Kuzul

When thinking of pitching rotations with a lot of depth, the Phillies, Red Sox and Giants are—rightfully so—the first teams to come to mind. However, one could argue that the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation is underrated and belongs in that discussion.

The biggest distinction between the Dodgers and the other three teams may be the perceived lack of a true ace. We all know that the Phillies have two premier aces in Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, the Sox have Jon Lester, and the Giants have Tim Lincecum, but the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw has not yet achieved that true “ace” perception.

Is it time he should?

There is no doubt that Kershaw is an elite strikeout pitcher. In his first two full seasons, he struck out well over a batter per inning. His ability to miss that many bats (combined with a nice home ballpark for pitchers) has also helped him post an ERA under three in both seasons.  

Kershaw’s strikeout ability has even helped him post WHIP’s of 1.23 and 1.18 despite his habit of issuing walks. Where the walks have hurt his roto numbers is in the wins category. Obviously, walks lead to high pitch counts, and high pitch counts lead to early exits from the mound. As a result, Kershaw averaged only 5.2 innings per start in 2009 (eight wins) and 6.1 innings per start in 2010 (13 wins).  

As you can see, Kershaw won more games while pitching deeper into games last season, indicative of the significant drop in his walk rate. If the young pitcher continues to improve (as he should), he may be considered a no-doubt, top-ten, fantasy pitching ace by the All-Star break.  

Just in case he takes a turn away from becoming a Lester/Lincecum type towards being a Jonathan Sanchez type, I am heading into the season slightly cautious with Kershaw just outside my top-ten pitchers at no. 13.

The second starter in LA is also a guy who is probably underrated. Chad Billingsley was very impressive in 2008—his first full season as a starter—when he won 16 games with an ERA of 3.14 while posting a 9.01 K/9.  

Chad then “disappointed” in 2009 (12 W, 4.03 ERA, 8.21 K/9) and 2008 (12 W, 3.57 ERA, 8.03 K/9). However, he showed some positive signs last year by cutting down on the walks issued and having a FIP of 3.07.  

Maybe Billingsley’s first year was a bit of an overachievement, but you should not let what he was color your evaluation of what he now is.

This a guy that seems pretty sure to win at least 12 games, have an ERA in the mid-threes, keep the WHIP at or under 1.30, and be a very nice strikeout-producer. In my estimation, that type of certainty makes him a definite top-30 and borderline top-25 pitcher. It is likely he will be drafted a little lower than that and could be a very nice value on draft day.

Ted Lilly is another LA pitcher of whom you can know what to expect. From 2004-2006, Lilly struggled with his control, walking over four batters per nine innings in each of those years. However, Lilly seems to have found his command in the National League as he walked only 2.3 batters per nine innings over the last four seasons. Thanks to that, Lilly has become an excellent source of WHIP help for the fantasy baseball player with WHIP’s of 1.14, 1.23, 1.06, and 1.08. Combined with four straight K/9’s over 7.50, all these numbers make Lilly a reliable, top-40 starting pitcher.

The next guy in line for the Dodgers is another who may be underrated. In two and a half seasons (he missed time in 2009 due to an injury), Hiroki Kuroda has had a cumulative 3.60 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He is not a huge contributor in the K’s category, but he should chip in a K/9 somewhere between six and seven. Because he is a little older (36) and because he spent the majority of his career playing in Japan, Kuroda is not a very sexy option who is likely to be undervalued in many drafts. I would recommend treating Kuroda as a top-50 pitcher because he is a safe bet to help and not hurt in every category.

After the four guys who are usable in mixed leagues, Jon Garland is a pretty decent fifth starter who should be a decent NL-only play.  He is a solid innings-eater who consistently produces a four-ish ERA. He does not contribute much in the strikeout department and has the potential to be a bit of a WHIP liability, but Garland is still a reliable contributor for deeper leagues.

[Original Article Location]

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for http://www.thefantasyfix.com

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Read More of Brett’s National League West Previews:

Mat Latos & the San Diego Padres

Daniel Hudson & the Arizona Diamondbacks

Ubaldo Jimenez & the Colorado Rockies

2011 Fantasy Baseball Great Debate: Mark Teixeira vs. Adrian Gonzalez

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been busy this offseason, locking up several players already and in the hunt for even more.

