MLB Free Agents 2017: Predicting Landing Spots for Top Players Still Available

These are hard times for MLB free agents. With spring training fast approaching, roster spots and money are in shorter supply than they were at the beginning of the offseason.

This much is certain, though: The top free agents still standing won’t be unemployed forever. They’re going to land somewhere.

So, let’s go ahead and predict where these somewheres will be.

Since the free-agent market has largely been picked clean, we’re only going to focus on the 10 best players still looking for work. We’ll find homes for them by speculating about what’s spinning around the rumor mill and on where their talents fit.

Let’s start with the best free agent remaining and go from there.

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Making Sense of Baseball’s Edgar Martinez, Designated Hitter HOF Debate

The Hall of Fame lists Frank Thomas as a first baseman.

Not as a first baseman/designated hitter. Not as a designated hitter/first baseman.

Thomas started 340 more games as a DH than he did at first base, but nowhere on his Cooperstown plaque or on his page on the Hall of Fame website does it even mention his time at DH. Paul Molitor is a third baseman, according to the Hall, even though he started 1,168 games as a DH and 786 at third base.

When will we put a DH in the Hall of Fame? We already have.

Just not Edgar Martinez.

He was so good at the job that baseball named the annual DH award after him. He’s so connected to the job that you get the feeling it’s the biggest thing keeping him out of Cooperstown.

He was, as ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark wrote, “one of the great hitters of his generation.”

And yet until this year, I didn’t give him a Hall of Fame vote. I’m not alone. As recently as 2014, Martinez got just 25.2 percent of the vote.

He jumped to 43.4 percent last year, and Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker has him taking another jump this year. He’s gaining votes, but he’s also running out of time. It doesn’t look likely he’ll get in this year, and he’ll be on the ballot only two more times.

In other words, it’s about time we figure out what to do with him. It’s about time we figure out how to judge a guy who barely wore a glove for the final decade of his career.

It’s about time we come to grips with the DH rule, now in its 45th year in the American League.

Do we judge a guy who was almost exclusively a DH (71 percent of his career starts and 98 percent of his starts in his final 10 seasons) the way we would any other hitter? Or does he need to be even better to make up for not contributing anything on the other side of the game?

Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated, who spends as much time as anyone evaluating Hall of Fame candidates, calls Martinez one of the top 30 or 40 hitters of all time. During the best seven-year stretch of his career (1995-2001), Martinez ranked third in the majors in Baseball-Reference.com‘s OPS+, which equalizes for league and ballpark.

The only two guys ahead of him during that span? Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire.

Neither of them is in the Hall of Fame, either, but that’s another argument. It’s that other argumentthe steroid argumentthat dominates Hall of Fame debates. It’s so overwhelming that it obscures other just-as-interesting discussions, such as what to do with closers and what to do with designated hitters.

The Martinez debate is more than just a DH debate, though. He finished in the top five in MVP voting just once (1995), and his career totals (2,247 hits, 309 home runs) look a little light, in part because he didn’t become a major league regular until he was 27.

He didn’t have as many big postseason moments as David Ortiz, a DH who will likely find an easier path to Cooperstown.

But Martinez was still a great hitter, and it’s hard to believe he’d have such a hard time with voters if he’d spent the majority of his career at third base.

“I can’t believe any AL voter would discriminate against him,” Bob Ryan wrote in the Boston Globe. “Has to be those NL Luddites.”

Yeah, except that two of the guys who didn’t vote for Martinez this year (Nick Cafardo and Dan Shaughnessy) have covered the Boston Red Sox for the Globe.

“I have left off Edgar Martinez, never feeling his numbers were quite good enough,” Cafardo wrote.

I know the feeling. I looked at Martinez’s numbers every year, and every year I thought, “Not quite good enough.”

Eventually, I realized I was looking for too much. I was asking for too much, trying to make up for what Martinez didn’t do on defense. I never eliminated him because he had been a DH, but I set unrealistic standards for him because he was one.

I switched this year, and I don’t expect to switch back. I’m not alone on that, either. Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker has Martinez adding 31 votes this year (while inexplicably losing one). My Bleacher Report colleague Scott Miller was also one of the switches, citing many of the same reasons I did.

Martinez finally has momentum on his side. He has plenty of numbers on his side, including those where he compares favorably to Ortiz (147-141 edge for Martinez in OPS+, .933-.931 in OPS, 68.3-55.4 in Baseball-Reference.com’s version of WAR).

