It’s one thing to break out. It’s another to stick around.
That’s a lesson some members of the impressive 2016 MLB rookie class will inevitably learn the hard way. Baseball history is littered with the husks of once-promising careers that withered on the vine.
Other rookies’ stars, however, will keep rising—injuries, regression and sophomore slumps be damned. Baseball boasts plenty of those stories, too.
Which of this season’s first-year studs will watch their strong debuts blossom and grow? A glance at the stats, track records and early trends—plus a healthy dollop of gut feeling—can help point the way.
Here, then, are a few of this season’s most promising rookies—meaning guys who’ve already debuted and had a significant impact, not prospects waiting in the wings—and a look at why their futures are especially bright.
Shining Shortstop in SoCal
We’re sitting at the dawn of a golden era for shortstops. And a trio of National League rookies is joining the party, though Corey Seager of the Los Angeles Dodgers stands head and shoulders above the others.
With 18 home runs entering play Thursday, the Colorado Rockies’ Trevor Story is on pace to break the all-time National League rookie home run record of 38 set by Wally Berger in 1930 and equaled by Frank Robinson in 1956.
Aledmys Diaz of the St. Louis Cardinals, meanwhile, won a starting job out of spring training after a thumb injury to veteran Jhonny Peralta and has proceeded to hit .310 with nine home runs.
Story, a first-round pick by the Rockies in 2011, has smacked 11 of his home runs on the road compared to seven at home. But his OPS is more than 70 points higher at Coors Field, meaning he’ll remain susceptible to the obligatory Mile High doubts.
Diaz, meanwhile, is a 25-year-old who was clinging to the fringes of the Cards’ 25-man roster a few months ago.
He’s shown remarkable staying power, and St. Louis has a knack for developing under-the-radar talent, but his slugging percentage has fallen 200-plus points since the beginning of May.
Seager, on the other hand, looks like something close to a sure thing.
After an eye-opening debut in 2015, the lanky 22-year-old leads the Dodgers in home runs (16), RBI (37) and OPS (.867).
Add a glove that makes him the seventh-best defensive shortstop in baseball (Story is No. 18 and Diaz No. 22), and you have the makings of a complete player and perennial All-Star.
“I love the offense and the offense is great, but that he is doing [it] at a premium position defensively, on a day-to-day basis, for me is really special,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, per ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla.
Fulmer’s House
From the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda to the New York Mets’ Steven Matz, you don’t need to search far to find superlative rookie pitchers.
The 28-year-old Maeda, however, carries the weight of injury concerns that led Los Angeles to hand him an incentive-laden contract.
The same goes for the 25-year-old Matz, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010 and recently felt discomfort in his throwing elbow, a troubling red flag for Mets fans who are also dealing with fears over the durability of ace Noah Syndergaard’s elbow, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
Granted, Detroit Tigers right-hander Michael Fulmer battled “dizziness” in his start Wednesday, and he will skip his next turn as a precaution, per Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press.
Still, Fulmer has offered an injection of hope in the Motor City.
Acquired from the Mets last July in the Yoenis Cespedes trade, Fulmer ripped off a 33.1-inning scoreless streak for the Tigers that ended June 17. Overall, he owns a 2.40 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 63.2 frames.
After a rough start to 2016, Fulmer worked to refine a changeup that now complements the mid-90s fastball and biting slider that have drawn comparisons to veteran Tigers hurler and former American League MVP Justin Verlander.
“He’s a go-after guy,” former Detroit hurler Joel Zumaya said, per Jeff Seidel of the Detroit Free Press. “He shows no emotion. His emotion is: OK, I’m going to eat you and I’m going to get you. He goes right after guys. I was that type of guy, Verlander is that type of guy.”
That doesn’t mean Fulmer, a 2011 first-round pick, will enjoy that brand of long-term success. At age 23, though, he’s taking the first essential steps.
Just Say Nomar
Fulmer is inserting himself squarely into the AL Rookie of the Year conversation. Until further notice, however, the leader in the clubhouse remains Nomar Mazara.
The Dominican outfielder was always supposed to have game-changing pop, and that’s what he’s showcased so far for the Texas Rangers, cracking 11 homers that traveled an average “true distance” of 425.1 feet, according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker, compared to the MLB average of 399.4 feet.
Yes, Mazara has hit a few bumps and seen his OPS decline nearly 50 points since the start of May. But he’s also just 21 years old, an age when many prospects are cutting their baby teeth in the lower levels.
That could signal more growing pains on the horizon. Or it could mean Mazara is simply an extra-special case.
As FanGraphs‘ August Fagerstrom opined in May, “The Rangers are in the business of competing for a World Series championship this year, and when a team is in the business of competing for a World Series championship, it does so by fielding a 25-man roster comprised of its best 25 players. Nomar Mazara is one of those players.”
The same can be said for all the rookies highlighted here. They’ve broken out. Now, it’s time to stick around.
All statistics current as of June 22 and courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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