Kuzul

Jason Bay’s debut season with the Mets was a disaster. I don’t think that there is any better way to put it. 

First he was plagued by simple inability (.259, 6 HR, 47 RBI, 48 R in 348 AB) before his season was cut short due to a concussion.  After signing a four-year, $66 million contract prior to the 2010 season, significantly more was expected from both the Mets and fantasy owners.

Due $16 million in 2011, the question now is if he can rebound to what we thought could’ve been.

Bay is the same player who posted 30-plus HR years in four out of five seasons from 2005-2009. 

Yes, CitiField easily could’ve zapped a little bit of his power, but just six?!  That just doesn’t seem likely.  It wasn’t just that he didn’t hit at home (3 HR in 159 AB), but he was also pathetic on the road (3 HR in 189 AB).

His fly ball rate was consistent with his career, as he was at 45.2 percent (compared to 44.5 percent for his career).  The problem was in his HR/FB rate.  Just look at the percentages since 2005:

• 2005 – 17.0
• 2006 – 18.8 
• 2007 – 11.4 
• 2008 – 15.0 
• 2009 – 19.7 
• 2010 – 5.1 

Which of these numbers doesn’t belong?

David Wright is not a perfect comparison (for various reasons), but we saw him struggle with power in his first year at CitiField as well.  He went from 33 HR in ’08 to 10 HR in ’09 back to 29 HR in ’10.

Maybe there an intimidation factor at play with the big confines of CitiField…

Maybe he was pressing to impress his new teammates…

Maybe it was the adjustment back to the NL…

Whatever it was, we clearly didn’t get the Jason Bay we have come to expect.  There’s no reason to think that he won’t bounce back from it.  I think the greater concern is the concussion that ended his season on July 25. 

The other problems can be explained and there is reason to believe that a rebound will come.  The concussion Is physical and there really is no guarantee that he fully recovers from it (it’s a similar concern that we have regarding Justin Morneau).

Still, the potential upside in Bay makes him well worth drafting in all formats.  While it is tough to expect him to return to his 30-plus HR days, would it surprise anyone if he hit 25 in 2011?  It’s not like he wasn’t still showing extra base power, with 20 doubles and six triples in 2010.

The rest of his metrics were believable (26.1 percent strikeout rate, .329 BABIP), so with an increase in power should come an increase in average.

In fact, let’s assume 550 AB and those metrics staying about the same.  If he was to hit 25 HR, his average would be .273.  Don’t believe a .329 BABIP?  Even if he was to fall to .310, his average would be .260. 

While that’s not an elite mark, it certainly isn’t going to kill you.

Throw in the fact that he hits in the middle of the Mets lineup, which should provide ample opportunities for RBI and Runs, there’s an awful lot to like.  I know there are concerns about the Mets, but with Jose Reyes, David Wright, Ike Davis and company, if everyone can stay healthy scoring won’t be a concern.

As a baseline, I would consider him a .265 hitter with 20 HR, 80 RBI, 70 R and 12 SB (keep in mind, this is not my actual projection for him).  Who is that comparable to?

In 2010, Hunter Pence hit .282 with 25 HR, 91 RBI, 93 R and 18 SB.  Are those better numbers than my baseline for Bay?  Absolutely, but they aren’t significantly off, especially when you take the ADP into consideration. 

Pence is currently the 21st outfielder off the board going around pick 87.  Bay, meanwhile, is the 44th outfielder off the board going around pick 174.

That’s around seven rounds later for a player whose upside is certainly the same as Pence’s.  In fact, given Bay’s history, would it be surprising to see him outperform Pence?  If you like taking Pence in Round 7, you certainly should like taking Bay in Round 14 or later.

What are your thoughts of Bay?  Do you think he could bounce back in ’11?  How good do you think he could perform?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out some of our 2011 projections:

• Buchholz, Clay
• Butler, Billy
• Choo, Shin-Soo
• Ethier, Andre
• Freese, David
• Hughes, Phil
• Jaso, John
• Johnson, Chris
• Morrow, Brandon
• Uggla, Dan
• Reyes, Jose
• Suzuki, Kurt
• Willingham, Josh
• Young, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With the baseball season right around the corner, the baseball hot stove is scolding hot. Teams that missed out on big free agent signings are still trying to make a splash via trades. 

