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There are middle-aged men and women out there who have never had the pleasure of watching a Major League Baseball player achieve the Triple Crown.

This could change as soon as Wednesday night. Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is this close to becoming MLB‘s first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. 

Heading into Tuesday’s contest against the Kansas City Royals, Cabrera is leading the American League with a .329 batting average, 44 home runs and 137 RBI. He has a four-point lead over Mike Trout in the batting race, and he leads Josh Hamilton by one home run and 10 RBI.

It’s going to be a tight finish, but Cabrera has been hot enough over the last couple weeks to deserve the benefit of the doubt that he’ll get it done. All he’s done over his last 35 games is hit .341 with 13 home runs and 35 RBI.

So let’s go ahead and assume that Cabrera is going to finish this thing off (there’s the jinx). What then?

Best player ever, right? Or at the very least, maybe the best player in baseball? Best hitter? Best-dressed? Best smile?

I mean, come on, he’ll have to sit atop some sort of ranking/category/chart if he actually manages to polish off his Triple Crown season, right? Such a season would surely elevate him to, well, something.

In my opinion: Yes, absolutely. It’s just not so simple, hence the reason we need an immediate discussion.

Would the Triple Crown Make Cabrera the Best Player in Baseball?

If you’ve gone anywhere near an internet discussion of the American League MVP race in recent weeks, you’ll know where this particular discussion is headed.

The answer is no. Winning the Triple Crown will not make Cabrera the best player in baseball by default.

Oh, don’t go and get up in arms. This is nothing you haven’t heard before, and it’s a sentiment that is proven way too easily.

The Triple Crown is a remarkable feat. Nobody is going to say that it’s not. It’s only been done 15 times before in MLB history, including just nine time since 1933.

The list of players that have achieved the Triple Crown includes names like Yaz, Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx and Rogers Hornsby. Cabrera may as well be a musician trying to carve his name next to those of John, Paul, George and Ringo.

But in this day and age, we know that measuring the value of a given hitter by his batting average and his homer and RBI count is a flawed approach. Home runs are very important, but batting average and runs batted in both have their limitations.

One is a stat that assumes all hits are equal while also ignoring a hitter’s overall ability to get on base, and the other is a stat that reflects just as well on the hitters ahead of a given hitter as it does on the given hitter himself.

We can do better these days. On-base percentage is preferable to batting average in many ways, and we have things like OPS and OPS+ to held us determine just how much of an impact a given hitter is making at the plate.

When it comes to stuff like this, though, there’s really no need for old-school fans and new-school fans to argue, as stats like OPS and OPS+ all reveal Cabrera to be exactly the kind of hitter his Triple Crown chase says he is. He’s one of the best there is (more on whether he’s the best in a moment).

But this doesn’t make him the best player. In fact, suggesting that the best hitter in baseball is also the best player in baseball is nothing short of ridiculous.

Again, we all know where the discussion is going here. The new-school stat geeks love Cabrera’s hitting abilities, but they frown on his defensive and baserunning abilities (or lack thereof), and for good reason. When he’s not hitting, Cabrera isn’t such a great player.

Nobody seems very interested in arguing that Cabrera isn’t a liability on the basepaths, but things can get heated in regards to his defense.

The eye test doesn’t reveal Cabrera to be a total disaster at third base, and he does have a fairly nifty .966 fielding percentage. So why all the complaints?

Because for the sabermetrics crowd, this is like pointing to Cabrera’s RBI count as a tell-tale sign of his value. Fielding percentage is even worse in many ways, as it gives a fielder credit for making easy plays while only docking him points if he makes an error. The truth is that a fielder doesn’t need to make an error in order for him to not make a play he should have made.

This is why we have things like Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved, both of which are tracked by FanGraphs. UZR uses play-by-play data to determine how many “theoretical” runs a fielder saves or costs his team. DRS does something very similar, measuring a player’s defensive quality in terms of how many runs below- or above-average he is.

Sorry for boring you if you’ve heard all this before, but the point is that these metrics suggest…no, scream that Cabrera is a bad fielder. He ranks dead-last among AL third baseman with a UZR of -9.2, and he also has a DRS of -4.

A truly great player can contribute at the plate, on the basepaths and in the field. The best stat we have that measures a player’s total contribution is, of course, WAR.

WAR is the reason why a lot of people are in love with Mike Trout, who tops FanGraphs‘ charts with a WAR of 10.3. And presently, it’s a stat that tells us players like Robinson Cano, Andrew McCutchen, David Wright, Buster Posey and Ryan Braun have all had better seasons than Cabrera.

This doesn’t mean a case can’t be made that Cabrera isn’t the AL MVP, but that’s a whole other headache. The point is that his overall contributions don’t measure up to those of some of MLB’s other great players. He’s in the same league as they are offensively, but not in terms of the completeness of his game.

Cabrera winning the Triple Crown would change nothing. All it would tell us about Cabrera is that he’s an amazing hitter.

As for whether it would officially make him the best hitter in baseball, well, let’s just say it’s a little complicated.

Would the Triple Crown Make Cabrera the Best Hitter in Baseball?

For many, the Triple Crown is the ultimate validation of a hitter’s dominance. The fact that Triple Crown seasons are so rare definitely lends some credence to this notion.

My question is whether Cabrera really needed something like a Triple Crown season to validate his status as the best hitter in baseball. 

I mean, wasn’t he already?

You could have debated it before the season, but it would have been pretty hard. The numbers all favor Cabrera.

In 2010 and 2011, Cabrera combined to hit .337/.434/.604 with a 1.038 OPS. No player hit for a higher average, no player compiled a higher OBP, and only Jose Bautista posted a higher slugging percentage. Cabrera’s OPS between 2010 and 2011 topped Bautista‘s by 13 points.

