Tag: Preview/Prediction

MLB Winter Meetings 2016: Dates, Schedule, Rumors and Predictions

The first week of December is typically an optimistic time for all 30 Major League Baseball teams because it marks the start of the winter meetings, where club executives and agents discuss potential deals.

There was a storm cloud hanging over this year’s meetings, though, with owners and the players’ union struggling to agree to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement.

Fortunately, the two sides found the middle ground to keep the two decades of labor peace alive and well. It also ensured this year’s winter meetings, which begin Sunday, will continue to be an active spot for teams to talk potential free-agent signings and trades to boost their outlooks for 2017.

   

Rumors

Extended Party at Napoli’s

Mike Napoli proved as a member of the Cleveland Indians last season that he still has some gas left in the tank with a .239/.335/.465 slash line and new career highs in home runs (34), RBI (101) and games played (150).

It’s no surprise that Napoli‘s looking to cash in on one more multiyear deal, but there’s reportedly a gap between what he wants and what the Indians are willing to offer.

“Club executives say Mike Napoli is looking for a three-year deal, following a season in which he hit 34 homers and drove in 101 runs,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported. “The Indians, responding to the glut of sluggers in the market, would prefer to limit their investment in Napoli or another slugger to one year.”

While Napoli was a valuable piece in Cleveland’s lineup last season, he has severe limitations, recording a .322 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching while rating as one of the worst defensive first basemen in the American League, per FanGraphs.

Despite their success in 2016, the Indians are still a small-market team that has to be diligent in how it spends money.

The Indians know they already have one player who’s capable of shifting between first base and designated hitter—Carlos Santana. If they don’t want to rush Michael Brantley back to the outfield from his various shoulder problems, he can handle DH duties early in the year. 

The Seattle Mariners have reportedly shown interest in Napoli, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. But Bob Dutton of the News Tribune reported they plan to use a combination of Dan Vogelbach and Danny Valencia at first base.

This isn’t the ideal market for Napoli to cash in, with Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Brandon Moss and Steve Pearce among the other available options.

The New York Yankees have also been linked to Napoli, per Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, though they don’t seem to be a fit as a rebuilding club that should be giving at-bats to young talent in hopes of competing for a playoff spot in 2018.

Things can change, especially when teams get desperate, but as it stands, the Indians look like they could luck out by virtue of a market surplus and bring back Napoli at their price for one more run at the World Series title in 2017 after finishing one win short this year.

Prediction: Indians re-sign Napoli for one year.

              

The Chapman Conundrum

On the heels of another dominant season that ended with a World Series title with the Chicago Cubs, closer Aroldis Chapman could end up earning the biggest deal ever given to a reliever. 

Since being promoted to the big leagues in 2010, Chapman ranks second among all relievers in wins above replacement (14.1), per FanGraphs. He’s achieved that status by posting a 2.08 ERA with 636 strikeouts and 201 hits allowed in 377 innings.

George A. King III of the New York Post reported the Yankees will likely be the front-runners to sign Chapman, though he noted that could change if the closer “really is looking for five years and $100 million.”

Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the highest average annual salary for a reliever in MLB history is $15 million, which Yankees legend Mariano Rivera received from 2008 to 2012. 

Chapman has the on-field pedigree to warrant that kind of money, and he picked an opportune time to hit the market after an October in which relievers dominated the conversation.

But there are other options for teams to pick from. Kenley Jansen, who has been nearly as dominant as Chapman, is also available. Mark Melancon is an older free agent at 31, but he’s had sub-2.00 ERAs in three of the previous four seasons.

At this point, it seems like it will be the Yankees or bust for Chapman, who hasn’t hidden his love for the organization.

It would be a puzzling fit, however. The Yankees need to find starting pitchers, especially since Masahiro Tanaka can opt out of his contract after next season, for when their young position players are ready to take off—and their dominant bullpen featuring Chapman, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances didn’t lead to results last year.

Prediction: Yankees sign Chapman for five years.

     

Running Up That Rich Hill

In a particularly dreadful market for starting pitching, Rich Hill, who still possesses the ability to miss bats and limit hard contact, is the best of the bunch.

There’s a steep downside with Hill, who turns 37 in March, as last year marked the first time he’s hit 100 innings in an MLB season since 2007.

