates’ hottest pitcher, and a logical choice for the first postseason assignment,” Singer said. “He has fashioned a 1.78 ERA across his last 12 starts, and has not lost since his first outing following the All-Star Game.

Volquez is the right call, if only for the fact that he’s rested and has pitched brilliantly as of late.

Let’s just hope his brilliant September carries over in to October.

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Pedro Martinez and TBS Postseason Crew Recreate ‘Boom Goes the Dynamite’ Debacle

Everyone loves the “Boom Goes the Dynamite” video clip circa 2005. Everyone, with the exception of some New York Yankees fans, loves Pedro Martinez. Put those two together, and magical things can happen.

The TBS postseason crew—led by Martinez, Cal Ripken Jr. and Gary Sheffield—put their own spin on the classic meltdown from Ball State news anchor Brian Collins.

It was only fitting that Martinez was the one who dropped the famous line.

Here’s the legendary “Boom Goes the Dynamite” clip:

The postseason gets started Tuesday night with the Oakland Athletics and the Kansas City Royals in the American League Wild Card Game at 7:30 p.m. ET on TBS. 

[MLBFanCave, YouTube]

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MLB Playoffs 2014: Full Wild Card Schedule and Predictions

It’s playoff time in Major League Baseball. Since the adoption of a second wild card team in each league, there’s also a greater sense of urgency when the postseason begins because you have only one game to get everything right.

There are a lot of myths surrounding playoff baseball, not the least of which is this idea of momentum. We’ve seen teams with 85 wins capture a World Series, so how much forward movement did those teams really have?

What makes October baseball so special is you don’t have to be the best team to win a World Series. You just have to be the best team on a given day, three times in a five-game stretch and four times in a seven-game span. 

Before we get into the meat of playoff baseball, it’s time to examine the two games that will kick things off. Here is our look at the American League and National League Wild Card games, including the start times and predictions. 

 

Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals

You are going to notice a running theme throughout this particular predictions piece about starting pitching. Every year, the postseason discussion revolves around what happens on the mound but it’s never more apparent than a winner-take-all situation. 

Billy Beane made the deal for Jon Lester at the trade deadline specifically for this moment. He may have thought the A’s would be waiting to start the AL Division Series at the time, but following their brutal second half, it’s good to have that proven horse at the top of your rotation to lean on. 

Looking at Lester’s postseason stats, via MLB‘s official Twitter account, you know this moment won’t be too big for him:

Lester will also have the easier task in this game, because Kansas City’s lineup is the worst among playoff teams. The Royals are an empty offensive team, the kind that will struggle to find runs against the power pitching in October. 

The Royals did post the fourth-best batting average in baseball and were the only team to strike out less than 1,000 times, but also have the lowest slugging percentage among AL playoff teams (.376) and only had three players with more than 10 home runs. 

Kansas City manager Ned Yost is going to drive people nuts because of how frequently he gives up outs with sacrifice bunts, with Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star noting the criticism recently on Twitter:

On the other side, the Royals made the trade for James Shields in December 2012 hoping he would get an opportunity to pitch in a playoff game before leaving via free agency after this season. They will get their wish in the city’s first postseason game since 1985. 

Much like Pittsburgh last season, there’s no doubt that Kansas City and Kaufmann Stadium will be bouncing long before the first pitch is thrown. Sometimes we underestimate the power a crowd can have in baseball. It was easy to see with the Pirates last year, as Cincinnati looked overwhelmed by the stage it was on. 

However, the A’s are a playoff-tested team with one of the best playoff pitchers in baseball on the mound. They won’t be intimidated by the spectacle of Kaufmann Stadium. It also doesn’t hurt that, for all the problems after the All-Star break, they are more likely to find a three-run homer than Kansas City. 

Shields hasn’t been great at home this season with a 3.51 ERA and 108 hits allowed in 102.2 innings, so the A’s should have opportunities to score. If the game should come down to the bullpens, the A’s finished third in ERA (2.91) and batting average against (.222). Kansas City was 10th (3.30) and 11th (.235) in those categories. 