We can dig even deeper using sabermetric stats. Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is a stat that combines all the different aspects of hitting and weighs each of them in proportion to their run value. In time, it may overtake OPS as the most important offensive statistic.

In 2010 and 2011, Cabrera compiled a wOBA of .432, higher than that of any other player.

As such, it really didn’t matter whether you favored traditional stats or new-age stats. Heading into this season, all signs pointed towards Cabrera being baseball’s top hitter.

His track record hasn’t gotten any worse throughout the course of this season. Per FanGraphs, Cabrera leads all hitters in average, slugging and wOBA since the start of the 2010 season. Only Joey Votto (another drool-worthy hitter) has a higher OBP, but Cabrera’s OPS since 2010 trumps Votto‘s by a full 27 points.

You could be completely oblivious to the fact that Cabrera is chasing a Triple Crown season. One look at these stats (and the knowledge of what they mean) would tell you that the best hitter in baseball is none other than Miguel Cabrera.

As such, Cabrera’s triple crown pursuit is more a bow on his larger body of work, and not so much part of the body of work itself. His pursuit of the Triple Crown has more to do with his reputation than anything else.

Hmmm…”Reputation.” I think we may be getting somewhere.

Would the Triple Crown Make Cabrera the Most Celebrated Player in Baseball?

Players who achieve the Triple Crown immediately become living gods as far as baseball fans are concerned. That’s what the legends say, anyway.

Ever has it been, and so shall it be with Miguel Cabrera. If he finishes his pursuit of the triple crown, baseball immortality is his.

And if you look back on where he’s been, you’ll realize that he will have come quite a long way to achieve baseball immortality.

Think back, if you will, to early October of 2009. That was when Cabrera’s problems with alcoholism spilled over into the public domain, as he found himself in the company of the police with a blood alcohol level three times the legal limit in Michigan after he had gotten into an altercation with his wife.

Meanwhile in the background, Cabrera’s Tigers were still in the middle of a fight for the AL Central title. It was a battle they eventually lost, and Cabrera was fingered by many as a villain even after he went 2-for-5 with a homer in a tiebreaking game against the Minnesota Twins a few days after the incident.

Cabrera’s poor reputation stuck for a while longer, and it was fueled by additional alcohol-related incidents, the most recent of which came in February of 2011.

Now look at Cabrera. He’s the most feared hitter in baseball, and he’s calmed down to the point where he didn’t even have any interest in being in the middle of Detroit’s celebration of its division-clinching win over the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night. As Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports told the story, Cabrera was content to linger out of sight. He’s no longer the dumb, privileged superstar so many thought he was a couple years ago.

It goes without saying that Cabrera has his teammates on his side. And since ESPN’s Buster Olney has written that the vast majority of MLB’s “uniformed personnel” (meaning players and coaches) support Cabrera for the AL MVP over Mike Trout, it’s apparent that he has his peers on his side as well.

And from what I can tell, it’s very safe to say that he has the fans on his side. Those who hate all the sabermetric stuff love Cabrera. Those who love the sabermetric stuff think Trout is a better player, but none of them have anything against Cabrera. Everyone is well aware that this is a banner year for a truly excellent baseball player.

So maybe the question of Cabrera’s season shouldn’t be whether he’s now the best player or the best hitter in baseball. Maybe it should be whether his Triple Crown pursuit has made him the most beloved player in baseball.

That’s entirely up to you, dear readers. All I can say is that it’s pretty amazing that we can even ask that question with a straight face knowing where Cabrera as recently as the winter of 2011.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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If Mike Trout does not win the American League MVP, I will lose all faith in humanity.

Okay, maybe that’s a stretch. The Most Valuable Player in the AL has been one of the hottest topics in baseball with the subject becoming scorching hot over the past few weeks.

For the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, you have the phenom and without-a-doubt choice for this year’s Rookie of the Year award-winner in Mike Trout. The center fielder, at 21 years of age, is setting himself up to be the winner of MVP awards for years to come.

On the other side, Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera has the opportunity to accomplish something on a baseball diamond that fans haven’t seen since Carl Yastrzemski did it in 1967: win the Triple Crown.

Before going into my reasons for why Trout should come out on top, I want to give full and complete disclosure that I believe both have had seasons deserving of the award. Please do not take my higher admiration for Trout’s season as a knock on Cabrera’s accomplishments in 2012. Both are incredible.

This is, however, an article on the most valuable player, not players.

A decision must be made.

And although I don’t have a vote, if I did I would select Trout.

While the numbers speak volumes, the numbers themselves aren’t the entire basis of my argument, but it’s still a good place to start.

Cabrera leads all three major batting categories of batting average, home runs and runs batted in over Trout with just two games left in the season. Cabrera’s stats would earn him the first Triple Crown in 45 years, and that is nothing to just brush off.

Cabrera has a stat line of .329/44/137 and helped earn the Detroit Tigers their first consecutive division titles in 77 years.

At .325/30/83, Trout’s season will end on Wednesday with the Angels failing to make it to October baseball.

These numbers are a tad deceiving for a variety of reasons.

Again, no knock on Cabrera. Any GM in baseball would love to have a guy playing for their team who put up those numbers. Just as I’m sure the Angels would have loved to have had Mike Trout for an entire season as opposed to calling him up in late April when the team was 6-14. Hindsight is 20/20, but for those who value the “did (player) lead his team to the playoffs” argument, you do have to wonder what type of impact on the standings Trout could have made in those 20 games he missed.

Even without those extra 20 games, Trout still managed to do something no rookie has ever accomplished: hitting 30-plus home runs while stealing 40-plus bases in the same season. Currently sitting at 48 steals, if Trout were to swipe two more bags by the end of his season Wednesday, he would join Eric Davis and Barry Bonds as the only players in MLB history with a 30 HR/50 SB season.

