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There might not be a better opening-round series in the MLB playoffs than the St. Louis Cardinals against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

These two organizations are loaded with experience and know what it takes to win at this level. The Cardinals have reached the postseason 11 times in the past 15 years, winning four pennants and two World Series titles. Meanwhile, the Dodgers went to the NLCS last season and have quite a few veterans who have been in this spot before.

This is certain to create a well-played series with both sides finding ways to come through in big moments.

In order to keep up with every game of this highly anticipated series, here is a look at the schedule and a breakdown of what to expect over the next week.

Pitching Breakdown

There is no question the Dodgers have the best pitcher (and arguably best player) in the series in Clayton Kershaw. The lefty led the majors in both wins and ERA and hardly ever gave opponents a chance to win.

Seth Davis of CBS Sports gave his opinion on the player’s season:

Meanwhile, Aaron Gleeman of NBC Sports noted how well Kershaw has pitched in a historical context:

It is easy to simply pencil in the Dodgers for wins in the likely two games he starts this series. However, it is important to remember the Cardinals beat Kershaw twice in the NLCS a year ago, both on great starts by Michael Wacha.

Although Wacha has not been himself since returning from a shoulder injury, the Cardinals still have plenty of talent around Adam Wainwright, who will start Game 1. Lance Lynn has had a great season and John Lackey usually pitches well in the playoffs, accumulating a 3.03 ERA in 19 appearances.

Zack Greinke and Kershaw likely give the Dodgers a slight advantage on the mound going into each game, but this battle is much closer than one would think.

Offense

In past seasons, the St. Louis lineup was a nightmare for opposing pitchers because it simply didn’t end. There were quality hitters from top to bottom and everyone was capable of getting a big hit when it was needed.

However, that same depth is not there this year due to injuries and poor performances throughout. ESPN.com’s Tim Kurkjian describes the problems for the Cardinals offense:

It simply is not the same group from 2013. That team led the NL in scoring, this team scored 164 fewer runs, and finished 10th in runs scored. The Cardinals were last in the NL with 105 homers. Matt Holliday is the only Cardinal who finished with more than 75 RBIs. And they’ll be left-handed heavy — Matt Carpenter, Matt Adams, Jon Jay, Kolten Wong — going against Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu.

With Carlos Beltran and Allen Craig no longer with the team and Yadier Molina struggling since returning from an injury, the group remaining does not scare anyone. After finishing 23rd in the majors in runs scored, these problems are likely to continue in the playoffs.

On the other hand, the Dodgers have a great balance of speed (Dee Gordon, Carl Crawford), power (Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Kemp) and pure hitting ability (Hanley Ramirez, Yasiel Puig). These elements combine to create a lineup that could score in a number of different ways.

This could end up making the difference in what could become a short series.

Prediction: Dodgers Win in 4 Games

Dodgers manager Don Mattingly recently discussed the struggles his team has had against the Cardinals:

They’re a good club. They’ve been kind of a thorn in our side the last couple years. They beat us last year and knocked us out. I think the year before they beat us late in the year here in LA to kind of keep us out of the wild card.

So they’ve been a tough club for us. … It’s kind of turned into a pretty good rivalry.

The entire roster will do its best to make sure this one-sided rivalry does not continue in 2014.

Kershaw looks even better than last season and is ready to lead the team to victory. Meanwhile, the Cardinals appear worse in almost every facet of the game.

Los Angeles should be able to finally overcome St. Louis and advance to the National League Championship Series.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for the latest breaking news and analysis.

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While all eyes will be on the marquee players like Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner in Wednesday’s National League Wild Card Game at PNC Park, there are a few players who may steal the spotlight and have huge games to help their team advance into the division series. 

One of them is Pittsburgh’s Josh Harrison.

It’s easy to ignore what Harrison has done this season with McCutchen right next to him, but Harrison’s .315 batting average, which was just four points lower than that of NL batting champion Justin Morneau, is something the Giants should be taking seriously.

Consistently the catalyst for the Pittsburgh offense this season, Harrison batted .328 from the leadoff spot and seemed to get even better whenever a clutch hit is needed.

Harrison’s .360 average with one out and .359 average with two outs on the season are impressive enough alone, but what is even more extraordinary is his .392 average with two outs and runners in scoring position. All of those numbers are better than the ones put up by McCutchen this season (.320/.284/.283).

