Kuzul

If there was ever a moral reason to watch sports, and not just purely for entertainment value, it is to teach you that anything can happen and there is a reason why we don’t just select the winner.  Watching the NCAA Tournament every year reminds me of this when you see teams like George Mason, Butler, and now VCU this year beat opponents the “experts” say they never had a chance against.

Listening to Mike Francesa while driving in the car (I’ll still never know why I do this to myself) people are saying you are insane if you think the Mets will have any success this year and are writing them off before the season begins. Are they the best team in baseball, league, or even division? No. At least not on paper, but how often does the best team actually win?

The Mets have their holes I won’t even try to deny that.  With their ace Johan Santana out for most of the season and a chance to be the whole year if there are any setbacks their rotation is a huge question mark.  The most proven guy in the rotation is Mike Pelfrey and he is even still erratic. You just never know what you are going to get.  A sophomore pitcher is the team’s number two starter, a knuckleballer the number three, and two guys in the second year of rehab after major surgery round out the rotation.  It sounds like the rotation of a last place team, but another solid season from Big Pelf, an improvement off a nice rookie campaign, more magic from R.A. Dickey, and one of the reclamation projects panning out makes this a very nice rotation. 

I don’t think it would be that much of a stretch to say this rotation winds up exceeding expectations with the personalities of each pitcher.  It is a rotation filled with gamers who have done nothing, but prove doubters wrong for their whole career (outside of Pelfrey) so what’s to stop them now.  My prediction is the rotation actually keeps the offense in most games this season and gives them an opportunity to win every game.

All-Star third baseman David Wright, All-Star shortstop Jose Reyes, All-Star outfielder Jason Bay and All-Star outfielder Carlos Beltran have all had their fair share of problems recently, but it just goes to show what type of talent is in this lineup.  Bay who was awful last year was coming off back-to-back 30 homer seasons and is having a great spring, Reyes quietly had a very solid season last year and is in a walk year, when Beltran is healthy he hits that part is never in question, and Wright finally seems to be getting his power stroke back.

Not to mention Angel Pagan who should have been an All-Star last year and has some new confidence predicting he will steal more bags than Reyes, a former league leader in steals. Throw in Ike Davis who was nothing short of solid in his rookie season and you can see an offense that can put up runs.  A lot of faith is being placed in the health of players (Bay, Beltran, even Reyes) and young players (Davis, Josh Thole, Brad Emaus/2nd baseman), but I just don’t see how you can completely write off a lineup that has as much potential as this one.

As with every team, this is not even close to a perfect team but it is far from the last place team people are calling them.  With the new philosophies of Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins who’s to say they will not inject a new energy in this team that has seemed to be the only thing lacking in previous years causing their infamous collapses?

What I am trying to say is no one knows how this team is going to perform because it is very different from the Mets teams of years past. Call me a very optimistic Mets’ fan but I see a team that if things go right have every chance to contend.  Just imagine a team 4 games or less back to only have their ace come back mid-season and inject new vigor to the team.

Let’s just play the games and decide the outcome on the field before writing a team off before the season even starts.

//**If you liked this article find more like it at Mini Mets Pipeline**\\

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

While many baseball experts already count the New York Mets out of playoff contention this early in the spring, the Mets have many athletes that can surpass expectations enough to make a legitimate comeback in 2011.

As the team continues to work hard in Port St. Lucie, here is a list of the seven recovering New York Mets that will have the biggest impact on the 2011 MLB season.

Begin Slideshow

Jason Bay had a disappointing first season in New York last year, and if the Mets offense is going to be any better this year, they need Bay to have a bounce-back season.

Clearly, Bay is capable of having a big season at the plate. He’s done it in the past with the Pirates and Red Sox numerous times.

I’ve spent a few days in Port St. Lucie this week to watch the Mets play in spring training and I have to admit, it’s troubling to see how badly Bay is struggling right now.

Now, I know full well that it would be foolish to make projections about the regular season based on spring training performance. Every year there are dozens of players who have great spring trainings and then go on to have less than stellar seasons, and vice versa.