You almost want the Royals to win because it would be a great story to talk about, but from a starting pitching perspective and talent-for-talent examination, the Athletics are a better team and should come out on top. 

Prediction: A’s 4, Royals 1

 

San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

The National League Wild Card Game is much easier to figure out. San Francisco will start Madison Bumgarner, one of the best pitchers in baseball, while Pittsburgh will for some reason counter with Edinson Volquez

I recognize that Volquez‘s ERA of 3.04 looks solid and he threw 192.2 innings during the regular season, but how do you trust a pitcher in a must-win game who has 71 walks and the lowest strikeout rate of his career (6.54)?

For all the control problems he’s had this year (81 walks in 162.1 innings), Francisco Liriano would have been a much better choice for the Pirates in this game because he’s still missing a lot of bats (175 strikeouts). Unfortunately, he started Saturday and would be pitching this game on short rest.

Gerrit Cole would have been the best choice to start this game, but Clint Hurdle decided to use him on Sunday in hopes of catching St. Louis for the National League Central title. 

If you believe in observing small sample sizes, Andrew Baggarly of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area points out that Volquez has been really good late in the season:

The counter to that, via Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, is the Giants finished 14 games over .500 this season because of how they performed against right-handed pitching:

Volquez might be a changed pitcher right now, but that feeling it can all go wrong at any given moment is more present with him than even an average postseason pitcher. You can’t put your entire season on his right arm. 

Finally, as mentioned earlier, the biggest problem for Pittsburgh will be Bumgarner. The Pirates are terrible against left-handed pitching, scoring the second-fewest runs (137) and hitting the second-fewest homers (23) this season. 

Bumgarner doesn’t need extra help to succeed, especially on the road where he held opponents to a .619 OPS and 0.98 WHIP. Adding Pittsburgh’s ineptitude against southpaws into the mix only makes the Giants bigger favorites in the game. 

Prediction: Giants 5, Pirates 2

 

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MLB Playoff Bracket 2014: Complete Postseason Schedule and Wild Card Predictions

The MLB playoff bracket may not unify the nation for three weeks like the NCAA tournament bracket does in March, but it still represents one of the most exciting times on the entire sports calendar. 

After a grueling 162-game schedule, we finally get to see rally towels in the upper deck, late-inning showdowns between bullpen specialists and superstar hitters, and visible proof of the deep breaths players take in the pressure-packed moments, thanks to the crisp October air.

Here is a look at the postseason bracket, courtesy of Cork Gaines of Business Insider:

Here is the entire 2014 playoff schedule, courtesy of MLB.com, followed by a breakdown of the Wild Card Games.

 

Wild Card Round Predictions

Fans may instantly recognize superstars like Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Alex Gordon and Josh Donaldson from the four wild-card rosters, but it is all about the pitching in these single-elimination, loser-goes-home playoff games.

 

National League

The San Francisco Giants will hit the road to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Wild Card Round. Both teams finished with identical records, but the game is in Pittsburgh because the Pirates beat the Giants in four of their six head-to-head games.

Pittsburgh may just be the hottest team in baseball with 17 wins in its last 23 contests.

A large reason why the Pirates have been so hot is the pitching of Edinson Volquez, who has completely dominated since June. In fact, he sports a 1.78 ERA in his last 12 starts and hasn’t given up a run in 18 innings. He knocked his 5.71 ERA from last year down to 3.04 this season and led his team with 31 starts and 192.2 innings pitched.

He has also only given up four earned runs in his last five starts at home.

Volquez won’t be the only impressive pitcher on the mound Wednesday. Madison Bumgarner will take the hill for the Giants, and all he did this year was set a career high in wins with 18 and strikeouts with 219. He also finished with a formidable 2.98 ERA and went 11-4 on the road.

Even if Bumgarner is lights-out, the problem for the Giants may be the offense. San Francisco only scored 44 runs in the final 15 games of the season, which is not exactly the formula for success in the playoffs.

Volquez is red hot on the mound against a struggling Giants lineup. Those patterns will continue in a low-scoring affair. 

