Kuzul

You would think that a player with over 7,500 plate appearances would be fairly easy to evaluate, but Adrian Beltre may be one of the more difficult players to project going into 2011.  This is a guy who has hit as high as .334 and as low .240, has hit as many as 48 home runs and as few as 19 and has driven in everywhere from 60 runs to double that number.  To say he has been inconsistent would be an understatement. 

That history of inconsistency should make fantasy owners very cautious about where Beltre should be drafted.  However, because he is coming off the second best year of his career (.321, 28 HR, 102 RBI, 84 R), it is safe to assume that most fantasy sites will have Beltre fairly high in their rankings, and he will be drafted accordingly.  

There is no question that the ballpark in Texas will be in Beltre’s favor and the lineup around him is solid, but it still seems like there is too much risk to potentially waste a Top-50 pick on him.  Dave Cameron of Fangraphs wrote this piece attempting to debunk the myth that Beltre is motivated by contract years by saying that in three of his five contract years Beltre has disappointed.  True enough, but it should be noted that Beltre has never had a WAR higher than five in a non-contract year.

One could also argue that the lack of depth at third base is reason to pick early or spend big on Beltre.  However, third base may not actually be all that shallow.  Evan Longoria, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman and Alex Rodriguez are all guys you would clearly rather have over Beltre. 

Michael Young, Martin Prado and Casey McGehee are also viable 3B options.  If you believe in Jose Bautista, add him to that mix as well.  Pablo Sandoval, anyone?  Maybe the Panda has a bounce-back year.  If you can live with the average, Mark Reynolds could get you 30-plus homers. 

On that note, maybe Aramis Ramirez can find his batting average again.  Maybe Scott Rolen, Miguel Tejada and Juan Uribe are not dead yet.  Maybe Chris Johnson will over perform again.  Maybe Pedro Alvarez will take the next step.  Maybe my long time boyfriend, Jose Lopez, will not be completely and utterly useless.  Maybe Lopez’s new teammate, Ian Stewart will hit 25+ homers again.  

Given, there are a lot of maybes there, but maybe Beltre goes all 2005 on us and hits .255 with 19 HR, 69 R and 87 RBI.  There is just no reason to risk a Top-50 pick on a guy with such a long history of inconsistency.  Grab one of the four elite 3B guys or wait until much later to take a risk on a third baseman.

[Original Article]

Written by Brett Talley exclusively for thefantasyfix.com.  Brett is a law student in Dallas who will draft Adrian Beltre when UZR becomes a roto category.  You can follow him on Twitter @therealTAL.

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The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim will have their work cut out for them in 2011. Fierce competition looms ahead, but not from the defending AL West Champion Texas Rangers or improved Oakland A’s.

This season, the Angels’ greatest challenge will be overtaking the Seattle Mariners—for third place in the division.

Hope for more optimistic aspirations dried up yesterday along with the ink from Adrian Beltre‘s signature when he finalized a six-year, $96 million deal with the Rangers. He joins Carl Crawford in a long, previously reported list of free agent failures for the Angels.

Once again, they offered a contract just big enough to feign an interest, but small enough to minimize the risk of bidding for his services.

Losing Beltre is actually a double-punch to the gut for the Angels. Not only are they left with a massive power outage at third base and no source of alternative energy to fix it, but their division rivals now shine that much brighter.

Like everything in Texas, Beltre’s offensive influence will be bigger. A lot bigger than, say, in Anaheim, where pitchers tend to have the advantage.

He wouldn’t have saved the Angels, but as the last viable third base option on the market, he could have made them competitive again.

Angels General Manager Tony Reagins already missed out on other infield options earlier this offseason while he was busy not signing Crawford, who wound up in Boston. Ty Wigginton, Edwin Encarnacion, Dan Uggla, Juan Uribe—all could have helped the Halos but none ever came close to getting the chance.

Currently, third base is a shared position between Alberto Callaspo and Maicer Izturis, presumably to shift back and forth based on whoever has the hot glove and the fewest injuries.

Brandon Wood still looms on the horizon, but after having the worst season in 90 years among players with at least 200 at-bats, his days as a starting infielder in Anaheim appear to be over.

The Angels outfield is thin as well, but like the Rangers, another divisional foe managed to swipe the remaining options off the table before Reagins had a chance to answer the phone.

Oakland has quietly had one of the best offseasons of any team in baseball. The A’s finished ahead of the Angels last season and with a revamped lineup, they’re now poised to replace them as the Rangers’ biggest threat.

Perhaps the most overlooked move of the offseason came when the A’s stole David DeJesus away from the Kansas City Royals. Last July, DeJesus was the hottest player not named Cliff Lee on the market before a wrist injury ended his season and his trade prospects.