Some players could find themselves landing in a favorable situation, that opens the door for them to make some noise. Fantasy studs could be born next season with a change of scenery.

Begin Slideshow

There’s no question about it; given the team’s underwhelming performance in 2010, coupled with the shake up in the front office and their on-field staff, the New York Mets are in a period of transition. 

With transition comes change, and change brings uncertainty. 

However, here are five predictions that you can be sure will come to fruition for the Mets in 2011.  

Begin Slideshow

The New York Mets cleaned house at the top of the organization with the firing of Jerry Manuel and Omar Minaya at the end of the 2010 season.  Bringing in Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins were the proper first steps to take towards bringing the franchise back to respectability, but there are many holes to fill in the roster before the Mets can become contenders again.

With the 2011 season right around the corner, here are 10 moves that the Mets can make to take steps in the right direction.

Begin Slideshow

Even a case of short-term memory loss can’t erase the memory of Jason Bay’s first season as a New York Met. Granted, it wasn’t a full season due to the concussion he sustained at Dodger Stadium, but it’s just too early to call Bay a free-agent bust.

“Last year, for all intents and purposes for me, was a lost year, as far as production and injury,” Bay said Tuesday at the Mets annual Christmas party.

His season ended on July 25, when concussion-related headaches and pains kept him out the remainder of the year. But as he implied on Tuesday, he is feeling much better and seems to have put his problems behind him to focus on a productive 2011 campaign.

“Since about the last week of the season, I didn’t have anymore issues,” said Bay, who also told reporters that he hasn’t exactly resumed baseball activities, but the workouts he goes through are much more strenuous than anything on the field.

So by all accounts, Bay is back.

Last season’s aberration in production can quickly be blamed on the transition to the bright lights of the Big Apple. Much like the situation with Carlos Beltran five years ago, Bay was our off season headliner who had every bright light fixated on him.

The similarities between the two could speak to how well Bay will do this upcoming season:

Beltran’s last year before joining Mets: 599 AB, 38 HR, 104 RBI, 42 SB, .267/.367/.548

Beltran’s 1st year with Mets: 582 AB, 16 HR, 78 RBI, 17 SB, .266/.330/.414

Beltran’s 2nd year with Mets: 510 AB, 41 HR, 116 RBI, 18 SB, .275/.388/.594

Bay’s last year before joining Mets: 531 AB, 36 HR, 119 RBI, .267/.384/.537

Bay’s 1st year with Mets: 348 AB, 6 HR, 47 RBI, .259/.347/.402

Looking at these stats, I am not expecting Bay to set a franchise record for home runs, but I do expect to see Bay have a bounce-back season that will look similar to the player he has been his entire career, not just in Boston.

Bay has made his name by cracking 25-35 home runs and driving in 100+ runs, so there is no question, when fully healthy, he can do this again for the Mets.

Predictions don’t really mean much in December unless they come true this summer, but with a healthy Bay, and a more mature and healthy cast around him, it’s not hard to objectively predict Bay to hit 25-30 home runs, drive in 100+ with a .280+ average in Citi Field.

What do you think?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

While baseball is America’s Pastime, the game has extensive roots and deep tradition in the country to its north as well. The first documented evidence of baseball in Canada dates back to 1838 shortly after it became popular in the United States. As has been stereotyped, we Canadians are certainly very proud of our fellow compatriots in the game.

Today, the tradition lives on as in the past five years, two Canadians have won an MVP Award: Justin Morneau in 2006 (AL) and Joey Votto (NL) just recently. Larry Walker won the NL in 1997 and is perhaps the best Canadian batter in major league history, while Ferguson Jenkins is without question the greatest canuck pitcher ever.

Here is my compilation of the Ten Best Canadian Players in Baseball Today.

Begin Slideshow

On December 29, 2009, the Mets and free agent outfielder Jason Bay agreed to a four-year, $66 million deal with a fifth year vesting option that could bring the deal over the $80 million plateau.

He was coming off an All-Star year in Boston, and even won a Silver Slugger award. He finally earned the contract he deserved after some great years being buried in Pittsburgh.

If someone who did not watch Bay all year looked at his 2010 stats compared to those of the rest of his career, they may think that the Mets wasted a ton of money on a washed-up player.

