Back on June 2, I wondered if the Toronto Blue Jays could break the single season team home run record of 264 set by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. At the time of the post, the Blue Jays had hit 89 home runs in 53 games. That was a 1.68 home run per game pace which would put them at 272 home runs for the season.

Now, 73 games later, I thought it would be a good exercise to see if the Blue Jays were still at a pace to break the single season team home run record.

With two more home runs last night against the New York Yankees, the Blue Jays currently have 190 home runs in 126 games. That is a home run per game rate of 1.5 which is a slight drop from their 1.68 pace they set a couple of months ago.

At this rate, the Blue Jays would finish the season with 243 homers. That’s really good but not good enough to beat out the ’97 Mariners.

One guy that has tried to do everything he can to help the Blue Jays break this record is Jose Bautista. Bautista has clubbed 40 home runs and has exceeded everyone’s expectations.

While Bautista has done his part, it’s the other Blue Jay hitters that have slowed down. John Buck has only hit one HR in the last two months. Vernon Wells has four homers in the last two months.

The Blue Jays have also fallen off tremendously on the road. They have hit only 1.3 home runs on the road. The good news is that the Blue Jays have 11 more games at home than on the road to close out the season. They have hit 1.8 home runs at home.

So as the Blue Jays have fallen a little off their record pace, it doesn’t discount what they have done this year. They have become a very entertaining and fun team to watch.

And who knows? Maybe with some more home games, the Blue Jays can still break the Mariners’ record.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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