The list of starting pitchers set to hit free agency this winter reads like the notes in the margin of a Cy Young Award ballot.
One arm, though, could turn the market on its head—and he’s currently signed through 2016.
We’re talking about Stephen Strasburg, and if the Washington Nationals make him available, we’re also talking about an offseason game-changer.
To get this out of the way: There is no guarantee the Nats will move the hard-throwing right-hander and former No. 1 overall pick.
Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, two-fifths of the starting rotation on Opening Day, could bolt as free agents. And even with reserves in the minor leagues—including top prospect Lucas Giolito—the Nationals may be gun-shy about jettisoning Strasburg.
Then there’s the fact that, while Strasburg has some of the best raw stuff in baseball when he’s right, he’s coming off an enigmatic season.
Yes, Strasburg finished 2015 on a promising note, pitching into the eighth inning in three of his final five starts and racking up 57 strikeouts next to just five walks over that stretch.
But the 27-year-old former All-Star battled back and neck injuries and looked downright mediocre at times. On July 4, his ERA sat at an unsightly 5.16.
Still, all that said, Strasburg is a franchise talent, well worth a roll of the dice and a hefty package of prospects.
“I learned a lot about myself this year,” Strasburg said after his final outing on Oct. 1, per James Wagner of the Washington Post. “I’m just going to continue to try getting better every single day.”
So, will the Nats—who went from World Series favorites to a smoldering tire fire of disappointment—dangle him?
There are indications they will. In mid-September, Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported that Washington had “wide-ranging” talks with the Texas Rangers about Strasburg prior to the 2015 season. And on Oct. 18, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wrote that there is “a lot of buzz” surrounding a Strasburg trade.
If that’s true, if this is more than idle speculation, it’ll throw a serious wrench in the hot-stove machinery.
You’ve seen it before, but for a refresher, here’s a partial rundown of the pitchers who should be available to sign once the World Series wraps up, in addition to the aforementioned Zimmermann and Fister: David Price, Zack Greinke, Scott Kazmir, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, Marco Estrada—the list goes on.
As usual, the list of teams that’ll be shopping for pitching is also extensive, and includes the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox, MLB‘s top four payrolls, per Spotrac.com. You don’t need a crystal ball or advanced degree in economics to see some crazy bidding wars on the horizon.
If Strasburg is ripe for the picking, however, expect the market to develop slowly. Of the teams listed above, Los Angeles, New York and Boston all have the assets to swing a deal with Washington, which will likely seek a combination of blue-chip prospects and MLB-ready talent.
Add the Chicago Cubs, title-hungry after a trip to the National League Championship Series, to that list as well.
Even without a tantalizing trade target, top free agents can sit on the shelf for months. Last winter, recall that Max Scherzer, the big-ticket free-agent arm, didn’t sign until January 21, when he finalized his seven-year, $210 million deal with the Nationals.
But toss the possibility of a Strasburg blockbuster into the mix, and we could see an epic logjam, with top-tier names like Price and Greinke waiting and the rest of this deep pitching pool backed up indefinitely.
Everyone will sign eventually, of course. And maybe the Nats will decide early on that they want to keep Strasburg, making all of this a moot point.
With Scherzer already locked in for top dollar, though, and the possibility of inking another starter for far less than Strasburg will likely command when he hits free agency next year, this feels like a move Washington will seriously consider.
Last December, Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post outlined the unlikelihood of the Nationals re-upping Strasburg after the 2016 season:
Strasburg‘s agent is Scott Boras, who lives to set new contract records and usually represents players who agree with that view. The result: sayonara scenarios. [Owners the Lerner family] better not think they can use the money they are “saving” on Zimmermann or [Ian] Desmond to sign Strasburg a year from now because, in my view, a deal done on that schedule will never get done.
So that’s the argument, boiled down: Your franchise is in turmoil after a bitterly disappointing season. Strasburg is probably leaving for big money next year anyway. Shop him now and get something back.
If the Nats buy into that line of thinking, suitors will be circling early and often. The pitching market will grind to a halt. And an already-fascinating offseason will become even more compelling.
All statistics current as of Oct. 28 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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