If we were discussing Aramis Ramirez three years ago, things may be a little bit different.  From 2004-2006, he averaged 35 HR a year.

He followed that up with years of 26 and 27 HR (though he had over 100 RBI in each of those seasons).  He was considered one of the better options at third base, and rightfully so.

The past two years, however, have dramatically changed our opinion of him.  He’s missed time in both 2009 and 2010 thanks to a dislocated shoulder and bruised thumb.

If that were the only problem, then maybe he wouldn’t have fallen so far.  However, his 2010 campaign was not very impressive overall:

465 At Bats
.241 Batting Average (112 Hits)
25 Home Runs
83 RBI
61 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.294 On Base Percentage
.452 Slugging Percentage
.245 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously the average was bad, but there are two clear-cut reasons for it.  First of all, his BABIP, which has to jump out at you.  That’s a tremendously unlucky number on the surface, though there is a little bit more behind it.

Since 2002, Ramirez has posted a fly ball rate of 45.7%.  In 2010 his mark was at 56.8%.  If that wasn’t enough, he had just one previous season higher than 46.7% (48.3% in ’08). 

There is a lot less “luck” involved in fly balls, so while the BABIP may seem unlucky on the surface, given the fly ball rate, it shouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Then again, you have to think that his fly ball rate is going to decline back towards his career rate.  He has too long of a history of being in the mid-40s to think that last year’s number is believable.

It is possible that he was trying to hit more home runs in order to prove that his shoulder injury was not a concern.  Maybe there is another excuse. 

Whatever the answer, I would look for him to correct it prior to the 2011 season.

The other concern with his average was his strikeout rate.  He has a career strikeout rate of 15.5%, though he posted a 19.4% mark in 2010.  Again, given his career history, you have to expect him to correct the problem prior to 2011.

He’s a .282 career hitter, though he had been above that mark every season since 2004:

  • 2004 – .318
  • 2005 – .302
  • 2006 – .291
  • 2007 – .310
  • 2008 – .289
  • 2009 – .317

Are we supposed to believe that he simply forgot how to hit?  He’s more than a year removed from the shoulder problem, so it is safe to think that it is not going to be a lingering issue. 

You wouldn’t expect him to get back to his mid-to-high 30 HR days, but once again coming in between 25-30, even with an expected drop in fly ball rate, is fair.

Couple the power and the expected average rebound with hitting in the middle of the Cubs order and there is a lot to like.  We all know what type of potential he has, and at 32 years old, it is fair to assume that he hasn’t simply lost his skill. 

Third base is an extremely weak position, and getting him around Round 9 or 10 is certainly worth the gamble if you miss out on the top options.  Just look at the other options that are going after him (on average according to Mock Draft Central):

  • Casey McGehee
  • Ian Stewart
  • Mark Reynolds
  • Pablo Sandoval

Outside of Sandoval (maybe), is there anyone that you would trust more? 

What are your thoughts of Ramirez?  Is he a player you wouldn’t mind owning as your 3B?  Why or why not?

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