As we all wait for the Washington Nationals to announce the signing of first baseman Adam LaRoche to a two-year contract—what is taking so long, anyway? I thought it might be fun to take a peek into the team’s future to a time when LaRoche will have already come and gone.
Let’s take a look at 2014 which gives several players now in the minor leagues the time to mature and gain their footing at the major league level. I’ll project their statistics with an explanation of how I arrived at those numbers, (it will be a combination of science and hope).
The players are listed in the lineup that makes the most sense.
CF—Eury Perez
Age in 2014: 24
Bats: Right / Throws: Right
Major League experience in 2014: Second year
Projected statistics: .275-3-40, 65 stolen bases, .355 on-base percent
Perez is a product of the Dominican Republic and one of those types of players signed in quantity in the hopes of finding a quality player or two among them. After batting .287/.412/.366 with 4 homers, 58 RBI and 43 stolen bases in just 376 at-bats in the Dominican League, the then 17-year-old was moved to the United States where he spent the last two seasons playing in the rookie Gulf Coast League and for Hagerstown of the Class-A South Atlantic League.
He batted 599 times over those two seasons and hit .323/.377/.421 with 20 doubles, 10 triples, 6 home runs, 66 RBI and 80 stolen bases. Playing against superior competition in the just completed Dominican Winter League, Perez batted .345/.397/.388 with 21 stolen bases in 116 at-bats.
That’s on pace to swipe more than 100 bases over the course of a full season. He was named the Dominican Winter League Rookie of the Year.
Aaron Fitt of Baseball America referred to his speed as “elite” in a recent discussion with masn.com’s Byron Kerr. Though his defense is still a work in progress, with experience, he should become a quality major league outfielder.
If he continues to hit well, he’ll spend all of 2011 with Class-A Potomac and 2012 with Double-A Harrisburg. The 2013 season would likely be split between Triple-A Syracuse and the Nationals.
Perez is currently the team’s number eight prospect according to Baseball America. I think he will end up being a similar outfielder to Nook Logan but with a great deal more talent. As long as he continues to have a high on-base percentage, he’ll succeed in the major leagues.
2B—Stephen Lombardozzi
Age in 2014: 25
Bats: Switch Hitter / Throws: Right
Major League experience in 2014: Third year
Projected Statistics: .275-4-55, 25 stolen bases, .365 on-base percent
Most believe that Danny Espinosa is the Nationals’ heir apparent at second base, but Lombardozzi seems to be more of General Manager Mike Rizzo’s type of player. He is not only an outstanding defender but a better contact hitter. Over his minor league career, Lombardozzi has struck out just 13% of the time while Espinosa whiffs in more than 28% of his at-bats.
Lombardozzi is the model of consistency. Take a look at his offensive slash lines over his three minor league seasons:
2008 (Rookie): .283/.371/.322
2009 (Class-A): .296/.375/.395
2010 (Class-A, AA): .294/.371/.431
Further, in the recently completed Arizona Fall League, Lombardozzi batted .293/.385/.439.
Lombardozzi keeps playing, keeps getting promoted, and keeps putting up the same solid numbers season after season.
Yes, Danny Espinosa has much more power than Lombardozzi and could hit 20-25 homers per season. But the Nationals have enough power at other positions to make his home run potential unnecessary.
Winning teams need players who provide good defense and get on base, and Stephen Lombardozzi fills that need.
3B—Ryan Zimmerman
Age in 2014: 29
Bats: Right / Throws: Right
Major League experience in 2014: ninth year
Projected statistics: .300-35-120, .375 on-base percentage.
Ryan will get another contract extension sometime in the next couple of years and will continue to put up Silver Slugger offensive numbers while playing Gold Glove defense for the next decade.
RF—Jayson Werth
Age in 2014: 35
Bats: Right / Throws: Right
Major League experience in 2014: 11th year
Projected statistics: .282-32-100, .380 on-base percent, 15 stolen bases
As long as Werth—as promised by Mike Rizzo—continues to hit well up until he is 40, then we can easily expect this type of production from him. Here’s hoping that for Rizzo’s sake he wasn’t wrong about Werth’s longevity.