Prediction: Pirates 3, Giants 2

 

American League

The Kansas City Royals host the Oakland Athletics in the American League Wild Card Round in another contest that will be dominated by two of the best pitchers in the MLB.

James Shields, who has postseason experience from his days in Tampa Bay, will take the ball for the Royals with his 2.31 September ERA. He discussed the team and situation, according to Dave Skretta of The Associated Press, via Yahoo Sports:

I’ve only been here for two years, but when I got traded over here, I knew the magnitude of what this organization was headed for. And when I got here, walking around the city and talking to the fans and really relishing the 29 years, it’s a special moment.

It is a special moment that is a long time in the making, as ESPN Stats & Info pointed out:

Oakland, on the other hand, made the playoffs for the third straight year and will send a postseason-tested veteran to the mound Tuesday. In fact, playoff baseball is the entire reason the Athletics traded for Jon Lester in the first place, and he will take his 6-4 career record and 2.11 ERA in 11 playoff starts to the mound with him. 

The MLB and Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post pointed out why Lester could be a problem for the Royals:

Lester went 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in last year’s World Series, so he certainly isn’t going to be intimidated by the moment in the Wild Card Round. It will mark his 12th career start in the postseason, which is in stark contrast to the inexperience on the Kansas City side.

Lester went 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA against the Royals this season and will be the perfect answer to a raucous Kansas City crowd.

The prediction here is based on the matchup more so than any experience edge. Lester has been a postseason wizard in the past, and he is going up against a lineup that he absolutely dominated in 2014.

There is no reason to expect anything differently this time around. 

Prediction: Athletics 4, Royals 1

 

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2014 Reviews, Offseason Outlooks for All of MLB’s Non-Playoff Teams

The 2014 MLB regular season has been over for two days, meaning that the Wild Card Round is set to kick off and usher in the postseason for the 10 teams that earned the right to play October baseball.

What about the other 20 clubs that didn’t make the playoffs?

Well, there are certainly plans in place to improve the rosters on each of them with the idea that 2015 will be a better season. Some have longer to-do lists than others, but they all have the same goal—win it all next year.

In that spirit, let’s take a look at the franchises that didn’t make the MLB playoffs, reviewing where they were and surmising what the offseason could hold.

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10 Red-Hot Hitters Poised to Shine Under 2014 MLB Postseason Pressure

There is certainly some truth to the idea that pitching wins championships, but a top-flight offense can go a long way in helping a team get that far. Without some offensive firepower, it’s awfully hard to reach October to begin with.

With the 10-team postseason field set and things set to kick off Tuesday night with the American League Wild Card Game between the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals, postseason baseball has officially arrived here in 2014.

What follows is a look at 10 hitters, one from each playoff-bound club, who finished out the regular season on a tear at the plate.

Based on their September numbers and the key spot they occupy in their respective team’s lineup, these 10 players look poised to shine in the bright lights of October.

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MLB Playoff Schedule 2014: Dates, Times, TV Info, Live Stream and Preview

The MLB playoffs have finally arrived after the annual 162-game gauntlet. Four of the 10 teams are in danger of only playing a 163rd game, with MLB’s expanded playoffs allowing for a high-stakes, one-game wild-card round.

For those that wish to clear their social schedule in October—and part of November—and devote their attention to America’s pastime, knowing the full playoff schedule in advance can be a huge benefit.

Here is a look at the complete playoff schedule, including information on television coverage and live streaming availability.

Live Stream Note: All games can be found online at MLB.TV for paid subscribers.

 

Preview

National League

The San Francisco Giants will play the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Wild Card Game. The winner of the one-game extravaganza, to be played Wednesday, October 1 at PNC Park, will go on to face the Washington Nationals.

Edinson Volquez has enjoyed a career revival on the banks of the Allegheny River and will take the mound against Madison Bumgarner, the undisputed ace of the Giants pitching staff.

It should be an excellent duel between pitchers. Volquez is on fire, posting a 1.08 ERA in the month of September. Bumgarner is actually a better pitcher away from San Francisco, posting a 2.22 ERA on the road and a .979 WHIP.