Harrison also seems to enjoy playing against Bumgarner and the Giants.

In five career at-bats against the Giants ace, Harrison has collected four hits, including a homer. In the six games he played against San Francisco this year, Harrison went 6-for-18 and belted three of his 13 homers on the season (including the one off Bumgarner), the most against any opposing team this year.

With more and more teams starting to pitch around McCutchen, it’s important for Harrison to set the tone at the top of the order to take off some of the pressure and ease the tasks for the heart of the order, especially when McCutchen is 2-for-10 against Bumgarner in his career.

Look for Harrison to create some chaos for the Giants on Wednesday in front of what is sure to be a raucous crowd at PNC Park and send the Pirates into NLDS against the Washington Nationals.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

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With two stud pitchers on the mound in Jon Lester for the Oakland A’s and James Shields for the Kansas City Royals in the American League Wild Card Game, it can be expected that runs will come at a premium for either side on Tuesday in Kansas City.

Unfortunately for both teams, that has already been the theme for quite some time.

After trading away slugger Yoenis Cespedes on July 31, the A’s were held off the scoreboard seven times, while the Royals finished the season ninth in the AL in runs scored and don’t have a single player with 20 homers and 75 runs batted in on the season.

So it’s safe to say that the way to win this game is by playing small ball, and that’s where the edge starts to tilt toward Kansas City.

The Royals had 33 sacrifice hits and 47 sacrifice flies on the season, while the A’s had 19 sacrifice hits (tied for the fewest in the majors) and 43 sacrifice flys, according to Baseball-Reference.com. Kansas City also stole the most bases among teams in the majors with 153 on the season, while Oakland had just 83.

One of the key catalysts for the Royals offense is shortstop Alcides Escobar, and he is expected to have a big game on Tuesday against Lester.

In 17 career at-bats against the Oakland southpaw, Escobar has a .353 average with six hits and no strikeouts. This season, Escobar was 3-for-7 off Lester. 

Escobar has also found success since manager Ned Yost moved him from the bottom of the batting order to the leadoff spot in mid-September.

In the 16 games he hit from the top spot, Escobar batted .362 with a .478 slugging percentage. Yost announced Monday during a press conference that the shortstop with 31 stolen bases on the season will again hit leadoff in the AL Wild Card Game.

In these winner-take-all games, a Game 7 mentality is required for everyone. While the stars are expected to perform at their best, it’s often the players who fly under people’s radars that end up making a name for themselves in October.

On Tuesday night, expect Alcides Escobar to become one of those players.

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One thing that defines Major League Baseball’s postseason is the unpredictable nature of the short series. Even though the regular season is built on three- and four-game series, it’s harder to pin down what happens now because the separation between the best and worst teams is minimal. 

Despite what Las Vegas odds will tell you about the World Series favorites (h/t Odds Shark), the Los Angeles Dodgers are not more than twice as likely to win a championship than the Kansas City Royals. Last year, Boston was four outs away from being down 2-0 to Detroit before David Ortiz hit a grand slam to change everything. 

The good news is this gives us plenty to talk about every day for the next month, but for the purposes of this article we are focused specifically on the two Wild Card games taking place Tuesday and Wednesday for the right to play in the Division Series. 

*If needed. Courtesy of MLB.com

Key Wild Card Game Storylines

Postseason Baseball Is Back in Kansas City

There will be plenty of time to talk about the game between the Oakland Athletics and Kansas City Royals before, during and after the game. Instead, let’s talk about the great story that is playoff baseball in this city for the first time since 1985. 

From a personal standpoint, having been born in November 1985, this is the first time I will ever see the Royals in the postseason. Coming on the heels of Pittsburgh ending its long playoff drought last year, this is a great time to be a baseball fan. 

Are the Pirates or Royals going to generate the kind of ratings and buzz that teams like the Yankees or Red Sox would? No, of course not. But who cares? I’d rather see new blood in the postseason than sit through another five-hour game between New York and Boston. 

Bob Nightengale of USA Today started the pregame hype with a piece that came out Monday about how many fans were in attendance during the Royals’ batting practice session:

When the Royals walked onto the field Monday morning for batting practice, there were 5,000 fans in the stands to greet them, cheer them, even staging an ol‘ fashioned pep rally normally reserved for Friday night high school football games.

This is their team.

This is their town.

