Ever feel like you’re being lied to? In my first couple weeks of mock drafts, I’ve noticed some trends developing and some widely accepted beliefs that don’t entirely hold true. Some positions aren’t as weak as they appear, some are weaker. And some guys just seem to end up on my team regardless of which draft position I start out with. These are the things that might be useful notes to make as you prepare your draft-day cheat sheet.
Tag: Josh Johnson
2011 Florida Marlins Preview: Sizing Up the Team As Spring Approaches
This is it, the Florida Marlins final season. After 2011, there will be no more baseball in Sun Life Stadium, no Major League baseball in Miami Gardens, no more empty stadiums or the perception of the team being known as second class citizens on welfare.
In 2011, the Florida Marlins have one last chance to win a championship before their big transformation.
Fantasy Baseball Top 30 Starting Pitchers For 2011
There has been some significant movement in our starting pitcher rankings since we originally checked in on them.
The most glaring change was due to Zack Greinke’s trade to the Brewers, but that’s certainly not all. Let’s take a look at how things currently look:
- Roy Halladay – Philadelphia Phillies
- Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners
- Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants
- Jon Lester – Boston Red Sox
- Adam Wainwright – St. Louis Cardinals
- CC Sabathia – New York Yankees
- Cliff Lee – Philadelphia Phillies
- Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers
- Zack Greinke – Milwaukee Brewers
- Jered Weaver – Los Angeles Angels
- Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
- Ubaldo Jimenez – Colorado Rockies
- Josh Johnson – Florida Marlins
- Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins
- Chris Carpenter – St. Louis Cardinals
- Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers
- Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies
- Clay Buchholz – Boston Red Sox
- Mat Latos – San Diego Padres
- Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves
- Dan Haren – Los Angeles Angels
- Roy Oswalt – Philadelphia Phillies
- Colby Lewis – Texas Rangers
- David Price – Tampa Bay Rays
- Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins
- Brett Anderson – Oakland Athletics
- Matt Cain – San Francisco Giants
- Max Scherzer – Detroit Tigers
- Matt Garza – Tampa Bay Rays
- Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox
Thoughts:
- I know seeing Colby Lewis over David Price seems odd, but I took a detailed look into why I prefer him earlier this week. Check it out by clicking here.
- Some people are going to be higher than I am on Matt Cain. I fear a regression in his BABIP (.260) and control (2.46 BB/9 compared to a 3.37 career BB/9), meaning a rather sizable jump in his WHIP (1.08) could be in store for him. Yes, he has improved his control for three straight years, but sooner or later, the trend is going to stop. It’s not to say that he’s a bad option, I just prefer the other options more. I’ll be taking a look at my projection for Cain in the near future.
- Since the last time we looked at the rankings Zack Greinke has been dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers, significantly helping his value. You have to think that he’ll have a higher win upside, while also potentially seeing a bump in strikeouts and a decrease in ERA and WHIP thanks to leaving the DH behind (and facing generally easier lineups). The former Cy Young Award winner was a Top 20 option prior to the deal but now cracks the Top 10. For more on the deal, click here.
- Adam Wainwright or CC Sabathia? It’s virtually a coin flip and, despite pitching for the Yankees, Sabathia does call the harder division home. When pitchers are as close as they are, I’d generally side with the NL option.
- Josh Beckett’s inclusion may be a bit of a surprise, given how poorly he pitched in 2010. However, he struggled with luck (.349 BABIP) and we all know how good he has the potential to be. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him perform like a Top 15 pitcher at year’s end, would it? (For more on his 2010 struggles, click here)
- I know some people want to consider Felix Hernandez the top starting pitcher in the league, but I just can’t do it. Halladay has an edge in both wins and WHIP, while the two will likely be close in the ERA department. While Hernandez may strike out a few more, is it enough to overcome Halladay’s other advantages? I don’t think so. (For a more detailed comparison, click here)
- I know people are worried about Latos’ workload in 2010, but any pitcher carries a bit of a risk with him. No one knows for sure how his body will respond, as it’s the same question we’ve had with Tim Lincecum since he entered the league (and how has that turned out?). With his strikeout rate (9.21 K/9 in ’10 vs. 10.55 over his minor league career), control (2.44 B/9 in ’10 vs. 2.30 over his minor league career) and the benefit of pitching in Petco Park, you have to like his potential to excel once again.