I would have to disagree here, considering Bay was limited to only 95 games after suffering a concussion in late July.

Bay didn’t necessarily get off to a great start in New York. However, from mid-May to mid-June, he was a productive player, keeping his batting average in the .285 range. Surprisingly, Bay showed he still had good speed by blasting six triples and swiping 10 bases without being caught.

He played an excellent left field defense, which eventually cost him the remainder of the season after making a fantastic grab up against the wall in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.

The problem with Bay all year is that he failed to do the things he was brought over here to do: hit home runs and more importantly, drive in runs.

Even in just 95 games, he still only managed six home runs. Here’s a guy who averages 30 HR per 162 games, and only hit six after signing a huge offseason contract.

Granted, Citi Field is not the ideal home run hitter’s ballpark. So, home runs aside, Bay still struggled with driving in runs. He only drove in 47 runs in his shortened season, far lower than what the Mets expected when they signed him.

Bay was successful at the one thing the Mets knew they were going to get when they signed him, and that’s strikeouts. Usually when a player’s power increases, strikeouts tend to increase as well. Not the case for Bay. He still recorded 91 strikeouts in 95 games.

But injuries happen to all ballplayers, especially when they play for the Mets.

In my mind, Bay has somewhat of a clean slate in 2011. He struggled mightily in his first year of the contract, but he has possibly four more years to make up for it. You can tell that he is a competitive guy, and this year’s struggles did not sit well with him.

He will be poised for a big year for the Mets. He might not hit 30 HR, and he will probably still strike out 150 times. But hopefully he can be a clutch force in the middle of the Mets lineup and drive in over 100 runs, which he has done four other times in his career.

Depending on the Mets’ offseason activity, Bay would fit well in the sixth spot in the Mets order. Wright, Beltran, Davis and Bay in that order (and if all healthy) could create havoc for National League pitching staffs throughout the season.

Last year, there was a ton of pressure on Bay early in the season to carry the team. I mean, when Mike Jacobs and Gary Matthews, Jr. are in the Opening Day starting lineup, of course there’s going to be pressure on guys like Bay and Wright to produce.

But on a healthy team, and despite his massive salary, Bay would fit nicely as a role player on the Mets. In fact, if everyone on the team does their own job, the Mets may surprise some nonbelievers.

Your time has come, J-Bay. Do what you were brought here to do.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

New Mets general manager Sandy Alderson made it pretty clear when he took the job: don’t look forward to big free agent signings this offseason or any huge trades unless they’re perfect. That means that this current Mets roster will be virtually the same come Opening Day in Miami.

Actually, it won’t be the same for a negative reason. Ace starting pitcher Johan Santana will miss some time recovering from shoulder surgery and it’s not clear when he’ll be ready to pitch in 2011.

So, if this were the offseason heading into 2012, the Mets would’ve went after Cliff Lee to fill the void. Next offseason, the Mets may be the biggest spenders in baseball as some big contracts will come off the books. Notably the ones of Carlos Beltran, Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez, and if the Mets elect, Francisco Rodriguez. Jose Reyes will also be a free agent.

It isn’t next offseason, though, and therefore the Mets will start the season with Mike Pelfrey as the “ace.”

In 2010, the Mets went through a major youth movement. The season didn’t start out like that and the plan was to compete. But as the season went along into the summer, Ike Davis was called up from the minors, Josh Thole eventually became the starting catcher, and Ruben Tejada got a lot of time at second base. There were a bunch of other youngsters contributing like Jon Niese and in September, Lucas Duda.

At the end of the season, after a bunch of games featuring seven rookies in the starting lineup, the team won 79 games. That was with Pelfrey winning 15 games and with Santana pitching dominant baseball at times and with the team putting together two eight-game winning streaks.

The team was too young and too inconsistent with a lot of dead weight on the roster. As of today, just days before Thanksgiving, Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez are still on the roster. It looks like the exact team that produced 79 wins in 2010, will return for 2011.

So, where does that leave the Mets? You can’t really expect an increase in victories and should really expect a decrease with the loss of Santana and his 11 wins and 2.98 ERA.

The lineup will be the same with rookies on the right side of the infield and Wright and Reyes on the left side. The outfield has potential but Jason Bay was a bust up until his season-ending concussion in his first season with the Mets. Carlos Beltran hasn’t played a full season since 2008 and Angel Pagan has to play like he did last season.