However, at the same time, I think it would be unwise to completely disregard what I’ve seen with my own eyes.

Right now, Jason Bay is struggling as bad as I’ve seen a Major Leaguer struggle in spring training. This is not a case of a guy getting unlucky on his batting average on balls in play, or getting squeezed by an umpire consistently, or anything like that.

In the two games I’ve watched in person, in the six place appearances Bay has had, he’s looked terrible. Yes, it’s the smallest of sample sizes.

But every other singe player on the team is at least making solid contact. In his six at bats, I saw him make solid contact on TWO pitches: a foul ground ball and a ground out to third.

To say his timing is off would be an understatement. He’s been late on a few pitches, earlier on others and has made contact less than five times in those two games.

He had three swinging strikeouts on Friday, only making contact on a single pitch in that game before being lifted from the game (as is custom in a spring training game) after his third at-bat.

Unfortunately, on Sunday he still looked pretty out of sorts. He actually put the ball into play in his first at-bat when he grounded out to the third baseman, but he struck out in his final two at-bats.

Both times he struck out looking. Both of those at-bats he took pitches right down the middle for strikes two and three.

Obviously, his timing is off right now and he’s not seeing the ball very well.

But it’s not like he’s been this bad all spring. Even with that 0-for-6 stretch, he’s still hitting .292 overall in the spring. But that’s with only a single extra base hit, a double, and no walks.

He’s now struck out 10 times in 24 spring at-bats with only one RBI, for what it’s worth.

I’m not saying Bay can’t get out of this slide and get hot again, but I’m starting to become pessimistic if he’ll ever live up to the big contract Omar Minaya gave him as a going away present to the Mets.

Bay was brought in to be a legitimate power threat in the middle of the lineup, and he was anything but in his 2010 debut with the Mets.

Again, I really don’t want to hit the panic button in the middle of March, but I would like to at least see some signs of life before April 1. Otherwise, it could be another long year for the Mets left fielder.

You can read more Mets news, notes and analysis on TheSheaFaithful.com

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With spring training starting to get into full swing, we are learning more and more about the players each day. As a result, I believe it is time to give you my projections for the 2011 Mets.

On Monday, Craig gave his projections for the Mets’ Opening Day roster. You will see a lot of similarity between the picks, but you will also see differences when it comes down to some of the last spots on the roster.

Begin Slideshow

Someone with a name as big as Jason Bay‘s can hardly be considered a sleeper. Perhaps “bounce back candidate” is the better term. I mean, do we really believe Bay’s disintegration last season is a long-term issue?

The fact is Bay has both comeback and sleeper potential. If he had played last season in Boston, they’d have blamed his collapse on a slow start and a season-ending concussion. However, pessimists, or realists (if you prefer), would point to the impact of playing within Citi Field’s vast confines as the source of his steep decline in production.

Citi Field certainly doesn’t offer the same short porch that Bay took advantage of at Fenway Park.

Fantasy GMs and “experts” seem to have more faith in a return to fantasy prominence for Grady Sizemore than Bay, who is currently being drafted with the likes of supposed fantasy writeoffs Magglio Ordonez and Manny Ramirez.

In truth, Citi Field will likely temper Bay’s power numbers, but 20-25 dingers is not unrealistic. He should be healthy this season, and we should all remember that injuries and poor play decimated the entire Mets lineup in 2010. As the team regroups, so should Bay’s numbers.

While it’s not likely Bay will ever replicate his 2009 fantasy season, he can certainly get more in line with his career production, and 100 runs and RBI is certainly obtainable, though I’ll stick with a more conservative estimate below.

My Projected Stats for Bay’s 2011 Season:

504 AB, 88 R, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 69 BB, 134 K, 14 SB, .272 AVG

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

There isn’t a lot to look forward to when it comes to the New York Mets in 2011. There are more questions than answers surrounding this team right now, and with the lawsuit stemming from the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme hanging over their heads, fan morale is at an all-time low.

