Kuzul

Stephen Strasburg and Adam Wainwright would have been two of my answers to this column’s question before they were both sidelined with elbow injuries that will keep them off the diamond for most, if not all, of this season.

A team’s rotation is pretty fluid throughout the course of a year. In a 162-game season, teams will be plagued with injuries and most of these injuries will find pitchers sitting on the DL picking their noses with their good arms while their team pushes forward in an effort to make the postseason. Strasburg will do that this year as his teammate and fellow hurler Jordan Zimmerman did last year. 

Who will catch the injury bug is impossible to predict. I thought that Justin Verlander would have thrown his arm out of the socket by now considering how many innings and pitches he throws. He is overused in my opinion yet he still keeps trucking along at an amazing pace, throwing upper 90 fastballs and chalking up W’s for the Tigers.

I was counting on Adam Wainwright to anchor my fantasy team this year until his arm called it quits and forced me to draft John “lackluster” Lackey and Brian Matusz in an attempt to compensate for the loss. Matusz is now injured as well, nursing a hang nail or something.

Needless to say I am getting my grapes stomped thus far in fantasy but I’m not here to whine about that. I’m here to let you know who is going to garner the most wins per team this season and why.

You may disagree with me, as a lot of you so often do, or you may agree 100 percent with me as nobody ever does, but either way I won’t know if you don’t leave a comment. So please let me know your thoughts on this matter in the comment section. Thanks and enjoy. First up is the AL East. 

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It was truly unexpected.

If anyone tells you they “expected” Josh Beckett to give the Red Sox the kind of performance he gave them against the New York Yankees Monday night, then they are telling a tall tale (be prepared for a story about a 65-pound bass they caught at the local fishing hole last year).

It was unexpected because the native of Spring, Texas, went 6-6 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 21 starts last season. It was shocking because he went 1-2 with a 10.04 ERA and 2.04 WHIP against the Yankees last year while allowing 40 hits in just 26 innings pitched.

It was the kind of outing Red Sox Nation has been hoping he would produce for nearly two years, but it certainly wasn’t something that anyone on God’s good Earth could have expected.

With the Red Sox offense sputtering and Yankees ace CC Sabathia on the bump for the club’s archrivals, it seemed more appropriate to hope for an off-night by CC Sabathia than a stellar performance from Beckett.

There was a glimmer of hope right from the get-go. The right-hander’s fastball, which averaged 93 mph last season, repeatedly popped catcher Jason Varitek’s glove at 94-95 mph throughout the first inning.

Whereas he induced ground balls at a 31.3 percent clip in his first start of 2011—substantially below his career mark of 44.5—Monday night he had Yankee hitters beating the baseball into the ground. And as I have written in the past, I haven’t seen many ground balls hit for home runs—last year he surrendered 20 HR in just 127.2 innings pitched.

We have grown accustomed to seeing Beckett “pitching scared” over the last season-and-a-half—nibbling, getting behind in counts and then getting pounded by the opposition. He appeared to have lost confidence in his fastball and in turn relying more on his off-speed pitches. In many respects, he had become something he had never been.

Last night, the first two pitches he threw were balls. I immediately thought, “Here we go again!”, but it was the only time all evening I had any such thoughts. He threw strikes. The Yankees box score was populated with strikeouts and ground outs. He surrendered just two hits and issued one walk in nine innings pitched. He retired the last 14 batters he faced—five by strikeout and seven by ground out.

Yankees hitters put a grand total of FOUR batted balls into the outfield against him tonight.

Admittedly, it may be too early to declare that the old Josh Beckett is back, but he had not struck out at least 10 batters since July 27, 2009—and he hadn’t held an opposing team scoreless for eight or more innings since July 12, 2009 (a 6-0 shutout over Kansas City).

At the very least, we can at least say the “old” Josh Beckett made a cameo appearance at Fenway Park Monday. Whether or not he makes a recurring appearance in the 2011 baseball version of “That Championship Season” remains to be seen.

As for Monday evening’s performance, Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter said, “He was probably as good today as we’ve seen him in quite some time. He’s always a challenge, but that’s as good as I’ve seen him since I don’t remember when.”