- Josh Johnson certainly is one of the best starting pitcher options in the league, but he falls just short of the Top 12 for me. Don’t overlook the fact that he benefited from a 79.2% strand rate and increased his strikeout rate be nearly one K per nine innings (8.22 vs. 9.11). I know he’s certainly improved since his minor league days, but his K/9 coming up was just 7.41. There’s a good chance he regresses there, which certainly will hurt his potential value. I wouldn’t suggest a return to his minor league numbers, but potentially back to the low-to-mid 8.0 range.
What are your thoughts on the rankings? Whose too high? Whose too low?
**** Make sure to pre-order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****
Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:
- Top 15 Catchers
- Top 15 First Basemen
- Top 15 Third Basemen
- Top 15 Shortstops
- Top 30 Outfielders
- Top 20 Starting Pitchers
- Top 15 Closers
- 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown
THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM
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Ace Josh Johnson Shut Down for the Season by Florida Marlins
The Florida Marlins started the season with two potential aces on their pitching staff—Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson.
Unfortunately, they will end the season with no aces on their roster.
The Marlins shut down Nolasco in August with a knee injury, and now they have shut down their No. 1 starter in Johnson with a back injury.
According to Joe Capozzi of The Palm Beach Post, via Twitter, the Marlins have ended Johnson’s season prematurely because of a lingering back injury.
Johnson was scratched from his start last Friday, and his goal was to pitch on Wednesday, but he couldn’t throw a bullpen session over the weekend, and any hopes of him returning this season went down the tubes.
Johnson finishes the season with an 11-6 record, a 2.30 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and 9.1 K’s/9 in 183.1 IP. His 2.30 ERA currently leads the National League.
This is really disappointing for Johnson, as I think this injury puts him out of the Cy Young Award race. I thought he would finish second in the voting at the beginning of the season to Roy Halladay, and Johnson certainly lived up to expectations.
From his May 2nd start to his July 27th start, Johnson was the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion. He was 8-2 over those 16 starts and had a ridiculous 1.31 ERA. If the Marlins offense gave him any support during those starts, he could have been 16-0 during that stretch.
Johnson should make a full recovery by the start of next season and should once again be a Cy Young favorite.
You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Florida Marlins Ace Josh Johnson Shut Down for the Season
The National League may have just lost a Cy Young candidate, but may also have gained an ERA title winner.
The Florida Marlins announced this afternoon that staff ace Josh Johnson would be shut down for the season after complaining of problems with his back and shoulder for much of the second half of the season.
Officially, Johnson has a mid-back strain and right shoulder inflammation. His back flared up on him during his August 7th start against the St. Louis Cardinals, and recently had to stop throwing during an off-day side-session because of discomfort in his back.
Thus draws to a close the most impressive season yet for the Marlins’ righty, who went 11-6 with a 2.30 ERA in 28 starts, striking out 186 batters in 183 2/3 innings.
Johnson was thought to be a long shot for the NL Cy Young Award this season, as he jockeyed for the NL ERA and strikeouts leads throughout the year with Adam Wainwright, Roy Halladay, and Ubaldo Jimenez. At this point in the year, the likelihood of his winning the award with only 11 wins, despite leading the NL in ERA, is remote at best, and almost entirely unlikely.
Nevertheless, Johnson’s early exit may mean that he will win his first ERA crown; with 183.2 innings pitched, he more than qualifies (Jake Peavy only had 166.1 innings when he won his first ERA crown in 2004), and he is currently leading Wainwright by a margin of .08 (2.30 vs. 2.38).
Neither Wainwright nor Halladay, Tim Hudson, or Matt Latos has pitched particularly well in the last couple of weeks, indicating that Johnson’s lead might be safe even despite his departure.
An ERA crown would be a nice consolation prize for Johnson, who endured nine games in which he allowed two or fewer earned runs without coming away with a victory for the Marlins because of run support.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
2010 Fantasy Baseball: Kinsler, Tulo, Rasmus Hot; Jeter, Johnson, Kershaw Not
Let’s take a look at some of the bigger stories that developed yesterday:
Three Hot
Texas Rangers 2B Ian Kinsler
There was a lot to like from the Rangers last night, from their offensive explosion to Derek Holland (5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K, W), who has a chance to emerge in the Rangers rotation not only for the final few weeks of 2010, but for 2011 as well.