Despite those red flags, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden reported the Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are in full pursuit of Hill, with the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles also expressing some interest.

The Yankees need more starting pitching, but their focus should be on finding someone who can contribute in 2018 and beyond. They’ve also largely gotten out of the habit of giving multiyear deals to players on the wrong side of 30, at least for the time being.

The two Texas teams could also use starting pitching to get over the hump in 2017, yet neither feels like an ideal fit for Hill—and putting his fragile body in the exhausting Texas heat during the summer months is an easy way for him to fall apart.

The Dodgers should still provide Hill with the best overall package. They need a strong No. 2 starter behind Clayton Kershaw, have money to spend and understand how to handle Hill to keep him healthy after acquiring him from the Oakland Athletics in August.

A two-year deal with a sufficient average annual salary could be just the thing to entice him to remain on the West Coast.

Prediction: Dodgers re-sign Hill for two years.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Rumors: Top Trade Rumors Ahead of 2016 Winter Meetings

Although the winter meetings are sure to bring plenty of shakeups across Major League Baseball, the trade hot stove is already kicking into high gear with several huge names reportedly available for the right price.

Many of the top free agents remain untouched thus far, and while those dominoes promise to fall in the near future, some of the biggest moves made this offseason may occur on the trade market due to an apparent willingness to orchestrate some blockbuster swaps.

As the trade winds continue to blow, here is a closer look at some of the top players rumored to be available leading up to the winter meetings.

 

Andrew McCutchen

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen has long been among the most consistent producers in the game, but on the heels of arguably his worst full season in Major League Baseball, his time with the Bucs may be running out.

According to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark, the Pirates and Washington Nationals have had talks involving McCutchen with Pittsburgh potentially having interest in pitchers Joe Ross and Reynaldo Lopez.

Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com confirmed the talks and added that the Pirates may be looking to acquire Lopez, outfield prospect Victor Robles and one other player.

The 2016 season was undoubtedly a disappointment for McCutchen, as he hit a career-low .256 with 24 home runs, 79 RBI and a career-low six stolen bases.

McCutchen was an All-Star in each of the previous five seasons and finished fifth or better in the NL MVP voting in each of the previous four seasons, including winning the award in 2013.

While 2016 was a down year, McCutchen was one of MLB‘s top five-tool threats for several seasons leading up to that. He has hit at least 21 home runs every seasons since 2011, he drove in at least 83 runs every year from 2011 through 2015 and he has stolen 20 or more bases in a season five times, although his attempts have gone down progressively over the past four years.

McCutchen also won a Gold Glove in center field in 2012, and he has enough range to cover a ton of ground when healthy.

It is possible that McCutchen‘s best days are behind him at 30 years of age, so Pittsburgh’s interest in trading him is understandable.

Washington’s interest in acquiring him is equally understandable, though, since he could combine with Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner to form one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

The price may be steep in terms of young players, but a returned-to-form McCutchen may be exactly what the Nats need to reach the next level.

 

Chris Sale

Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale is undoubtedly among the top pitchers in baseball, but he could be on the move, as the struggling Sox look to shake things up.

According to Jon Heyman of FanRagSports.com, the Nationals, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Dodgers are the top teams that have show interest in dealing for the electric lefty.

Heyman also noted the type of value Chicago is hoping to land in return:

The 27-year-old has been a starting pitcher for five seasons, and he has finished sixth or better in American League Cy Young voting in each of those seasons.

Sale tied his career high with 17 wins last season to go along with a 3.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 233 strikeouts in 226.2 innings.

Few pitchers in baseball have nastier stuff than Sale, and the fact that he is both tall and a lefty makes him seem nearly unhittable at times.

A well-documented outburst that saw Sale cut up the team’s throwback jerseys last season may have soured his relationship with the organization, and it is fair to wonder if it is playing a role in Chicago’s potential desire to deal him.

The White Sox are a team that can’t seem to escape mediocrity, however, and the easiest way to take a different approach is by trading a star that will bring back multiple assets.

Sale would do precisely that, and he could also make a team a top World Series contender due to his ability to anchor a starting rotation.