Last year, we saw the passionate Pittsburgh fanbase unleash more than 20 years of frustration in an exuberant game when the Pirates defeated Cincinnati in the National League Wild Card game. It was evident the Reds were out of sorts early because of the crowd, with Johnny Cueto dropping the ball while stepping back on the mound, via MLB Advanced Media:

I don’t know if Jon Lester, who has been through plenty of playoff battles in his career, will be overwhelmed by the Royals crowd, but expecting anything less than what the Pittsburgh crowd brought to its game last year would be foolish. 

Win or lose, the Royals and their fans have earned this moment to celebrate an accomplishment that is 29 years in the making. As the great Jack Buck said after Ozzie Smith’s walk-off home run in Game 5 of the 1985 National League Championship Series, go crazy, folks!

Oakland’s Second-Half Collapse

Is there a playoff team that’s harder to figure out than the A’s? I will admit that I think they are going to defeat Kansas City on Tuesday night because Lester is the best pitcher either team has and the offense has more firepower than Kansas City’s lineup. 

That said, based on what Oakland’s lineup has done in the second half of the season (3.93 runs per game), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see James Shields throw a complete-game shutout. It’s not like Shields is a slouch in the pitching department, either. 

According to Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today, Oakland’s 29-38 record in the second half is the worst ever for a team that made the playoffs. He also noted the lineup hit an American League-worst .233 after the All-Star break. 

Again, though, starting pitching makes all the difference in October. Lester was one of the best in baseball this year, finishing fourth in the AL with a 2.46 ERA and seventh in fielding independent ERA (2.80). As ESPN.com’s Tim Kurkjian wrote in his game preview, this is why Billy Beane traded for the left-hander:

“The A’s gave up a lot in Cespedes,” Kurkjian wrote, “yet they needed to add a No. 1 starter to their rotation, a guy with not just experience in October, but success in October, and Lester has been dominant in October. They couldn’t have a better guy pitching an elimination game than Lester.”

In a longer series, Oakland’s inability to score runs with any consistency will come back to haunt it. In a one-game scenario, though, anything can happen. Don’t sell the A’s short simply because the year didn’t end with the kind of bang it started with. 

Pittsburgh’s Potentially Disastrous Mistake

One thing the second wild card has done is put more of a premium on winning the division. That’s good news for the teams that do finish atop their division but bad news for teams that are forced to play catchup late in the season. 

Such is the case with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who used Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole on Saturday and Sunday trying to catch the St. Louis Cardinals atop the National League Central. If it would’ve worked, we would be praising Clint Hurdle for firing all the bullets in his chamber. 

Since it didn’t work, though, Hurdle is stuck using Edinson Volquez in a winner-take-all situation. This is the same Volquez who is playing on his fourth team since 2011 and walked 71 batters in 192.2 innings this year. 

Oh, and by the way, Madison Bumgarner is starting for San Francisco. So we have a situation where one of the best pitchers in baseball is going against a glorified journeyman in a game that you have to win. Volquez‘s 3.04 ERA glosses over the fact that he’s basically the same pitcher he was from 2011 to 2013.

Mike Petriello of FanGraphs wrote about the enigma that is Volquez and how his numbers this year are all over the place with respect to what he’s done the previous three years:

Volquez’ xFIP has been basically constant for the last four years, and his FIP has been the same, basically, since 2012. But his actual runs allowed have been all over the map. Last year, he under-performed his FIP by 1.47 runs/game; this year, he’sout-performing it by 1.11. By FIP-WAR, his 0.3 last year and 0.7 are essentially the same. By RA9-WAR, he’s jumped from -2.4 to 3.0, a massive swing. 

Petriello does note that Pittsburgh is a great place for seemingly over-the-hill pitchers to play as a way to resurrect their careers because the defense is so good. A.J. Burnett went from a burnout in New York to posting a 3.41 ERA with 389 strikeouts in 393.1 innings with the Pirates. 

Burnett left Pittsburgh for Philadelphia last winter and became the version we saw in New York (4.59 ERA, 96 walks). 

Volquez may be the latest beneficiary of the Pirates defense, but nothing in his performance suggests that he’s lost more than two runs off the 5.71 ERA he had last year.

There are only so many true No. 1 starters in baseball, but the Pirates are putting their postseason hopes on their fourth-best starting pitcher (Cole, Liriano and Charlie Morton, who had hip surgery and is out for the playoffs). 