Now on the mend, the A’s were able to add his productive bat and speedy legs in center field for relatively little: a fifth starter and a minor league pitcher.

The Angels, meanwhile, are banking on the hope that Peter Bourjos will improve his offense enough to lock down the starting center field job. His defense is, quite honestly, unmatched, but his .204 batting average won’t be tolerated for long.

Over in left, where the Angels expected Crawford to be, they’re now looking at a platoon of Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera, two rapidly aging sluggers whose skills on offense are diminishing and on defense, were never there to begin with.

Once Crawford was off the board, Reagins should have turned his sights to the next best left field options, but it was Oakland GM Billy Beane who pulled the trigger first and landed Josh Willingham from the Washington Nationals.

While Willingham is not the type of player to lead his team offensively, he is still a solid bat in the middle of the order. He’ll also provide a fitting complement to another Oakland addition, former Angel Hideki Matsui.

Matsui belted 21 homers and drove in 84 RBI for the Halos, who have made no corresponding moves in the wake of his absence. For those keeping track, that is a 100 percent loss in offense for a team in desperate need of it.

There is still time though, about a month before pitchers and catchers report for warmups, another week or so after that until the rest of the players filter in. In around two months, Spring Training begins and one month later, the regular season finally gets underway.

That’s almost exactly three months for Reagins and the rest of the Angels’ brass to search high and low for a third baseman, an outfielder, a designated hitter. Perhaps a closer. Anything to bring them back to contention in their own division. Or at least something to bring the fans back to the stadium.

Owner Arte Moreno claims he didn’t want to spend big on free agents at the expense of raising ticket prices.

He made tickets affordable for fans, but at what cost to the team?

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Free Agent third baseman Adrian Beltre is no longer a free agent, after signing a 6-year, $96 million deal with the Texas Rangers.

I’m sure this move is getting some Rangers fans very excited.

If I were a Rangers fan, I’d be upset.

Adrian Beltre isn’t a $96 million dollar player. Not even if the deal were for 10 years. He’s not worth that much money. The Rangers are wasting money that they could put towards a veteran pitcher, either through free agency or trade. Even if they had cut the deal by just $10 million, they’d have an extra $10 million to use on upgrading their team in another way.

Adrian Beltre isn’t a team player. Notice how he waited for his $90-plus million deal to decide that he wanted to win. He could have wanted to win with the Oakland A’s, a much improved, young team in need of good leadership and veteran presence, or the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, a team that, with him in their lineup, would have a much better shot at taking the division in 2011.

The Rangers, in making this signing, are disrespecting the face of their franchise, Michael Young, by making him move positions yet again. Making him move once to make room for Elvis Andrus is one thing. Making him move a second time in two years, that’s disrespectful. I don’t care that he says he’s okay with it. Deep down, he’s upset, and he should be.

Yes, Beltre is the superior third baseman defensively. But that’s like the Yankees resigning Mariano Rivera and then telling him they don’t want him closing anymore. You just don’t do that, especially to the face of your franchise, two times in two years.

This deal is going to come back to bite the Rangers in the butt, because the amount of money Beltre will be stealing from the organization isn’t anything close to what he should earn for the down numbers he’ll put up for the next few years. Beltre is a good player, but not $96 million good, and not when he’s not motivated by a contract year.

Look back through his career. He’s only ever once had a season that was as good, or better, than the one he put up for the Boston Red Sox in 2010, and that was his contract year in 2004 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which was a monster year. Since then, he hasn’t come anywhere close to those numbers, being a bust in Seattle when the Mariners decided to give him a try. He couldn’t put up what he did in 2004, and he couldn’t stay healthy.

He’ll be 32 at the beginning of the 2011 season. That means he’ll be getting to the point of “old for a ballplayer” in the final couple years of his contract. And with age comes slower bat speed and lower numbers at the plate. Since when is it smart to pay a 37-year-old third baseman $18 million?

While this move will improve the Rangers if Beltre can stay healthy, it’s going to cost them way too much for what the man is worth on the diamond. For the sake of the organization and it’s fans, I hope I’m wrong, but I’ve had a bad feeling about Beltre since the beginning of the off-season, and for whatever team it was that decided to give him the $90 million-plus that he wanted.

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As the 2010 season unfolded, the Red Sox front office declared it was interested in re-signing soon-to-be-free-agents Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. And as the offseason began, General Manager Theo Epstein insisted retaining both players was one of the organization’s top priorities.

But actions speak louder than words. The Red Sox failed to make a substantive offer to either player and watched as both players departed for other destinations.