 

Jay Bruce

Following the return of outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to the New York Mets in free agency, Jay Bruce’s days in the Big Apple could be numbered.

The Mets acquired Bruce from the Cincinnati Reds prior to the trade deadline last season, and although he hit 33 home runs overall and was named to his third All-Star team, he hit just .217 with eight homers and 19 RBI in 50 games with the Mets.

That makes him expendable, and one team that has shown major interest is the Toronto Blue Jays, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick.

The Jays may lose both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion in free agency, and they will be in dire need of additional power should that happen.

Bruce is a streaky player, but the 29-year-old has 241 career home runs to his credit, including four seasons with 30 or more homers.

Toronto plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark much like Cincinnati, so Bruce could bounce back from his rough stretch with the Mets should a trade be consummated.

Bruce isn’t as reliable as Bautista and Encarnacion when they are healthy, but he would come at a cheaper price and the commitment wouldn’t be as great since he can become a free agent next offseason.

A similar player in Mark Trumbo made the leap to the AL East last season and enjoyed a career year with the Baltimore Orioles, and something similar could occur for Bruce in Toronto.

 

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Impact MLB Deals Most Likely to Be Pulled off During 2016 Winter Meetings

The baseball world is about to descend on National Harbor in Maryland, as MLB‘s 2016 winter meetings are set to kick off on Monday. And things are sure to be rather interesting.

That’s not to say that it hasn’t been an interesting offseason thus far. But with names like Chris Archer, Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Encarnacion, Andrew McCutchen and Chris Sale all making the rounds on the rumor mill, it’s easy to believe that the baseball world is about to be turned upside down. 

While the winter meetings often serve as the place that future deals are born, it’d be shocking if there weren’t a few notable transactions completed while the baseball universe takes over the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center.

Will Encarnacion sign? Is McCutchen going to be traded? Who, among Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon, will be the first of the elite closers to come off the market?

What follows are five impact deals that we believe will be pulled off during baseball’s annual gathering, some of them providing answers to the questions above.

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Bleacher Report Predicts Landing Spots for Top 25 MLB Free Agents, Trade Targets

While there have been a few significant moves already in MLB since the World Series wrapped up roughly a month ago, things generally don’t get going until the annual winter meetings, which are set for Dec. 4-8 in National Harbor, Maryland.

There figures to be no shortage of blockbuster trades and notable free-agent signings during the upcoming event, but before that happens, let’s make some predictions.

What follows is a look at the top 25 free agents and trade targets on the market with predictions from six of our top MLB writers on where they will land.

These six writers made up our panel of prognosticators:

Having six writers weigh in gave us plenty of different opinions, and in the end we only had two consensus predictions among the 25 players.

It will be fun to look back in a few months to see who got the most picks right, but for now, here’s our best guess at how this year’s free-agent and trade markets will unfold this winter.

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Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB’s Hottest Pre-2016 Winter Meetings Buzz

Labor peace has returned to baseball, ending the veiled threats of lockouts and boycotts of the winter meetings, which are set to begin next week. That’s good news.

It’s even better news—and a stone-cold fact—that sanity has returned to MLB‘s All-Star Game, which will no longer have any World Series implications associated with it. That alone makes the new collective bargaining agreement a rousing success.

As Bleacher Report’s Jacob Shafer wrote Wednesday, the offseason should really start to get interesting now. 

Has the return of a team’s adopted prodigal son forced one of his teammates out the door? Will a fringe contender look to unload an All-Star talent? Is the face of one of baseball’s oldest franchises about to change for the first time in nearly a decade?

We’ll hit on all that and more in this week’s edition of Fact or Fiction.

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Predictions for the 2016 MLB Winter Meetings, 1 Week Out

Generally speaking, the annual winter meetings are when the MLB offseason really takes off.

While we’ve already seen a handful of notable free-agent signings and a few significant trades, there’s still a lot of roster shuffling to be done between now and the start of spring training.

That wheeling and dealing will kick into high gear next week, as all 30 teams will converge on National Harbor, Maryland, from Dec. 4-8 for four days of excitement.

With an incredibly weak pitching market, this year’s meetings in particular could have a feel similar to the days leading up to the trade deadline when the rumor mill was buzzing and more than a few trades come to fruition.