Well cheer up Mets fans! It’s Spring Training, and with it comes a clean slate. Will the Mets win the World Series this season? Probably not. Can they win the World Series? Sure they can; any team can. That’s why it’s a clean slate.

So let’s take a look at 10 bold predictions for the upcoming 2011 season and the New York Mets.

Begin Slideshow

Neil Walker. Jose Tabata. Pedro Alvarez.

Three names Pittsburgh Pirates fans have probably been familiar with for the years leading up to their major league debuts in 2010. 

Whether it has been through trade or by evaluating talent and drafting the appropriate player, the Pirates have amassed some talent once again in their farm system. 

While some prospects are multiple years away from making an impact at the major-league level; others are primed to make their names known to the fans at PNC Park and around the city of Pittsburgh.

The prospects will not emerge as stars from day one, but they will find their niches on a struggling Pirates franchise. Combine the young nucleus that has leaked its way onto the Pirates opening day roster, with these five talented minor leaguers, and there may be a light at the end of the tunnel for Pirates players, management and faithful.

Begin Slideshow

Outfield is one of the toughest positions to rank.  At the top, things are not as deep as we would like, but we are flooded with youngsters who have the potential to join the group of elite options. 

Can someone like Hunter Pence or Jay Bruce take that next step forward?  Can Mike Stanton or Jason Heyward live up to the hype? 

Will Jason Bay, Nick Markakis and Ben Zobrist rebound from disappointing 2010 campaigns?

Let’s take a look at how these questions and all the rest factor into our updated rankings:

1. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers
2. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies
3. Carl Crawford – Boston Red Sox
4. Matt Holliday – St. Louis Cardinals
5. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Angels
6. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers
7. Alex Rios – Chicago White Sox
8. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates
10. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros
11. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds
12. Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians
13. Jason Heyward – Atlanta Braves
14. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers
15. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks
16. Mike Stanton – Florida Marlins
17. Colby Rasmus – St. Louis Cardinals
18. Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays
19. Jayson Werth – Washington Nationals
20. Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox
21. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners
22. Curtis Granderson – New York Yankees
23. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks
24. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies
25. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays
26. Jason Bay – New York Mets
27. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles
28. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
29. Delmon Young – Minnesota Twins
30. Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

Thoughts:

• Andrew McCutchen is a player who has the potential to be one of the elite outfielders in the game.  I know there is a stigma against him, playing for the Pirates and all, but do not let it skew your impression.  There’s a good chance that he moves to the third hole giving him the opportunity to drive in more runs than he did in ’10 (56 RBI).  As I’ve said before, he has the potential to be a .300/20/85/85/30 player in 2011.  Is that something you are going to complain about?  For more on McCutchen, make sure to check my previous article on him by clicking here. 
• While Carlos Gonzalez may not be able to replicate a .384 BABIP, he still brings 30/100/100/30 potential.  What exactly is there not to like about that?  He’s a Top 10 overall option and a great pick in all formats.
• I know there are people who think extremely highly of Josh Hamilton, but I don’t see him as a Top 5 outfielder.  The risk of injury is always going to hang over him, and he also benefited from an unrealistic .390 BABIP.  He’s an extremely good option, but I would keep your expectations in check.  For more on Hamilton and why I don’t see him as a first-round option, click here. 
• With Jayson Werth’s move to Washington his value has to take a bit of a hit.  Of his 87 home runs over the past three years, 50 of them have come at Citizens Bank Ballpark.  You also have to consider the fact that the supporting cast around him is just not going to be what it was in Philadelphia.  You also can’t expect him to replicate a .296 average (.352 BABIP), as he is a career .272 hitter.  All in all he’s a nice player, but someone that should be viewed as an OF2.
• There certainly is a risk hovering over Jason Bay given his injuries and inabilities in 2010, but I wouldn’t shy away from him.  He has as much upside as anyone and, assuming he can fully come back from his 2010 concussions, he should reemerge as a solid option.  I’ve already stated that he has the potential to produce similar numbers to Hunter Pence, yet at least seven rounds later.  For more on this comparison, click here. 
• Not a believer in Mike Stanton as a Top 20 outfielder?  He has already proven that he has Major League power by hitting 22 HR in 396 AB in ’10.  I know the strikeouts are concerning, but he clearly has the makings of being Adam Dunn v2.0.  Is there anyone who would complain about that?  He’s certainly worth grabbing, especially considering how many players actually have the potential to hit 40 HR at this point.
• Does anyone really expect Jose Bautista to replicate his 2010 performance?  Just keep that in mind.

