Kuzul

Before the 2010 World Series began last night, the common consensus was the San Francisco Giants had to score more to have a chance of winning the World Series.

The Giants pitching staff is excellent, but could they win a slugfest against the offensive prowess of the Texas Rangers?

Game 1 was labeled as an all-time pitching showdown. The matchup between Texas Rangers ace Cliff Lee and the San Francisco Giants two-time defending NL Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum was billed as a classic to be.

However Game 1 was an offensive battle, and the Giants proved they could win a game when they needed to score many more runs than their accustomed to.

With Cliff Lee not able to get the victory for the Rangers in the series opener, how good are the Rangers’ chances to win the title now, against a Giants rotation that continues to impress after Lincecum?

Now we’ll review several important points we learned about Game 1 of the 2010 World Series, as well as some interesting, unknown statistics that may surprise you.

Begin Slideshow

Quick.  When was the last time a Texas team won the World Series?

If almost never was your answer, then you are wrong, baseball breath. Since the World Series started in 1902, teams from Texas have won zip, zero, or zilch.

One WS appearance in 107 years by the state of Texas is listed. Phil Garner’s Astros lost to Ozzie Guillen’s South Siders in 2005. 

Think fast.  When was the last time an African-American manager won the World Series?

Ron Washington hopes to join both lists, and he has a monster of a hitting team to help. 

Back in July, I predicted the Rangers would upset the Yankees.  My Yankees friends laughed.

They ain’t laughing now.  I told them Texas had too much hitting.

The pitching ain’t too bad, either. Cliff Lee’s cut fastball speaks for itself in three different languages: Strikes one, two, and three.

The Giants get home field advantage because the NL All-Stars won the game this year, the first time since Arizona had it in 2001.

Thank manager Joe Girardi for keeping A-Rod on the bench in the All-Star Game. 

Will the first African-American manager in Rangers history deliver their first World Series title?

He will have to go through chilly California to do it.

Christened for the 2000 season, AT&T Park sits on San Francisco Bay at 24 Willie Mays Plaza. China Basin, aka McCovey Cove, is part of the Bay just beyond right field. The ballpark was once one of the largest 802.11b wireless hotspots in the world.

Playing there over the years, Texas is colder than a Frisco Fourth of July; they have yet to win a game in nine tries. They are 0-11 anywhere in Frisco going back to Candlestick Park.

The pitcher-friendly ballpark on the waterfront is prime Frisco real estate, and home runs may be minimalized.

The general description of this matchup is that Texas has plenty pop, while Frisco has plenty pitching.

Which team closes the deal before foreclosure kicks in?

Seven Rangers batted over .300 in the ALCS against the Yankees. That is more than the legendary Gas House Gang, the 1934 St. Louis Cardinals, who had five hitters batting at least .300 for the regular season.

Baseball stingers Michael Young, Josh Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero and Nelson Cruz have their eyes on the ball.

The Giants had four batters over .300 in the NLCS against Philly, including pitcher Jonathan Sanchez, who was one-for-three.

San Francisco’s starters posted a 2.92 earned-run average against the vaunted Phillies. Texas’ starters were at 5.36 against the Yankees.

What about team defense, you ask?

Vlad the Baseball Impaler started 16 regular season outfield games.  Right fielder for Game 1, Guerrero once owned baseball’s most feared field gun. Now is he a liability next to one of the best center fielders in the game?

Defensive insurance was Wash’s forté as Oakland’s third base and infield coach.

Young was a shortstop who made way for Elvis Andrus—a Wash favorite.  Rangers broadcasters questioned Andrus’ ability last season.  No more.  He catalyzes high-scoring Texas on offense and defense.

One could say he eats bases, and base-hits, like Lassie being fed at first.

Wash came to dinner in the ALCS and left with a doggy bag of gourmet wins.

A pennant and an American League championship trophy later, Sidney Poitier should throw out the first WS pitch. Poitier started in the classic Guess Who’s Coming To Dinner? with Katharine Hepburn. Google it.

The Giants defense is suspect, especially behind the plate.  The Rangers should be able to run at will on Lincecum/Posey. But they have to get on base, first, second and last.