The Pirates indelible outfield trio of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Josh Harrison should power them past their Bay Area foes.

Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette believes McCutchen, who hit 25 home runs, stole 18 bases and played Gold Glove-caliber defense, is deserving of his second consecutive NL MVP award. Cook specifically cited his ability to perform when not at full strength:

The most extraordinary part of McCutchen’s season is he hasn’t been healthy since his serious rib injury in early August. It seemed as if the season might be finished when he tore rib cartilage Aug. 3 in Arizona. McCutchen ended up on the 15-day disabled list but came off it the first day he was eligible and has been going hard since. Talk about leading by example. Talking about giving everything to the team. The injury would have finished most players for the season.

Trips to the nation’s capital won’t be pleasant for the victor, as the Nats have been one of the most consistent teams in the league this season. 

They got rare power production from the shortstop position in 2014. Ian Desmond busted through for 24 home runs and 91 RBI while playing at one of baseball’s toughest positions. First baseman Adam LaRoche had a fine year, as did Jayson Werth.

If Bryce Harper can flash some of the form that made him a tantalizing prospect at 19 years of age, the Nats will be a favorite to win it all. One way he’s looking to contribute may be on the basepaths, per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post:

I talked to Jayson about some things on the bases and cleared my head up and really got pretty comfortable out there. It’s a lot better right now. I’m happy about it because we’re going to the postseason and I’m going to need to steal some bags and get that extra bag when I need to. I give a lot to Jayson for that.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will look to exact revenge against the St. Louis Cardinals, who bested the Boys in Blue in last year’s National League Championship Series. 

The Dodgers should have the edge in this one thanks to their starting pitching, so long as Hyun-jin Ryu is able to pitch to the best of his abilities. Ryu went 14-7 with a 3.38 ERA and is recovering from a sore shoulder. He made progress in a recent bullpen session.

“Everything worked pretty well,” Ryu said through an interpreter, per ESPNLosAngeles.com’s Mark Saxon. “It was a very positive result.” 

Combining the Korean star with Clayton Kershaw, the best pitcher on the planet, and former Cy Young Award-winner Zack Greinke gives the Dodgers a comfortable cushion of talent that should suppress runs and allow the likes of Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig to put them over the top on offense. 

The Cardinals have a potent pitcher in Adam Wainwright to neutralize the Dodgers’ pitching threats. If he gets the nod opposite Kershaw, that contest could very well become a baseball staring contest—whichever pitcher blinks first, loses.

 

American League

One American League Division Series matchup is already set in stone, with the Detroit Tigers taking on the Baltimore Orioles.

The Tigers bested the Orioles in five out of their six regular-season meetings. The Motor City squad boasts one of the best one-two pitching combinations in the league in David Price and Max Scherzer. The Orioles will need to steal at least one of these games to have a chance in this one.

Luckily, Baltimore has plenty of power scattered throughout its lineup. Center fielder Adam Jones cranked out 29 home runs, and utility man Steve Pearce clubbed 21 dingers of his own.

But no Oriole struck more fear into opposing pitchers than Nelson Cruz, who racked up 40 home runs and 108 RBI on the season. His power will be key to the team’s success, especially with powerful first baseman Chris Davis out for at least the first eight games of the playoffs with a drug suspension, per Michael Kolligian of The Baltimore Sun.

The Los Angeles Angels will take on the winner of the Kansas City Royals-Oakland Athletics wild-card matchup.

It’s been a long, slow spiral into mediocrity for the A’s, who boasted one of the better run differentials in baseball history in the first half of the season and picked up a bevy of starting pitchers—Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel—only to squander the talent and limp into the playoffs.

Still, if they can find a way to recapture their early-season magic, they have as good a chance as anyone to make it all the way to the World Series.

The Royals haven’t been to the playoffs in 29 years and will be plenty motivated to ensure that it isn’t just a brief postseason sojourn. All-Star outfielder Alex Gordon is happy to give fans something to cheer about after all these years and is excited to see the atmosphere at Kauffman Stadium.