The only other time Volquez pitched in the postseason was Game 1 of the 2010 National League Division Series against Philadelphia. That game was notable for featuring Roy Halladay’s no-hitter for the Phillies, but Volquez lasted just 1.2 innings and allowed four runs with two walks and no strikeouts. 

If something like that happens against Bumgarner, the Pirates’ playoff run is going to be very brief. 

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

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After logging 2,001 regular-season games, Oakland Athletics designated hitter Adam Dunn is finally set to make the first postseason appearance of his career in Tuesday’s American League wild-card game against the Kansas City Royals. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Dunn will no longer sit atop the list for most games without a playoff appearance among active players.

That honor will now belong to Texas Rangers outfielder Alex Rios, who has played 1,586 games in the regular season without ever making it to the playoffs, per baseball-reference.com. The all-time mark is held by Chicago Cubs legend Ernie Banks, who logged 2,528 games in a 19-year career that did not include any postseason appearances.

The well-traveled Dunn has now played for five different teams, having joined the Athletics in a trade from the Chicago White Sox at the end of August. At the time, the A’s had already begun their well-documented slide, yet still looked like a near-lock to make the playoffs.

Ultimately, it came down to the final day of the season, as the A’s sat just one game ahead of the Seattle Mariners for the final wild-card spot entering Sunday’s action. Oakland pulled out a 4-0 win over the Texas Rangers, rendering Seattle’s 4-1 victory over the division-champion Los Angeles Angels for naught.

With Dunn not listed in Tuesday’s starting lineup versus Royals right-hander James Shields, there’s some chance that the 34-year-old DH won’t actually play in his first career postseason “appearance.”

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Tuesday’s American League Wild Card Game will feature two extremely different teams as the Kansas City Royals host the Oakland Athletics.

Both teams will be backed by excellent starting pitchers, with “Big Game” James Shields going for KC and former Boston Red Sox star Jon Lester taking the hill for Oakland.

Aside from that, though, each club will rely on a unique set of strengths in order to move on and face the Los Angeles Angels in the AL Divisional Series.

Essentially anything can happen in a one-game playoff situation, so every little detail will be absolutely huge for both the Royals and A’s during Tuesday night’s encounter.

With that in mind, here is a closer look at the biggest X-factors that will ultimately decide the first playoff game of 2014.

Bullpens

One thing that the Royals, Athletics and several other playoff teams have in common is the presence of a spectacular bullpen. Having power arms capable of closing out games is paramount in the current landscape of baseball. There is no question that Kansas City and Oakland possess that ability.

When discussing the Royals’ biggest assets, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com puts their pen at the very top of the list:

It is easy to see why when looking at what KC’s bullpen has to offer. Closer Greg Holland was spectacular all season long with a 1.44 ERA and 46 saves in 48 chances. Also, setup men Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera have been nearly unhittable at certain points this season.

All told, Royals relievers combined for 5.9 wins above replacement during the regular season, which was tied for the MLB‘s best mark with the New York Yankees, per FanGraphs.com.

The A’s have a dangerous bullpen in their own right, with closer Sean Doolittle leading the way. Fernando Abad and Luke Gregerson are trusted arms in late-game situations as well. With a bullpen ERA of 2.91 this season, Oakland ranked third in the league.

Although the expectation in this game is for both starters to pitch deep into the contest, things don’t always go according to plan. There is a very good chance that the bullpens will play a vital role, and the first one that blinks could end up losing it for their team.

Most teams work hard to get to their opponents’ pen, but that won’t be much of a reward on Tuesday. If it does come down to the bullpens, though, it could turn into a battle for the ages.

Royals’ Speed

Pure speed can be a great equalizer in sports, and that is often true in baseball. Some teams—like the Athletics—essentially choose to ignore speed for all intents and purposes.

That isn’t the case when it comes to the Royals, though. KC was first in the league this season with 153 stolen bases and a success rate of 81 percent.

It is no secret that KC will look to capitalize on that speed advantage during Tuesday’s AL Wild Card Game.

According to Dick Kaegel of MLB.com, the Royals’ lineup will feature Alcides Escobar, Nori Aoki and Lorenzo Cain batting first, second and third, respectively. That triumvirate combined for 76 swipes during the regular season.

Royals manager Ned Yost used the Red Sox for inspiration when he came up with this unorthodox lineup combination a couple of weeks ago, per Kaegel.

