After more than half a century of nothing, the city of Cleveland is nearing a realistic chance of getting two championships in less than a year.
The Cavaliers got it done by winning the NBA Finals, and now the Indians mean business with their pursuit of their first World Series title since 1948. They already have a team good enough for the American League‘s top record, and now it’s circling a catcher who can actually do things.
As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports was first to report Saturday night, the Indians have an agreement in place to acquire two-time All-Star Jonathan Lucroy from the Milwaukee Brewers. It seems the only thing the deal needs to become official is Lucroy’s willingness to waive his no-trade clause.
Although Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports notes Lucroy has “no apparent reason” not to want to switch sides from a 46-56 Brewers team to a 59-42 Indians team, he does have a leverage play to make. He’s earning $4 million this season with a $5.25 million club option for 2017. He may need the Indians to sweeten the deal for him to say yes.
If the Indians do that, they’ll be out some money in addition to some pretty good prospects. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports young catcher Francisco Mejia is in the deal; according to Rosenthal, so are shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang and outfielder Greg Allen.
Chang and Allen both check in among Cleveland’s top 30 prospects at MLB.com. Mejia, meanwhile, looks like a rising star. He landed at No. 70 on Baseball America‘s most recent top 100, and that may underrate him. The 20-year-old is a switch-hitter who’s currently riding a 42-game hit streak that’s pushed his batting average in 77 games at Single-A and High-A to .344.
But on the bright side, here’s a list of prospects the Indians apparently aren’t giving up, complete with their Baseball America rank:
- OF Clint Frazier (21)
- OF Bradley Zimmer (26)
- LHP Brady Aiken (59)
- 1B Bobby Bradley (64)
- LHP Justus Sheffield (69)
The Indians may not be about to rob the Brewers blind, but they’re not going to get looted, either. They would be keeping arguably all their best prospects and getting a guy who can help in return.
Actually, sorry. That should read “can really help.”
The Indians haven’t been hurting for offense this season, entering Saturday ranked sixth in the AL in OPS and fourth in runs. But their offensive attack has come to a screeching stop whenever the catcher is up. They began Saturday getting a .504 OPS from their catchers, the worst in baseball.
To this end, trading for Lucroy is like a man on a deserted island being rescued by a luxury cruise ship. The 30-year-old is hitting an even .300 with an .844 OPS and 13 home runs, which is in line with what he was doing at the plate the prior three years.
In between the good hitting was a down year in 2015. Lucroy battled injuries and hit just .264 with a .717 OPS in 103 games, leading to some skepticism about whether he could bounce back. But everything looks good now. He’s been healthy all year and has gotten back to driving the ball. His ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio has fallen from 1.52 to 1.05, and his hard-hit rate is at a career-best 36.7 percent.
Assuming Lucroy carries this performance over to Cleveland, he would do more than just fill the black hole the Tribe’s lineup has at catcher. His right-handed bat would also help balance out a unit that, Mike Napoli aside, is short on quality right-handed hitting.
Of course, Lucroy could also help the Indians on the other side of the ball.
The other quality he’s known for is his ability to frame strikes. Harry Pavlidis of Baseball Prospectus and Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs have highlighted how Lucroy has been slipping away from his reputation in that department, but he hasn’t yet become bad at it. Baseball Prospectus’ metrics put his framing right around average. StatCorner’s put it safely above average.
Cleveland pitchers haven’t been living with terrible framing in 2016, but it could be better. StatCorner’s metrics claim Chris Gimenez has been good, but Yan Gomes and Roberto Perez have not. And overall, the three haven’t stolen many strikes for their pitchers. According to Baseball Savant, only the Seattle Mariners and Oakland A’s have gotten fewer strike calls outside the zone than the Indians have.
If Lucroy were joining another pitching staff, this wouldn’t be something for other AL clubs to fret over. But this pitching staff? Different story.
With former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer leading the way, Cleveland starters are already first in the AL with a 3.68 ERA. Though Cleveland’s bullpen would look better with another shutdown arm to pair with Cody Allen and Dan Otero, it’s hardly a liability. Its 3.58 ERA is fifth in the AL.
All told, it’s hard to think of the Indians’ trading for another player who could have as profound an impact on their title chances as Lucroy.
And make no mistake: those title chances are already very good. The Indians’ AL-best record is backed up by the AL’s highest run differential. If you look at the current World Series odds at Baseball Prospectus, the American League favorites line up like so:
- Cleveland Indians: 17.9%
- Toronto Blue Jays: 8.3%
- Boston Red Sox: 8.1%
Assuming the trade goes through, odds are Cleveland’s already high number will go even higher. Any team that can hit and pitch as well as the Indians can is a good bet to go far in October. If he were indeed to improve both areas, it’ll be an even better bet.
The city of Cleveland should wait on scheduling the parade, of course. At least until Lucroy actually approves the trade and it goes through. But for now, there’s nothing wrong if anyone in Cleveland wants to start trying out the phrase “Title Town.”
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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