The 2013 Home Run Derby is just around the corner and each league has a number of talented guys with unbelievable power.
While some players seem poised for quick exits, there are other players who look to have real staying power in the competition.
We’ll break down each league’s participants, giving a sense of which players have the best chance of winning.
National League
Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper has 13 home runs in 193 at-bats this season and hey have traveled an average distance of 400.9 feet, per the ESPN Home Run Tracker.
Harper’s power is tremendous and his personality fits the Derby well. It would not be surprising to see him advance far.
Harper has the most raw power of anyone in the National League, which gives him a really good chance of making the finals. He missed all of June due to injury and has just hit one home run in July. It will be interesting to see if the time off hurts his rhythm.
If he can get into a rhythm, though, there’s really nothing stopping him from reaching the final. If he looks like he’s in a good groove in the first round, he’ll challenge some of the veteran sluggers.
Pedro Alvarez
Carlos Gonzalez was set to participate in the Derby, but due to injury, he will not participate. According to the SportsCenter Twitter page, Pedro Alvarez will replace him:
Alvarez’s one good trait this season is his power. His 24 home runs is second in the NL behind Carlos Gonzalez and his 25 bombs. Despite his power numbers, he’s only batting .253 and has struck out a remarkable 108 times.
But his power is real. His homers travel an average of 405.9 feet, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker.
Alvarez is coming in hot, too. He’s hit 16 home runs in his last 40 games, along with 40 RBI.
He’s better suited for the Derby than he is for an all-around game. He has great power, and if he gets on a roll he could win the whole thing.
He’s a sleeper and has a real shot upsetting the favorites.
David Wright
David Wright has just 13 home runs, and it’s possible that he’s only in the event because it is taking place in his home park.
That said, he was the runner-up in 2006 when he hit 22 home runs, just one behind Ryan Howard’s 23. In competitions, Wright’s power does come through.
But that was seven years ago. He’s hit just three home runs at Citi Field this season, and only 37 of his 87 home runs have come at his home park since it opened in 2009.
Wright will have the crowd behind him, but given his struggles at home, it’s hard to see him advancing far.
Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer was an interesting selection. He has 15 home runs this season but is batting .332 with 52 RBI.
Perhaps he’s a better hitter than a pure home run guy. That said, his homers have traveled an average of 403.1 feet, per the ESPN Home Run Tracker.
The big question is how he’ll respond in Citi Field, a notorious pitcher’s park. He has hit nine of his home runs in hitter-friendly Coors Field, for an average of 398.2 feet. In all other parks, his homers travel 405.5 feet, but he’s only hit six away.
That means that while he can hit the ball far, he doesn’t do it too often. He could have trouble in Citi Field. Some of his homers may be bombs, but he won’t hit enough to advance past the first round.
American League
Yoenis Cespedes
Yoenis Cespedes was a bit of an interesting choice for the Derby. While he does have 15 home runs, he’s in the midst of a pretty bad season. He’s batting just .221 and has a pitiful .285 OBP.
There’s no doubting his raw power, though, as his homers travel an average of 408.5 feet, per ESPN Home Run Tracker. He also hit a 440-foot bomb in Seattle’s Safeco Field, a park that is notoriously difficult for hitters.
Still, the fact that he’s struggling so much is concerning.
Cespedes is the fourth Home Run Derby participant to not be selected to the All-Star team, according to USA Today. He was not deserving of an all-star spot, and he should’ve stayed home for the Derby, too.
Prince Fielder
Prince Fielder is the defending champ, as he hit 28 home runs to win it last year. He also won the event in 2010.
Fielder obviously knows how to perform well in this event. But he’s in a bit of a slump this year. He has 16 home runs this season, but just four since June 6.
When he does hit it out, it only travels an average of 394.8 feet, according to the ESPN Home Run Tracker. That’s a steep decline from 2012, where his homers traveled an average of 405.9 feet, per the ESPN Home Run Tracker.
This has the makings of a disappointing Derby for Fielder. He should get past the first round, but it would be surprising to see him advance any further than that.
Robinson Cano
Robinson Cano won the Home Run Derby in 2011, but followed it up with a dud in 2012, where he did not even hit a single home run.
Still, despite the disappointing showing last year in Kansas City, Cano has incredible power and is a real contender to win it all. With his smooth, left-handed swing, Cano should love the 338 feet down the right field line.
Cano has 21 home runs this year, although his home runs have come in streaks. He hit only three long balls in June, as part of a down month in which he only hit .275.
But July has been kind to Cano, as he’s hitting .405 with four home runs.
Cano will rebound in this year’s derby. He’s one of the favorites, and it would be a shock if he repeats his performance from last year.
Chris Davis
Chris Davis is having an absolutely remarkable season. He leads the league with 35 home runs, which is already the highest he has ever hit in a season.
He’s batting .313 with 88 RBI as a contender for the MVP award.
He’s also the favorite to win the Derby. He has incredible power to all fields, and his homers travel an average distance of 401.8 feet, as per the ESPN Home Run Tracker.
This is his first all-star appearance, but that shouldn’t slow him down. His power is perfectly suited for this event, and he is seeing the ball well.
Davis will likely get to the finals, where he has a good shot of taking home the title.
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