Cito Gaston was the last African-American manager to the win the World Series, in 1993.  Ron Washington knows that because I told him in a previous article.

This will be the Bay Area’s first World Series article since Barry Bonds’ squad lost to Anaheim in 2002. San Francisco has gone from a hitting team to a pitching team since he retired.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy starts quirky ace Tim Lincecum tonight in Game 1. Few Ranger have faced Lincecum, whose stuff is filthy.  If someone thinks there is a better fantasy baseball pitcher over the last two seasons, then I say he is delusional.

Lincecum may be the best in real baseball, too.  Fireballer Matt Cain will ably toe the rubber on Thursday night.

Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner are set to start in Arlington.  I would have started Sanchez in Game 2. He pitched a no-hitter at AT&T Park in July 2009. 

Texas owns the road this postseason, and they also shined at home after the first game of the ALCS.

Lee, CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis are the probable starters for the Rangers.

Will Lee humiliate Giants hitters?

I have been a hit with my bold predictions, and this one is no different.

Prediction: Hamilton will help Wash attain managerial glory by hammering Frisco’s right field wall.  Arlington, near Dallas, experienced flooding this year.  McCovey Cove will flood with baseballs fired off the Rangers bats.  Texas wins 4-2.

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It was unclear which starter would go in game three for the Yankees after the ace they courted in a trade earlier this year jilted them again with yet another magnificent playoff performance.

The worst shut out home loss in Yankee history came during a start for their left hander who is the most prolific winners in MLB playoff history: Andy Pettitte.

The opposing lefty laced them with cut fastballs and knuckle curves while taking a two-run lead into the top of the ninth.

His curve broke out of the strike zone and nibbled just off the plate all night.

The dieting-on-hits New Yorkers tried to snack on his cut fastball, but it was the Rangers’ lefty who ate their gosh darned snack.

Throwing several change ups for easy outs, it was very hard to diagnose his delivery, and his change up was dissecting the corners.

No reason for him to risk injury in the bottom of the ninth with the game in hand.

The Rangers scored six runs in the top of the inning.

Yankee Stadium all but emptied after the fourth run scored.  The bleeding finally stopped after the normally rock-steady New York bull pen had fully collapsed in the Bronx.

Dave Robertson who has dealt with back problems had trouble dealing his pitches, and he could not get any out. 

Neftali Feliz closed the ninth inning without a whimper from the Yankees, and the Rangers took the lead in the three game series.

In the fourth game tomorrow night, Tommy Hunter will start for Texas. He started the season on the disabled list and pitched well for the Rangers this season.

He won 13 games and lost only four and had a 3.73 ERA.

The Yankees batted .300 against him in one five-inning start this season.  He struck out eight, but left the game with no decision.

Speculation is that AJ Burnett will start, but he may end up riding the bench in favor of CC Sabathia who only pitched four innings in the first game of the series.

Burnett has struggled almost all year, and notably more so after the All-Star Break.  It was like he was a totally transformed pitcher than the one who helped win the 2009 World Series.

Texas slugged a team batting average of only .233 against Burnett this year.  He finished 10-15 with a 5.7 earned run average for the season.

Sabathia has had some outstanding playoff performances on three day’s rest.  He has a 2.40 earned run average in seven post season starts off three day’s rest.

He is accustomed to being the ace down the stretch carrying the team to glory.  He did it with Cleveland, Milwaukee, and with the Yankees.

During the press conference after the game, manager Joe Girardi looked confident in saying his team’s chances were good to bring home a playoff victory behind Burnett.

There is no hiding in baseball, and AJ is too big to stuff in a club house closet.  What difference does it make if he gets beat in the fourth game or in the fifth game?

Start him against the mighty Rangers.

Cliff Lee gave up two hits, and he had 13 strike outs and one walk in eight innings.

A total of 34 strike outs and one walk in three post season starts for Lee this year.

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One of the MLB’s all-time greats is walking away from the game.

