Remember the last time the New York Mets were contenders? It was 2008, and just about everything was clicking. Everything, that is, except the bullpen.

The Mets blew a total of 29 saves that season. Their bullpen finished with a 4.27 ERA. They lost six of their final nine games, getting knocked out of the playoff race by the Florida Marlins on the last day of the season for a second straight year. 

If every game had ended after eight innings, then-Philadelphia Inquirer writer Andy Martino pointed out, the Mets would have won the National League East by 12 games.

But that was then. If the Mets again find themselves in a playoff race in September 2015, their bullpen could very well provide the boost they need, instead of ripping their hopes apart at the seams. 

Mets fans will be quick to note that, in ’08, closer Billy Wagner was injured for the final two months of the season. But that’s exactly the point: Their ‘pen was so mediocre, so fragile to begin with, that it couldn’t possibly withstand that type of loss.

Now, the Mets enter spring training with not only an adequate bullpen, but one that has the potential to be great—and deep.  

“We’ve got a back end of our bullpen that has four guys that could be closers on any team,” manager Terry Collins said at the Winter Meetings, per Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. The four Collins was presumably referring to: Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black and Bobby Parnell.

Over the past several seasons, general manager Sandy Alderson has typically brought in veteran, past-their-prime relievers in an attempt to fill gaping bullpen holes. Names like Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth, Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch jump to mind. 

This offseason, Alderson didn’t feel the need. The Mets’ young arms have come into their own, finishing 2014 with a 3.14 bullpen ERA that ranked eighth in Major League Baseball. 

Mejia took over the closer’s role when Parnell needed Tommy John surgery, and he recorded 28 saves with a 3.65 ERA in 63 appearances. His curveball and slider were nasty, and he transitioned nicely from a starter to a reliever, with swagger:

With Parnell due to return in May, it remains to be seen whether Mejia will keep the closing duties when he comes back or cede them to the more experienced righty. Relative to past years, this is a wonderful problem for the Mets to have. 

Familia, who’s likely to handle the eighth inning, had a 2.21 ERA in 77 1/3 innings last year and finished seventh in NL Rookie of the Year Voting. He averages over 96 mph on his fastball, according to FanGraphs.

Black was demoted in spring training in 2014 before being called up and posting a 2.60 ERA, fanning just under a batter per inning.

Mejia, Familia, Black and Parnell: four flame-throwing righties, three of whom are 25 or 26 years old and one of whom (Parnell) is 30. All four should be approaching or still in their prime.

Add to the equation right-hander Carlos Torres, who was reliable though overworked in 2014; lefty Josh Edgin, who’s established himself as a left-handed specialist but believes he can be more; Dillon Gee, the odd man out of the rotation who will likely begin the year in the ‘pen; and another southpaw, perhaps Sean Gilmartin from the Rule 5 draft, and the Mets could find themselves with a shutdown bullpen to piggyback a rotation full of rising stars.

But there’s a flip side.  

Bullpens are a fickle thing, and the four aforementioned flame-throwers haven’t exactly been putting up numbers in the big leagues over a sustained period. Last season was Mejia’s first with more than 39 innings pitched and marked his first experience closing. Familia was a rookie after cups of coffee in 2012 and 2013. Black, too, achieved rookie status in 2014. And Parnell has pitched just one inning in the last year and a half. 

Lukas Vlahos of Amazin‘ Avenue wrote last summer that the peripheral stats suggest Familia, Edgin and Black could all be due for some regression. Plus, Mejia and Familia each underwent offseason sports hernia surgery, while Black was shut down early last season with shoulder/neck issues. All three say they’re back at 100 percent, per Kristie Ackert of the Daily News. 

Surely, there are questions regarding the Mets’ lineup: Can David Wright bounce back from a down year? Is Lucas Duda the real deal? What will Curtis Granderson provide? But it’s fairly safe to assume the offense will be somewhere between subpar and average. The rotation, meanwhile, will fall somewhere between good and unstoppable, and the defense will be strong in the outfield and weak in the infield. 

The bullpen? It could fall just about anywhere on that spectrum.  

The 2015 season is make-or-break for Collins, Alderson and the Mets, and the bullpen—specifically, whether Mejia, Familia, Black and Edgin continue to improve—could ultimately be the deciding factor in whether the Amazin‘s are destined for a seventh straight losing campaign, or a shot at the postseason. 

“I think this is the year,” Familia told Matt Ehalt of The Bergen Record. “Like Mejia said, I think we have to believe. We have a pretty good rotation, got good guys that can hit the ball, and the bullpen is strong. I think we can be there.”

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