Trout has eight triples this season compared to zero by Cabrera and has also scored 129 runs compared to Cabrera’s 109.

Where they bat in the lineup plays a decent-sized role here. Trout is a leadoff guy, so it is assumed he would score more runs than someone like Cabrera who bats in the middle of the order. On the other side, Cabrera typically bats with runners on base more frequently than Trout and that gives him an advantage in the RBI count. Looking at these numbers, the case for Cabrera to win MVP is not huge in my opinion, but from the basic stats alone he would get my vote.

This isn’t your grandfather’s game anymore. The entire hierarchy, from ownership to general managers, to fans like ourselves have new stats and tools to evaluate talent in a much more accurate way than in the past.

Because of this I believe the Triple Crown is overrated.

Since 1909, the award has been won 12 times, including both leagues having Triple Crown winners in Jimmie Foxx and Chuck Klein in 1933. Yes, it was a different era back then, but the whole “once in a lifetime” argument is a bit tired in my opinion. Let’s save that phrase for a Cubs World Series title.

On that same thought, I am not a huge saber metrics guy. I believe the game has done an excellent job at integrating technology (okay, minus the replays) and bringing the game along while still holding on to the romanticism of the good old days of baseball. When determining an MVP, I believe the old school stats and saber metrics should be mixed in with watching the games themselves.

This is where Trout takes over the vote in my opinion.

As mentioned earlier, Trout is much quicker than Cabrera as seen by stats such as stolen bases (48 to 4). What doesn’t show up in the cookie-cut stat sheet of MLB.com is how frequently Trout has advanced from first to third on a shallow fly ball and how often he is able to score from second on a ball that routinely wouldn’t allow a run.

By watching Trout play, you realize just how much of an effect he has on the game that pen and paper could never tell you.

Sure, in the box score it may just say “F-8,” but in reality Trout has made numerous plays this season that should have been singles, doubles in the gap or even home runs, and turned them into outs.

Cabrera is not too great of a defender. And while the move to third, where he is an average/slightly below average fielder in my opinion, was done in order to accommodate Prince Fielder’s arrival in Detroit, the defensive aspect has me swaying heavily toward Trout.

Miguel Cabrera is one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. If you disagree with that, I am not entirely sure why you are still reading this. When that guy has a bat in his hand, the game could change at any moment.

Mike Trout, on the other hand, is the ultimate five-tool player.

He combines hitting for average with power, can field outstandingly with solid arm strength, as well as change the dynamic of the game with his speed.

WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is a great way to calculate just how a player affects a game based on everything they do on the diamond.  To simplify a rather complex formula, it assigns a numerical value to how many wins that player earns a team compared to a “replacement level” fielder at the same position.

Mike Trout has a WAR of 10.3 while Miguel Cabrera is at 7.1. Trout has led in AL WAR ranking every full month this year with the exception of September, when he was second behind Adrian Beltre. As I’ve stated, I’m not a huge fan of saber metrics, but that stat is very impressive.

There is value in leading your team to the postseason. There is value in the Triple Crown award. There is also value in an outstanding member of a team who virtually carried the organization on his shoulders starting in late April and fell just short of October.

You can’t take a team to the promised land all alone. It takes the entire roster.

Mike Trout didn’t single-handedly fail by not getting the Angels in, just as Miguel Cabrera was not the sole contributor to Detroit’s division title.  For what it’s worth, the Angels have a better record.

At the end of the day, both guys are deserving.  Had the rest of the Angels lived up to expectations and made the playoffs like Detroit, I feel that the conversation would be much closer.

When I eliminate the thought of the team and consider who is the Most Valuable Player?

Mike Trout. Hands down.

Brandon Wheeland is a staff writer for Climbing Tal’s Hill where he covers the Houston Astros. Read his thoughts on all things sports at his blog Wheeland On Sports. Follow him on Twitter @BrandonWheeland

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Over the years, the Triple Crown has gotten to be like a .400 batting average or a 56-game hit streak. The last Triple Crown season happened 45 years ago, and signs pointed toward it never happening again.

We could be just nine days away from having to take these signs down.

As everyone is well aware at this point, Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is making a strong push to become the first Triple Crown winner since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Presently, Cabrera is leading the American League in batting average at .331 and in RBI with 133. His 42 home runs are second only to Josh Hamilton, who hit his 43rd long ball of the season Monday night.

Cabrera has nine games left to surpass Hamilton’s home run total, not to mention hang on to his leads in the batting average and RBI departments. If he does, he’ll have done something that many baseball fans figured they would never get to see again (or in some cases, period).

But can Cabrera do it? For that matter, are the odds even in his favor? Good question. Let’s have an immediate discussion.

Odds of Leading the AL in Batting Average

Cabrera’s .331 batting average is tops in the Junior Circuit by a fairly comfortable margin. The next closest pursuer is Los Angeles Angels super-rookie/best player ever(?) Mike Trout, and he’s only hitting .323.

Better yet for Cabrera, he and Trout are heading in opposite directions where their batting averages are concerned. Trout took a beastly .353 batting average into August, but he’s hitting just .273 since. And through 21 games in September, Trout is hitting just .256. He’s gone 0-fer in five of his last seven games, a notion that would have been laughable as recently as a couple weeks ago.

Cabrera, meanwhile, is hitting an even .350 since the start of August and an absurd .388 over his last 12 games. The Tigers have needed hits, and he’s kept the hits coming.

However, while Cabrera may be pulling away from Trout, he’s not necessarily pulling away from the rest of the field. Derek Jeter and Joe Mauer are within striking distance of Cabrera at .322, and neither of them is slowing down as the season winds down. 

