Kuzul

Nearly $200 million and exactly three familiar faces later, the Los Angeles Dodgers have retained a roster worthy of the top of the National League power structure.

The first $48 million went into a three-year contract for lefty starter Rich Hill, who continued his late-career revival with a 1.83 ERA in six starts for the Dodgers in the home stretch of 2016. On Monday, Los Angeles committed another $144 million to relief ace Kenley Jansen and third baseman Justin Turner.

As Jim Bowden of ESPN and SiriusXM confirmed, Jansen’s deal is for five years and $80 million:

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports, the reliever’s pact also includes an opt-out after 2019.

Confirmation on Turner’s contract is stuck in the pipeline for the moment. But Joel Sherman of the New York Post teased it will be for four years and $64 million. Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com is hearing the same:

The Dodgers aren’t finished with their offseason checklist. They still need an everyday second baseman. After Josh Reddick’s departure, they could also use corner outfield depth.

For now, though, the Dodgers deserve a tip of the ol’ cap for focusing their offseason maneuvers on the right places and the right players.

Given that he’s a 36-year-old who only twice has gone over 100 innings, Hill comes with durability questions. But talent that’s produced a 2.00 ERA in 24 starts since 2015 made him the most desirable starter on the open market and a good fit for a Dodgers rotation that had depth but needed a proper partner in crime for Clayton Kershaw.

For a player like that, $16 million per year isn’t too much. It certainly sounds better than $16 million per year for a relief pitcher, anyway.

Of course, it’s not the Dodgers’ fault they had to back up a truck filled with that much money for Jansen. Mark Melancon set the market for elite relief pitching when the San Francisco Giants signed him for $62 million over four years. Aroldis Chapman further drove the point home when he accepted five years and $86 million from the New York Yankees.

Simply going with the flow of supply and demand is out of character for a Dodgers front office that favors being analytical and, above all, rational. But, you know what they say about that.

“If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times.

It’s also not like the Dodgers are spending big on a bad reliever. Jansen has dominated since the start of his major league career back in 2010. He’s taken it to a whole ‘nother level since sharpening his control in 2013, compiling a 2.19 ERA and 7.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last 268 appearances.

Through the lens of FanGraphs WAR, here are the top two relievers in baseball since 2013:

1. Aroldis Chapman: 9.7
2. Kenley Jansen: 9.4

See that difference? That doesn’t look like a $6 million difference to me.

The concern is that Jansen, now 29, will lose zip as he ages. But that’s a smaller concern with him than it is with other relievers. He averaged 93.6 mph on his cutter in 2016 but has been successful even with an average as low as 91.9 mph in 2012.

For Jansen, it’s not about velocity. It’s about movement. Like so:

That movement should ensure Jansen ages just fine. You know, sort of like another reliever who had a world-class cutter even after he was past his peak velocity.

It doesn’t take as many words to justify Turner’s contract. Although his $64 million is nearly $50 million less than the $110 million Yoenis Cespedes got from the New York Mets, it’s going toward arguably the best free agent the market had to offer.

That was Corinne Landrey‘s argument at MLB.com. And mine right here, for that matter. Over the last three seasons, Turner has posted an .856 OPS with 50 home runs while also rating as a strong defender at the hot corner.

Cue Dave Cameron‘s summary at FanGraphs:

Turner is not that much worse of a hitter than Edwin Encarnacion, only he can also play the field. The power isn’t the same, and teams continue to pay less for singles and doubles than home runs, but Turner gets to a similar overall value, and when you toss in the ability to play third base, 4/$64M in this market seems like a steal.

Although he’s already 32 years old, what sets Turner apart from other veteran free agents is how well-preserved he is. He didn’t become an everyday player until the Dodgers picked him up in 2014, which can only help him age gracefully.

With Hill, Jansen and Turner returning to the fold, the 2017 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2016 Dodgers. At worst, that could mean a repeat of a campaign that brought L.A. 91 wins and a fourth straight NL West title.