General manager Ned Colletti has been aggressive following a disappointing fourth-place finish for the Dodgers in the NL West. The team, picked by many to win the division, managed only an 80-82 record and was never really in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Colletti is determined to change that, building a roster around young studs Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier.

But will the new additions be enough to vault the Dodgers past the defending world champions, the San Francisco Giants?

Here’s an early look at what the Dodgers have done so far and a grade for each of their moves. 

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The Texas Rangers and the San Francisco Giants have just finished the World Series of the underdogs, and the anticipation for baseball season is already growing. There is a lot of star power on the free agent market this year, and many analysts are already making bold predictions about next season.

Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Derek Lee, and Jayson Werth are just a few of the names on the free agent lists. Where will they go? Who will sign them? How much money will they sign for? 

I will be addressing 10 of the biggest offseason rumors for the MLB, and whether they are fact or fiction.

Without any further ado, here we go with Fact Vs. Fiction For 10 Talked About Offseason Rumors.

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Is anyone else a little skeptical of one of the latest releases on the Dodgers’ website? According to General Manager Ned Colletti, the Dodgers are actually planning on increasing the $93 million payroll from 2010.

The Dodgers still have seven players eligible for free agency (not counting the recently signed Lilly or retiring Ausmus). While it is understandable the Dodgers would like to bring back players like Vicente Padilla, Rod Barajas and Scott Podsednik, the looming ownership divorce is the Debbie Downer in the organization.

The article, written by MLB.com writer Ken Gurnick, outlines the Dodgers’ needs based on observations from Colletti, and it is a pretty tall order.

Starting pitching is obviously tops on the GM’s list. He plans to resign at least one of the two remaining starters from 2010, either Vicente Padilla or the more expensive Hiroki Kuroda. Those two pitchers combined for over $20M last season, a very large portion of the payroll.

A power bat, some solid infield defense or position players, and a relief pitcher have also been mentioned. 

If Frank McCourt were to settle and hand Jamie a very large compensatory check, where would this money come from? Frank has said repeatedly he plans to keep the team, and the Dodgers are not for sale.

Something just isn’t adding up here. The Dodgers were largely silent at the trade deadline this year, acquiring a solid pitcher and second baseman that fit into 2011 rather than a playoff run. Other than that, the Dodgers were bystanders, and there seems to be no significant changes to justify change. 

With the revelations of botched documents and secrets, one can only imagine what Ned Colletti is talking about.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

No matter what happens during the 2010 Major League Playoffs, the Yankees will immediately get to work in the offseason to either win a third straight title or try to get back on top after a one year hiatus.

One free agent target most everyone in the industry agrees the Yankees will get their hands on is current Rangers ace Cliff Lee. Lee has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past three seasons and is bolstering his playoff resume with each gem he twirls in October.

In game one of the American Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays, Lee pitched one of the best games in his career, striking out 10 in a crucial match-up with Rays ace David Price. The Rangers knew if they could win game one then they would have a great chance of winning the series and Lee made sure that was taken care of.

For the Yankees to obtain Lee’s services they better come prepared with a blank check and a willingness to outspend every other team. It has been rumored that Lee prefers to pitch in the Bronx, joining up with his old Indians teammate CC Sabathia, but he will not take a discount to do so.

Another target of the Bombers can be a person who currently plays in the Far East and his name is Yu Darvish. Not much is know about Darvish, but he possesses four quality pitchers to go along with his mid-90s fastball. Darvish is not a free agent meaning he will require the posting fee, ala Matsuzaka, but unlike his predecessor, he may be worth the money.

The Yankees don’t seemingly need anyone to fill out their outfield as all spots are currently occupied. Nick Swisher is signed on for another two seasons, Curtis Granderson, who looked like he would be run out of town, is swinging a hot bat and Brett Gardner surprised many with his breakout season.

However, the Yankees are the Yankees and a run for Carl Crawford is not out of the question. Gardner faded fast down the stretch after a hot start while Granderson is a new man after some mechanical adjustments. 

If the Yankees were to sign Crawford, Gardner would be displaced to the fourth outfielder spot where he is best suited and would give the Yankees a very strong defensive outfield. To make it clear, the Yankees don’t need Crawford, but signing him would make the lineup just that much stronger.