One of the most notable performances, however, was from Kinsler. He went 2-5 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R, and 1 SB, doing a little bit of everything while hitting out of the leadoff spot in Elvis Andrus’ absence. It was only his third game batting first in 2010, and he showed us just how dynamic of a player he can be when healthy. Could he stick in the leadoff spot even when Andrus returns to the lineup? It’s doubtful, but you never really know. Still, seeing this type of performance gives us hope that he can be the type of player down the stretch that we have been waiting for all year long.
Colorado Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki
Wasn’t he supposed to be having problems with his power thanks to the wrist injury? He hit another two home runs last night, giving him five home runs in his last six games. In his last seven, he has 13 RBI. We all know that he is one of the elite players in the game and has the potential to keep this hot stretch going for the final few weeks of the season. Taking him early in your draft doesn’t look quite as bad now, does it?
St. Louis Cardinals OF Colby Rasmus
Since the drama unfolded between Rasmus and Tony La Russa, Rasmus has suddenly found himself in the lineup everyday. Coincidence? Who knows, but fantasy owners have to hope that he takes advantage of the opportunity that is now being awarded him. He either does his thing and proves that he belongs to be a mainstay in the middle of the Cardinals lineup, or he struggles. Over the last four games he’s gone 5-13 with 1 RBI and 2 R. Time will tell if he can really turn it up, but fantasy owners have to relish this time and keep him active in all five-outfielder formats.
Three Not
New York Yankees SS Derek Jeter
After going 0-4 yesterday, Jeter’s average fell to .262. In fact, he hasn’t had a multi-hit game since August 21. In that time he’s gone 8-61 (.131) with 1 HR and 3 RBI. Yes, he’s still been able to score a few runs, but he clearly isn’t performing up to the standards fantasy owners have become accustomed to. The struggles have stretched even further then that, however. Since June 1 he’s gone 84-355, a .237 average. It’s tough to move him to your bench, because you have to think that he’s going to wake up sooner or later.
Florida Marlins SP Josh Johnson
Josh Johnson was scratched from his scheduled start on Friday, and now the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer is reporting that, “The Marlins have announced that Josh Johnson has right shoulder inflammation and a mid-back strain, but that there is no structural damage.” (Click here for the full post).
While that would seem like good news, as Spencer points out, there is currently no word on when, or if, Johnson could take the mound again. Considering where the Marlins are, there is a very real possibility that they shut him down for the season. That certainly is not what fantasy owners want to hear, but start planning, just in case.
L.A. Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw
According to mlb.com (click here for the article), the Los Angeles Dodgers will push Clayton Kershaw’s next start back to Tuesday in an effort to protect his arm. Instead of pitching against the Astros on Saturday (John Ely will take this start), he will take on the Giants in San Francisco. As of now, they are saying that there will be no other adjustments, but having thrown 183.1 innings and with the Dodgers more or less out of contention, we will need to watch this closely. He’s a must start option, regardless, so simply adjust your roster plans for now.
What are your thoughts?
Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Ten Reasons Why The Future Looks Bright for the Marlins
The Marlins, a young franchise, with two World Series titles on their resume, have to be excited for the future. Over the years they have been the subject of ridicule for their attendance numbers and low payroll. The fan base has witnessed not one, but two World Series teams get dismantled for financial reasons.
However, now more than ever, the enthusiasm behind this team is growing and here are the ten reasons why:
St. Louis Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright Takes Lead in NL Cy Young Horserace
In the pre-season it was Roy Halladay. For the first three months of the year it was Ubaldo Jimenez. Josh Johnson took over for a little while, but as of now there can be no doubt.
The St. Louis Cardinals‘ Adam Wainwright is now your front-runner for the National League Cy Young Award.
Remember just under two months ago, when Jimenez won his 14th start of the season to run his record to 13-1 with a 1.15 ERA?
We were talking about Bob Gibson’s 1.12 ERA and Denny McLain’s 31 wins and it looked like Ubaldo might be able to match both of those marks.
Nine starts later, Ubaldo has gone 4-2 with a 5.17 ERA in 54.0 innings pitched and his Cy Young hopes are all but over.
Johnson got off to a rough start to the season and had a 4.09 ERA after four starts, but he threw it into cruise control in May and his ERA has been under 2.00 since June 10th.
Johnson went a spectacular 13 starts without allowing more than two earned runs and allowing two runs only once.
On July 17th he was 10-3 with a 1.62 ERA and looked to be in the driver’s seat for the Cy Young.
Unfortunately for Johnson, he hasn’t won a game in four starts, and wins still count in the Cy Young race, as much as they probably shouldn’t. Not to mention the fact that his ERA has “ballooned” (I use the word loosely) to 1.97.