“We were struggling at that point, and we had just gotten through playing Boston, and they had a lot of speed at the top of their order that was creating havoc—guys were getting on base and running everywhere,” Yost said.

Since the Royals were MLB’s only team with less than 100 home runs this season, they need to manufacture runs in more creative ways. Stealing bases and taking the extra base in certain situations have proven to be successful strategies for Kansas City.

Those nuances are crucial in must-win games, and the Royals will be in such a scenario against the A’s. Kansas City’s small-ball approach doesn’t necessarily lend itself to huge offensive outbursts, but it may only take a timely run or two to win this game.

Athletics’ Power

While the Athletics aren’t necessarily known as a high-volume offensive team, they have proven to be more than capable of hitting the long ball. With 146 taters this season, the A’s bested the Royals by 51 in that department.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson and first baseman Brandon Moss spearhead the attack with a combined 54 homers. In addition to those players, Josh Reddick, Derek Norris, Coco Crisp and Adam Dunn all have plenty of pop. 

According to Joe Stiglich of Comcast SportsNet California, Donaldson views power as one of Oakland’s biggest advantages in the AL Wild Card Game:

With that said, the A’s have struggled in that regard since trading outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to Boston in exchange for Lester. Both Donaldson and Moss have been hampered by injuries in recent weeks, and it is impossible to know for sure how much they’re impacted by those ailments on a daily basis.

That is why Oakland’s power is such a true X-factor. Donaldson and Moss can both win games on their own with the home run ball, but that may not necessarily be in the cards for the remainder of the season. If Donaldson and Moss struggle, then the season could potentially last for just one more game.

Shields and the Royals’ bullpen have to be cognizant of Oakland’s power, regardless. Shields and Lester could engage in a pitchers’ duel, with a single run making the difference, and the Athletics can turn the tide with just one swing of the bat.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter

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New York Yankees outfielder Carlos Beltran underwent surgery to repair an elbow injury that limited him to 109 games in 2014. 

The Yankees announced the news:

Beltran’s first season as a member of the Yankees was a huge disappointment. The 37-year-old hit .233/.301/.402 in 109 games. His recovery timetable means he should be ready for spring training in February, barring any setbacks.    

If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter. 

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Despite a 22-33 record over the past two months as well as injuries and inconsistency, the Oakland Athletics secured the second American League wild-card spot in the season’s final game.

With 162 games now in the rear-view mirror, MLB.com’s John Schlegel reports the A’s will send Jon Lester to the mound on Tuesday night against Kansas City’s James Shields in the hope of avoiding an early offseason.

During the team’s stretch-run slide, Oakland’s lineup struggled to hit in the clutch, its defense looked shaky on routine plays and several members of the starting rotation showed signs of fatigue.

In recent weeks, fans and media learned that the Athletics had been playing with less than a full deck, including a Brandon Moss hip condition that will require offseason surgery and nagging knee issues for Josh Donaldson—not to mention John Jaso and Craig Gentry being lost for the foreseeable future with concussions.

Jonah Keri and Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight offered some statistically based reassurance to Oakland fans, indicating that heading into the postseason hot has had no correlation with performance in the playoffs since 1969.

Regardless, the Athletics need to click from the moment the lineup is submitted until the final out is made to survive Tuesday night’s play-in game. How can Oakland give itself the best chance to win?

Here are its three keys to winning the Wild Card Game.

Lean on Lester

It’s been repeated over and over: Jon Lester wasn’t acquired for August. He was brought on board for October. After shipping fan favorite Yoenis Cespedes to Boston in exchange for the lefty ace, general manager Billy Beane’s insight will—fairly or unfairly—be judged by Tuesday night’s outcome.

Faced with a win-or-go-home scenario, there’s not one starter on the roster that manager Bob Melvin would rather send to the mound.

“This is why you get a Jon Lester, to pitch in big games,” Melvin told Schlegel.

Lester faced Kansas City three times in 2014, winning all of his decisions and compiling a 2.61 ERA. Throughout his career, he has held middle-of-the-lineup power threats Alex Gordon and Billy Butler to .160 and .143 batting averages, respectively.

To further aid Lester’s cause, MLB.com’s Dick Kaegel reported that Ned Yost will sit Jayson Nix—who is 8-for-26 with three home runs in his career against Lester—in favor of Mike Moustakas.