It’s likelier that even better things are in store.

The Dodgers can expect a lot more from not only Hill but Kershaw as well after a back injury limited him to 21 starts in 2016. They’ll also have healthy versions of Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir and Alex Wood. The young arms of Julio Urias and Jose De Leon contain all sorts of upside.

The Dodgers thus figure to have more than enough pitching to back up an offense anchored by capable veterans (Turner, Adrian Gonzalez and Yasmani Grandal) and explosive young guns (Corey Seager and Joc Pederson).

And since they’ve only used money to flesh out their roster to this point, the Dodgers can now use their farm system to solve their second base conundrum. Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler are among the available trade options, per Rosenthal. The former fits the Dodgers like a glove.

Even as is, the signings of Hill, Jansen and Turner ensure the Dodgers have enough firepower to remain among the NL’s elite clubs in 2017. The reigning champion Chicago Cubs loom as the team to beat, but the Dodgers are right there with the Giants and Washington Nationals among the clubs that could bring them down.

Which is to say, the $192 million they’ve spent to bring back their guys is going toward a good cause.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Justin Turner is coming off three solid seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and one National League West rival is reportedly interested in signing him when free agency opens. 

Continue for updates. 

Giants Reportedly Express Preliminary Interest in Turner

Tuesday, Nov. 8

According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, the San Francisco Giants are “open-minded” in their pursuit of Turner. 

The Giants opted for a platoon at third base throughout the 2016 season, but the stats weren’t particularly encouraging. 

San Francisco third basemen ranked 18th in Major League Baseball with a cumulative batting average of .266. In that same vein, their .320 on-base percentage graded out 22nd overall among all teams. Hot corner patrolmen for the Giants also combined to hit 12 home runs and tally 61 RBI. 

Comparatively, Turner exceeded that production rather easily. 

Over the course of 151 games, Turner posted a slash line of .275/.339/.493 with a career-best 27 home runs and 90 RBI. Those numbers came on the heels of a .340 batting average in 2014 and a .294 average with a .370 on-base percentage a year ago. 

Although his defensive wins above replacement have hovered at or just north of 0.6 over the last three seasons, per Baseball-Reference.com, Turner could bring an experienced bat to an already potent Giants lineup that needs some reinforcements to compete for an NL West title. 

Stats via ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.

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Even with the MLB playoffs ongoing, many MLB fans are beginning to look ahead to the offseason and speculate where the biggest stars might land.

Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen and Edwin Encarnacion are three of the most talented players available. They’re all still playing in the postseason, but that hasn’t stopped a flurry of rumors regarding their respective futures.

Below are updates on Turner, Jansen and Encarnacion‘s impending free agency.

Justin Turner

Turner had the best regular season of his career in 2016. Even at 31 years old, he’s poised to receive a hefty contract when he enters free agency in the offseason.

Rather than being excited about his future payday, Turner said in September he’ll be happier when it’s over, according to the Orange County Register‘s Bill Plunkett:

I guess everyone’s cut from a different cloth. I personally don’t look forward to it. Obviously, I’ll be excited when it’s over with. But that whole process is the part of baseball I could do without. The process of playing the game, the preparation of getting ready for the games—that’s what I love about it. The process of the off-the-field stuff is not very fun.

In the same interview, Turner confirmed he had had preliminary contract talks with the Dodgers but didn’t make any long-term commitment to Los Angeles: “There’s been some dialogue back and forth, but it didn’t go anywhere. I was open to it to see what they had to say. I let my agent do most of it. I’m not trying to worry too much about it.”

On Sunday, Jon Heyman of Today’s Knuckleball reported the signs point to Turner hitting the open market.

For the right price, re-signing Turner makes sense for the Dodgers. He tied for the team lead in home runs (27) and runs batted in (90). According to FanGraphs, he also finished sixth among qualified third basemen in defensive runs saved (seven) and first in ultimate zone rating per 150 games (17.2).