Bad ankle and all, Jeter is hitting .370 over his last 18 games to raise his batting average six points from .316 to .322. Joe Girardi is making things a little easier on Jeter by letting him DH on a regular basis, and this strategy is definitely paying off. Jeter is hitting .309 when he plays shortstop this season and .394 when he DH’s.

Mauer is even hotter than Jeter these days. Over his last 17 games, Mauer is hitting .397 with just 11 strikeouts in 75 plate appearances. He’s raised his batting average 10 points from .312 to .322.

Ron Gardenhire is also making sure Mauer doesn’t get worn out. In September, he’s split Mauer’s playing time fairly equally between catcher, first base and DH. The Twins have done everything their power to keep Mauer’s bat in the lineup, and they’re not about to abandon the system they have in place.

This is a luxury Cabrera doesn’t have, as Jim Leyland needs him at third base every day. Playing third obviously hasn’t affected Cabrera’s offense all that much this season, but he’s not getting the same chances to focus solely on hitting that Jeter and Mauer are getting.

The other thing to keep in mind is that it’s been a week since Cabrera’s last multi-hit game. He’s collected only one hit in each of Detroit’s last six games, compiling a batting average of .261 in the process.

This doesn’t mean Cabrera has gone cold, per se, but he’s going to need to collect a few more multi-hit games between now and the end of the season in order to put pressure on Trout, Jeter and Mauer. If the status quo holds for Cabrera, he’ll be leaving the door open for his pursuers to catch up to him.

Still, it’s not like we’re talking about a player who’s in uncharted territory. Cabrera won the AL batting title in 2011, so this is a road he’s been down before.

Odds: 7/2

Odds of Leading the AL in Home Runs

Only two players in the American League have hit more home runs than Cabrera in September, and he only needs two to leapfrog Josh Hamilton for the AL season lead.

He’s in good shape, right?

Yes he is, but the home run chase is easily the trickiest part of Cabrera’s bid for the Triple Crown. It won’t be easy for him to chase down Hamilton, and there are also other pursuers who could jump in and ruin everything.

For starters, there’s little reason to think that Hamilton is going to stop hitting home runs in the near future. He only has seven home runs this month to Cabrera’s nine, but Hamilton has hit his seven homers in six fewer games.

Hamilton is launching a home run every 7.9 at-bats, whereas Cabrera is launching a home run every 9.1 at-bats.

Much depends on Hamilton staying healthy over the next nine days. That’s always a tricky proposition where he’s concerned, but he should be able to avoid more vision problems now that he knows that his recent issues were caused by too many energy drinks, according to ESPNDallas.com (hey, we’ve all been there, Josh).

Further helping Hamilton’s cause is the fact that six of Texas’ last nine games are at home. Per ESPN.com, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is the eighth-best home run park in the majors this season.

Cabrera, meanwhile, has three games left to play at Comerica Park before the Tigers hit the road to visit Target Field and Kauffman Stadium. Comerica is the 14th-best home run park in the majors, and both Target Field and Kauffman Stadium rank outside the top 15.

The bright side? Cabrera only has to face the Royals and Twins the rest of the way, and both of them have had their issues with the long ball. Only the Yankees have surrendered more homers than the Royals in September among AL teams, and the Twins have given up a total of 187 home runs this season. The only AL team that has surrendered more is the Blue Jays.

So, even though Hamilton is going to have it pretty easy over the next nine days, the odds of Cabrera catching him aren’t necessarily bad.

One thing Cabrera has to worry about, however, are other players catching up to him. It feels like the AL home run race is between Hamilton and Cabrera and nobody else, but Adam Dunn and Edwin Encarnacion both have 41 HRs. They’re right there with the two pace-setters.

Between the two, Dunn is less of a threat. He may have launched two homers on Monday, but those represent two of the mere three home runs he’s hit in September. For that matter, he only has three dingers in his last 20 games dating back to August.

Encarnacion, on the other hand, is doing pretty well. He’s hit six home runs in 59 at-bats this September, or one about every 9.8 at-bats. In the next week-and-a-half, he only has to worry about hitting at Oriole Park at Camden Yards and the Rogers Centre, two rather friendly home run parks.

There’s also a chance Curtis Granderson will crash the party. He has 40 home runs and has hit six home runs in his last 47 at-bats. That’s one every 7.8 at-bats.

Cabrera has won a home run title before, but winning another one this year isn’t going to be easy.

Odds: 5/1

Odds of Leading the AL in RBI

Cabrera is leading the AL in RBI largely because he’s been racking them up in bunches ever since the All-Star break. He has an AL-high 62 RBI in the second half, and so far in September, he has an AL-high 24 RBI.

The only player within sight of Cabrera in the RBI chase is Hamilton, who is nine RBI off the pace, with 124.

That’s a lot of ground to make up, and Hamilton is only capable of doing so much on his own. He can drive himself in by hitting home runs, but he’s only going to rack up RBI in bunches if Ian Kinsler and Elvis Andrus get on base ahead of him.

Good luck with that. Kinsler, the Rangers’ primary leadoff hitter, has an on-base percentage of .280 this month. Andrus has been even worse hitting out of the No. 2 hole, posting an OBP of .244.

It’s a little easier for Cabrera to drive in runs these days. He never knows who’s going to be hitting second in Detroit’s lineup on a daily basis, but at the very least, he knows that Austin Jackson is going to be holding down the leadoff spot. Jackson has a solid .381 OBP this season and a .367 OBP in September. 

Jackson’s ability to consistently get on base is a pretty significant advantage that Cabrera has over Hamilton. Additionally, Cabrera has been driving in runs without hitting the ball out of the park lately, something Hamilton hasn’t been doing quite as well. Thus far in September, Hamilton has yet to record an RBI in a game in which he didn’t also hit a home run.