The Royals offense finished last in the league in home runs and walks, which means Lester must stay aware of sacrifice plays and heads-up baserunning.

“It’s the same mentality, same preparation, same routine,” Lester told Schlegel about the preparation for this game.

An early lead of one or two runs may be all Lester needs to shut down Kansas City and continue his long history of success in October.

Get Clutch Performances from Donaldson and Reddick

While Oakland’s ace has only worn green and gold for two months, right fielder Josh Reddick and third baseman Josh Donaldson have been part of Athletics postseason baseball since their division win in 2012.

Reddick was the team’s most consistent hitter through the doldrums of August and September, putting up a .294/.337/.510 line with six home runs over 46 games. Donaldson has been debatably the gutsiest, making spectacular plays at the hot corner and igniting the offense in the clutch despite a nagging left knee injury.

“What [Donaldson] means for our team is pretty significant,” manager Bob Melvin told MLB.com’s Jane Lee. “It’s production, it’s defense, all of the above. He gives us exactly that.”

Oakland will need both cornerstones to be a presence in the lineup, especially in the early innings.

Reddick’s numbers against Shields—three home runs and a .318 average in 22 at-bats—speak for themselves, and the team will need big hits from him and Donaldson to take the lead before the game winds up in the hands of the Royals’ bullpen.

Control the Running Game

What the Kansas City lineup lacks in pop, it makes up for in speed. With burners Jarrod Dyson, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar on the roster, the Royals will depend largely on their running game to manufacture runs.

Protecting against the stolen base begins with the backstop, and Derek Norris’ struggles throwing out runners have been well-documented as of late.

Melvin showed his commitment to keeping Royals runners honest when ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield reported that Geovany Soto would get the nod despite never catching a Lester start.

Soto gunned out 10 of 23 attempted base stealers, which is stellar when compared against Norris’ 12 of 72, and his bat came alive with five hits in the final series against Texas.

Curbing Kansas City’s speed goes beyond the starting catcher, however. The Athletics will need to avoid the miscues in the field that haunted them down the stretch and prevent runners from reaching or advancing on errors.

Despite two months of play that it’d like to forget, Oakland is in a position to win behind one of the strongest postseason pitchers in the game.

Expect a tight game, a low score and an Athletics team ready to turn the calendar’s page.

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One thing the Major League Baseball postseason teaches us is that after 162 games, we still don’t know anything about this game that’s so near and dear to our hearts. Looking at regular-season records and stats is only a guide, because once games start it’s all up in the air. 

That’s what keeps us watching, because if we could end up predicting these things with no actual guesswork involved it wouldn’t be nearly as fun. This year also feels different because there’s not one dominant team that stands out above the rest. 

Even the Los Angeles Angels and Washington Nationals, who finished with the best records in the American League and National League, have flaws that can be exposed in the right matchup. With that out of the way, here are bold predictions for the postseason after we look at the playoff schedule. 

MLB.com

Bold Predictions

The Los Angeles Angels Will Be One-and-Done

Welcome to the postseason, Mike Trout! It’s nice having you here and eventually getting that MVP award you have deserved for the last three years. This is a great moment for baseball to have the best all-around player in the playoffs. 

Unfortunately for Trout and Angels fans, they are not going to be staying around long. 

It’s not like the Angels will be the first team in history to post the best record in the regular season only to lose in the Division Series, but regardless of whether they are playing Oakland or Kansas City, there won’t be a long playoff run in store for Mike Scioscia’s group. 

The one thing everyone says about October baseball is you need pitching to win, especially starting pitching. The Angels have Jered Weaver at the top, whose wins above replacement (WAR) has gone from 5.7 in 2010 and 2011 to 1.5 this year and ERA has gone from 2.41 in 2010 to 3.59 this year (per FanGraphs). 

After Weaver, the Angels are looking at a rotation that includes C.J. Wilson (4.51 ERA), Hector Santiago (3.75) and Matt Shoemaker, who hasn’t pitched since Sept. 15. Wilson and Santiago combined for 1.3 FanGraphs’ wins above replacement this season. 

Also, per Ted Keith of Sports Illustrated, the Angels weren’t exactly dominant against either of their potential Division Series opponents: 

Lastly, there is the fact that Los Angeles went just 10-9 against Oakland and 3-3 against Kansas City, the two potential opponents in the Division Series. In fact, the Angels were an even .500 (19-19) against the other AL postseason entrants, so their road to their first World Series since 2002 will be anything but smooth.