Braves’ LHP Billy Wagner, 39, officially confirmed his retirement from Major League Baseball this week. Wagner’s MLB career came to a close prematurely when he suffered a left oblique injury in the NLDS while fielding a bunt by Giants’ SS Edgar Renteria, then re-aggravated it on the very next batter and was forced to leave the game. Wagner received two injections on October 10th, telling doctors that he wanted to try to return, and that he “didn’t care about the long-term affects.”

He tried to throw on Sunday, but was unable do so without significant pain, and was placed on the 15-Day DL—a stint that may not only end his season, but his career. The belief was that he’d return if the Braves could advance to the World Series—which, as we know, simply wasn’t in the cards. Ultimately, Wagner walks—limps, rather—into retirement from the game alongside his manager, Bobby Cox.

Wagner turns in a fantastic 1.43 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 104/22 K/BB ratio over 69 1/3 innings during the regular season, successfully shutting the door on 37-of-44 save opportunities. As his stats indicate, as well as his presence on the mound, the flamethrower could’ve remained a dominant closer for a few more seasons.

I don’t blame him for leaving, though—a 162-game schedule attacks your body, not to mention being away from home and your family/wife/kids. As of right now, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Takashi Saito and LHP Johnny Venters will compete to assume the position for 2011, and the $7M freed up will allow the Braves to improve in other areas of their game.

Wagner had always been one of my favorite pitchers growing up, so I thought I’d take a look at what he’s accomplished in baseball. He shared a similar body frame as I did (he’s 5’10″, 180-pounds), and watching him throw smoke had me dying to become a fearless, challenging, hard-throwing closer too.

I began researching him, and the first thing that jumped at me was that he’s a *natural* right-handed pitcher, but only started throwing southpaw after breaking his arm twice in accidents. He taught himself to throw lefty by throwing thousands of balls against the wall of a barn, and then fielding the rebounds, rinse and repeat.

As I started watching the MLB as a baseball enthusiast, rather than just as a fan cheering for a team, I realized how rare a talent such as Wagner was. A dominant lefty-closer who was capable throwing a baseball 100 mph, plus a nasty slider, mixed with how hard (not the velocity—call it torque, if you will) was, and still is, a rare commodity. And it was his sheer, utter dominance that made him one of the greatest of all-time.

Among all the pitchers in baseball history with at least 800 career innings, Wagner has the highest strikeout rate. Not bad company, either:

K/9 IP

Billy Wagner: 11.92
Randy Johnson: 10.61
Kerry Wood: 10.35
Pedro Martinez: 10.04
Nolan Ryan: 9.55

Wagner is also the all-time leader in adjusted ERA+ among all lefty relievers with at least 800 innings, and ranks second in all-time adjusted ERA behind another closer who I hear is pretty good:

LHP’s ERA+

Billy Wagner: 187
John Franco: 138
John Hiller: 134
Sparky Lyle: 128
Jesse Orosco: 126

All-time ERA+

Mariano Rivera: 204
Billy Wagner: 187
Hoyt Wilhelm: 147
Dan Quisenberry: 147
Trevor Hoffman: 141

While many people will be critical of his postseason failures and locker-room character (particularly with the Phillies), there’s no denying what he’s accomplished on the mound. Of all the impressive stats accumulated over the years, his most impressive might be the 422 saves he leaves behind, good for (an underrated) fifth on the all-time list, just two shy of Mets’ legend John Franco.

Simply put, he’s the greatest left-handed reliever of all time. He sports the highest strikeout rate of all-time, the best adjusted ERA ever by a lefty reliever, the fewest hits per nine innings of all-time and the second-best ERA+ among all relievers behind only Mariano Rivera.

The seven-time All-Star and 1999 NL Rolaids Relief Man of the Year leaves after 15 seasons, but it simply doesn’t do justice to just how badass he was. He’s the perfect combination of a lumberjack and a pirate. He eats beef jerky for breakfast. He flosses with shards of bats he’s broken. He’s essentially baseball’s version of Chuck Norris. Also, he had a wicked-awesome beard.