And just as it ought to help Trevor Hoffman that baseball named its National League Reliever of the Year Award after him, it should help Martinez that it’s the Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award (which Ortiz won in 2016).

Cy Young is in the Hall of Fame, isn’t he?

                                

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


2017-18 MLB Free Agents: An Early Look at Next Winter’s Best Available Players

The 2016-17 MLB free-agent class was projected to be a dud, and it hasn’t disappointed.

Or, rather, it has.

A couple of significant sluggersYoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion—have inked major deals, but far more power hitters remain unsigned as the calendar churns toward mid-January. 

What about free-agent pitchers? Fuhgeddaboudit

As we warm our hands by the waning coals of this tepid hot stove and eagerly await actual baseball action, why not gaze ahead to the 2017-18 offseason?

It’s not as loaded as the mythical 2018-19 class, but it’s a more star-studded group than this year’s, featuring ace-level arms and All-Star-caliber players at premium positions.

We’re going to focus on players who are guaranteed to hit the market unless they sign an extension, so guys with opt-out clauses or team options aren’t being counted (if they were, Johnny Cueto and Andrew McCutchen would be among the possible additions).

Tap the mud off your spikes and proceed when ready.

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Santiago Casilla to A’s: Latest Contract Details, Comments, Reaction

Veteran reliever Santiago Casilla has found a new home this offseason, agreeing to a deal with the Oakland Athletics.  

Robert Murray of FanRag Sports first reported Casilla and the A’s were nearing agreement on a two-year deal. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle confirmed the deal.

Casilla has spent the previous seven seasons with the San Francisco Giants, playing an integral role in the team’s World Series wins in 2012 and 2014 with a 0.63 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 14.1 innings over 20 appearances. 

The 36-year-old did start to show signs of slowing down last season, though he was hardly the only Giants reliever who struggled in 2016. His strikeout and strikeout-to-walk rates were fine, but opposing hitters did seem to be squaring him up with greater ease.

It’s hardly a surprise to see Casilla start to take a step back. He has pitched in a lot of games for the Giants over the years, recording at least 50 appearances six times in the last seven years, not to mention additional innings in the postseason. 

Granted, Casilla was rarely overextended in San Francisco. His innings total ranged from 50.0 to 63.1 since 2009, a testament to Giants manager Bruce Bochy’s ability to get the most out of his relievers. 

Casilla was an attractive free agent because of his extended role as the Giants closer, including racking up a career-high 38 saves in 2015. 

The A’s have taken a unique approach with their roster this offseason. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reported they offered Edwin Encarnacion a higher average annual salary of $25 million than what the slugger ultimately took from the Cleveland Indians, but the years on the contract were shorter. 

After missing out on Encarnacion, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, A’s general manager Billy Beane gave 36-year-old outfielder Rajai Davis $6 million for one year. 

After losing 93 games last season, the A’s are trying to build a more competitive roster in 2017. Casilla likely won’t be their closer, as Ryan Madson is coming off a solid season in the role and is under contract for two more seasons. 

However, Casilla does give A’s manager Bob Melvin more length to take advantage of in late-game situations. The team finished 20th in bullpen ERA last season, and its 23 blown saves were the seventh-most in MLB, per ESPN.com.

There was a clear separation at the top of this year’s market for relievers, with Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon setting the tone and everyone else following in their wake. 

Given Casilla’s age, he may not be the same pitcher two years from now, but his ability to miss bats makes him a safe bet to play a key role in the bullpen for the Athletics in 2017.  

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Carlos Vargas, Ryan Yarbrough to Rays: Latest Trade Details and Scouting Report

The Tampa Bay Rays took steps to stockpile talent in their farm system starting next season by trading starting pitcher Drew Smyly to the Seattle Mariners

Per the Rays’ official Twitter account, they received outfielder Mallex Smith and minor leaguers Carlos Vargas and Ryan Yarbrough to send Smyly to Seattle. 

Smith made his major league debut last season with the Atlanta Braves. He hit .238/.316/.365 in 72 games and was a terrific defender with seven runs saved between left field and center field in 451 innings, per FanGraphs.

Matthew Pouliot of Rotoworld noted similarities between Smith and one of his now-former teammates with the Braves:

Vargas and Yarbrough are still working their way through the minors, with the latter being closer to the big leagues and the more highly regarded prospect. 