So, one week out, what follows are some quick predictions on what this year’s winter meetings might bring.

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Updated Predictions for Where MLB’s Top 15 Remaining Free Agents Will Land

We’re less than a month into the Hot Stove League and, already, five of the MLB free agents that appeared on our initial Top 25 Big Board at the end of September have come off the market.

On the surface, none of those deals appear to be eye-poppingly absurd or out of place, but it begs the question: If these are the kinds of contracts that players outside our Top 10 landed, what sort of deals await the best free agents still on the market? 

We’ll attempt to answer that on the pages that follow by taking these already completed acquisitions, the latest chatter on the rumor mill and the perceived demand (or lack thereof) for a particular position into account.

Let’s get to it.

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Creating a United States Team That Can Win the 2017 World Baseball Classic

The World Baseball Classic is back—or it will be this spring, with the fourth installment of the international baseball tournament scheduled to kick off on Mar. 6 and the championship game slated for Mar. 22 at Dodger Stadium.

The United States team enters the upcoming tournament still searching for its first World Baseball Classic title.

In fact, it has yet to finish higher than fourth, with that result coming back in 2009. It also has an eighth-place finish in 2006 and a sixth-place finish in 2013 to its credit.

Japan claimed the first two WBC titles, with the Dominican Republic besting Puerto Rico last time around to give the tournament a new defending champion.

So what will it take for the U.S. team to come out on top?

Convincing more of the country’s elite-level talent to participate would be a good first step.

That strategy is already off to a rocky start, though, as Mike Trout and Bryce Harper were both left off the preliminary 50-man roster and appear unlikely to participate, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

However, there’s still a wealth of talent that could find its way onto the Team USA roster, and what follows is one attempt at assembling a U.S. team capable of winning it all.

                  

Note: The 2013 U.S. team featured 15 pitchers (four starters and 11 relievers) and 13 position players (three catchers, six infielders and four outfielders). While those roster parameters are not a requirement, they were used as a blueprint in the following exercise.

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2017 MLB Free Agents: Rumors and Predictions for Hottest Available Players

Now that MLB teams drew first blood in the offseason’s free-agency market, expect the floodgates to soon open.

The Toronto Blue Jays started the party by officially signing Kendrys Morales, a clear sign of them fearing the end of their relationship with star sluggers Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista. The Houston Astros also acted early by signing Josh Reddick, as first reported by Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan. They continued to bolster their offense by acquiring catcher Brian McCann from the New York Yankees.

Two days later, the St. Louis Cardinals set the table for an expensive bullpen market by signing southpaw Brett Cecil to a four-year deal, also first reported by Passan. Upon seeing the early transaction, available closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon probably laughed maniacally and envisioned record-setting paydays for relief pitchers.

In the aftermath of these early moves, the American League East is particularly gearing up to land marquee free agents. Let’s take a look at the latest buzz around the league.

   

Bidding War for Carlos Beltran?

In a hitter-heavy free-agent crop, a slugger set to turn 40 in April is attracting the most suitors.

According to the Boston Herald‘s Evan Drellich, designated hitter Carlos Beltran has a “more robust” market than Encarnacion, who will command a larger salary after belting 42 home runs in 2016. Beltran, who has played for five teams in the past six seasons, proved he has more power to offer after hitting .295/.337/.513 with 29 long balls for the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers last season.

Drellich said the Bronx Bombers are looking to reacquire the man they dealt in July, but a bitter rival is also eyeing his services. Seen as an ideal David Ortiz replacement, one source identified Beltran to Drellich as the Boston Red Sox’s “top priority” this offseason.

Before setting up another one-on-one battle between the big-market behemoths, the Rangers and Astros are still in play. Although Reddick and McCann give Houston a crowded lineup, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal confirmed Drellich‘s claim that the Astros are not backing out of the Beltran sweepstakes:

Unfortunately for them, the McCann trade makes a Yankees reunion far more realistic. They cleared a bloated contract off the books and reopened up the designated-hitter slot. Loaded with young talent after last year’s deadline haul, a short-term upgrade would work perfectly for the Evil Empire.

The smooth-swinging switch-hitter also took a liking to Yankee Stadium, where he hit .302/.363/.598 with 14 homers in 201 plate appearances last season. Don’t be surprised if the Yankees and Beltran press the reset button and reunite for a one- or two-year contract.