“It will be nuts, absolutely nuts,” said Gordon, per USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale. “People have been waiting a long time for this day. Now, we’re giving them something to cheer about. Hopefully, this is just the beginning.”

The excitement for the team spilled over into football when the Kansas City Chiefs played the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football, per NFL on ESPN:

Gordon deserves a great deal of credit for the Royals’ resurgence after posting 19 home runs, 74 RBI and 34 doubles on the year.

The Angels finished with baseball’s best regular-season record at 98-64 and are likely favorites to win it all this year. Mike Trout put up an MVP-caliber season, notching 36 home runs, 111 RBI and a .939 OPS while playing killer defense.

They could also see a big boost from two injured players before the series. Pitcher Matt Shoemaker and outfielder Josh Hamilton are making progress in their respective recoveries, per Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times:

Matt Shoemaker said he “felt great” after a bullpen workout of 30-40 pitches on Sunday, the strongest indication yet that the Angels’ right-hander, who is recovering from a mild left rib-cage strain, will pitch in the American League division series.

And left fielder Josh Hamilton took a positive step toward returning from right rib-cage and chest injuries, swinging off a tee, hitting soft toss, throwing, running and tracking pitches from the batter’s box during Shoemaker’s bullpen session.

If these impact players can make a timely return to this Angels squad, they could very well set up a highly anticipated Freeway Series against the Dodgers—or defeat any team the NL dares to throw at them.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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Predicting the 10 Biggest Breakout Stars of the 2014 MLB Postseason

Having a breakout season is a challenge for most players. Pulling it off in the postseason, when playing time is limited and every next play could potentially determine the season, is another story.

However, every year there are players who do just that, as they go from little-known prospects or under-appreciated veterans to playoff heroes and household names seemingly overnight.

With the playoff games set to begin Tuesday night, it’s time to preview some of the players who appear primed for a breakout performance this October.

Here’s a look at the biggest potential breakout stars for the 2014 postseason.

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Giants vs. Pirates: Date, Time, TV Info, Live Stream, NL Wild Card Game Preview

What does slogging through a brutal 162-game schedule that spans the entirety of an American summer (and then some) earn you in MLB‘s expanded-playoff era?

If you’re a wild-card team, it earns you the right to play at least one more game. The San Francisco Giants will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in the National League Wild Card Game to decide which team moves on to the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals.

This may not be the fairest way to determine who takes another step toward a World Series crown, but it just might be the most exciting. Consider it a bonus for all the hard work as a fan of watching three-run, four-hour ballgames in the middle of an August heatwave. 

Here is all the relevant media information one needs to catch the NL Wild Card Game, followed by a quick preview.

 

2014 NL Wild Card Game Info: San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: October 1

Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Time (ET): 8 p.m.

TV Info: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN

 

Preview

The Pirates have been in true swashbuckling form as of late, winning 19 of their last 25 games and coming within two games of upending the St. Louis Cardinals and capturing the NL Central crown. They are 4-2 against the Giants this year, and although the slate is wiped clean come playoff time, the Pirates carry a mental, home-field—and perhaps a starting pitching—edge.

Per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Bucs will send out Edinson Volquez, one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, to the mound Wednesday night. He’s 5-0 since the start of August and posted a 1.08 ERA with a .990 WHIP in the month of September.

“If he does indeed get the ball on Wednesday it’s well-deserved and I think everybody in this room has the utmost confidence that he’s the right guy to get the ball,” said teammate Gerrit Cole, via Brink. Volquez struggled in 2013 with the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, but he’s shown no signs of relapsing into bad habits.

The Giants got a nice end-of-the-season jolt from star catcher Buster Posey, who went 1-for-2 with a two-run homer in the team’s final regular-season game. He was the main source of offense for the team, crushing 22 home runs and knocking in 89 RBI.

“I was, to be honest, a little concerned with if he was healthy,” Bochy said, via Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News. “But he showed it with that swing.”