Yarbrough is a 25-year-old left-handed pitcher who spent last season at Double-A. He posted a 2.95 ERA with 99 strikeouts and 31 walks in 128.1 innings. 

Per J.J. Cooper of Baseball America, Yarbrough was going to rank No. 12 on the Mariners’ prospect list due to be released in the coming weeks. 

Per MLB.com, Yarbrough will rank as Tampa Bay’s No. 16 prospect with this evaluation:

Yarbrough has thrown harder as a professional than he did in college, as he’ll sit at 91-93 and occasionally bump the mid-90s, all while throwing strikes and working on a downhill plane. His changeup is his best secondary offering, thrown with excellent deception from his three-quarters delivery, and it complements his action on his fastball. The left-hander’s breaking ball is slurvy and tends to linger up in the zone, though he still has the ability to throw it for a strike. He has outstanding command and generates a good amount of ground-ball outs.

One potential hang-up for Yarbrough as a starter in the big leagues is health. Last season marked the first time since he was drafted in 2014 that he broke the 100-inning barrier. He hasn’t had any major injuries to this point, despite missing time in 2015 with a groin injury. 

Vargas is a wild card in this equation for the Rays. He’s a 17-year-old shortstop who played 62 games in the Dominican Summer League last season and posted a .242/.344/.391 slash line in 215 at-bats. 

The Rays noted Baseball America ranked Vargas as the No. 19 international prospect two years ago, with MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez offering this scouting report at the time of his signing in 2015:

Scouts like Vargas’ raw power along with his projectable body, and there’s a belief that he will hit for power in the future.

On defense, the teenager could be athletic enough to stay at shortstop as he matures, but he could also end up at third base because of his size. He could also end up in the outfield.

Because Vargas is so young and has yet to play in a full-season league, his potential value to the Rays in this deal likely won’t be known for at least another four years. There is upside in his bat, as he fills out his 6’3″, 170-pound frame that makes him a worthy gamble. 

Even though Smyly was still under team control through 2018, the Rays were able to seize an opportunity now by dealing him with two years of arbitration left. They dealt from an area of depth with Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell and Alex Cobb plugged into the rotation. 

In doing so, the Rays got an outfielder in Smith who can help them right away and has six years of team control remaining. Yarbrough could contribute out of the rotation or bullpen as soon as this season, and Vargas could end up as a power-hitting corner infielder. 

It’s not a bad return for a team that always has to be mindful of finances and keep the farm system stocked with talent to compete in the American League East.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Mallex Smith to Rays in Trade Involving Drew Smyly: Latest Details and Reaction

The Tampa Bay Rays announced Wednesday they traded Drew Smyly to the Seattle Mariners for Mallex Smith and two minor leaguers, Carlos Vargas and Ryan Yarbrough.

Smyly, one of the centerpieces of the trade that sent David Price to the Detroit Tigers in 2014, went 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA in 30 starts for the Rays last year.

The Mariners shared a statement from general manager Jerry Dipoto:

Smith appeared in 72 games for the Atlanta Braves, batting .238 with three home runs and 22 RBI. He was with the Mariners for roughly an hour. Seattle announced earlier in the day they had acquired the 23-year-old.

The Seattle Times‘ Larry Stone remembers Smith’s time in the Pacific Northwest fondly:

Dipoto hasn’t been shy about turning over the roster and minor league farm system to remake the organization. Since taking over in September 2015, he’s made 36 trades, the most by one team during that span, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Smyly will likely be Seattle’s No. 4 starter in 2017. In Felix Hernandez, James Paxton and Hisashi Iwakuma, the Mariners have three starting pitchers who can anchor the rotation. Smyly provides further depth. He’s also under team control through 2018, so he shouldn’t be just a one-year rental.

The Seattle Times‘ Ryan Divish noted Smith was the final piece Dipoto needed before he could pull the trigger on the Smyly deal.

Smith is a bit like Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton in that he boasts impressive speed, but questions remain about whether he can get on base enough to make the most of his baserunning ability. After posting a .382 on-base percentage in five minor league seasons, Smith had a .316 on-base percentage in his 215 big league plate appearances last year.

The Rays ranked 28th in batting average (.243) and 27th in on-base percentage (.307) in 2016, so Smith’s issues at the plate are concerning. He’s still young, though, so he’ll have plenty of time to iron out his offensive issues.