What are your thoughts on the rankings?  Who’s too high?  Who’s too low?

**** Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2011 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here. ****

Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers
• 2011 Fantasy Draft First Round Breakdown

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Spring Training is right around the corner and that means that your fantasy baseball draft can’t be too far away either.

The New York Mets are not seen as legitimate contenders in the National League, but that doesn’t mean that its players won’t be able to help you dominate your opposition this season.

Let’s take a look at which Mets batters could play a role in 2011.

David Wright

Whether you’re playing in a mixed league or an NL-only league, Wright will likely be a first-round pick. He’ll probably go toward the end of the first round in a 12-team league, but Mock Draft Central is reporting that he’s gone anywhere from fifth to 16th in the past week.

Either way, there’s only a small window to pick him up. If you have any of the first four picks in the draft, you probably won’t get Wright. He’s not worth picking ahead of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera or Troy Tulowitzki. If you’re in a mixed league then Evan Longoria should be your priority at third base.

By the time your second pick comes around, Wright will be off the board.

If you are picking in or around the No. 7 spot, Wright will be an interesting proposition. The next viable options at the hot corner are A-Rod or Ryan Zimmerman.

All three players are key men on their respective teams, and all three are likely to get anything from 500 at-bats upwards. Wright has the least power of the three, and even though he’s a lock for 20 homers, what he gives up in power he makes up for in speed. A .290 average, 100 RBIs, 20 steals and 85 runs is a pretty good prediction for Wright.

If you want to tick a lot of boxes in one go, Wright is worth the investment. If you miss out on him, don’t worry. There are several other options available, it just may mean you have to hunt for more speed later on.

Jose Reyes

Reyes presents both opportunities and threats on draft day. He’s a long way behind Tulowitzki and Ramirez, but well ahead of the rest of the shortstop field with the exception of Jimmy Rollins.

I’ve seen Reyes slip to the end of the third round in Yahoo! drafts this week, in which case he represents quite a steal, but the fact is that he’s more likely to go in the early to mid stages of the second.

The question you need to ask yourself is whether he is worth the risk? If you have tempered expectations for Reyes, then 30-plus steals and double-digit homers and triples isn’t too much of a reach. If you think he’s going to stay healthy the whole year, you can add 20 to 30 percent to these numbers, but that is a massive risk.

As most experienced fantasy players will know, risk is the one thing that you want to avoid in the first few rounds.

If you grabbed a speedy outfielder like Carl Crawford, Ichiro or Jacoby Ellsbury in the first round you can probably pass on Reyes because you will already be ahead of the field in terms of speed. If not, only consider Reyes if you’re sure of the health of his wheels or if he drops too far.

Jason Bay

After Wright and Reyes, no Mets player is likely to be leaving the draft board for at least the next eight or nine rounds. According to early mock draft reports, Bay will be the first New York outfielder to get snatched up, despite a below-par 2010 that caused a lot of fans to question his value to the club.

Early indications show that Bay will go around No. 140 in the draft, around the 12th round in a 12-team league.

By this point of the draft, average draft position (ADP) isn’t as important as the group that a player is being selected. With that in mind, there’s very little difference in taking someone ranked 132 as opposed to someone 142.

Bay may slip in your draft on account of his performance last year and the ridiculous dimensions of the Citi Field outfield. Should that happen, Bay will be the 35th to 40th outfielder taken overall, meaning he will most likely be a third outfielder on your team.