Hopefully we will see a lot more of that Josh Beckett this season. I’m sick of watching him pitch and wondering: “Who are you, and what have you done with the REAL Josh Beckett?”

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I have made a decision: The 2011 major league baseball season began on April 8th.

I don’t need to hear you tell me that I’m crazy, or stupid, or ugly, or a pervert; the voices in my head tell me that all the time (especially Paul; he’s such a jerk!) This is not about logic, this is about survival. And we all know that the most important thing any organism can do, after eating deep-dish pizza, of course, is to survive. Don’t argue with me, I didn’t make the rules.

I have some solid, scientific evidence to back up my claim, too:

1. It was revealed that the Red Sox were not given a coffee grinder in either Texas or Cleveland and have been living off only store-bought Red Bull for a week. Some could argue that this is in direct violation of the Geneva Convention, making both the Rangers and Indians guilty of war crimes. But above all, it most certainly nullifies the first six games.

2. The Red Sox were also only given a draft copy of the 2011 season that had an additional six preseason games listed, and were never mailed the updated copy. They clearly weren’t really trying against Texas or Cleveland, they were still tuning up! Therefore, the early season losses were the fault of the commissioner, and possible Jerry Remy, not the team.

3. Also, Cleveland sets its rivers on fire every few years, which offers them a clear unfair psychological advantage that the league should investigate immediately (send in the UN).

4. Texas doesn’t really exist.

Given the irrefutable proof listed above, combined with an eloquent, beautiful and spectacular 2-1 series massacre against the arch-rival New York Yankees over the weekend that was in no way only a mediocre performance, I can only conclude that this team is back in shape and ready to show what they are truly made of (meat).

Of course, there are still concerns. The Red Sox did get rather poor pitching performances out of both John Lackey and Clay Buchholz, both of which failed to get out of the fifth with even a shred of dignity. Also, the Sox offense managed to strand 32 base runners. They seemed to get a dozen hits every inning but somehow almost never scored a run, a feat only accomplished by a team with an intimate knowledge of physics and a desire to lose spectacularly.

But the signs of life were unmistakable. Pedroia racked up an astounding nine hits to raise his season average to .400 (is it too early to compare him to Ted Williams?) and David Ortiz had four hits (all while looking fabulous!) while Youkilis seemed to walk more times than he had legal plate appearances (I suspect evil was somehow involved). And the main event, Josh Beckett, pitched a stellar, lights-out performance on Sunday, throwing 11 innings of shutout baseball, allowing only -1 walks and amassing 29 strikeouts en-route to a two-win outing. He was so good that the President called him to congratulate him on his effort, but he hung up because he’s from Texas.

Also, Jason Varitek looked annoyingly comfortable at the plate, something he has no business doing, as I had him all but written off as a ludicrously expensive bench coach for the remainder of 2011.

Carl Crawford still sucks, though.

Up next, the Red Sox welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to Fenway. This is a team so ungodly awful that they managed to become the one shining beacon of hope during the Red Sox’ 0-6 season start, similar to the emotion of seeing a haggard homeless person just a few minutes after being dumped by your girlfriend. If the Sox can take at least two games in the series and face Toronto with a 4-8 record or better, then I’d say the team is back on track and ready to make some noise (with a vuvuzela).

Until our next meet-up, stock pile your nachos and get ready to ride out an assuredly pleasant stretch of Red Sox victories; the 2011 season has just began, and I can quite clearly recall the media being certain that this team would manage to win 100 games, the World Series and cure cancer. It should be a lot of fun to watch…

…Unless they start to suck again…

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The Boston Red Sox needed a big performance from their pitching staff, and got one before a nationally televised audience Sunday night as they won their first series of the season, 2-1 over the New York Yankees.

Pitcher Josh Beckett was masterful, going eight innings, allowing two hits and striking out 10 batters. The win was the finest performance this season by any Red Sox pitcher.

It also marked the first time a Red Sox starter this season did not to allow a single run in a start.

Boston banged out 12 hits and stranded as many as 15 runners on base. Three times the Red Sox had bases loaded in the game and only once were they able to come away with anything: a two-run double by shortstop Marco Scutaro to add insurance runs to what had been a 1-0 lead most of the night.

Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon pitched a save-less ninth inning, striking out two and putting the finishing touches on a 4-0 shutout win of the Yankees.

New York was without Alex Rodriguez, who was scratched just before the game started due to flu-like symptoms. Eric Chavez, the six-time Gold Glover with the Oakland Athletics filled in and banged out one of New York’s two hits.

In the end, the Red Sox series clinching win was easily, their biggest win of the young season.

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The “Texas Red Sox Massacre” of this past weekend was not the opening series that Red Sox fans had dreamed about since December. Buchholz surrendered almost half as many home runs as he did all of last season, Lester made it clear that he knows which month this is and Lackey’s ERA is now sitting just north of 22. The bullpen wasn’t much better, as every reliever pitched and only Reyes, Albers, and Jenks failed to surrender a run. Still, serious concerns at this point are unnecessary- the team is bound to win at least a game before the season is out.

In all seriousness, though (opening series notwithstanding) the Red Sox look loaded. The additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez make the lineup borderline ridiculous, and GM Theo Epstein also significantly improved on last season’s greatest weakness, the bullpen. But, as with any team, some questions linger. Here are five entities on whom the team is, to one degree or another, crossing its fingers.

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As the dawn of the 2011 baseball season comes, one thing above all is certain: The 2011 Boston Red Sox are the greatest collection of baseball players ever to grace the game with their hallowed presence. Put this team against anyone, from any era, and they will stomp the snot out of them without even breaking a sweat. The 1927 Yankees? Don’t make me laugh! The 1998 Yankees? They had David Wells; need I say more? The 1932 Yankees…

Okay, enough with the Yankees. The point is, every newspaper, radio station, television analyst and homeless person has been telling us near nonstop just how undeniably, invariably and spectacularly awesome this team is.

I saw one such breakdown on a local sports network that claimed the Red Sox have a legitimate chance to sweep all major awards, win over 100 games, win the World Series, cure cancer and raise Papelbon from the dead. And I can’t think of a single reason to doubt their analysis.

Well, unless you count the three consecutive losses to start the year where they were outscored 26-11, Carl Crawford struck out five times and pitchers surrendered 11 home runs en route to a team ERA of 9.75 and a BA of .200…

But why would we worry about that? They were playing in Texas! If there is anything we can be more certain of other than the extreme talent possessed by Francona’s sexy, brooding squad of man-some is that Texas rarely obeys they laws of physics.

When a scientist tells a Texan that the Earth has gravity, a Texan will defiantly pull up his Wrangler’s, don a ferocious scowl and jump right off a bridge. And I think, as Americans, we should encourage this behavior.

The Sox have a much needed day off today before they head up to Cleveland, trying very hard not to touch anything on their trips to and from the ballpark. And I think the day off is a very good thing because it gives the Boston sports talk show hosts and diligent listeners a chance to completely flip out and threaten to kill everyone with fire.

I don’t believe I have ever seen a turnaround in faith this rapid and jarring since all the way back in the good ol’ days of 2010, which was the last time the Sox lost three or more in a row and made life not worth living anymore.

The only potential salvation lies in the arm of the Texan named Josh Beckett (assuming he hasn’t met any scientists recently), who spent most of 2010 trying to remember where his keys were. If it weren’t for the now infamous and successful transnational search, spearheaded by an international coalition of military forces, just before the winter meetings, Beckett might still be struggling.

We owe the outcome of this all-important game four to the men and women who gave the ultimate sacrifice to discover that the keys were actually on his counter the whole time, under a piece of paper that “wasn’t supposed to be there.”

I will join you again on Friday to discuss the arrival of the Yankees (the 2011 version, so don’t panic) at Fenway Park for this first time this season and chronicle their inevitable and merciless slaughter, unless, of course, they happen to win.

Where are my nachos?

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Josh Beckett and John Lackey were both treated to lavish paydays last season. To say that neither of them lived up to their deals in 2010 would be a colossal understatement. 

Lackey inked a five-year, $82.5 million deal when he signed with Boston in December 2009. Beckett and the Sox agreed to a four-year, $68 million extension last April.