Wagner did not end his career the way many athletes envision themselves retiring—by limping off the field. My hope is that once the World Series hype dies down this winter, we can really begin to look at what a marvel Billy Wagner was. He remains one of the few pitchers in the history of sports to remain dominant throughout their career, and his statistics—first-ballot Hall of Fame worthy, mind you—truly speak volumes about how dominant and consistent he’s been throughout his career.

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“Six-and-a-half games back and not playing very well in a season we thought we ought to be in contention.  I think we were losing ground with the field,” Ranger managing general partner George W. Bush said in June of 1992 upon firing his manager.

The manager?  None other than Bobby Valentine, a baseball man with nearly four decades of baseball experience sorely needed in the dullard Seattle Mariner organization, made famous for its uncanny ability to create 100-loss seasons regardless of the payroll or who is running it.  Valentine has the personality horsepower needed to confront a dogmatic front office that Mariner fans are ready to run out of town amidst a mob of ropes and flaming torches.

The Texas Rangers were 46-41 at the time of the firing, and were in third place in the division, 5.5 behind first-place Minnesota in the days of dual divisions in each league.   Valentine then in his 25th baseball season at the age of 41, his eighth with the Rangers,  he had been the third-longest tenured manager in the major leagues behind only baseball icons Tommy Lasorda of the Dodgers and Sparky Anderson of the Detroit Tigers.  Bobby Valentine had been the youngest manager in the major leagues when offered the job on May 16, 1985.  A former Dodger, he had long been a favorite of Lasorda and once was thought to be his heir apparent as manager of the Dodgers.  

Almost a decade later on a different team, Valentine was again fired, but this time following a tumultuous and controversial summer of 2002 in New York.  The Mets finished with a 75-86 record in spite of their $102 million payroll, in last place in the NL East for the first time since 1993 and below .500 for the first time in six years.  It had been a mere two years after Valentine had led them to the first Subway Series in four decades.

Many felt Valentine had taken the fall for then knucklehead general-manager Steve Phillips.  Valentine left with an overall record of 536-467, reaching the playoffs in 1999 and 2000.  But in late-season 2002 came one of the worst months in team history with a 12-game losing streak where the Mets didn’t win a game at Shea Stadium in August, during a NL-record 15-game home losing streak.

Earlier that summer Mets part owner Fred Wilpon issued several dreaded “votes of confidence,” but by mid September was fed up with underperforming players, seven of whom Newsweek magazine had claimed were caught smoking marijuana and goofing off.  “The team just did not respond to the manager,” Wilpon explained at a packed news conference after the fact.  “Whatever grip Bobby had on the team was gone by the end of the season.”

Sports pundits ripped the move.  Ian O’Conner of USA Today wrote a scathing column insisting the Mets had fired the wrong guy, and that the Mets “should’ve fired his loser of a general manager, Steve Phillips.”  Phillips had embarrassed Valentine by refusing to allow him to attend the winter meetings and embarrassed the franchise with rumors of an extramarital affair with a subordinate.”

Valentine himself said, “I told Fred that that he had to give the next manager authority in the clubhouse and on the field, that he had to get Steve off the field and out of the clubhouse.  You can’t let a GM high-five guys and joke around after a win and then after a loss act like it’s the end of the world. Get him out of there for the sake of the next guy.”

Sobering words for Mariner fans, given that current Mariners manager Jack Zduriencik spent a large part of July and August this past summer hobnobbing in the dugout with Mariner icons while “evaluating” soon-to-be fired manager Don Wakamatsu, claiming that Wak too had “lost control of the team.”   

Mariner fans responded in ways not seen before.  Fed up with a perceived meddling by an incompetent front office, radio talk shows and newspaper comments were bombarded with scathing rebukes of long-time Mariner management figures Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln.  Fans weren’t buying management’s latest line about “needing change, ” considering the next hire will be the team’s seventh manager since Lou Pinella left in 2002.

If this franchise was a horse, it would have been shot two decades ago.

The Seattle Mariners are in dire need of a manager like the only successful manager in team history: Lou Pinella.  Unlike his predecessors, Pinella routinely had shouting matches with owners who felt they knew baseball better than he did.  Pinella had no problem getting in the face of decision-makers and publicly scolding them for failed or non-existent moves.  Valentine is a guy who shares this trait.