LF—Bryce Harper
Age in 2014: 22
Bats: Left / Throws: Right
Major League experience in 2014: Third year
Projected statistics: .300-20-100, 15 stolen bases, .390 on-base percentage
It wasn’t too difficult to project Harper’s offensive production even though he has yet to play a game in the minor leagues, (he did bat .343/.410/.629 in the Arizona Fall League).
In his third season, 21-year-old Ken Griffey Jr. batted .327-22-100 with a .399 on-base percent. Alex Rodriguez, after playing the equivalent of two seasons in the majors batted .300-23-84 with a .350 on-base percent in year number three. He was also 21.
If we assume that Harper is going to be as good as Griffey and Rodriguez at the same age then .300-20-100 might even be underestimating his ability. I believe Harper will be a consistent .320-35-120 hitter for the foreseeable future and will anchor the Nationals’ lineup for quite some time.
1B—Tyler Moore
Age in 2014: 27
Major League experience in 2014: Second year
Projected statistics: .260-18-69, .330 on-base percentage
I’m not sure what to make of Moore. After a terrible rookie season with Vermont in 2008 (.200/.239/.306 in 71 games), he played well for Class-A Hagerstown in 2009, batting .297/.363/.447 but with just 9 homers and 87 RBI. Last season, he had a breakout season for High-A Potomac, hitting .269-31-111 and a .321 on-base percentage.
Over his minor league career, Moore has averaged .263-23-113 over 560 at-bats with 151 strikeouts and just 20 walks. He seems to be a player with immense power but with holes in his swing and a lack of patience at the plate.
I can’t say for sure that Moore will ever be an every-day major league hitter. He hits lefties better than right handers, (.294 vs. .257), so he’s not a candidate for a true platoon. His defense is acceptable but not great.
Of the positions listed, Tyler Moore and first base is the prediction of which I’m the least certain.
SS—Ian Desmond
Age in 2014: 27
Major League experience in 2014: Sixth year
Projected statistics: .280-17-55, 20 stolen bases, .330 on-base percentage
As he matures, Ian Desmond should become a quality defender, perhaps even near great if he can continue to reduce his throwing errors. Offensively though, I think he has a somewhat limited ceiling.
Over a six-year minor league career, Desmond averaged .259/.326/.388. Prior to his .330/.401/.477 2010 breakout season, four of his five yearly on-base percentages were below .321 with two being below .300. He is not going to be the type of player who will get on base a lot.
That’s okay. Batting seventh in the lineup, Desmond will give the Nationals more than enough offense to help the team win.
C—Wilson Ramos
Age in 2014: 26
Major League experience in 2014: fifth year
Projected statistics: .265-15-50, .320 on-base percent
Heading into the 2010 season, Ramos was listed by Baseball America as the 58th best prospect in the minor leagues and heads into 2011 as the Nationals’ number e prospect.
Splitting time between the Twins and Nationals, he hit .278/.305/.405 in 79 at-bats last season and over five minor league seasons batted .285/.332/.431 and averaged 15 homers and 78 RBI over 550 at-bats.
I am low-balling Ramos’ statistics in the above predictions only because I haven’t seen enough of him. But if his indicators are true, I think he is capable of batting .270-18-70 while playing tremendous defense.
If all he eventually gives the Nationals is .250-10-50 while playing his impressive defense then the team will be just fine. Desmond at short and Ramos behind the plate play in the National League so their defense takes precedence over what they do at the plate. That said, both will do enough to help their team.
Of these eight players, five will give the Nationals quality on-base percentages while five will give the team at least league-average power. Perhaps most importantly, seven are “plus” major league defenders.
If Tyler Moore is a better player than I foresee—or if the Nationals bring in a quality first baseman from the outside—this could be a contending offense. They have the right mix of power, contact and average to win a division if the pitching staff matures at the same rate.
We’ll look at them next time.
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