Back in November, I wrote that it was unlikely the Red Sox would make an earnest effort to re-sign either player (or infielder Felipe Lopez, a Type B free agent who remains unsigned) because they “will want the draft picks in what is expected to be a VERY deep 2011 draft.”

Not only will 2011 be a deep draft, but with anticipated changes to future drafts, it’s also expected to be the last draft in which teams like the Red Sox and Yankees will be able to load up on talent (by signing players for above-slot signing bonuses).

In retrospect, the Red Sox approach to Beltre and Martinez seemed an obvious strategy for Epstein and the Sox ownership. The Red Sox organization will receive two picks apiece for the loss of Beltre and Martinez, and another pick if (when) Lopez signs, in the June draft. [NOTE: Lopez was signed in September for the expressed purpose of obtaining an extra draft pick when he signs as a free agent).

Depending on what ultimately happens with free agent closer Rafael Soriano, they’ll likely get the first-round pick for the Tigers (#19 overall) and the Rangers (#26), plus two picks in the supplemental round that follows. They will receive a compensation-round pick for losing Lopez, when he signs elsewhere.

They traded three of their Top Ten prospects in exchange for former San Diego 1B Adrian Gonzalez, and surrendered their own first-round pick for signing LF Carl Crawford.

It is an interesting approach to building a team…

Would you rather have Beltre and Martinez and Kelly/Rizzo/Fuentes and a first-round pick in June, or Crawford and Gonzalez and six picks in the first two rounds of one of the deepest drafts in recent memory?

With the switch of Youkilis across the diamond, Gonzalez effectively replaces Beltre. He is younger and has proven to be a far more consistent run-producer than Beltre (who has had only a couple of decent years, both times in the final year of his contract). Texas gave Beltre five (or six) years at $80 MM (or $96 MM). I’ll take Gonzo…every day.

Crawford essentially replaces Martinez on the roster. He’ll bat third in the lineup and provide the club with outstanding defense. He is not a long-term answer to the team’s dilemma behind home plate, but he is an impact player both at the plate and in the field. Again, I’ll take the new guy.

Would you rather have the three traded prospects and the Sox’ first and second round picks in the upcoming draft, or a total of six picks in the first two rounds of the upcoming draft?

That question is much harder to answer and calls for a great deal of conjecture. The analysis is dependent on whether the Sox ultimately sign Gonzalez to a long-term contract extension (the supposition here is that they will). With that said, we know the following:

Casey Kelly was the Red Sox No. 1 prospect. He now calls the San Diego organization home. He has a tremendous amount of potential, but he is still young and he struggled mightily in Double-A ball last season.

He has been replaced as the team’s top pitching prospect by former LSU standout Anthony Ranaudo, a 6’7″ right-hander who has top-of-the-rotation potential and who was impressive in the Cape Cod League this past summer.

The Red Sox have Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and John Lackey in the rotation for years to come, and Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation for the next couple of years (barring a trade). They also have Tim Wakefield waiting in the wings in case of injuries or struggles. To an extent, Kelly and Ranaudo were redundant commodities. Ranaudo made Kelly expendable.

Gonzalez made Rizzo (and Lars Anderson?) expendable… again, assuming they sign him to a long-term extension.

Fuentes is a decent prospect, but raw. They have a similar outfielder in Jacoby Ellsbury…and now they have added Carl Crawford. Because he was raw and his future could not be assured, he was expendable.

The ballclub will likely have two picks in the first round and two more in the supplemental round, meaning they should have four of the first 50 picks (+/-). It will have at least one more pick in the second round (and another compensation-round pick if and when Lopez signs elsewhere). Therefore, the club will have as many as five of the first 50 picks (+/-) and six of the first 75 picks (+/-) in the draft.

The first six players the Red Sox selected in last year’s draft are all numbered among the organization’s top 21 prospects: Ranaudo (#3), Kolbrin Vitek (#8), Brandon Workman (#15), Sean Coyle (#17), Garin Cecchini (#18) and Bryce Brentz (#21). If the organization is able to repeat those results in the upcoming draft, the strategy the front office employed this off-season will have been a resounding success.

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The Texas Rangers and Adrian Beltre have agreed to a five-year deal that will pay the former Sox 3B a guaranteed $80 million…the contract has a sixth year at $16 million (that will vest depending on the number of plate appearances Beltre makes in 2014/15). Well, it looks like agent Scott Boras did it again!

Beltre hit .321, with 28 HR and 102 RBI in his one season with the Red Sox last year. He led the American League in doubles (49) and posted a plus-10 in defensive runs saved. He also made the AL All-Star team.

