David Wright homered in his first game at Citi Field in 2010.  It looked like his 2009 struggles were behind him, but he’s now played 21 games at home and that is still his lone long ball.  Granted he has hit six HR on the road, but look at where they’ve come:

  • Coors Field – 2
  • Great American Ball Park – 2
  • Citizens Bank Park – 2

We would all agree that those are three hitters ballparks, so part of me has to take his power there with a grain of salt.  Maybe having played in those ballparks on the road has helped him to his unrealistic HR/FB of 24.1 percent.  While at first blush it does appear realistic, even throwing out last season’s 6.9 percent, it’s a number he’s never approached:

  • 2005 – 16.5%
  • 2006 – 12.4%
  • 2007 – 16.1%
  • 2008 – 16.7%

With his inability to hit for power at home and the likelihood of the power waning on the road, there’s a serious problem at hand.

If that were the only concern we could say that it was worth ignoring, but unfortunately there’s something else we need to discuss.

No one expected him to be able to replicate last season’s .394 BABIP, yet heading into yesterday’s game he was sitting at .397.  Could he possibly continue to be quite this lucky?

Probably not, but his strikeouts are taking a disturbing trend:

  • 2008 – 18.8%
  • 2009 – 26.2%
  • 2010 – 37.1%

It’s a small sample size (116 AB), but that’s a scary number.  I know, it’s slightly skewed by his streak earlier in the week where he struck out in eight consecutive at bats, but is that really an excuse?  There’s nothing with luck there, he is just flat out not making contact.

He was hitting .293 prior to Wednesday, a very realistic number for him.  You would think that while the luck may decrease, given his long track record the strikeouts should as well.  Seriously, he’s currently at a rate that would make Adam Dunn blush (career strikeout rate of 32.4 percent, but never worse than 34.6 percent).  Those two things should offset each other, meaning seeing him hit in the .295-.300 range is very realistic.

So, the average may not be a big concern and we know he has the speed, but the potential lack of power will significantly hurt his fantasy value.  Of course, at an extremely shallow position, he’s plenty usable.  Still, considering him outside the top six third baseman is not unimaginable.

Is this the time to try and trade him while others may still value him as a top three option (as many had him heading into the season)? 

If you can use him to get an Evan Longoria or another top option, then I think I would.  If you could use him to get a Top 15-20 player, then it would certainly make sense (assuming you have a viable replacement).  It’s not that you are going to lose out on him, assuming you get a top player in return, but you will be limiting your risk moving forward.

Are there any David Wright owners who have jumped ship?  I’d love to hear who you were able to get for him.  As for everyone else, what are your thoughts on Wright and his potential moving forward?

To read the previous article, click here .


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