Get this: he has allowed more earned runs in his last three starts (10) than he had in his previous 13 starts combined.
Halladay got off to a great start to the season, and is still having a great season. Despite a hard-luck season which has been devoid of run-support, Halladay has a respectable 14-8 record and a league-leading 168 strikeouts.
He also leads the league with eight complete games, three shutouts, 185 innings pitched and 735 batters faced.
More importantly, Halladay has given up only 22 walks this season and leads the NL in both walks allowed per nine innings (1.1) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (an astonishing 7.64).
Nevertheless, Halladay’s 2.34 ERA, while great, isn’t elite by “Year of the Pitcher” standards, and his 8.2 hits allowed per nine innings and 14 home runs allowed overall are both kind of mundane.
At this point, neither Ubaldo, Johnson, nor Halladay is putting it all together the way Wainwright is:
– On June 17th Ubaldo was 13-1 while Wainwright was 9-4; both pitchers now have 17 wins;
– On June 24th, Johnson had a 1.80 ERA and Wainwright had a 2.47 ERA; Johnson now leads 1.97 to 1.99;
– While Halladay leads the NL in strikeouts, Wainwright is neck-and-neck with Halladay in K/9IP (8.2 vs. 8.1) and despite Halladay’s paucity of bases on balls Wainwright actually has a far better WHIP (1.032 vs. 0.970) which leads the league.
And finally, in a “What have you done for me lately?” league, Wainwright is the hottest pitcher in the NL right now, having gone 7-1 with a 1.14 ERA in his last nine starts.
Compare that to Jimenez (above), Johnson (3-2, 2.14) and Halladay (6-2, 2.19), and a picture of a pitcher pitching above an incredible class emerges.
Now, Wainwright is not without marks against him.
Chiefly, the complaint against Wainwright is that he is a hometown hero.
This is true: he has gone a remarkable 11-0 with a 1.22 ERA in St. Louis this season, while only going 6-6 with a 2.76 ERA away from home.
There are two responses to this, however.
First, take the numbers as they are: those home numbers are not just “better at home”; they are unbelievable. Plus, it isn’t as though a 2.76 ERA on the road is bad.
And second, Wainwright isn’t the only hometown hero in this group. Compare:
Wainwright: home (11-0, 1.22) road (6-6, 2.76)
Johnson: home (7-2, 1.48) road (3-2, 2.81)
Halladay: home (9-4, 1.95) road (5-4, 2.91)
Ubaldo: home (8-0, 3.06) road (9-3, 2.16)
Frankly, Wainwright is better on the road than both Halladay and Johnson, so the fact that he is great at home doesn’t exactly hold water.
As between Wainwright and Ubaldo, well, obviously there is no comparison between pitching home games at Coors Field and pitching anywhere else in the National League.
Nevertheless, as Ubaldo returned to earth in July and August, he has done so both at home and on the road.
Ubaldo’s bad starts have included allowed six runs in Colorado, four runs in San Diego, seven runs in Colorado, six runs in Florida, and six runs in Philadelphia.
It would be disingenuous to assume that Ubaldo is only pitching poorly at home in 2010, just as it would be disingenuous to assume that Wainwright’s 2010 season has been purely a product of his home field.
So there you have it: on Friday, August 13, 2010, the National League officially has its fourth Cy Young Award front-runner of the season.
Will the lead change hands one more time before the season ends?
Will Ubaldo, Josh Johnson, or Roy Halladay be able to wrestle the lead back from Wainwright?
Will a new front-runner emerge from the pack?
Stay tuned.
Asher B. Chancey lives in Philadelphia and is a co-founder of BaseballEvolution.com.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
MLB 2010: Top Five Pitchers
After years of power hitting and home runs, pitching has finally won out in the MLB this season. There has been five no-hitters this year and numerous other close calls. So who has been the best pitcher this season in the MLB?
Here is a list of the top five pitchers in the MLB this year.
The Heartbeats of the Future: 10 Young Marlins Key To Postseason Return
In 2012, the Florida Marlins will move into a new ballpark in downtown Miami and will be renamed the Miami Marlins with an all new logo, color scheme, and young nucleus.
Most of their stars will be 30-years-old or younger, and I will highlight that here. Certainly, they have one of the most talented nucleus of players in the Major Leagues, and there is no telling what they can do once they move into a new environment, a true baseball stadium with the top players in the game.