The three-time All-Star hit just six homers and plated 47 runs in 95 games last year, so what can you expect from him in 2011?

I’ve seen projections as good as 23 home runs and 92 RBIs and I’ve seen them as low as 17 and 66. Both scenarios assume he’s going to be fully fit, and right now there’s no reason to suspect that is untrue.

Either way, Bay won’t hit for a great average (maybe something around the .260-.265 mark) and he won’t be swiping too many more bases than last year.

You’ll have a pretty strong feel for your starting lineup at this stage of the draft, and that should dictate whether you take a gamble on Bay.

If you need speed and can afford to take a hit in the BA department, maybe Drew Stubbs is a better bet. If you want more of a sure thing in the power sweepstakes, Vernon Wells could still be available. If it is batting average you desperately need, maybe Nick Markakis could fill the void.

Bay isn’t a bad choice in this spot, and it’s fair to say he stacks up pretty well with other outfielders being taken in the 12th round.

Ryan Ludwick will put up similar production numbers without the speed and Jason Kubel may be lucky to see 100 games. If you don’t expect 2009 numbers from Bay, you might be pleasantly surprised.

Ike Davis

Despite a great rookie year in NY, Davis is still going undrafted in one in every eight fantasy leagues.

Davis is seen as a 20th-round pick at the minute, between the likes of James Loney and Gabby Sanchez. To be honest, any one of the three would be virtually interchangeable in your team, especially considering you’re only going to be starting him once or twice a week.

Almost half the teams will have their starting second baseman by the end of the second round. Davis is only going to have real value if someone chooses him to be their starter. That will mean that half the teams will also have to have drafted a backup first baseman by the time you grab your first. That’s unlikely.

He will be an adequate backup, but his true value will only be realized if your first choice goes down injured. If you’re looking for a utility bat, Adam Lind serves the role much better.

Carlos Beltran

I won’t be taking a gamble on Beltran, but there’s a good chance that someone will. He’s being drafted in 84 percent of 12-team mixed leagues and some owners out there will take a flier on him and stash him on the bench in case he turns a corner.

If he stays healthy, he’ll be in the everyday lineup and if New York do manage to score runs this year, he’ll have a prime spot in the lineup to do some damage. His knee is an obvious risk and playing time has to be taken into account, but he could be worth a pick in deeper leagues.

You could do a lot worse than 16 homers and 75 RBIs from your 22nd-rounder. If he goes down hurt or downright stinks it up, he’s an easy guy to cut because there is so much depth at the position.

Angel Pagan

Pagan earned his starting job for 2011 and he won the support and respect of a lot of fans for his on-field growth last season. Still, a team-oriented player does not always make a great fantasy acquisition, and unfortunately for Mets fans, that is where Pagan fits in.

There’s no reason to believe he will improve on his 2010 numbers, and if that’s the case you’re buying into a little-pop contact hitter with above-average wheels.

Pagan is going undrafted in 20 percent of leagues this week. In the ones where he is being drafted, he’s going around the 24th round. His .295 average and seven or eight homers just doesn’t get it done for me, especially when we’ve already seen the limit of his upside.

I’d much rather go with Raul Ibanez, take the 15-point batting average hit and run off with 20 or more homers and 90 RBIs.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

One of the most disappointing moments of the Mets’ 2010 season was not having a healthy outfield. Before last season even started, the Mets learned they would be without Carlos Beltran as he underwent knee surgery in January.

They did have Jason Bay, the team’s biggest offseason acquisition, but after not performing for a majority of the season, he went down with a concussion in July and never returned.

Their only constant in the outfield was Angel Pagan who developed into an All-Star caliber ballplayer. This season, the Mets hope to have more certainty in their outfield with the same three guys, although where Beltran and Pagan will play is the big question coming into this spring.

Here is a complete breakdown of what to expect from the outfield trio.

