It’s playoff time in Major League Baseball. Since the adoption of a second wild card team in each league, there’s also a greater sense of urgency when the postseason begins because you have only one game to get everything right.
There are a lot of myths surrounding playoff baseball, not the least of which is this idea of momentum. We’ve seen teams with 85 wins capture a World Series, so how much forward movement did those teams really have?
What makes October baseball so special is you don’t have to be the best team to win a World Series. You just have to be the best team on a given day, three times in a five-game stretch and four times in a seven-game span.
Before we get into the meat of playoff baseball, it’s time to examine the two games that will kick things off. Here is our look at the American League and National League Wild Card games, including the start times and predictions.
Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
You are going to notice a running theme throughout this particular predictions piece about starting pitching. Every year, the postseason discussion revolves around what happens on the mound but it’s never more apparent than a winner-take-all situation.
Billy Beane made the deal for Jon Lester at the trade deadline specifically for this moment. He may have thought the A’s would be waiting to start the AL Division Series at the time, but following their brutal second half, it’s good to have that proven horse at the top of your rotation to lean on.
Looking at Lester’s postseason stats, via MLB‘s official Twitter account, you know this moment won’t be too big for him:
Lester will also have the easier task in this game, because Kansas City’s lineup is the worst among playoff teams. The Royals are an empty offensive team, the kind that will struggle to find runs against the power pitching in October.
The Royals did post the fourth-best batting average in baseball and were the only team to strike out less than 1,000 times, but also have the lowest slugging percentage among AL playoff teams (.376) and only had three players with more than 10 home runs.
Kansas City manager Ned Yost is going to drive people nuts because of how frequently he gives up outs with sacrifice bunts, with Andy McCullough of The Kansas City Star noting the criticism recently on Twitter:
On the other side, the Royals made the trade for James Shields in December 2012 hoping he would get an opportunity to pitch in a playoff game before leaving via free agency after this season. They will get their wish in the city’s first postseason game since 1985.
Much like Pittsburgh last season, there’s no doubt that Kansas City and Kaufmann Stadium will be bouncing long before the first pitch is thrown. Sometimes we underestimate the power a crowd can have in baseball. It was easy to see with the Pirates last year, as Cincinnati looked overwhelmed by the stage it was on.
However, the A’s are a playoff-tested team with one of the best playoff pitchers in baseball on the mound. They won’t be intimidated by the spectacle of Kaufmann Stadium. It also doesn’t hurt that, for all the problems after the All-Star break, they are more likely to find a three-run homer than Kansas City.
Shields hasn’t been great at home this season with a 3.51 ERA and 108 hits allowed in 102.2 innings, so the A’s should have opportunities to score. If the game should come down to the bullpens, the A’s finished third in ERA (2.91) and batting average against (.222). Kansas City was 10th (3.30) and 11th (.235) in those categories.
You almost want the Royals to win because it would be a great story to talk about, but from a starting pitching perspective and talent-for-talent examination, the Athletics are a better team and should come out on top.
Prediction: A’s 4, Royals 1
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
The National League Wild Card Game is much easier to figure out. San Francisco will start Madison Bumgarner, one of the best pitchers in baseball, while Pittsburgh will for some reason counter with Edinson Volquez.
I recognize that Volquez‘s ERA of 3.04 looks solid and he threw 192.2 innings during the regular season, but how do you trust a pitcher in a must-win game who has 71 walks and the lowest strikeout rate of his career (6.54)?
For all the control problems he’s had this year (81 walks in 162.1 innings), Francisco Liriano would have been a much better choice for the Pirates in this game because he’s still missing a lot of bats (175 strikeouts). Unfortunately, he started Saturday and would be pitching this game on short rest.
Gerrit Cole would have been the best choice to start this game, but Clint Hurdle decided to use him on Sunday in hopes of catching St. Louis for the National League Central title.
If you believe in observing small sample sizes, Andrew Baggarly of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area points out that Volquez has been really good late in the season:
The counter to that, via Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, is the Giants finished 14 games over .500 this season because of how they performed against right-handed pitching:
Volquez might be a changed pitcher right now, but that feeling it can all go wrong at any given moment is more present with him than even an average postseason pitcher. You can’t put your entire season on his right arm.
Finally, as mentioned earlier, the biggest problem for Pittsburgh will be Bumgarner. The Pirates are terrible against left-handed pitching, scoring the second-fewest runs (137) and hitting the second-fewest homers (23) this season.
Bumgarner doesn’t need extra help to succeed, especially on the road where he held opponents to a .619 OPS and 0.98 WHIP. Adding Pittsburgh’s ineptitude against southpaws into the mix only makes the Giants bigger favorites in the game.
Prediction: Giants 5, Pirates 2
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