Both pitchers then went out and combined for a 20-17 record, a 4.91 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.

Not exactly the stuff that wins Cy Youngs, huh?

Let it be said that Lackey was not as awful as Beckett. “Big John” did manage to lead the team last year in both quality starts (21) and innings pitched (215).

Beckett, however, presents a different story. It’s hard to imagine him being any worse than he was last year.

His alarming 10.6 H/9 was a whole two hits above his career H/9 figure. His 1.54 WHIP easily surpassed his previous career worst, a 1.32 mark in 2003.

So, what gives in 2011?

Both pitchers can fall back on legitimate excuses, though neither would ever do so publicly.

Lackey could offer that he was adjusting to a new city and a new division. He could point to Beckett, citing his ghastly 2006 which he followed up with a brilliant 2007.

Lackey just genuinely never looked like himself last year. He struggled all season with a new approach to his fastball, using his cutter almost exclusively over his four-seamer.

The cutter, which Lackey seldom ever threw before 2010, accounted for a whopping 41.9 percent of his pitches last year.

On the other hand, his the four-seamer, which Lackey had gone to over half the time in his three previous seasons, accounted for only 15.2 percent of his pitches in 2010. (FanGraphs)

Beckett, meanwhile, battled injury much of last year. He missed two months with a lower back strain, finally going on the DL in late May after a horrific start to the season.

Prior to his DL stint, Beckett was 1-1 in eight games with a 7.29 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. After coming back in late July, Beckett went 5-5 in 13 starts with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.

Not exactly a massive turnaround, but the difference nonetheless signals some sort of improvement and righting of the ship.

Like Lackey, Beckett’s 2010 reveals an usual pitch-selection breakdown. He used his four-seamer less than half as often as he normally does, and he also got away from using his good curveball.

Instead, Beckett went with his two-seamer, cutter and change-up more often than he ever had before. (FanGraphs)

As the Red Sox get ready to head to Texas to open the 2011 regular season, both Lackey and Beckett remain question marks, particularly Beckett, who has had a rough spring.

In the meantime, the Red Sox are blessed to have Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz both locked up through 2014 at deals that are far more club-friendly than Lackey and Beckett’s contracts. 

Moreover, if the younger of the two pitching duos continues to turn in Cy Young-worthy seasons, any misgivings and whining from fans concerning Lackey and/or Beckett is much minimized, for whatever that’s worth.

Aside from their respective on-field performance, it is still simply quite baffling that GM Theo Epstein handed Lackey and then Beckett the kind of contracts he did.

For these two pitchers, talented as they have been, to obtain the kind of deals they each did is stunning, given their ages, their abilities and the overall arcs of their respective careers.

Yet, one does not even need to parse apart these two as individuals; Beckett and Lackey each track near the top of the other’s comparison charts on Baseball-Reference.

Lackey and Beckett are big-game pitchers. They’re grinders. They’re innings eaters. They’re World Series winners. They are both never particularly stunning during the regular season, however both have October reputations that are well-deserved.

But are Beckett and Lackey great? Were they ever great?

Never mind greatness, the bottom line may just be that both are not even good anymore.

Some good indicators from last year though may point towards smoother 2011 seasons for these two.

Yet, the fact remains that if these two big-game Texans are ever going to live up to their XL contracts, it starts now.

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In all likelihood, Bud Selig won’t be hosting your fantasy baseball draft this year—but that doesn’t mean it’s not a big deal. You probably wouldn’t be reading this article if you weren’t in it to win it, and while it’s tough to win a league if your top picks don’t deliver, the best way to truly separate yourself from your fantasy league opponents is by nabbing some late-round value picks. 

The key to uncovering late-round draft day steals is to get a sense of what types of players tend to be undervalued in the fantasy marketplace. 

As I’ve detailed elsewhere, in reasonably shallow leagues sometimes it is the injury-prone player who can dramatically outproduce his draft slot while healthy.  Sometimes it is the former superstar many managers wrongly assume is now washed up.  Sometimes it is the famed “post-hype sleeper,” a relatively young player who did not initially live up to the hype but still possesses the talent that made them a touted prospect in the first place.  Sometimes it’s a player whose consistent production year after year is routinely under-appreciated, perhaps because the player isn’t “flashy” enough. 