Los Angeles will have to think long and hard about for how much and how long it’s willing to commit to Turner, though. His performance shouldn’t drastically decline in 2017, but he’s unlikely to improve significantly over the next few years.

The Dodgers weren’t willing to match the Arizona Diamondbacks’ contract for Zack Greinke, and it looks like they dodged a major bullet. Although bidding for Turner won’t reach Greinke-like levels, it’s easy to see Los Angeles opting against re-signing him if he’s receiving significant offers elsewhere.

In terms of his next possible destination, this could be a chance for the Atlanta Braves to make a statement, similar to when the perennially mediocre Washington Nationals inked a 31-year-old Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million deal.

The Braves are moving into SunTrust Park next year, so it’s important for the team to show fans that it’s taking steps in the right direction. Another 60-win season will quickly blunt the excitement of the new ballpark.

Signing Turner wouldn’t make the Braves a contender overnight, but he’d be a massive upgrade at third over Adonis Garcia. His arrival would also be a sign from ownership that it’s willing to spend what’s necessary to turn Atlanta around.

Prediction: Turner signs with Braves.

Kenley Jansen

Ever since Guggenheim Baseball Management took ownership of the Dodgers from Frank McCourt in 2012, the group has spared no expense to bring a World Series to Los Angeles.

Here’s a look at where the team’s total payroll ranked each year from 2013 to 2016, per Spotrac:

According to Heyman, though, the Dodgers may be looking to trim their spending slightly in the years to come, which could mean allowing free agents such as Turner, Jansen, Josh Reddick and Rich Hill to walk in free agency:

Anyway, it’s reasonable to think that the Dodgers, with their emphasis on youth, their collection of top prospects and their consideration to be below the threshold in the future, could be outbid for one or more of their top free agents. One rival official who has some familiarity with their inner workings predicted they could wind up re-signing none of them, though in a later conversation seemed to amend that, saying, ‘I don’t know who’s going to close if they don’t keep Kenley.’

Between the regular season he had and postseason he’s having, failing to re-sign Jansen would be a mistake for the Dodgers.

Beyond his 47 saves, Jansen averaged 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings and posted a 1.83 earned-run average. His 1.44 FIP was second-lowest among qualified relievers behind Aroldis Chapman, per FanGraphs.

The 29-year-old melted down in Game 3 of the National League Division Series, which was a non-save situation. In his 15.2 innings outside that appearance, he has allowed zero runs in the 2016 playoffs.

Of course, the importance of an elite closer can be overstated at times. It’s also fair to question how much longer Jansen can continue pitching like he has this season. Craig Kimbrel’s last few seasons are evidence as to how quickly things can take a turn for the worse for a top-end closer.

With that said, the Dodgers will be a World Series contender again in 2017, even if they plan on relying on some of their talented prospects. As such, Los Angeles will need to have somebody upon whom it can rely in the ninth inning.

Failing to re-sign Jansen would force the Dodgers to find a replacement who in all likelihood would be a major downgrade.

Unless another team comes in with a crazy offer for the 2016 All-Star, Los Angeles should do everything it can to ensure he remains with the team for the long term.

Prediction: Jansen re-signs with Dodgers.

Edwin Encarnacion

This will be an interesting offseason for the Toronto Blue Jays. Both Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are free agents. The former is 33 and the latter is 35.

In June, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported Toronto doesn’t plan on re-signing either player to long-term deals in the offseason.

If the past is any indication, both sluggers will be playing elsewhere in 2017.

During his time with the Cleveland Indians, Blue Jays team president Mark Shapiro routinely traded or declined to re-sign the team’s priciest veterans. According to TSN’s Rick Westhead, Shapiro was upset then-general manager Alex Anthopoulos offloaded so many top prospects in trades to acquire David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.

While Shapiro is unlikely to want a complete rebuild in Toronto, he may instruct general manager Ross Atkins—another Indians transplant—against spending extravagantly on two hitters in their mid-30s.