For Hamilton to catch Cabrera in the RBI chase, he’s going to have to start driving in runs without hitting home runs. And for that, he’s going to need men to get on base ahead of him with regularity.

Even if these things happen, he still needs to hope that Cabrera goes into an RBI slump. So, for the time being, this is an area where Cabrera is in very good shape.

Odds: 3/2

Odds of Pulling Off the Triple Crown

If you were to walk up to me and start twisting my arm and then ask me if Cabrera has a legit chance of winning the Triple Crown, I’d say yes.

I’d say yes because it’s hard to see him losing the leads he has in two of the three key categories. Given the way he’s swinging the bat, I doubt that Cabrera’s batting average is going to sink much lower than .331. If it doesn’t, Trout, Jeter and Mauer are going to need to get insanely hot in order to catch up to Cabrera.

The RBI chase is even more of a done deal. It feels like Cabrera is the only Tigers player who’s actually driving in runs these days, and the amazing part is that this isn’t far from the truth. The 24 runs he’s driven in this month represent about a quarter of the 99 runs Detroit has scored in September.

The home run chase is where Cabrera’s bid for the Triple Crown is at its weakest. He may only be one home run behind Hamilton, but nobody should be foolish enough to think that Hamilton is going to stop hitting the long ball. He did in June and July, but he’s up to 14 home runs since the first of August in only 166 at-bats. That equates to one homer every 11.9 at-bats, which is a strong rate.

Cabrera earning the Triple Crown is a legit possibility, but still short of being a lock.

Odds: 4/1

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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As we approach the end of the 2012 Major League Baseball season, there are several races left to be decided. Yet of all the races that have captivated the nation, the greatest one of them all should not actually be a race. 

I am speaking, of course, about the race between Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera and Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout for the American League Most Valuable Player award. 

As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote about the American League MVP debate, Cabrera’s MVP candidacy this year really isn’t that much better than it was two years ago, when everyone agreed Josh Hamilton deserved the award he ultimately got:

In reality, Cabrera’s 2010 and 2012 offensive performances are almost exactly equal no matter what kinds of metrics you use. In terms of something more accurate like batting runs above average, Cabrera was at +54.9 in 2010 and is at +54.3 this year. Even if you want to evaluate his performance strictly by RBIs, there is essentially no difference between this year and two years ago.

There seems to be two schools of thought out there right now about who should win, but when you really look at what both players have done this season, it is no contest. 

Cabrera has two things going for him that a lot of “old-school voters” are going to love, assuming they both end up coming to fruition. The first one is the triple crown. In Major League Baseball history, traditionally, if a player leads the league in batting average, home runs and RBI, he is going to win the MVP award. 

Since the Baseball Writers’ Association of America has been voting for the MVP award since 1931, nine players have won a triple crown. Of those nine, five have won the award, including the last three players. 

However, two of the three triple-crown stats do nothing to tell you about the value a player adds to his team. RBI is nothing more than an opportunity-based stat, so it is irrelevant. Batting average is a slightly better gauge of hitting prowess, but it hardly tells you what you need to know about value. 

The other thing that Cabrera has going for him that will appeal to a certain sector of the voting populace is the Tigers appear more likely to make the playoffs than the Angels, which is a completely ridiculous way to vote for a regular-season award. 

Stacking Cabrera’s season up against Trout’s, the true MVP becomes much, much clearer. This is not some silly “old school” vs. “new school” debate that is going to keep people arguing forever. 

The simplest stat to look at is wins above replacement (WAR). I am in no way suggesting that it should be the only thing people look at to vote on awards, but it does tell you far more than what you can gauge from triple-crown stats. 

Right now, Trout leads Cabrera in Fangraphs‘ WAR 9.5 to 6.9 and Baseball Reference’s WAR 10.4 to 6.7. Again, that doesn’t nearly tell the whole story, but it is far better than just looking at three offensive stats. 

Looking deeper at offensive numbers, Cabrera holds the slightest of slight edges in weighted on-base average (wOBA), .420 to .418. But Trout has the edge in wRC+, 172 to 168. 

Baserunning is no contest, as Trout is plus-6.1 (best in the American League), and Cabrera is minus-2.9, per Fangraphs. 

Since there is not a lot of separation between the two in offensive numbers, defense becomes a critical factor in this race. 

Cabrera shifted to third base after years of being a below-average defensive first baseman. The results have been, unsurprisingly, underwhelming. He has an Ultimate Zone Rating of minus-9.4 and has cost the Tigers five runs with his glove. 

Trout has been one of the best defensive players in all of baseball while playing one of the most valuable defensive positions in the field. His UZR is 11.9, and he has saved 25 runs with the glove. 

The fact that Trout is doing it at an up-the-middle position has to factor in extra heavily for the people voting on this award. 

Nothing that Cabrera has done this season validates him winning the American League Most Valuable Player award. He has been spectacular and deserves to be commended for it, but he is not the best or most valuable player in baseball this season. 

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It has been the location of baseball’s glamour profession, the real estate of Cobb and Speaker, annexed by DiMaggio. Hallowed ground fought over for supremacy by Mays, Mantle and Snider, who all played a subway ride away from each other.

Its vastness has both swallowed the slow and incompetent whole and enabled the fleet and light-footed to appear as gazelles with mitts. John Fogerty wrote a song about it.

There’s a mystique about baseball and center field. It ranks in sexiness with the football quarterback. You think of a center fielder and a bunch of other s-words come to mind.

Sleek. Silk. Smooth. Slender.

The ace center fielder stands six-foot or a tad taller, has the body fat of Jack Sprat and lopes. He is the robber of home runs, the snagger of triples. He covers more of the diamond than a tarp. He’s not only the center fielder, he’s half a left fielder and half a right fielder, too.