For our purposes, “late-round” steals will only include players who are going in the 15th round or later (pick 169 onward) in 12-team standard leagues, according to either Mock Draft Central or Yahoo average draft position data.

On to the list we go.

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When Josh Beckett was traded to the Boston Red Sox in 2006, it was assumed he would be an Cy Young candidate and an ace for years to come. He was 25, an absolute hoss, and seemingly the reincarnation of Roger Clemens: a hard-throwing intimidator and strikeout king without fear.

And for the most part, he’s worked out for the BoSox just fine. He has pitched well—maybe not as consistently as Boston wanted—but he did lead the Red Sox to a Series victory in 2007, where he pitched lights out. His 2007 postseason: 4-0 with an ERA around 1.6.

Fast forward to now. Josh Beckett is no longer the ace of the Red Sox staff—Jon Lester is. He’s not the No. 2 pitcher either—Clay Buchholz is. In fact, Beckett is the No. 4 pitcher in the Red Sox rotation and is being jiggered by Terry Francona to make sure he starts the season against the Indians and not against the Yankees and Rangers.

Whoa…what’s happened to Beckett? Can he not even pitch to the Rangers without Red Sox Nation quaking in their caps? What’s wrong?

Well, checking the Fangraphs.com site, we see that Beckett has only lost only a touch off his mph, so arm strength is not the issue. No, looking further at the numbers, what the trouble seems to be is Beckett’s inability to spot his pitches like he used to. His curveball, once rock-reliable has lost movement and has earned a -2.1 wCB. His fastball, formerly his bread-and-butter pitch, has seemingly abandoned the lower half of the zone. Now up in the strike zone, Beckett’s wFB has plummeted and as a result, Beckett is relying more on his two-seamer and cutter to try to get better movement on his pitches.

It hasn’t worked. Contact against his pitches (not down in the zone anymore) is way up from where it used to be. Walks are also up to a career high for Beckett. Most telling, perhaps, is his swStrk (strikes swung on and missed) which is an all-time low. In short, he’s putting fatter pitches nice and up in the zone.

What’s also interesting to note is his change-up has actually gained almost three mph. So not only is his fastball slowing a bit, his change is speeding up. What the heck? How does that happen?

Well, last May, Red Sox manager Terry Francona expressed a concern with Beckett’s repeatable mechanics. According to the massblog.com of last May 29th:

“Josh Beckett’s return from the disabled list hit a roadblock yesterday after the Red Sox became concerned with the pitcher’s inability to repeat his delivery in a side session where he threw 20-25 pitches. Manager Terry Francona…said that Beckett was changing arm angles on his deliveries and that his inability to remain consistent is a cause for concern.”

Also, early last season, in the Boston Globe, (former) pitching coach John Farrell said:

“An additional side with Josh to reinforce, particularly out of the stretch, him getting back to a proper balance point and not getting his delivery too spread out to where he loses a downhill plane to his fastball. When he gets into a proper position, his curveball is less readable by an opposing hitter. Part of this is a constant use of the slide step that can cause some of the habits that we’re trying to recorrect here.”

If Beckett’s fastball isn’t really losing all that much mph, but batters are hitting him harder and he’s walking more per nine IP, logic would dictate that Farrell and Francona are right and that Beckett’s mechanics are fried, and he can’t locate like he used to. Seemingly this started somewhere in late 2009, when Beckett’s ERA ballooned from a mid-August low of 3.10 to a season’s end of 3.86 with a number of bad performances. Former pitching coach Farrell is quoted as saying on seacoastonline.com in late August after Beckett gave up 15 runs in 13.1 IP in 2 starts:

“(Poor) location of his pitches has caused the numbers to be where they are. It’s been a matter of missing with some fastballs up in the strike zone or a curveball that hasn’t had the same finish.” … And, Farrell added, that is easily correctable.

“For the majority of the season, he’s been so dominant in the bottom of the strike zone,” Farrell said. “Now, every effort is being made to get him down in the zone again. … But a little tidying of Beckett’s mechanics could produce a dramatic turnaround.