Supplementing Posey will be players like outfielder Hunter Pence, who was second to Posey on the team with 20 home runs and 74 RBI, and Mike Morse, who posted an .811 OPS (on-base plus slugging) and notched 32 doubles.

A healthy Posey will certainly solidify the Giants lineup, but as Pavlovic notes, they may need to dip into their depth if they want to make this a long postseason:

With Angel Pagan and Michael Morse hurt, the Giants will need a deep attack Wednesday and beyond, and they got contributions up and down the roster. Brandon Belt reached base twice and scored a run, continuing his stellar play over the past week. Rookies Joe Panik, Andrew Susac and Matt Duffy are all likely to see postseason action, and they combined for four hits and two RBIs.

The new faces in the lineup and the lack of reams of data on their preferences may affect the Pirates, who have utilized shifts nearly 300 more times this season than the other NL playoff teams, according to ESPN Insider (subscription required) Scott Spratt.

It will be interesting to see if the team can pick its spots behind Volquez and save a run or two in this contest, but with one game deciding its playoff fate, it could opt for a more conservative and balanced approach.

Giants ace Madison Bumgarner, who finished the season with an 18-10 record and 2.98 ERA, will do his best to limit the Bucs in this contest, per a report from ESPN.com. 

The Pirates are in remarkable shape for this late in the season and the health of their squad, especially their star trio in the outfield, may prove to be the difference in this contest. Josh Harrison, Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen have caused pitchers plenty of fits on the year with their all-around hitting acumen.

Bumgarner is a fine pitcher and will be a worthy test for the Bucs, but things seem to be going in the Pirates direction. Then again, it’s just one game, and anything can happen.

 

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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MLB About to Enter Most Wide-Open Postseason in a Long Time

Here’s something that might sound weird coming from a guy who’s supposed to know baseball:

I have no idea who’s going to win the 2014 World Series.

Of course, I will make a pick at some point. What the heck. Everyone else does. But picking a winner this year presents a unique challenge. One that, as we’ll get into later, hasn’t come around in a while.

This challenge: Whereas most postseasons have at least one obvious favorite, the 2014 postseason does not. You can look at all 10 playoff teams and find just as many potential downfalls as advantages.

This is true even of the best of the bunch. The Los Angeles Angels won an MLB-best 98 games and, according to Baseball Prospectus, have an 18.8 percent chance of winning it all. But they’re also a fine place to begin a breakdown of why this year’s 10 teams are simultaneously poised to win and doomed to fail.

 

Los Angeles Angels (98-64, AL West champs)

Why They’ll Win

Well, Mike Trout is baseball’s best player. And around him in the Angels lineup are other quality hitters like Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick and Kole Calhoun. Also, don’t overlook how the Angels bullpen, as manager Mike Scioscia put it to USA Today‘s Wayne Epps Jr. in August, “fueled our charge” in the second half with a 3.12 ERA and league-best WAR.

 

Why They’re Doomed

With Garrett Richards sidelined until 2015 and Matt Shoemaker still recovering from a rib-cage injury, the totally non-threatening duo of Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson currently sits atop the Angels’ playoff rotation. Factor in Josh Hamilton’s ongoing injury troubles, and baseball’s winningest team has as many glaring weak spots as a video game boss.

 

Washington Nationals (96-66, NL East champs)

Why They’ll Win

In Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark, the Nationals are bringing an excellent starting rotation into October. They also finished the year as one of the top five run-scoring teams in the second half, and more recently have enjoyed Bryce Harper’s return to form. And unlike in 2012, inexperience isn’t an issue.

Why They’re Doomed

That Washington’s offense strikes out more than any other National League postseason offense doesn’t bode well knowing that power pitching reigns supreme in October. Also, the Nationals bullpen regressed mightily in the second half. Lastly, the one guy who didn’t get postseason experience in 2012 is the guy lined up to be Washington’s Game 1 starter: Stephen Strasburg.