Whatever the real story in the clubhouse as Mets manager, off the field Valentine had been a force for compassion following the unsettling attacks at 9/11.  People close to the manager felt his unyielding commitment to the families of victims put things in perspective for Valentine, and perhaps made sports far less important.  Gone was the focus, some claimed, which led to apathy towards superstar tantrums during his last season in New York.

He has held various jobs in baseball other than his managing stints.  Following his departure from Texas, early in January 1993 Valentine was hired by the Cincinnati Reds to be an advance scout that included consulting player personnel and watching talent on other teams during spring training. 

Also spending part of the last decade in Japan managing the Chiba Lotte Marines, Valentine was soon headed back to the United States for reasons other than on-the-field success.  Making somewhere around $3.9 million a year, he priced himself out of the market and was told by Marines management that the club would not be able to afford him after the 2009 season, regardless of how many games his team wins.  Thus he returned to commentating on ESPN this past season.

Valentine’s players may have been chided for misbehaving, but he too has been known to be part of on-field mishaps and mayhem.  In December of 1998 he admitted he made a “bad guess” when he speculated why Todd Hundley blamed him for being replaced by Mike Piazza.  Hundley felt Valentine had it in for him, but Valentine blew it off saying, “It’s an Italian thing.  He thinks that I would do something because he’s not Italian or because I am Italian.  I think that’s ridiculous.”

And then who can forget the infamous if not somewhat humorous two-game ban and $5,000 fine in June of 1999?  While Met manager, Valentine returned to the dugout during a game versus Toronto donning a fake mustache and glasses after being ejected from a game against the Blue Jays.

He might need that humor if hired in Seattle, since this is only one of three organizations that have never played in a World Series.  But clearly Valentine would hold the most baseball experience of anyone in the organization.  On a team in Seattle with cranky fans still living in memories of the past, hiring Bobby Valentine should be a no-brainer.

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Through history, many players have entered baseball’s most hallowed hall. The list of players is numerous: 54 starting pitchers, 16 catchers, 18 first basemen, 17 second basemen, 10 third basemen, 21 shortstops, and 60 outfielders have plaques in the Hall of Fame. Even nine umpires have gained entrance to Cooperstown.

Some claim third base, or even catcher, is the most underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame.

However, only five relief pitchers have ever been elected: Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Bruce Sutter, Dennis Eckersley, and Goose Gossage.

With reliance on the bullpen growing in modern times, that number appears set to rise in the next 15 years.

But by how much? And who is deserving of mention among the all-time greats?

After all, there’s a reason only four such players have been elected.

IN

Mariano Rivera

The first reliever who deserves mention is the only one who seems to be an absolute lock for Cooperstown.

Since becoming the full-time closer in 1996, the Panamanian righty has dominated hitters consistently. His 206 ERA+ is the all-time record, and his 2.21 ERA and 1.002 WHIP are tops among active pitchers. Mariano is an 11-time All-Star, five-time World Series champ, and has placed in the top three of Cy Young Award voting three times.

By throwing his cutter almost exclusively, Mariano has blown away hitters to the tune of 553 saves, good for second all time.

In conclusion, Mariano Rivera has all the qualifications for a Hall of Fame reliever: a devastating pitch, an extended period of dominance, and solid playoff performance.

He has a very strong case for greatest reliever of all time, and he has a spot in Cooperstown already waiting for him.

Trevor Hoffman

The other relief pitcher who has a good chance at the hall is Trevor Hoffman. Being the all-time leader in saves and games finished helps.

However, Hoffman isn’t the lock for Cooperstown that Mariano is. Despite sitting on the precipice of 600 saves, Hoffman has Rivera breathing down his neck. By the time he is eligible for Cooperstown, Hoffman could have very well fallen to second on the all-time list.

Unlike Rivera, Hoffman does not have a career long record of dominance – rather, he has two shorter stretches, from 1994-02, and from 2004-09. And Hoffman has never been as dominant as Rivera. He’s only posted an ERA under 2.00 once, while Rivera is on his way to his tenth such season. Hoffman has also only posted a WHIP under 1.000 six times, while Rivera is on his way to an eighth.

