Earlier this season, many writers and fans, including myself, were wondering if Mike Pelfrey was an ace after his strong start to the year.

The question was certainty warranted as Pelfrey had gone 10-2 with one save after his first 15 starts. Pelfrey had posted a 2.71 ERA, a 1.85 K/BB rate, and held hitters to a .246 average over that period.

Since then, Pelfrey has done nothing but struggle. In his last seven starts, Pelfrey is 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA. Pelfrey has an ugly 0.88 K/BB rate and has had hitters bat .437 against him over that span.

The biggest question on Mets fans’ minds is what caused Pelfrey’s struggles and can he return to the success he had at the beginning of the year.

At least a part of Pelfrey’s troubles can be attributed to a lack of luck. Through his first 15 starts, batters had a .281 BABIP against Pelfrey, but they have had a .481 BABIP against him in his past seven starts. A much larger percentage of balls hit off of Pelfrey are finding spots to land in the field. This can be partially explained by hitters line drive percentage off of Pelfrey.

Through his first 15 starts, only 18% of balls hit off of Pelfrey were line drives. This number jumped up to 29% in his last seven starts. Line drives are more likely than any other batted ball to be a hit. This increase is partially responsible for the higher BABIP that…(to read the rest click on the link below)

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