Besides throwing their hat in the ring for Darvish’s and Lee’s services, the Yankees still have a need in the rotation. A.J. Burnett is not quite doing the job in New York and Andy Pettitte will most likely retire, leading to voids in the rotation. The Yankees would be best served looking for rotation fillers such as Hiroki Kuroda or a Jon Garland. 

Both of these pitchers have the capability of eating up innings while keeping their teams in every game. It is something that neither A.J. Burnett nor Javier Vazquez can seem to master. For the Yankees to continue to try to make a modern day dynasty, they need more pitching.

As the old adage states, you can never have enough pitching.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The big story of this Yankee season has been the starting pitching, so it is no coincidence that this list has only four batters included.

The Yankees have had disastrous seasons for how much they are paying both AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez.

So it is without question that the Yankees need to address the top five arms on the squad and shore up their rotation when it comes time to make their offers to free agents this winter.

Without further ado, here are the 10 players that New York should take a run at this winter.

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Though it appears that the Mariners will go into the 2011 season with a static or decreased payroll compared to 2010, there has been a widely-accepted theory that their budgetary constraints are less strict when it comes to signing Japanese players.

Some of this may have changed when Hiroshi Yamauchi sold his shares of the Mariners in 2004, as the team hasn’t gone to extravagant lengths to sign a Japanese player since signing Ichiro in 2001, and hasn’t signed a Japanese player at all since signing Kenji Johjima in 2006.

However, Yu Darvish is a different kind of talent, and ultimately a different kind of opportunity than signing Johjima was.

It’s not often that Major League clubs have a crack at signing top-level talent from Japan in their early-20s. Last year we saw Junichi Tazawa pitch with the Red Sox, but he was eligible for free agency after asking for, and ultimately receiving a pass from all the teams in the NPB in their amateur draft. In late 2008, he signed a three-year, $3 million deal with the Red Sox.

Tazawa had pitched in the Industrial league in Japan, something akin to the independent leagues in America, and at 22 years old he started his American professional baseball career pitching in Double-A.

At 22 years old (almost 23) Kazuhito Tadano signed with the Cleveland Indians in 2003. Tadano entered the American scene under extremely different circumstances than Tazawa. Rather than requesting that no Japanese team drafted him Tadano went undrafted against his will, with his participation in a pornographic video during his college years as the main culprit for his being overlooked.

Tadano signed for $67,000, with a shoulder injury and the aforementioned sex tape as the driving force behind the bargain price. Tadano is playing in Japan now, though he’s posted two ugly seasons for the Nippon Ham Fighters.

Perhaps the best parallel for Darvish, unsurprisingly, is Daisuke Matsuzaka. Matsuzaka  left Japan after his age 25 season, and after an enormous $51.1 million posting fee that the Red Sox paid to the Seibu Lions, they then inked Matsuzaka to a six-year, $52-60 million contract (the latter is with full incentives reached).

Matsuzaka had been utterly dominant in the four seasons that led to his posting, with ERA’s under three and more than a strikeout per inning.

Matsuzaka also impressed in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, pitching against many big leaguers along the way.

However, Matsuzaka’s career in the bigs has been tumultuous to say the least. After not averaging more than three walks per nine innings in the five seasons that led to his transfer stateside, Matsuzaka hasn’t averaged less than three walks per nine innings in a single season in the majors.

Despite no apparent decrease in fastball velocity or command (compared to league average), Matsuzaka has seen his strikeout rate decrease every season since signing with the Red Sox.

One of the problems that Matsuzaka has faced is the apparent variance in strike zone in the majors compared to the Japanese game. The consensus is that the strike zone in Japan is bigger than it is stateside, and that while Matsuzaka made a living pitching on the “corners” in Japan, many of the pitches he’d thrown for called strikes in Japan were called balls in the Major Leagues.

Matsuzaka’s variety of offspeed pitches and corner nibbling style have led to inflated pitch counts, deflated innings counts, and an overall deflated performance in the majors.

Darvish possesses a similar skill set: A low-90s fastball that can reach the mid-90s, several offspeed pitches, and precision command. However, this plot may tell a different story.

It appears that Darvish is willing to challenge hitters with his fastball in the strike zone, and gets groundball outs doing so. However, quite frequently, Darvish threw offspeed pitches for balls in early counts, a main contributor to Matsuzaka’s limited success.

So with this in mind, is there any reason to believe that Darvish will have any more success in the bigs than Matsuzaka?