But in spite of those numbers, the Beltre market was cool this off-season. Teams seemed to discount his performance in Boston due to the fact he has only put up monster numbers in his contract years, and he won’t have another contract year for five seasons.

He expected heated competition for his services this off-season, but a bidding war never materialized. He was (understandably) cool to an overture from Oakland…and it seemed he may have shot himself in the foot when the holidays came and went without a deal in place.

But Boras managed to pit the Los Angeles Angels and Rangers against one another… and in spite of the fact the Angels were reportedly only willing to go to $70 million, the agent managed to get the Angels to put $80 million in guaranteed money on the table (with another $16 million tied to the third baseman’s ABs).

It seems Texas may have been bidding against itself… and it says here the Rangers will live to regret this contract.

At least it’s not the Red Sox. Theo Epstein got a remarkable season out of Beltre for short money, and will now benefit from two top selections in the ’11 First-Year Player Draft as he heads off into the sunset.

Additionally, when the Beltre deal goes south on Texas, the competition in the A L West will have less money to work with. The rich get richer…

Of his deal with Texas, Beltre said: “We all know that the Rangers have a really good team. I want to win. The team is willing to do whatever it takes to get to the next step. That’s one of the factors in making my decision to come here easier.” Yeah, okay Adrian, it was reason #80,000,001.

He will receive $14 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012, $16 million in 2013, $17 million in 2014 and $18 million in 2015.

The sixth year of the deal is for $16 million in 2016, and can be voided by the Rangers if Beltre fails to have either 1,200 plate appearances in 2014 and 2015 combined, or 600 in 2015.

The deal means Beltre will be the club’s starting third baseman, with incumbent Michael Young shifting to DH and a super-utility role.

It will be the second time in three seasons Young has been asked to shift positions.

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He’s done it again.

Adrian Beltre, for the second time in six years, has completely rebuilt his value during a contract year and has earned himself another huge contract.

The Texas Rangers will potentially pay Beltre $96 million over a six-year contract to carry on his mastery of the third base position and to, hopefully, continue hitting the ball like he did for Boston this past season.

Now, I’m not here to debate over whether or not Beltre got too much money. I’m not going to talk about whether or not the Angels and A’s should’ve stepped up their offers for the All-Star third baseman.

I’m not even going to talk about the trio of Beltres (Engel Beltre, Omar Beltre and now Adrian Beltre) that are currently part of the Texas 40-man roster, though it is quite the fun fact.

What I am interested in is what this signing means for a handful of other guys around the league. Let’s go ahead and begin with what the move means for Beltre’s new teammate, Michael Young.

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The biggest topic in Major League Baseball right now is the signing of Adrian Beltre.  In true Scott Boras fashion he has sold his client well and appears to be on the verge of another monster contract for one of his clients.

What appeared to be a competition between numerous teams, mostly from the AL West, has turned into one team on the verge of a contract. 

According to numerous sources, the Rangers and Beltre have agreed to terms on a six year $96 million deal for the hard slugging third baseman. 

At first sight, this appears to me to be a signing that will make it look like the organization is doing something, which is never a good reason for a signing.  It feels like missing out on Cliff Lee may be causing the Rangers to make somewhat of a rash decision.

I will concede that Beltre is an excellent fielder and a solid bat when he wants to be, but more on that later.

This deal just really doesn’t make sense to me because I don’t see Beltre as an upgrade in anything but home runs, and even that isn’t a huge upgrade.

Beltre had one season of more than 30 home runs, and averages 21 home runs per season over his career.  Young, on the other hand, has averaged almost 16 in his 10 full seasons, which really isn’t that many less.

So what about all the other numbers? 

Young averages more of almost everything else: Runs (+20), Doubles (+4), Hits (+40), RBIs (+4), Walks (+5), Average (+.025), and OBP (+.019).  Young is also good for an extra 100 or so at bats every season.

Young does average 10 more strikeouts, but again, that is with an extra 100 at bats. 

As for the great power numbers that Beltre supposedly is much better with, Young is slugging only .014 lower than Beltre.  That’s right, 14 points and 5 home runs more per season. 

That must be worth $16 million a year.

So how about the stellar defensive numbers that make Beltre so desirable?

It is somewhat difficult to compare the two since Young only has two seasons as a third baseman, whereas Beltre has played there almost exclusively.  But lets just look at all the numbers for fun.

Young has played in about 320 fewer games than Beltre, or essentially two seasons worth.  However, he has more putouts, assists, and double plays, and not just by a little bit.  Some of that can definitely be attributed to his time playing up the middle, but what about as a fielder in general?