The starting rotation is a complete mess made worse by Santana’s injury. There are three guys that can be relied on with Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Jon Niese but the latter two are question marks.

Can Dickey’s knuckler be as effective to the tune of 11-14 wins? Can Niese rebound from late-season struggles? Even if all three mainstays perform up to their best capability, who’s pitching the other two games?

Hisanori Takahashi was not re-signed and Pat Misch isn’t a viable option. The Mets could perhaps sign a second-tier free agent starter such as Jorge De La Rosa, Carl Pavano, or Javier Vazquez but they can’t sign two of them.

Pavano and Vazquez were both busts as members of the other New York team and haven’t proven to be effective in big games.

So, the rotation is a mess and the bullpen is awful as of now. It could get better but two key pieces are missing. As mentioned, Hisanori Takahashi was not brought back as he could’ve been a setup man to Rodriguez.

And the even bigger loss if he isn’t brought back would be Pedro Feliciano. He’s been the best left-handed specialist in baseball over the last five seasons and if he’s gone, the bullpen is officially terrible.

Nothing concerning the current or even possible Opening Day Mets roster gives you much hope for 2011. It’s going to be another grind and it’s almost like what the Knicks went through over the past two seasons. Not expecting much until some money is cleared to work with, which it will be.

This Mets team looks like a 75-79 win team at the highest and there’s not much to improve that right now.

Can you wait for 2012? You’re going to have to have patience in order to witness this team play meaningful games in October again.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

This past weekend, New York Mets All-Star third baseman David Wright was at the Chelsea Piers holding a baseball clinic for the youth of New York. While there, he answered some intriguing questions that have come up in past offseasons, most notably the issue of whether to adjust the dimensions of the outfield walls at Citi Field.

Each year I’m a supporter of this proposal, and each year it’s been vetoed by ownership. Maybe this year, or a year in the near future, it could be different.

With Sandy Alderson now running the Mets front office, he has already been fixing the image of the Mets by hiring new businessmen with experience and firing those who could portray a negative image of the organization. One aspect the team could change to bolster their image is adjusting the vast dimensions of Citi Field.

David Wright, now taking a more outspoken leadership role, touches upon the effects of playing in such an expanse playing field during his interview with Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com:

“I don’t think there’s any question that it affects your thought process and your swing…”

This is exactly what we don’t need our “power source” in the lineup to be worried about before he steps to the plate. We need David to be doing what he does best and lead this team to victory, but instead he’s got to speak about issues like this.

“I’ve kind of learned firsthand that you’re just not going to hit very many opposite-field home runs at Citi…I’d be lying if I said that I wish [the wall wasn’t shorter in right-center] because I think one of my strengths is going the other way, and going the other way with power. Instead of home runs they turn into doubles, triples, whatever.”

He seems OK with the situation, but I don’t think he would be speaking in such detail if he was just OK with it.

Currently the field is 364 feet in left, 408 feet in center and a staggering 415 feet in deep right field.

Like Wright said, my big issue comes from the “Mo Zone” in deep right field and that giant wall eating up any potential home run balls coming its way. Its 415 feet out there and it could definitely be moved in with little opposition from anyone, but great praise from many players and fans.

The height of both right and left field should be reevaluated and shortened to a height that will bring back the probability of the exciting home run rob a la Endy Chavez. Nothing is more exciting in sports than robbing what everyone thinks is a sure thing. With the height of the walls the way it is now, the chance of making a highlight reel play is extremely little to none at all.

The Mets did improve their home run totals in Citi Field from 2009 to 2010 hitting 14 more than they did a year ago. But if we want to see a healthy 2011 Mets led by David Wright, Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran reach their home run potential, then management should seriously begin to discuss reassessing the park where they play over half their season.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

As baseball fans know the Omar Minaya era has came to an end in New York after six years.  Though the Mets had one of the highest payrolls when Minaya was in office the team never really established themselves other than in 2006. 

As a Mets fan, I must say Omar did bring us some good times but he definitely brought us some bad times.  Minaya brought in the likes of Johan Santana and Carlos Beltran but on the other end he also brought in the likes of Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez. 

So let’s all take a look at the Minaya era in New York—the good, the bad and the ugly.

Begin Slideshow