The Angels are one of the few teams in baseball that can put up a lot of runs in a hurry, but with a volatile rotation capable of imploding at any moment, the margin for error is so small for a team that won 98 games in the regular season. 

Preventing runs is critical to success in the postseason. The Angels had the second-best run differential in baseball this year, but allowed more runs than Baltimore, Oakland and Kansas City. Losing Garrett Richards was bad enough, but then Tyler Skaggs’ Tommy John surgery was the final blow that sealed their fate as a great regular-season team ready to fall short in October. 

Clayton Kershaw’s Greatness Won’t Get L.A. Far

In the NFL, a great quarterback can make an average team a Super Bowl contender by hiding other deficiencies thanks to his ability to create big plays down the field and command the game.

In Major League Baseball, a No. 1 starter can’t do that because he only controls one part of the game and is only able to pitch a maximum of three times in a seven-game series. Clayton Kershaw is the biggest difference-maker of any starting pitcher in baseball, but even he can’t get the Dodgers into a World Series. 

Last year, criticism fell on Kershaw’s shoulders for his disastrous performance in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series against St. Louis (10 hits, seven earned runs in four innings). No one remembers that in three starts before that, he allowed one earned run with 23 strikeouts in 19 innings. 

The unfortunate part for Kershaw is that he plays on a team that’s not very good when he’s not on the mound. The Dodgers bullpen is terrible, finishing 22nd in ERA while posting the third-most walks. They have also never been a team that plays well against other good teams. 

Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated wrote in his Dodgers playoff preview that the team being 26 games over .500 in the regular season results almost exclusively from playing the worst teams in the National League West:

In all, the Dodgers have the most potent offense of any NL team outside of the Rockies (4.43 runs per game) while allowing 3.81 runs per game (seventh) en route to the league’s second-best record and run differential (+101). It’s worth noting, however, that they piled up the wins against the NL West’s lesser teams, going a combined 40-17 (.702) with a +75 run differential against the Padres, Rockies and Diamondbacks, but just 54-51 (.514) against the rest of their schedule.

The Dodgers are returning to the scene of last year’s playoff defeat, taking on St. Louis in the Division Series. Adam Wainwright may not be Kershaw, but he’s really good on his own with a 2.38 ERA and 4.5 FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. 

Los Angeles rates well as a defensive team overall, with 26 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs, but the outfield was pedestrian with Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford all having below-average overall defensive ratings. 

Kershaw can do many things on a baseball field, but he can’t catch balls not hit to him and the team has been average against anyone besides the bottom three teams in the National League West. That’s why the Dodgers won’t make it to the World Series. 

Washington Will Win the World Series

Despite my earlier talk about no great teams in baseball right now, picking the World Series winner was among the easiest tasks of all the playoff predictions because they meet all the criteria that we look for when evaluating a championship team. 

The Nationals had the best rotation by ERA (3.04) in baseball this year. They have five starters with a legitimate argument to start in the postseason, and three finished with an ERA under 3.00 (Jordan Zimmermann, Tanner Roark, Doug Fister). 

ESPN’s Doug Glanville had the best “analysis” on which starter opposing teams may want to pick on:

Their bullpen finished strong after Drew Storen moved back to the closer’s role, finishing fourth with a 3.00 ERA. They have above-average or better defenders at shortstop (Ian Desmond), third base (Anthony Rendon) and catcher (Wilson Ramos). 

The one Achilles heel that seemed to be holding the Nationals back was on offense. Overall, the numbers are strong with the eighth-best on-base percentage (.321), ninth-most runs (686) and 10th-best slugging percentage (.393). 

Any problems with the bat seem to have been fixed in August, which is when Bryce Harper started looking like the slugger we all expected him to be before that injury earlier in the season. He hit 10 of his 13 homers in the final two months, which gave the Nationals a nice trio in the middle of their order with Rendon and Adam LaRoche. 

Every other team has a notable flaw that you can single out as a reason why it won’t win the World Series. The Cardinals don’t score runs; the Dodgers are average when Kershaw isn’t on the mound; the Pirates are relying on Edinson Volquez in their rotation. 

The Nationals are the best and most complete team in baseball entering the postseason and will capture the first World Series title in franchise history. 

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