It’s a position that is unforgiving to the butchers who would give it a go, because center field isn’t played, it’s conquered. Many an incompetent have dared wander into its jaws and were never seen again. Speaking of which, anyone see Ron LeFlore lately?

No position in baseball can rival center field when you’re talking style points.

The Tigers’ Austin Jackson is a conqueror. He’s the best center fielder in Detroit since Cobb. And I’m not forgetting that Al Kaline played a couple seasons in center.

Jackson is a loper. He possesses that brilliance all the ace center fielders have had since the dawning of the 20th century: the innate ability to break for the baseball at the crack of the bat, take the most efficient route and arrive just in time for the ball to settle into the glove.

Center-field greatness is passed down, like an Italian family business.

It was early in the 2006 season when I cornered Tigers first-base coach Andy Van Slyke in the glorified closet that passes as the coaches’ office at Comerica Park. The main topic of discussion was his then-new job as coach, but I had to bring up center field.

Van Slyke, in his prime years with the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1980s and ‘90s, was widely renowned as one of the best center fielders in baseball. He was a tall, galloping man who held dominion over the position.

I wanted to know how he learned to play center field so damned good.

“Well, I used to work with Bill Virdon a lot in Pittsburgh,” Van Slyke told me, and he needn’t have said anything else, though he did.

Virdon, with the Pirates in the 1950s and ‘60s, was one of the premier center fielders of his day, though he was far overshadowed by the New York trio of Mays, Mantle and Snider. Virdon could go and get it, so when Van Slyke mentioned Virdon’s name as a tutor, I understood completely.

Van Slyke told me that Virdon worked with him for several years every spring training, imparting his wisdom about routes and jumps and footwork, about angles and awareness.

Virdon passed center field down to Van Slyke. I’d be beside myself to find out from whom Virdon learned.

Third base, on the other hand, is a position that a century’s worth of players have spent making look easy, when it’s anything but.

Third base can’t match center field in sexiness, and part of that is because where the center fielder can take, ahem, center stage for what seems like an eternity as the lofted baseball heads for the deepest part of the ballpark, the third baseman has a split second to make his move.

The third baseman has to have the reactions of a hockey goalie and the fearlessness of a fighter pilot. He can spend half a game on his stomach.

But a great third baseman makes it all look so easy. No matter how hard hit a ball, no matter if it’s skidding along the grass or bounding rapidly by, the great third baseman gloves the ball with seemingly routine effort and rifles a throw to first base to nip the runner by a quarter step. Every time.

It can be very impressive, but it’s rarely sexy. Center field is sexy.

That’s part of what Miguel Cabrera is up against, in his apparent two-man race for the AL MVP with the Boy Wonder Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels.

Trout plays center field, Cabrera third base, and I believe that’s a big reason why Cabrera isn’t considered a shoo-in for the award, despite being on the cusp of capturing baseball’s Triple Crown (leader in BA, HR and RBI) for the first time in 45 years.

Trout is a marvelous baseball player. He is, at 21 years of age, one of the very best players in the game, already. He hits for power, for average and occupies another glamour position—that of lead-off hitter.

“Batting lead-off, and playing center field…”

There is still magic in those words.

Cabrera is having a season that would be a runaway MVP year in just about any other, except for the kid Trout and his highlight-reel play in center field, which has combined with the power and cunning batting eye to give Cabrera a run for his money.

Trout has dropped off, however, at the bat in recent weeks. He hit .284 in August and is at .257 in September. His team is still in the playoff hunt, as is Cabrera’s, so that’s mostly a wash.

It would be easy for MVP voters to become enamored of Trout’s position of glamour, to recall the feats of derring-do he’s accomplished in center field, look at his total offensive numbers (not just the ones since August), and award him not only the Rookie of the Year, but the big enchilada, too.

Those voters will try to justify their vote by pointing to Cabrera and his sometimes uneven play at third base, which isn’t as sexy as center field to begin with, and offer that up as a reason to go with Trout as MVP.

If a man can win the Triple Crown, or come so damn close to it that we’re still wondering if he can do it on Sept. 22, his defense would have to be a combination of Dave Kingman and Dick Stuart’s to cancel it out enough to take him out of the MVP race.

Cabrera is no Brooks Robinson at third base, but he’s not a butcher, either.

If, as an MVP voter, you’re insane enough to wonder whether Cabrera’s glove has actually robbed the Tigers more than his bat has provided, then your vote should be revoked post haste.

Mike Trout has had a brilliant year, maybe the best of any AL rookie in decades. He has Hall of Fame potential. And he plays center field.

Miguel Cabrera might win the Triple Crown. He plays third base. So sue him.

Just be sure to vote for him as MVP before you do.

You can read more Greg Eno at www.GregEno.com!! 

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Mike Trout will, in all likelihood, win the 2012 American League MVP Award.

With just 118 games under his belt in his rookie season, Trout leads the American League with a .328 batting average and 45 stolen bases. He owns a .393 OBP which is third overall in the AL, second in OPS with .963 and his .570 slugging percentage is third behind Josh Hamilton and Miguel Cabrera.

Needless to say, the kid is in good company.

Beyond that, he has 27 home runs, 23 doubles and six triples in his 158 hits.

According to Fangraphs, he has a 8.6 WAR rating, while Baseball Reference puts him at a 10.2 WAR.

The evidence is there. Trout is very deserving of the MVP award. However, there are other players that have been playing incredible baseball this season in the AL that should not be overlooked.

Here is a tip of the cap to those players.

Begin Slideshow

The race for the 2012 American League Most Valuable Player award looks to be a close one.

Among the top candidates are familiar names you might expect. But this season, we also have a breakout rookie superstar who changed the race as soon as he was called up to the majors.