Left Field: Jason Bay         

Age: 32    

Years: 8

Bay had as bad and disappointing a first season with a new team as possible in 2010 with the Mets. The Mets needed a leftfielder entering last season after the 2009 disaster with Daniel Murphy. New York went ahead and gave Bay a hefty contract for four years worth $66 million.

Just like David Wright in 2009, Bay struggled to get adjusted to the dimensions of Citi Field, hitting only three homeruns at home. It looked as if he was always uncomfortable at the plate, showing frustration every time a potential homerun would die at the warning track.

After being a strikeout machine and underperforming throughout the summer, Bay suffered a concussion at Dodger Stadium in late July after banging into the leftfield fence, eventually ending his first season in New York. He played in 95 games batting .259 with only 47 RBI.

Bay has said this offseason that he feels healthy and is past his post-concussion syndrome, and with one season at Citi Field under his belt, there are no excuses to not put up his pre-2010 numbers.

He must cut down on the strikeouts, be more patient and produce in the clutch if he wants to prove to the Mets that his contract wasn’t a bust.

Projected numbers:  .275 AVG, 21 HR, 98 RBI

Center Field: Carlos Beltran         

Age: 33    

Years: 11

About a year ago at this time, Beltran underwent knee surgery that apparently shocked the Mets and their front office. There was plenty of controversy surrounding him getting surgery without the team’s permission and whether or not it would lead to his Mets days being over.

While the Mets were off to a good start to the season without him, there would be an update almost weekly on when exactly he was returning. Immediately after the All-Star break, Beltran returned and was placed in centerfield after speculation of whether he would move to right.

The Mets actually were eight games above .500 in the first half and trailed the Wild Card by only one game. Whether it was coincidence or not, the Mets were never the same after Beltran returned. They lost three-of-four to the eventual World Series champion San Francisco Giants and went 2-9 on their West Coast trip to start the second half of their season.

Beltran didn’t look mobile or effective playing center from his first game at AT&T Park and sometimes looked lost. He would misplay trajectories and run into walls while balls would carom away, looking embarrassed for a once Gold Glove-caliber centerfielder.

This offseason, Mets new manager Terry Collins has said Beltran will most likely move to right field with Pagan moving to center.

Although Beltran wasn’t looking good at his natural position, he did look good at the plate over the final month of the season. In September, he hit .321 with five home runs.

The Mets will have to use all of spring training to decide what would be best for Beltran concerning his outfield position.

If he can hit consistently, play a solid defense where he’s not hurting the team and get some games off to rest, he could be a big help this season. There are a lot of big “ifs” though.

Projected numbers:  .280 AVG, 24 HR, 108 RBI

Right Field: Angel Pagan         

Age: 29    

Years: 5

In his third season with the Mets, Pagan had his best year to-date. He solidified himself as a productive ballplayer, playing good defense, showing speed and hitting for average as well.

Even after hitting .306 the previous season, there was concern as to whether or not Pagan could stay healthy. Injuries had always been a problem for him, but he finally put together an injury-free season and played in a career-high 151 games in 2010.

Maybe the most impressive thing about his season was stealing 37 bases, putting up numbers that compared very closely to those of Jose Reyes. Along with batting .290, he hit 11 home runs and drove in 69 runs. He had more than 30 doubles, seven triples and only committed five errors in the outfield—four of those coming in centerfield interestingly enough.

He played 33 games in right field and didn’t commit a single error, leading you to believe that moving him away from that position may be a negative thing. In center, he always seemed uncomfortable tracking down balls, while he looked like a Gold Glover in right. With a potential move to center for Pagan this season, he will have to work hard at becoming a better all-around outfielder.

This season, some people aren’t buying that he’s going to be consistent at the plate. There’s no reason to think that, and perhaps he can still get better.

Collins has said he will be batting Pagan second in the batting order after Reyes. If Pagan duplicates what he did in 2010 and Reyes performs like he should if he stays healthy, that one-two punch could be the best in baseball.

Projected numbers:  .295 AVG, 12 HR, 75 RBI

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com