 

Baltimore Orioles (96-66, AL East champs)

Why They’ll Win

After leading the league in home runs, the Orioles are bringing a powerful offense to the postseason. They can catch the ball, too, as Baseball Prospectus rates the Orioles as the No. 4 team in defensive efficiency. And through a combination of talent and Buck Showalter’s managing, the Orioles bullpen had the league’s top ERA after the break.

 

Why They’re Doomed

With Matt Wieters and Manny Machado out with injuries and Chris Davis unavailable in the short-term due to a suspension, Baltimore’s offense is not at full strength. And though they pitched well down the stretch, a starting rotation of Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, Miguel Gonzalez and Kevin Gausman doesn’t frighten anyone.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers (94-68, NL West champs)

Why They’ll Win

Clayton Kershaw is the King of the Mound-ain. Oh, and Zack Greinke‘s also really good. Elsewhere, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford broke out their big bats and helped the Dodgers offense finish second in runs after the break. Yasiel Puig has snapped out of a funk in the last couple weeks. Then there’s closer Kenley Jansen, who has been downright silly since mid-June. 

 

Why They’re Doomed

There’s a big drop-off in talent in the Dodgers rotation after Kershaw and Greinke, especially if Hyun-Jin Ryu’s balky left shoulder doesn’t start behaving. And though the Dodgers offense is strong, Hanley Ramirez isn’t nearly the threat he was last season. You also wonder about the bullpen, which was perilously thin outside of Jansen down the stretch.

 

Detroit Tigers (90-72, AL Central champs)

Why They’ll Win

Miguel Cabrera looked like himself in September. Justin Verlander also finished his season strong. If Miggy is really back, the Tigers have a fearsome lineup trio in him, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez. If Verlander is also really back, how does a postseason rotation of Max Scherzer, David Price, Verlander and Rick Porcello sound?

 

Why They’re Doomed

After being weak the last two seasons, this year’s Tigers bullpen is so shaky it probably couldn’t be trusted to protect an M1 Abrams tank from even so much as a swarm of butterflies. And while one wants to be optimistic about Miggy and Verlander, it’s hard to ignore how they weren’t themselves for most of the year. Then there’s how both Price and Porcello have been up and down recently.

 

St. Louis Cardinals (90-72, NL Central champs)

Why They’ll Win

In light of Adam Wainwright’s dead arm period clearly being over, Shelby Miller’s second-half breakthrough and Lance Lynn’s year-long excellence, the Cardinals have a strong rotation trio. Just as encouraging is how Matt Holliday has found his power and how Yadier Molina has had a month to get back on track following an injury. They also like to use evil black magic—commonly known as “The Cardinal Way”—in October.

 

Why They’re Doomed

Wainwright and Lynn are fine, but ERA estimators like FIP and xFIP suggest Miller drastically overachieved in the second half. And though Molina’s had ample time to get on track, he hasn’t hit a lick since his return. Matt Adams, meanwhile, hasn’t hit a lick since the break. The Cardinals also have a closer in Trevor Rosenthal, who’s had the command of Nuke LaLoosh in 2014.

 

Kansas City Royals (89-73, AL Wild Card)

Why They’ll Win

The Royals are cut out to win close games. James Shields, Yordano Ventura, Jason Vargas and Danny Duffy make for a strong collection of starters. Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland are a relief trio that can shorten games with the best of ’em. The Royals also have good defenders all around, especially in the outfield in Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Norichika Aoki.

Why They’re Doomed

Joe Posnanski said it best at Hardball Talk: “run scoring for [the Royals] is like manual labor.” With a league-average OBP and the fewest homers in the majors, this is absolutely true. And though the Royals have the talent to win close games, skipper Ned Yost has a tendency to mismanage said talent.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74, NL Wild Card)

Why They’ll Win

Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano saved their best pitching for the second half, and the Pirates have a strong bullpen led by the underrated Mark Melancon. Their offense is deeper around Andrew McCutchen than you might think, especially after Josh Harrison, Russell Martin, Starling Marte and Neil Walker all had strong second halves.

