Every season we seem to talk about Nick Markakis and his breakout potential—and every season we are sorely disappointed with the results.  While he has always been solid, though unspectacular, the 2010 season was, by far, his worst:

  • 629 At Bats
  • .297 Batting Average (187 Hits)
  • 12 Home Runs
  • 60 RBI
  • 79 Runs
  • 7 Stolen Bases
  • .370 On Base Percentage
  • .436 Slugging Percentage
  • .331 Batting Average on Balls in Play

The average was still solid, but after that, is there really anything to get excited about?  Just look at his trends from the prior three seasons:

  • Three straight years of at least 94 R (including a year of 106).
  • Three straight years of at least 87 RBI (including two years of over 100).

The fact that he fell so far in the counting stats is quite worrisome.  Of course, the fact that the Orioles lineup in general was terrible didn’t help things.  The injury to Brian Roberts left the team short at the top, making generating runs a lot more difficult.

In the middle, they didn’t get the expected contributions from their young sluggers like Matt Wieters, just further weakening things.

In 2011, that should certainly be rectified.  Roberts is healthy, at least for now.  The team took a lot of pressure of Markakis and Co. by adding Vladimir Guerrero, Mark Reynolds and Derrek Lee.  In other words, this is a lineup with a lot of pop.

Markakis should slide back as the full-time No. 2 hitter, a role that he fits extremely well.  He has consistently shown great OBP potential (.368 for his career) and extra base power (43 or more doubles each of the past four seasons).  With the major upgrades to the lineup, seeing him return to the days of 90-plus runs seems like a given.

The power was probably the biggest disappointment from 2010.  At this point it seems fair to say that he’s never going to be a top home run hitter, but 12 just doesn’t seem possible.  With all of the doubles we’ve already mentioned, one would think that some of them could start finding their way over the fence.  You also have to look at his HR/FB from last season and expect an improvement:

  • 2006 – 13.1 percent
  • 2007 – 11.6 percent
  • 2008 – 12.6 percent
  • 2009 – 8.0 percent
  • 2010 – 6.1 percent

Are we really supposed to believe that he has just suddenly lost the power potential he showed his first three seasons?  I’m not talking about him developing into a 30 HR hitter, but thinking that he will return to 18-plus is reasonable.  In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him close in on 25, given what he’s shown in the past.

So, we are talking about an outfielder who has consistently proven that he can hit right around .300.  Throw in the potential to score 90-plus runs and hit 20-plus HR and there is a lot to like.  While he doesn’t offer speed and may not top 80 RBI in the No. 2 hole, there is still more than enough to like.

He currently has an ADP of 107.71 according to Mock Draft Central and is the 29th outfielder coming off the board.  That is after guys like Alfonso Soriano, Grady Sizemore and Vernon Wells.  Clearly the value is there, making him a solid selection on draft day.

What are your thoughts on Markakis?  Do you think his current draft spot is a good value?  What type of production do you think is possible in 2011?

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