Neither Vargas nor Yarbrough will likely help Tampa Bay right away. The 17-year-old Vargas played in 62 Dominican Summer League games, posting a .242/.344/.391 slash line. Yarbrough made 25 starts for Seattle’s Double-A affiliate, going 12-4 with a 2.95 ERA.

Vargas and Yarbrough will help bolster a Rays farm system that has lost a lot of talent in recent years.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Tim Tebow Not Among Players Invited to Mets’ Major League Camp

The New York Mets sent out invitations Wednesday to their major league spring training camp, but Tim Tebow is not one of the names on the list, according to Marc Carig of Newsday

Carig did add that the Mets could “borrow” Tebow for Grapefruit League games.

A former college football star and NFL quarterback, Tebow signed a minor league deal with the Mets in September and spent the fall in the Gulf Coast and Arizona Fall leagues. 

Tebow’s attempt at the majors was a surprising one, as he hadn’t played organized baseball since high school.

After he put on a showcase in late August for MLB scouts, reviews of his potential spanned from “a complete waste of time” to “better than I expected,” per Josh Peter of USA Today

Even so, his first at-bat in the Gulf Coast League was something out of a storybook, as he belted an opposite-field home run. 

It was all downhill from there, though, as Tebow struggled mightily following his move to the Scottsdale Scorpions in the Arizona Fall League. In 70 plate appearances, he batted .194/.296/.242, per Matt Snyder of CBSSports.com. Those stats prompted ESPN.com’s Keith Law to label the outfielder “an imposter.”

However, Snyder did point out that Tebow’s game improved down the stretch; he batted .281 with a .425 on-base percentage in his final 11 games.

The 29-year-old’s game is still raw, however, and needs a ton of work. While he has power and decent speed, there isn’t much else that would qualify him for a career in the majors. 

For a Mets team that looks poised to make a serious run in the National League in 2017, Tebow’s body of work was too small and not impressive enough to earn a call to the big league camp. 

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Fantasy Baseball 2017: Position-by-Position Rankings

It’s time to start preparing for the upcoming fantasy baseball season.

Sure, most drafts are still at least a month away. But nobody wants to be caught unprepared, forced to rely on the preset rankings supplied by whatever site your league uses, manically flipping printouts as you search for a worthy selection while the clock runs out on you.

On the pages that follow, we’ll delve into the top 20 players at every position (top 40 for outfielders and starting pitchers), identifying at least one player at each position who just missed the cut but should remain firmly on your radar.

These rankings are based on a standard, five-by-five mixed rotisserie league. While they’re applicable in other types of leagues, you’ll have to adjust the rankings based on the scoring system you’ll be playing under.

Let’s get started.

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Each MLB Team’s Untouchable Top Prospects Entering 2017

It’s risky these days to call any prospect untouchable, as we’ve seen too many blockbuster deals in recent years to truly believe anyone is 100 percent safe from being moved in the right deal.

After all, who would have guessed that Yoan Moncada would be dealt this winter?

That said, a handful of prospects around the league come awfully close to being untouchable, as their future upside and expected long-term role with their teams make trading them highly unlikely.

Ahead is a look at each MLB team’s most untouchable prospect, though a number of teams didn’t necessarily qualify for this exercise, as you’ll see in the first three slides.

Is this a 100 percent guarantee that none of these players will be traded in 2017? Definitely not, but it would be a shock if any of them were moved.

 

Note: Players who still have rookie eligibility but are expected to begin the 2017 season on a major league roster were not considered for this article. That notably includes Josh Bell (PIT), Andrew Benintendi (BOS), Jeff Hoffman (COL), Alex Reyes (STL) and Dansby Swanson (ATL).

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Predicting New York Mets Depth Charts a Month Ahead of Spring Training

“Depth” is a loaded word for the New York Mets.

The Mets won the National League pennant in 2015 on the strength of their stacked, young starting rotation. Last season, the same group was beset by injuries, and it is a question mark going into 2017.

New York is also dealing with a glut of corner outfielders and uncertainty in center field, and it is likely to lose its closer for a significant stretch due to a domestic violence suspension. Injury issues lurk in the infield as well.

All that said, this is a talented roster fully capable of competing for an NL East title and making another deep postseason run.

As we slog through the final month before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, let’s run down the Mets’ depth chart, with the obvious caveat that further trades or signings will change the calculus. We’ll also take a look at some players waiting in the wings for when holes inevitably open up.

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