 

Why They’re Doomed

Problem No. 1: The Pirates are trusting Edinson Volquez to represent them in the NL Wild Card Game. Even if they survive that, Liriano’s recent control problems, Martin’s recent hamstring injury and McCutchen‘s relatively modest second half are all reasons for skepticism. And though he’s pitched well for Pittsburgh, it’s hard to trust Vance Worley as a playoff starter.

 

San Francisco Giants (88-74, NL Wild Card)

Why They’ll Win

Madison Bumgarner is unhittable when he’s on, and Jake Peavy has been on a roll since mid-August. Just as important, Buster Posey was arguably the best player in the league down the stretch. And if Tim Lincecum can be what he was in the 2012 postseason while Sergio Romo stays rejuvenated, Bruce Bochy’s bullpen will be able to shorten games to, oh, about four innings.

 

Why They’re Doomed

Though Hunter Pence can still give fine speeches, he and Pablo Sandoval were non-factors in September. Spark-plug leadoff man Angel Pagan is done for the year. On the mound, Tim Hudson and Ryan Vogelsong ran out of gas in the second half. Then there’s this: After starting 43-21, the Giants were a sub-.500 club.

 

Oakland A’s (88-74, AL Wild Card)

Why They’ll Win

Jon Lester has been terrific lately. Same goes for Jeff Samardzija. And also Sonny Gray. Anchored by stud closer Sean Doolittle, the A’s also have a bullpen that doesn’t get enough credit. Oh, and they finished the year with the best run differential in the majors. That means they’re better than their record, right?

Why They’re Doomed

Um…no. Pretty much any compliment at this point is owed to the team the A’s were, not the team they are. Worst of all is how they stopped scoring runs after Yoenis Cespedes was traded. Only Josh Donaldson and Josh Reddick pulled their weight down the stretch. And alas, Donaldson is all sorts of banged up.

 

Everybody get all that? Good, because it’s quiz time.

No, not really. But you get the idea. A season characterized by parity has, not surprisingly, produced four heavily flawed wild-card teams and six division winners with their own flaws. It’s difficult to look at this year’s playoff teams and confidently say this club or that club might as well put the bubbly on ice.

Which, if you take a moment for a brief trip back through time, usually isn’t the case.

There was at least one juggernaut-looking 100-win team in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009 and 2011. In the years there weren’t, at least one of the teams that fell short looked legitimately formidable.

In 2013, the Cardinals and Boston Red Sox were both 97-win teams that entered the postseason as very well-rounded clubs. Outside of them, the 93-win Tigers had a stacked rotation and the 92-win Dodgers were a team that nobody could beat once the calendar reached late June.

In 2012, the Nationals and Cincinnati Reds both had well-rounded clubs that flirted with 100 wins, while the 88-win Tigers had an excellent rotation backed by the first Triple Crown winner in nearly 50 years.

In 2010, a 97-win Philadelphia Phillies club had a pitching staff led by Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels and deadline acquisition Roy Oswalt, and they also entered the postseason off a 50-win second half.

In 2007, a 96-win Red Sox team had an exciting mix of veterans left over from 2004 and up-and-comers like Dustin Pedroia, Jonathan Papelbon and Jacoby Ellsbury. A fellow 96-win Cleveland Indians team had a strong offense and a killer rotation duo in CC Sabathia and the former Fausto Carmona.

In 2006, both New York clubs won 97 games while a 96-win Minnesota Twins team rode a league-best second half and in-their-prime versions of Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Johan Santana and Joe Nathan into the postseason. 

Is the 2014 season really the most wide-open postseason in recent memory? If there are numbers that can say yes or no, they’re darn hard to find. But in light of how all 10 teams are entering October with very real potential downfalls and how recent postseasons have featured clear teams to beat, this sure feels like the most wide-open postseason to come around in a while.

But here’s the bright side: This is not a complaint.

It’s hard to fathom how putting 10 flawed teams in one postseason won’t result in back-and-forth games and, in turn, back-and-forth series. We might not watch the prettiest baseball throughout, but the games could still be thrilling and the series could all go long.

Though the 2014 postseason should be messy, it should also be fun.

 

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

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