Young has almost 100 fewer errors having played essentially two extra full seasons.  He also has a career fielding percentage 21 points better than Beltre. 

Despite the fact that Beltre is supposedly a better fielder, he has almost twice as many errors in 320 fewer games and thus has a fielding percentage that is drastically lower.

Beltre does have one more gold glove than Young, but if Derek Jeter hadn’t won so many because of his past, Young would likely have one or two more.

The biggest reason that I am against this deal is the intangibles.

Young is the consummate team leader who has repeatedly shown the team is more important than his own desires.  He has changed positions twice for the good of the team, and has offered to do so a third time because the team has asked him too.

Beltre, on the other hand, only plays well when he is in a contract year.  His two biggest years in home runs, RBIs, and average were in contract years.  The only two seasons he hit over .300 were those years.

Career bests in hits, runs, slugging percentage, etc…all in his contract years.

Now obviously Daniels, Ryan and Greenberg know more about baseball than I do, since they own the team, but the numbers just don’t add up to me.

I prefer the team player to the selective hustler any day, and the numbers really aren’t that impressive anyway.

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MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan is reporting Adrian Beltre has agreed to a six-year, $96 million contract with the Texas Rangers. The deal is pending a physical, and is not expected to be made official until next week.

On the surface, Beltre’s move from Fenway to Arlington is fantasy friendly, as Arlington had the sixth-highest ballpark factor in 2010 according to ESPN’s MLB Park Factor. Fenway Park was the seventh-highest.

In fact, Beltre’s career numbers at Rangers Ballpark are quite encouraging. In 51 games (219 at-bats) there, the soon-to-be 32-year-old has hit .306 with nine homers and 34 RBI.

It’s worth mentioning, however, what happened last time Beltre signed a multi-year contract.

In 2004, Beltre’s first contact year, the then 25-year-old hit .334, blasted 48 home runs and tallied 121 RBI for the Dodgers. In the following off-season, he signed a five-year, $64 million deal with Seattle.

Beltre’s fat contract seemed to weight him down in 2005, as the third baseman hit just .255 with 19 HRs and 87 RBI.

In his five years with the Mariners, Beltre never came close to putting up the monster numbers he posted in 2004, failing to top 30 HRs, 100 RBI or even a .280 batting average.

In 2009, the last season of his Seattle contract, Beltre underperformed still, hitting just .265 with eight homers while battling injuries.

Beltre landed a one-year, $10 million deal with Boston during the off-season, and became a fantasy commodity in 2010 once again. In 589 at-bats, he hit a whopping .321 (career average .275) with 28 HRs and 102 RBI.

So what should we expect from Beltre in 2011? Will the new contract hamper his desire to play? Or will his new surroundings in hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark aid his fantasy value?

I tend to think both factors will play into Beltre’s 2011 performance. It’s important to note, however, the true cause behind Beltre’s 2010 success.

In his five years with Seattle, Beltre averaged 21 HRs, 79 RBI and a .266 batting average. His 2010 totals with Boston were: 28 HRs, 102 RBI, .321 batting average.

The spike in home runs can probably be attributed to his home ballpark (Fenway opposed to Safeco). The increase in RBI is likely due to the lineup he was in (a potent Boston offense opposed to a dismal Seattle attack).

The difference in batting average? Luck. Beltre posted a .331 BABIP in 2010, a far cry from his career mark of .294. If (and when) his BABIP drops back down into the .300 range in 2011, he’s no better than a .270 hitter with 25 HRs. Solid? Yes. Good enough for top five at a thin third-base position or an ADP of 57 on Mock Draft Central? No.

FBI Forecast: 580 at-bats, 75 runs, 24 HRs, 90 RBI, 5 stolen bases, .269 batting average

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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With Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth out of the picture now, the free agency period has settled into the backdrop.  However, many players are still out on the market looking for contracts. 

Even with the big names signing big contracts, there is still plenty of talent available.  Here are the top 20 free agents that are still available. 

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It’s been an eerily quiet offseason for most clubs.

While teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers have all been among the most active thus far, most have remained rather inactive in the early part of the free agent season.

With so many long-term contracts in the past that have proven to be a burden to clubs down the road, general managers aren’t spending lavishly like in previous times.

It’s a bad time to be a remaining free agent, because the amount of money left to spend is shrinking by the day. 

Begin Slideshow

While most of the winter’s biggest prizes have been snatched up (Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford to name a couple) and delivered as early Christmas presents to franchises, there still remains a solid group of free agents who can impact the upcoming season for many prospective teams. In the spirit of the New Year, let’s countdown from the Type Bs to Type As remaining on the Free Agent landscape and where they will land in 2011:

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