Prediction: Beltran signs two-year deal with Yankees. 

   

Blue Jays Targeting Dexter Fowler

The Blue Jays already purchased insurance for their worst fears by bringing aboard Morales, who should slide into Encarnacion‘s DH role. An offensive specialist with a .795 OPS, however, will not maintain their lineup’s luster.

If both stars indeed sign elsewhere, Toronto won’t replicate their elite production. Knowing their power will take a major hit, the franchise is looking to instead locate a strong leadoff hitter with keen on-base abilities, per Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi:

If that’s what they want, Dexter Fowler is the perfect candidate. The center fielder, who will turn 31 before Opening Day, notched a .393 on-base percentage atop the Chicago Cubs’ batting order due to a stellar 14.3 walk percentage. Over his career, he has reached base at a .366 clip.

He would also need to move positions with defensive stalwart Kevin Pillar occupying center. The Blue Jays would certainly delight their pitching staff by instead complementing him with Adam Eaton, who accrued 22 defensive runs saved, per FanGraphs, after moving from center to right field for the Chicago White Sox.

Although Eaton’s career .357 on-base percentage fits the bill, there’s little reason to believe the White Sox would trade him. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the 27-year-old will make $18.4 million over the next three years before the team can evoke club options in both 2020 and 2021.

Fowler is the more realistic target, but he should draw major interest following a career year. Expect him to get more money from another contender, which may compel the Blue Jays to bring back Michael Saunders instead.

Predictions: Fowler signs four-year deal elsewhere; Eaton stays put.

    

Yankees Gear Up for Big Moves

Before setting up a Beltran press conference, the Yankees are reportedly also aiming their sights much higher.

According to FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman, the Yankees are pursuing Encarnacion as well as Beltran following the McCann trade. In an MLB Network Radio interview, ESPN’s Jim Bowden expressed confidence in them attaining either Encarnacion or outfielder Yoenis Cespedes:

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman traded several key pieces last summer, but he’s now open to quickly replenishing the roster rather than patiently restocking. As he told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, he’s willing to explore all avenues:

I’m going to be open-minded to all of it. I’m going to be open-minded to what’s available. We now will pursue bats, but we’ll see if it takes us anywhere. It could be a DH-only situation; obviously the preference always is going to be someone that can provide positional ability so you have more flexibility on your roster. We’ll see where it takes us.

Burned by splashy signings in the past, it seems strange for the Yankees to dip their feet back in the expensive free-agent pool this winter. They finally shed McCann, Beltran, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez off the payroll and got significantly younger, so why give another veteran a hefty contract two years before Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Clayton Kershaw can hit the open market?

It’s a new era in the Big Apple, so expect Cashman and Co. to stay patient and settle for Beltran. If anything, they’ll make a splash by bringing back Chapman or another premier reliever.

As the Yankees gradually build their next superteam, the Red Sox will roll the dice now by signing Encarnacion. Having lost Reddick and facing the possibility of watching Justin Turner leave as well, the Los Angeles Dodgers clear their deep pockets to pry Cespedes from the New York Mets.

Predictions: Encarnacion signs four-year deal with Red Sox; Cespedes joins Dodgers on five-year contract; Chapman goes back to Yankees for four-year deal.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Elite MLB Prospects Who Are Linchpins in Possible Blockbuster Winter Trades

This year’s MLB offseason is shaping up to be a busy one on the trade market as teams turn their attention to potential blockbuster deals to offset one of the weakest free-agent markets in recent memory.

That should lead to plenty of talks of potential blockbuster deals during this year’s winter meetings, which will take place from Dec. 4-8 in National Harbor, Maryland.

Chicago White Sox ace Chris Sale will be a special case, as acquiring him will mean giving up young talent that would be otherwise untouchable.

It will still take significant prospect talent to swing a deal for the likes of Jose Quintana (CWS), Chris Archer (TB) and Sonny Gray (OAK), among others who could be shopped.

With that in mind, what follows is a look at the prospects who could be used as linchpins in a winter blockbuster deal.

However, first we needed to narrow down which teams will be in a position to potentially pull off such a trade.

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