Should Encarnacion hit the open market, he may not have to change divisions. The Boston Globe‘s Nick Cafardo reported on Oct. 8 the Boston Red Sox could make a push to sign the first baseman/designated hitter.

On Saturday, Cafardo pictured a future in which Boston used Encarnacion to supplement Hanley Ramirez:

When [president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski] said at his postmortem press conference last week that [Ramirez] could play both first base and DH, that’s probably because [Encarnacion] can do the same. You could have this pair alternate between DH and first base. Encarnacion likes to play the field. Like Ramirez, he’s a below-average first baseman but serviceable. The important thing is both are powerful righthanded bats, especially at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox couldn’t find a better replacement—at least in the short term—for the retiring David Ortiz. Over the last five years, Encarnacion has averaged a little over 38 home runs and 110 RBI a season. According to Baseball-Reference.com, he’s also a .286 hitter with 14 homers and 41 RBI in 50 games at Fenway Park.

Dave Dombrowski has rarely shied away from making major moves to help his teams in the present, which is how he turned the Florida Marlins and Detroit Tigers into World Series contenders. Last offseason, he signed off on committing $217 million to David Price.

Should the Blue Jays turn down the chance to bring Encarnacion back, the Red Sox will likely be first in line to sign him.

Prediction: Encarnacion signs with Red Sox.

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It’s not easy to take Justin Turner seriously as a star player. He used to be an anonymous New York Mets utility guy. He’s now a Los Angeles Dodger not named Clayton Kershaw, Adrian Gonzalez or Corey Seager. I won’t say he doesn’t have the “good face,” but it’s confirmed he looks like a Muppet.

But I will propose this: Turner is not only a really good player, but an elite one when he has his legs under him.

It feels necessary to bring this up in part because of how insanely hot the 31-year-old third baseman has been. He was sporting a .642 OPS as recently as June 3. The next day, a two-hit game catapulted him to the following numbers over his last 48 games: a .321/.370/.642 slash line with 15 home runs.

It also feels necessary because of the recent buzz in the air about the Dodgers possibly making a seismic shift at the hot corner. Although it was really only a suggestion, Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com raised some eyebrows when he linked the Dodgers to Tampa Bay Rays star Evan Longoria last month.

Obviously, nothing materialized. Longoria is still safe and sound in Tampa Bay, and Turner is still wearing Dodger blue.

But since that “rumor” is nothing if not a good conversation starter, let’s have this one: Would the Dodgers actually have upgraded if they’d gone from Turner to Longoria?

By FanGraphs‘ reckoning, Longoria has only been worth 0.5 more wins above replacement than Turner in 2016. That’s partially owed to a small difference in their offensive performances. Per weighted runs created plus, a metric that rates hitting production on a scale where 100 is league average, Longoria (128) has been only three percentage points better than Turner (125).

Look beyond just 2016, however, and it’s no contest. Here’s how wRC+ ranks the top offensive third basemen in the league over the last three seasons:

1. Josh Donaldson: 146
2. Justin Turner: 140

Ranking just behind Donaldson, who is at least 20 different shades of stupendous, in anything is a heck of an accomplishment. The heck of it is that Turner’s 2014-2016 offensive output might rank ahead of Donaldson’s had it not been for the injury bug.

It seemed like a fluke when Turner broke through with a .340 average and .897 OPS in 109 games in 2014 after the Dodgers picked him up off the scrapheap that winter. However, he hit .323 with a .950 OPS in his first 87 games in 2015, putting any “fluke” reasoning on thin ice.

But then he developed an infection in his leg last July that sidelined him into mid-August. He wasn’t the same after he returned, hitting just .237 with a .691 OPS. He would later have microfracture knee surgery in the fall. In June, Doug Padilla of ESPN.com observed that surgery “looks to have taken a toll on him” as he struggled out of the gate.

But as his red-hot hitting suggests, Turner has since snapped out of it.

“I’m definitely feeling comfortable again,” Turner told Padilla in July. “I felt comfortable all year. I don’t know what was going on those first two months. But yeah, I feel good, I feel comfortable, and I’m getting better results.”

