On a full day of playoff baseball, the National League takes the Friday night shift to commence both NLDS matchups.
After eliminating the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday, the Chicago Cubs will now fight the St. Louis Cardinals for NL Central supremacy. Two veteran starters will collide to kick off their first-ever postseason meeting.
Like Chicago, the New York Mets will make their long-awaited playoff return. They’ll do so against the Los Angeles Dodgers, whom they beat in the 2006 NLDS of their last postseason appearance. That matters little now, as Clayton Kershaw was 18 at the time.
Let’s take a look at the pertinent info before breaking down both of Friday’s Game 1 showdowns.
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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Although the Cubs debuted an explosive batch of rookie position players poised to dominate down the road, their time wasn’t supposed to arrive this early. Yet the young squad finished with MLB‘s third-best record, and now they must top the best.
In his first year managing the team, Joe Maddon transformed a 73-win club into a championship contender. Per MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian, he expressed his eagerness to face baseball’s only 100-win team:
I’m really excited about it. I’m already excited about it. Everybody knows I grew up a Cardinal fan and I get this opportunity as a manager to work versus them in a Division Series in 2015. It’s pretty awesome, man. And beyond that, I don’t want to make it personal.
It’s about the players getting this opportunity to experience playoff baseball their first year out of the chute. That, down the road, is invaluable.
With Jake Arrieta needing rest from Wednesday’s complete-game shutout, the Cubs will look Jon Lester’s way. Despite starting his Cubs tenure on a sour note, the offseason signing concluded the season with a 3.34 ERA and 207 strikeouts. Over his last seven starts, the 31-year-old southpaw sported a 2.16 ERA.
Having faced the Cardinals five times during the season, Lester knows his adversary well. He escaped those outings with a 2.59 ERA, but he also relinquished five unearned runs. Pitchers are not always blameless for those scores.
Nevertheless, the matchup points in his favor. While normally a dangerous offense, St. Louis falls to the bottom of the pile against lefties:
Matt Carpenter, Jason Heyward, Kolten Wong and Matt Adams all struggle against same-handed pitchers, giving Lester a considerable advantage. While that same edge didn’t help Kershaw the last two Octobers, don’t assume an anomaly will keep repeating.
They don’t possess a dominant ace, but the Cardinals will feel comfortable calling John Lackey’s number. The veteran quietly compiled a 2.77 ERA through 218 innings, closing the season with 12 earned runs surrendered over nine starts.
Along with posting a 1.93 ERA at Busch Stadium, he held Chicago to three runs through as many starts this season. The 36-year-old will face as many as three rookies in his 19th career postseason start.
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Hey, Mets, good job on earning your first playoff appearance in nine years. Now go face Clayton Kershaw.
Arrieta or Zack Greinke—the Dodgers’ Game 2 starter—may block Kershaw from winning his fourth NL Cy Young Award, but the 27-year-old southpaw led all pitchers with an 8.6 WAR, 1.99 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and career-high 301 strikeouts.
ESPN Stats and Info highlighted his greatness:
Let’s get this out of the way: He has allowed 19 runs over his last four playoff starts, all against the Cardinals. For those who believe a 22.2-inning sample size speaks higher volumes than 1,611 regular-season innings from the best pitcher of this generation, cool. Otherwise, he’ll probably pitch well.
When he last faced the Mets on July 23, their offense was so futile that a no-hitter seemed probable. Instead, he allowed three whole hits in a complete-game shutout. Since then, however, the Mets have completely retooled their lineup.
Entering the All-Star break with baseball’s second-worst OPS behind the Chicago White Sox, they earned baseball’s fourth-best OPS after the Midsummer Classic.
Most of the credit (after giving Washington Nationals manager Matt Williams his proper thanks) will go to Yoenis Cespedes, who oversaw the turnaround by procuring a .604 slugging percentage in 57 games after getting dealt from the Detroit Tigers. It wasn’t all him, as Travis d’Arnaud and David Wright returned from injuries down the stretch, while rookie call-up Michael Conforto crushed from the start.
Yet the pitching kept them alive throughout their early offensive turmoil. He’s no Kershaw, but Jacob deGrom is no slouch.
Fresh off seizing NL Rookie of the Year honors last year, the 27-year-old recorded a 2.54 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 205 strikeouts. He leads a a deadly young rotation that led Cespedes to award his club the upper hand over a Dodgers squad with two Cy Young candidates.
ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin relayed what the outfielder told ESPN Deportes‘ Marly Rivera:
I would say in quality, in just pure talent, our pitching is superior to theirs. Whether things go well for us or not, that is another matter. But in terms of ability, our pitchers are so young, with great arms, a very good pitching staff. I think what they have to do is believe in themselves and get it into their heads that they can do this, and things will work out.
While the Mets don’t endure struggles against lefties akin to St. Louis, facing the best southpaw alive will expel Conforto to the bench and present a stark challenge for their other lefty batters (Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, and Daniel Murphy).
Despite the Dodgers’ exorbitant payroll, some lesser paid talent will get a chance to shine. Once they finally gave Corey Seager the shortstop reins over Jimmy Rollins, he hit .337/.561/.986 through 27 games. Since leaving the Mets two years ago, Justin Turner has transformed from a light-hitting utility man to a potent slugger carrying an .861 OPS.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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