“There may be some times when maybe some added effort or an attempt to get some added velocity has caused him to get a little spread out (with his delivery) and caused him to throw the baseball on a little bit more of a flat plane rather than the downward angle that all pitchers need.”

For Yankee fans, the question is clearly, “Can Josh Beckett return to dominance?” Early signs are…not yet. Despite even more work on mechanics (new pitching coach Curt Young is shortening Beckett’s stride in an effort to get him to repeat his delivery more easily), spring training has been a repeat of last year, with nice flashes of hard heat and a sharp curve, then a terrible inning where he can’t seemingly get anyone out. So far, Beckett has the 5.02 ERA and a WHIP of 1.4.

Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are an awesome No. 1 and 2. John Lackey had a so-so 2010 and at age 32, it’s possible, but not guaranteed that he will be better in 2011, though most projections figure he will be somewhat better. In any event it’s questionable that Lackey will be as dominant as he used to be pitching to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in tiny Fenway Park. And Dice-K, minus a great 2008 season, has been a disappointment.

The key is Beckett. If he returns to form, the Red Sox have a dominant starting three. And a dominant starting three pretty much ensures you’ll win a short playoff series. If Beckett doesn’t return to form, however…well then, the Red Sox blew a sack full of money on a pitcher who’s busted.

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When Josh Beckett joined the Red Sox in 2006, he became an instant ace, anchoring the front-end of the Boston rotation, which at the time, was beginning to look a bit long in the tooth, thanks to the soon-to-be-retired Curt Schilling.

Fast forward six seasons, and the former 20-game winner is now a big question mark on an otherwise exclamation point of a team. Fans watched Beckett’s 2010 season implode on itself as he finished the year with a dismal six wins and a frightening 5.78 ERA, leaving many to wonder, regardless of the headline-grabbing offseason acquisitions, which Beckett would show up in 2011.

Should the Beckett bomb once again go off inside the confines of Fenway Park, can the otherwise-stacked Red Sox still compete in the AL East, home to some of the most intimidating bats in all of baseball?

This writer and BoSox enthusiast thinks they can, but it sure would be less stressful riding into September if the newly-announced FOURTH starter could return to his old ace ways. (Yes, the pitcher the Red Sox recently paid $68 million to stay with the team through 2014 has been dropped into the four-hole in the rotation).

Monster contracts aside, what team in Major League Baseball wouldn’t want Josh Beckett as their fourth starter? Sure, watching the pitcher get knocked around in 2010 made it difficult to muster up any confidence in his throwing arm, but then again, we had that same sour taste in our mouths back in 2008 before he bounced back a year later and finished out 2009 with one of his best professional seasons to date.

Now, I’m not suggesting Beckett is going to have a super-sized bounce-back season in 2011, but he’s certainly better than a six-game winner, especially with this offense backing him up. But if he can’t find his groove (and the strike zone), things could certainly get dicey towards the back end of the rotation, especially with the ever-inconsistent Dice-K following up every night.

The offensive improvements made within the AL East also bode poorly for the return of Beckett’s glory days. With plenty of big bats dropped into the Orioles lineup and an always scary roster of Yankee smashers sprinkled into the season schedule, there won’t be very many “off” days for Red Sox pitchers, so any flirting with a 5.78 ERA just won’t cut it.

Whether or not the Red Sox win the division or take home the wild card also depends on another wild card shaping up in New York. If the Yankee organization decides that their mostly Band-Aid rotation isn’t stopping the bleeding, they could cut ties with some of their prized minor leaguers and make a big move to bring in a big arm. If that happens, Beckett’s performance (or lack thereof) becomes much more of a conversation starter around the sausage carts on Yawkey Way.

Can the Red Sox win the entire kit and kaboodle without Josh Beckett being the Josh Beckett of old? Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, both coming off career-best years in 2010, would say so. The big question now is, can Beckett, known for being a very competitive player, slip into the backseat of the car and let the young arms drive this team into another postseason?

If he can be comfortable in his new role and not cling to his ace past, Beckett will help this team, but if he becomes unhappy and requires coddling, expect that ripple effect to carry into the clubhouse and possibly put a scarlet stink on the most anticipated Red Sox season in years.

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