Bleacher Report’s MLB Lead Writer Ian Casselberry and Pop Culture Lead Writer Gabe Zaldivar name the top candidates for the AL MVP and make their picks for the eventual winner.

Who is your choice for AL MVP? Do you disagree with our picks? Did we snub anyone from the list? Sound off in the comments section below.

Follow Gabe Zaldivar on Twitter @gabezal

Follow Ian Casselberry on Twitter @iancass

If you like what you see, click here for more from Bleacher Report Productions. 

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With the fantasy trade deadlines coming up this week and next (I have four red-letter dates this Friday), it’s time for owners to make one last pitch for baseball’s elite categorical contributors.

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal projections.

These 46 hitters, based on AccuScore projections (not mine), will register at least nine home runs from this point forward (Aug. 7-Sept. 30):

Part I
1. Adam Dunn, White Sox—14
2. Ryan Braun, Brewers—13
3. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers—13
4. Curtis Granderson, Yankees—12
5. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs—12
6. Josh Hamilton, Rangers—12
7. Albert Pujols, Angels—12
8. Mark Trumbo, Angels—12
9. Jose Bautista, Blue Jays—12
10. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays—12
11. Matt Kemp, Dodgers—11
12. Mark Teixeira, Yankees—11
13. Paul Konerko, White Sox—11
14. Josh Willingham, Twins—11
15. Corey Hart, Brewers—11
16. Prince Fielder, Tigers—11
17. Mike Trout, Angels—10
18. David Ortiz, Red Sox—10
19. Robinson Cano, Yankees—10
20. Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins—10
21. Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies—10
22. Jay Bruce, Reds—10
23. Adam LaRoche, Nationals—10

Part II
24. Trevor Plouffe, Twins—10
25. Nelson Cruz, Rangers—10
26. Adrian Beltre, Rangers—10
27. Yoenis Cespedes, Athletics—10
28. Adam Jones, Orioles—9
29. Kevin Youkilis, White Sox—9
30. Andrew McCutchen, Pirates—9
31. Mike Napoli, Rangers—9
32. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates—9
33. Dan Uggla, Braves—9
34. Mark Reynolds, Orioles—9
35. Alfonso Soriano, Cubs—9
36. Ryan Howard, Phillies—9
37. Josh Reddick, Athletics—9
38. Will Middlebrooks, Red Sox—9
39. Michael Morse, Nationals—9
40. Aramis Ramirez, Brewers—9
41. Matt Holliday, Cardinals—9
42. Carlos Quentin, Padres—9
43. Nick Swisher, Yankees—9
44. Joey Votto, Reds—9
45. Carlos Beltran, Cardinals—9
46. Brandon Moss, Athletics—9
 

Breakdown

• The prediction that immediately stands out is Anthony Rizzo (9 HR, 23 RBI, .301 BA) clubbing 12 homers from this point forward. To date, he’s averaging one homer for every 14.78 at-bats. Extrapolating that figure over another 49 games (sitting out six) with four daily at-bats (conservative estimate), that’s another 196 at-bats for the season…or 13.26 home runs. AccuScore’s right in that ballpark.
• I’ll reluctantly buy the “under” on Adam Dunn’s prediction of 14 homers from this point forward. For the season, Dunn (31 HR, 74 RBI, .205 BA) has a sterling trend of one homer for every 12.26 at-bats. But in the last 30 days, Dunn’s rate has regressed to one homer for every 15.2 at-bats.
• Noticeably absent from this list: David Wright, Evan Longoria, Chris Davis, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adam Lind, Alex Rios, Ryan Zimmerman, Startling Marte, Ian Kinsler, Jason Kubel, Ike Davis, Brian McCann, Carlos Pena, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Shin-Soo Choo, Justin Morneau, Hunter Pence, Dayan Viciedo, Jason Heyward and Alex Gordon.
• I’ve seen approximately 12 of Paul Goldschmidt‘s 16 homers on live TV this season, via MLB Extra Innings. And that somehow led me to believe Goldy was belting bombs at a more prodigious rate than one homer per 21 at-bats (seasonal)…or one homer for every 16.1 at-bats (minus a shaky April). If he maintains that May-August pace, he’ll clear double digits.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.

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Detroit Tigers third baseman Miguel Cabrera is in the middle of yet another spectacular offensive season.

Entering Tuesday’s action, Cabrera was hitting .328/.387/.578 with 23 home runs and an AL-best 79 RBI. According to FanGraphs, Cabrera ranks fourth in the American League with a .407 weighted on-base average (wOBA), a stat that measure’s a given hitter’s overall offensive value.

The scary part is that Cabrera is only getting better as the season goes along. In the month of July, he’s hitting .397/.449/.765 with seven homers and 17 RBI in 18 games. His most recent homer was the 300th of his career.

So yeah, Cabrera is a pretty good hitter.

But you knew that already, right?

Of course you did. It’s hard to ignore hitters of Cabrera’s caliber, and goodness knows he’s gotten his fair share of accolades. He’s made the All-Star team seven times, been a home run champion, an RBI champion, a batting champion and, of course, a World Series champion.

There are some things missing from Cabrera’s resume, though. It seems like a travesty that he has yet to win an MVP award, and you’d think he’d have more than one batting title, one home run title, etc.

There’s also no escaping the sense that, as beloved as Cabrera may be, he isn’t as beloved as he should be. As far as contemporary hitters go, people just don’t think of Cabrera the way they think of, say, Albert Pujols. This may have something to do with the fact that Cabrera just isn’t as likable as Pujols is, for a variety of different reasons (some of which involved a bottle). 

But make no mistake about it, Cabrera very much belongs in the same discussion as Pujols. Since Cabrera’s first full major league season in 2004, he and Pujols have been the two best right-handed hitters in baseball by a significant margin. To boot, their numbers are more similar than you probably think.