It’s fair to say the Dodgers have experienced two different versions of Turner: the unhealthy one and the healthy one. Focus on what the healthy one has done in 2014, 2015 and 2016, and the numbers are staggering:

Anybody who can put up a wRC+ in the high 150s or high 160s isn’t just a really good hitter. That’s territory that only Mike Trout has consistently occupied over the last three years, and that only a handful of heavy hitters—Trout, Donaldson, David Ortiz, Jose Altuve, Daniel Murphy and Matt Carpenter—are occupying in 2016.

We had to jump through some hoops to put Turner in this kind of company, but the reality that it can be done speaks volumes about how far he’s come as a Dodger.

Turner was really only a glove-for-hire when the Dodgers picked him up on a minor league contract in 2014. He had played all over the infield in three seasons with the Mets but was just a .265/.326/.370 hitter with a 97 wRC+. In other words, below average.

But Turner has always had a good approach. He’s maintained a well-below-average strikeout rate while mostly keeping his walk rate in the realm of average. If a hitter can do that, all he needs to become complete is an ability to barrel the ball.

This is where Marlon Byrd emerges as a key figure in the Turner legend.

Turner crossed paths with Byrd when the two were with the Mets in 2013, the first season of Byrd’s late-career transformation into a power threat. One likely reason for that isn’t fun to think about, but it’s one of the other reasons that Turner latched on to.

“The old saying is ‘stay back stay back stay back.’ Well, [Byrd] was talking about doing the opposite,” Turner told Eno Sarris of FanGraphs last year. “Not backing the ball up, going out and getting it. Being aggressive and get out there and get on your front side, get off your back side.”

This advice opened the door for Turner to stop being content with making contact and instead prioritize making good contact. The new him showed signs of life in 2013, as he put more balls in the air and made more hard contact.

When he’s been on two good legs as a Dodger, he’s mostly continued to up the ante:

Going down this path could have wrecked Turner’s approach. Instead, it’s been like a rock. He’s still tough to strike out and is still taking his walks. Mix that with an increasing amount of solid contact, and it’s no surprise that health has been the only thing barring him from the hitting elite.

Because Turner is on the wrong side of 30, there should be some doubt about how much longer he can keep this up. It’s hard to argue with Tim Dierkes‘ rankings for this winter’s top free agents at MLB Trade Rumors, in which Turner barely missed out on the top 10.

But right now, that’s neither here nor there for the Dodgers. Their hunt for an elusive World Series title got off to a rocky start, but their rebound to the tune of a 59-48 record has them breathing down the San Francisco Giants‘ necks in the National League West. Turner has had a big hand in this, as his hot hitting is in the middle of a team-wide offensive surge the last two months.

That’s what stars can do.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked and are current through August 2.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The New York Mets have been pretty active in free agency this winter. Despite that Matt Harvey will miss the 2014 MLB season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Sandy Alderson and the front office are moving ahead with their plan of infusing this roster with productive players to be competitive.

It’s been a painstaking process watching Alderson maneuver his way through the offseason since he joined the organization. Heading into this winter, the biggest free-agent signing he made was bringing in Frank Francisco on a two-year, $12 million deal.

Alderson has changed his tune, keeping his promise that money coming off the books from bad contracts would be reinvested in the major league roster. Not all of the money from the Johan Santana and Jason Bay savings has been spent yet, but New York is showing its willingness to once again hand out multi-year contracts.

Let’s take a look at New York’s report card with the moves it has made so far this offseason.

Statistics and advanced metrics from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, respectively. Contract information from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. All transactions sourced from Mets.com unless otherwise noted.

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Last year, Ike Davis played in 36 games before he suffered a freak ankle injury from a collision with David Wright.

That cost him the rest of the season.

Coming into this season, Davis was expected to put up high numbers. Thus far in 2012, he has done anything but that. 