Age works in Darvish’s favor, as he’ll be entering his age 24 season if he enters MLB next season. Also, Matsuzaka’s enormous price tag may have worked to drive the total asking price for Darvish way down.

While a struggling economy has driven overall free agent dollars down in recent years, many Japan-America transitions have been billed almost completely on past precedent. If teams are worried about a Matsuzaka-like decline after a transition stateside, Darvish may not be as highly sought after Matsuzaka was.

There is speculation that Darvish’s posting fee will be $25 million, and that he’ll seek a five-year deal in America.

More recently than Matsuzaka, Hiroki Kuroda was a top-level Japanese pitcher who brought his services stateside. He was a free agent after spending 10 seasons in Japan (nine seasons in Japan are required before outright free agency is granted). Kuroda signed a three-year, $35.3 million contract.

A $12 million salary over five years would put an expected total price tag of $85 million on Darvish. That would equal the $17 million per season, pre-incentive total for Matsuzaka. However, in some ways using Kuroda’s salary as a model for Darvish’s eventual price tag is a flawed endeavor.

Kuroda was a free agent, which meant that he could hold his own bidding war. While that likely drove his price up, he signed his contract with the Dodgers in 2007, a year before the major signs of economic recession set in.

Kuroda also never dominated NPB like Darvish has. Kuroda was a pitch-to-contact pitcher who had several productive seasons, but only one truly outstanding season (2006). And he was 32 years old when he entered the majors.

By contrast, Darvish is coming off his fourth straight season with an ERA under two, his third season in the last four where he struck out a batter per inning or more, and may be coming off his best season in NPB. He’ll be 24 years old for most of next season, and has been on prospect radar’s since he began his domination of the league in 2007, when he was 20 years old.

However, most heavily contrasting to Kuroda’s situation, Darvish will only be allowed to negotiate a contract with the team that wins the right by bidding highest on his posting.

The Mariners best shot at Darvish is if the bidding war for his posting becomes a battle of attrition. We recently saw Stephen Strasburg, perhaps the greatest pitching prospect of all time, see his contract expectations dip from an insane $50 million, and ultimately end up at a little over $15 million.

There’s no chance that the Mariners, or any other team for that matter, get Darvish for less than the $15 Million that Strasburg received. His posting fee alone, even if it comes in below the expected $25 million figure, will likely surpass Strasburg’s contract.

Also, Darvish made the equivalent to about $4 million in Japan this season, so in order to get Darvish into a Major League uniform, an MLB team would certainly have to give him a pretty hefty increase on that number.

But the increase comes with a sample set of over 1,000 innings of production against high-level competition to justify it.

In financially-cautious time for baseball, teams are even more likely to include the posting fee in total cost analysis of a player. So if we use $25 million as the posting fee, and an $8 million salary as a model, a five-year contract with the posting fee would come in at $65 million over five years.

In this scenario, the signing team would commit essentially $13 million per season to Darvish, and have an additional year of team control after the contract was completed, meaning they’d have a full year to negotiate a second contract or engineer a trade while Darvish played under his final year of arbitration. Darvish could hit free agency at age 30.

If we use Matsuzaka’s success in the majors as a midline, it’s pretty easy to justify $65 million for Darvish over five years. Despite his struggles, according to Fangraphs, Matsuzaka has been worth $42.9 million in four seasons in the big leagues. If we use his strike-throwing counterpart Kuroda as a moderate ceiling, things look even brighter, as Kuroda has been worth $42.4 million in three seasons.

If the price is right, Darvish is a special talent, and the second-best pitcher available this offseason (behind Cliff Lee, and excluding possible trades). However, if the price tag on Darvish reaches “Matsuzaka money,” the Mariners are better off spending their money elsewhere.

If the Mariners are truly a team that values long-term process over immediate results, then pursuing, and potentially signing Darvish is simply a matter of dollars and sense.

Other Fixing the 2011 Seattle Mariners profiles:

Ted Lilly, Ramon Hernandez, Michael Saunders, Colby Rasmus, Adam Dunn, Chone Figgins, Dustin Ackley, Felipe Lopez, Willy Aybar, Jack/Josh Wilson

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Unless something dramatic occurs at the McCourt divorce trial, it’s very safe to say that Frank McCourt will maintain control of the Los Angeles Dodgers heading into 2011. Even if Jamie finds herself on the winning end of Judge Scott Gordon’s decision, it’s quite possible that the appeals process could take up to several years, which would leave Frank in control indefinitely.

