Outfield has become a surprisingly unpredictable position to rank for 2011. There are numerous players who have underperformed, overperformed or missed significant time with injuries. This list, more then any of the others we’ve done, is unstable. Consider players in the same area fairly interchangeable, as values will change dramatically depending on second half production.
With that said, let’s take a look at how things currently look heading into next season for those of us who are rebuilding (remember, these can, and probably will, change dramatically by the end of the season):
- Ryan Braun—Milwaukee Brewers
- Matt Kemp—Los Angeles Dodgers
- Matt Holliday—St. Louis Cardinals
- Carl Crawford—Tampa Bay Rays
- Andre Ethier—Los Angeles Dodgers
- Josh Hamilton—Texas Rangers
- Justin Upton—Arizona Diamondbacks
- Nelson Cruz—Texas Rangers
- Alex Rios—Chicago White Sox
- Carlos Gonzalez—Colorado Rockies
- Jason Heyward—Atlanta Braves
- Jason Bay—New York Mets
- Andrew McCutchen—Pittsburgh Pirates
- Shin-Soo Choo—Cleveland Indians
- Jayson Werth—Philadelphia Phillies
- Carlos Beltran—New York Mets
- Ben Zobrist—Tampa Bay Rays
- Ichiro Suzuki—Seattle Mariners
- Adam Jones—Baltimore Orioles
- Vladimir Guerrero—Texas Rangers
- Adam Dunn—Washington Nationals
- Grady Sizemore—Cleveland Indians
- Jacoby Ellsbury—Boston Red Sox
- Hunter Pence—Houston Astros
- Jay Bruce—Cincinnati Reds
- Colby Rasmus—St. Louis Cardinals
- Nick Markakis—Baltimore Orioles
- Denard Span—Minnesota Twins
- Carlos Quentin—Chicago White Sox
- Mike Stanton—Florida Marlins
- Chris Young—Arizona Diamondbacks
- Shane Victorino—Philadelphia Phillies
- Corey Hart—Milwaukee Brewers
- Curtis Granderson—New York Yankees
- B.J. Upton—Tampa Bay Rays
Thoughts:
- For how unpredictable the outfield position has been in 2010, it’s amazing that the top four remain constant. Those are the elite of the position and that doesn’t appear likely to change. After that, however, the field is wide open and will likely change dramatically over the next few weeks and months.
- I know Jason Bay has not lived up to expectations, but it’s not like he has been awful either. Given his track record, a bad three months isn’t enough to drop him outside of the Top 12. If the power doesn’t return in the second half, however, he will quickly plummet down the rankings.
- If Nelson Cruz could ever remain healthy for an entire season, he’d likely be a Top Five option. Unfortunately, we have still yet to see that happen. Still, he’s proven that even with missing a little bit of time, he’s one of the best the position has to offer.
- For as good as Vladimir Guerrero has been, does anyone really believe that he can keep it going for the rest of the second half, or even into 2011? Still, with his first half resurgence, he has to be viewed as a No. 2 outfielder (assuming he has eligibility in your league).
- Despite the injury that now has him on the sidelines, Shin Soo-Choo proved that he has the potential to go 20/20 every season and sooner or later, could develop into a 30/30 threat. That makes him one of the better options in all formats.
- Jayson Werth is likely to change teams, so depending on where he lands we’ll have to adjust his value, either up or down.
- I’m a big believer in Nick Markakis, but yet again he appears to have failed to take that next step forward. There’s still time, but at this point it appears impossible to consider him a Top 15 outfielder for next season. As a low-end No. 2 option, maybe, but nothing more than that.
- Does anyone really believe that Adam Lind is this bad? He’s got to turn it around sooner or later and will likely rebuild his value for 2011. I’m not giving up on him yet and I see him as a great buy low candidate for the second half (you can view my five second half buy low candidates by clicking here ).
- Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran are both extremely tough players to rank at this point, given the injuries that have plagued them as of late. At least we’ll get a good idea if Beltran will be able to return to the player he once was in the second half. With Sizemore, it’s all a matter on if you believe he can rebound or not.
- Domonic Brown has the potential to crack this list, if he makes an impact before year’s end. For more on him, check out my recent Prospect Report by clicking here .
- Mike Stanton’s early struggles have suppressed his potential value, but you can see the power starting to come around. He certainly has the potential to fly up these rankings if he proves his power will translate to the Major Leagues.
What are your thoughts on these rankings? Who is being overvalued? Who is being undervalued?
Make sure to check out our other extremely early 2011 rankings:
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