Hitting just .161 in 137 at-bats, Davis is looking discouraged. A slow start is understandable, but it’s late May already and Davis has shown very little, if any, signs of improvement.

The Mets have looked impressive through the first eight weeks of the season. Only three and a half games behind the first place Atlanta Braves, the Mets seem to be a threat heading into the summer months.

With the severe struggles of Davis, however, the question seems to be whether or not a trip to the minors would be beneficial. Personally, I believe a trip down would be smart move for both Davis and the team as a whole. 

At this point, Davis needs fresh  offensive input from a new voice. Down on the Buffalo Bisons, he can go back to basics and really focus on tweaking his swing as well as clearing his head of what has been an exhausting first few months to the season. 

Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson and Manager Terry Collins are not opposed to the idea, and as Davis’ woes continue, a trip to the minor leagues seems more and more realistic.

Collins spoke in the recent days about the team considering this possibility. However, Collins also went on to say that “nothing is etched in stone,” and that the team will weigh its options.

If the team does decide to move Davis down, the pieces the Mets have in place to fill his spot should be adequate. Daniel Murphy would most likely shift over to first, and Justin Turner would assume second base duties.

A big part of the Mets is Ike Davis.

With his struggles, the Mets have have had a shortened lineup, and Terry Collins has been forced to juggle the order.

The bottom line is that the Mets need Davis to produce out of the middle of the lineup. They simply cannot afford to keep him as a regular with the way he has played thus far.

It will not be long until a decision is made by the organization on the status of Davis. 

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With less than a month until New York Mets pitcher and catchers report to spring training in Port St. Lucie, Florida, many predictions about this 2012 squad have already been published. 

Whether these estimations have the Mets written off in a deep National League East, or as a sleeper candidate to finish above .500, you never know until game 162 is in the books.

It’s easy to be optimistic about this team as a life-long fan, but lets see what Mets “experts” have to say about this team as the 2012 preseason is only weeks away.

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Most non-Mets fans take a look at the Mets starting lineup and aside from Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran you can hear a resounding “Who?”.  I say to those baseball fans: Take a closer look. There is a player in that lineup that can help David Wright resemble the player he once was. He is the reigning NL rookie of the month, Justin Turner. 

Turner has been a spark plug for the Mets offense and has contributed to their recent surge in the National League despite missing two of their biggest bats, David Wright and Ike Davis. The Mets have won 8-of-12 and although players like Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada and Angel Pagan have been terrific, it is Turner that has really stepped up. Turner has driven in 23 runs in just under a month and has helped cushion the loss of Wright and Davis.

Although Turner’s offensive production has been a godsend, his recent success can serve as a wake-up call to Mets third baseman David Wright. In no way am I suggesting that Turner should take Wright’s job once David is healthy. What I am suggesting is that Wright break down Turner’s success and learn from it. Some of you may be thinking: Are you insane? Why should David Wright break down a 26-year-old rookie’s one month of success? I’ll tell you why.

Turner has had 12 hits to left, 12 to center, and 15 to right this season, clearly using all sides of the field to drive in runs. Remind you of anyone? If you guessed pre-pull happy David Wright, then we’re both on the same page. From 2006 through 2009 Wright had 47, 53, 39, and 46 hits to the opposite field. Last season saw that total drop to a career low 26. Mets fans have witnessed Wright go from one of the best two strike hitters who uses the whole field to a dead pull hitter that set a career high for strikeouts last season.

I disagree with Fred Wilpon that David Wright is not a superstar. I do agree that he has not played like one in a very long time. The key to Wright’s return to prominence is not to hit more home runs and conquer the Great Wall of Flushing in right field. His return to success will come when he realizes that he has to go back to being the player who had the makings of a superstar.

The success of a 26-year-old rookie may be just what this franchise needed.

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Normally, a team will have two or three players competing for a position in Spring Training. The Mets, who have had a hole at second base for the past few years, will have as many as six different players competing for the second base job. Each player has his strengths and weaknesses and will have a chance to win the job.

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