Observe:

Pujols clearly has an edge over Cabrera in the power department since the start of the 2004 season, but he doesn’t have a huge edge over Cabrera in key areas like RBI, batting average or weighted on-base average. We’re talking about two elite hitters who have been operating on more or less the same level for almost a decade at this point.

Granted, Pujols’ numbers in this demonstration are slightly skewed by the more human numbers he’s put up in the last couple seasons. He’s shown in the last couple months of the 2012 season that he is still one of the game’s best right-handed hitters, but the sheer dominance he enjoyed during his prime has probably been lost forever. 

Cabrera, on the other hand, is smack in the middle of the prime of his career. He enjoyed great success in the first five years of his career, but he’s been at his best since the start of the 2009 season.

The only other right-handed hitters who have operated on the same level as Cabrera in the last three-plus seasons are Pujols and Ryan Braun. But as this table shows, Cabrera has been better than both of them:

Here, the only area Cabrera doesn’t have a leg up is in home runs where Pujols has him beat by about 20. Everywhere else, Cabrera reigns supreme.

Translation: He’s the best right-handed hitter in baseball today. Hands down.

I’ll stop well short of saying that Cabrera is the best right-handed hitter of all time, something that can be easily said about Pujols. It’s possible that we’ll be able to argue Cabrera’s case as the greatest righty hitter of all time a few years down the road, but doing so now would be premature.

We can, however, say with confidence that Cabrera has already taken his place among the greatest righty hitters in the game’s modern history.

I ran a search on Baseball-Reference.com for right-handed hitters with at least 6,000 plate appearances since World War II (i.e. after 1946). You’d be surprised where Cabrera ranks in the key categories.

Cabrera has a career batting average of .318, and that ties him for second among righty hitters in the post-WWII era. His .952 OPS is good for fifth, ahead of greats like Jeff Bagwell and Alex Rodriguez. His 150 OPS+ ranks ninth, just barely behind Frank Robinson, Manny Ramirez and Hank Aaron.

The only question now is what kind of numbers Cabrera is going to end up with. He hasn’t yet turned 30, so it’s reasonable to think that he has four or five more years of elite production left in him. These will give him a shot at ending his career with a .320 career batting average, a feat accomplished by relatively few hitters throughout baseball history.

It’s also likely that Cabrera will end up in the 500 Home Run Club in a matter of years, and he could very well make a run at 600 home runs when all is said and done.

Curious about how many righty hitters have at least 500 home runs and a .320 batting average to their names?

Only one: Jimmie Foxx. At least until Pujols joins the 500 Home Run Club.

I’ll grant that it’s typically not a good idea to get too carried away with career projections, but an exception can be made in Cabrera’s case. He’s on a path to all-time greatness.

So go ahead and refer to Cabrera as one of the best right-handed hitters ever the next time you get a chance. You won’t be exaggerating.

If anybody argues, you can refer them to the numbers. They don’t lie.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Jose Valverde account for $73 million of the Tigers‘ payroll this year.

And nearly thirty games in, General Manager David Dombrowski might well be asking himself if the Tigers are seeing the type of returns expected from such a large investment.

It’s true that 28 games isn’t enough to gauge a ball club, but it’s enough of a sample size to start making some observations about the Tigers’ performance in 2012. Not considering inadequate contributions from the bottom of Detroit’s lineup and so-so bullpen, many Tigers fans are also asking themselves, “Should we have put all these eggs in the same basket?”

With the Tigers sitting in the middle of pack in the AL Central, now is a good time to take a look at the production numbers of Detroit’s highest-paid players:

Prince Fielder ($23 million)

In terms of power, Fielder is off to a slow start, with only 4 home runs. His batting average of .308 sits a bit higher than his career (.283), but his on-base and slugging percentages (.381 and .452, respectively) are slightly lower than his career averages of .389 and .537.

Fielder may be experiencing the adjustment period most hitters do when changing leagues, but it’s not enough for serious concern. Perhaps he should have more than 14 RBIs at this point in the season (.412 BA with runners in scoring position), but again, his numbers so far are not cause for panic.

Is his plate-production worth $23 million? That question remains to be answered.

Miguel Cabrera ($21 million)

While a BA of .284 might not seem too shabby, Dombrowski and Leyland are probably expecting more out of their star third basemen given his massive salary and given his career batting average of .316.

His OBP and SLG percentages are off a bit, but what’s really got Detroit worrying is Cabrera’s average with runners in scoring position (.296). Again, it might not seem all that bad, but it’s a far cry from Cabrera’s 2011 batting average of runners in scoring position of .388.

Another thing Tigers fans might be worried about is Cabrera’s ability to drive in runs with two out. Last year, Cabrera batted .382 with runners in scoring position and two out—this year: .250, including 0-3 last night in Seattle.

With a salary of $21 million, and an obvious downside on defense, Dombrowski might also be asking himself if Cabrera is living up to his paycheck.

Justin Verlander ($20 million)

Not much to complain about here. In six games started, Verlander has gone 2-1 and put up an ERA of 2.38 and a WHIP of 0.86. He’s averaging 8.3 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings.

Verlander has shown that his below-average Aprils are a thing of the past.

Jose Valverde ($9 million)

The next highest-paid player on the Tigers might be the biggest disappointment.

While it’s impossible to expect him to repeat his 2011 perfection (49 for 49 in save opportunites), Valverde has struggled to keep runners off base in 2012 and has already blown two saves. His ERA of 5.68 must come down if the Tigers are going to build on their success in 2011.

It’s early in the season, and Detroit’s big-money players have plenty of time to put up big-money numbers, but with a record of 14-14, there’s no question that Motown is a bit anxious for an adequate return on their investment.

Stats derived from Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com

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