I’m not saying Hoffman will be kept out of the Hall, but Lee Smith, known for having been the all-time saves leader before Hoffman, has been kept out.

Hoffman also doesn’t have the playoff success of Rivera. In 12 postseason games, Hoffman has an ERA of 3.46, and a WHIP of 1.231.

Billy Wagner

When talking about active closers, the conversation often ends at Rivera and Hoffman.

However, Billy Wagner, who may be the greatest left-handed reliever of all time, doesn’t get the credit he deserves.

Wagner has two of the three qualifications: a long dominant stretch, from 1999-05, and has a sizzling fastball that has reached 100 mph.

Perhaps the reason Wagner is so underrated is because he is so humble. Recently, after breaking Jesse Orosco’s record for strikeouts by a left-handed reliever, Wagner called the record “stupid”.

“I said ‘We’re getting our (butts) kicked, it’s raining, let’s go,’ ” Wagner said . “It’s stupid. Who in their right mind makes a big deal out of doing something they’re supposed to do in the first place? I’m out there pitching in a (bad) game; we’re getting our butt kicked. It’s not worth it to make a big deal out of that. That’s embarrassing.”

Perhaps it’s his small stature. Despite being listed as 5’11”, Wagner still intimidates opposing hitters when he comes out to the tune of Metallica’s “Enter Sandman”.

During his most dominant stretch from 1999-05, Wagner had just one full season with a WHIP higher than 1.000, and he led the league in games finished twice. Over that span, he had an ERA+ of 196, culminating in a 293 ERA+ in 2005.

OUT (for now)

Joe Nathan

Just six months ago, I would have told you that Joe Nathan was paving his way to a spot in Cooperstown.

Since then, he’s gone down for the season, and has gone from possibly the best closer in baseball to someone who started too late. After starting his career as a starter for the Giants, Nathan came to Minnesota by trade and started his career as a closer at age 29, far later than any closer in Cooperstown.

Since then, Nathan has been a rock, being as lights out as anyone in the game. His 2008 season is one of the best ever, as evidenced by his 316 ERA+, and WHIP of .901. If he had enough innings to qualify, Nathan would be second in ERA, ERA+, and third in WHIP, behind only Rivera and Hoffman.

However, after his season-ending injury, we have to wonder if Nathan will get those innings, or if he will come back as good as before. At his best, Nathan is one of the top closers of the last 15 years. If he can come back from injury like Trevor Hoffman did in 2004, his outlook looks good.

Jonathan Papelbon

At the young age of 29, Jonathan Papelbon has put together what may be one of the greatest five year stretches in baseball history.

It started with what may be the most underrated rookie season ever. In 2006, Papelbon blew away hitters, to the tune of a 0.92 ERA and .776 WHIP, giving him a simply unreal 517 ERA+. He gave up 0.4 HR/9. Despite this, he finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, behind Justin Verlander.

The next year, although his ERA doubled to 1.85, Papelbon managed to lower his WHIP, to 0.771. Since then, Papelbon has been lights out. In 2010, he’s posting his highest ERA, at just 2.91, but that doesn’t diminish a career WHIP under 1.000, an ERA of 2.01, and an ERA+ higher than Mariano Rivera’s.

Francisco Rodriguez

Despite being known mainly for breaking the single-season saves record in 2008, Francisco Rodriguez is also one of baseball’s premier closers. 

Although he is just shy of dominant, Rodriguez is very consistent. From 2004-08, his ERA fluctuated around 2.20, and his WHIP hovered near 1.100. Although some people see Rodriguez as overrated for his 2008 season, he should be looked at as a strong, solid closer, who has an outside shot at Cooperstown, especially if he experiences further playoff success. 

Keep An Eye On: Heath Bell, Brian Wilson, Huston Street, Carlos Marmol, Jonathan Broxton

Too Early to Tell: Joakim Soria, Andrew Bailey, Neftali Feliz

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