With Frank as chairman, the budget structure is likely to be similar to what the Dodgers utilized this year. It could be slightly less if Frank intends to make some type of an effort to reverse the overwhelming debt that he and his wife have brought onto the club over the past five years.

In the offseason, General Manager Ned Colletti will be faced with a number of very difficult decisions. Outside of the number of players who are eligible for arbitration, it’s conceivable that Colletti may be willing to deal several players to address numerous needs if the team does indeed have any shot at improving.

The trade market this winter may be difficult for Los Angeles, as a handful of Dodgers players may have seen their trade values drop as a result of poor performances in 2010. Colletti will be the chief orchestrator of putting together the squad for next year, and it will be no easy task considering the free-agent market is about the slimmest it’s been in recent past. If there’s no value in potential trades, the free-agent market could be the best option to improve, but payroll dollars will need to be freed up first to make any big market acquisitions possible.

In order to create the dollars to spend, the Dodgers will need to say farewell to at least a few players, whether it be by non-tendering a player, trading a player, or losing in arbitration.

The following slides show seven players Los Angeles may decide to move before the beginning of next year, and explain why these particular moves would be beneficial for the Dodgers moving forward.  

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Amidst a failing 2010 campaign, a messy divorce between owners, and uncertainty regarding funds for next season, the Los Angeles Dodgers have several key players that will be eligible for free agency next season.

Dodgers General Manager Ned Colletti has said that, given a likely lack of funds stemming from the McCourt divorce, he is uncertain regarding the approaching free agency period.

Given the circumstances, here are possible outcomes for all of the possible 2011 Dodgers free agents.

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Losing two out of three in Denver after winning four in a row has left the Los Angeles Dodgers in disbelief and dismay. Starting pitcher Ted Lilly appeared to have been shaken by recently being placed on waivers, and Sunday’s game may have been a clear foreshadowing for upcoming events.

Virtually all players on the Dodgers‘ roster set to be free agents next season have been placed on waivers. The benefit to the process for a team on the bubble is flexibility as it pertains to the remainder of this season and the upcoming offseason. 

Los Angeles can sit on the fence with their soon-to-be free agents, feeling out the rest of the league to discover interest in their players. The Dodgers will enter the offseason in uncertainty over a possible lack of funds. 

Had the current team been able to gain significant ground on Wild Card teams ahead of them, the Dodgers may have elected to hold onto their key players down the stretch. However, the Dodgers have fallen further down in the standings since losing back-to-back games against the team directly in front of them, the Colorado Rockies.

As of Sunday, the Dodgers are six and a half games behind the Wild Card leading Philadelphia Phillies. While L.A. continues to struggle, they have already begun to cut their losses. Manny Ramirez is officially on his way to the Chicago White Sox, and the Dodgers didn’t receive a player in return. Following the White Sox claiming him on Friday, the Dodgers shipped him to Chicago on Sunday. The White Sox will assume the remainder of Manny’s contract, something to the tune of $4.5 million.

With Ramirez officially off the roster, the remainder of Dodgers’ outfielders have become slightly more stable on the roster but could still be moved.

Scott Podsednik‘s future may also be determined in the next few days. His contract has an option for next season, valued a little over $1 million. His recent increase in quality of play may be attractive for playoff teams looking for base-runners at the top of the line-up.

In just about a month with the Dodgers, Ted Lilly has gone 5-1 with a stingy ERA, but he may be the next one out. Several teams have inquired about his services, and Los Angeles appears to be giving up on this season and looking forward to next year.

If a team claims Lilly, a deal may be in place, pending the results of the Dodgers’ upcoming series against the Phillies at Chavez Ravine.

By Wednesday or Thursday, fans should have a better look at the near future. Monday will mark the beginning of a very short trial period for the Dodgers, and the outcome will not only determine where the Dodgers finish the 2010 season but likely who the Dodgers will finish the 2010 season with. The “Boys in Blue” will have their hands full with the Phillies, as they will have to tango with Roy Halladay on Monday and Roy Oswalt on Wednesday.

The series begins Monday at 7 pm PST, with Hiroki Kuroda, also placed on waivers, squaring off against Roy Halladay.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com