A player can turn out to be a bust for a number of different reasons when it comes to fantasy baseball, and it’s all about trying to identify and avoid those busts on draft day.
Regression is the most obvious reason for a player to bust, as banking on a player matching the previous year’s production is not always a sound strategy.
Stats like batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and fielder independent pitching (FIP) serve as useful tools in predicting regression in batting average and ERA, while a player’s track record also has to be taken into account.
Players who present a serious injury risk also have to be approached with caution, as grabbing someone early in the draft with a lengthy track record of visits to the disabled list can leave you down a key player.
Then there’s simply the matter of a player being drafted too high. It doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not a useful fantasy player, but when your second-round pick delivers sixth-round value, he’s a bust.
Players at risk of losing playing time, players who changed teams in the offseason to a less hitter- or pitcher-friendly park and players getting on in years all bring various levels of bust potential.
So with all of that in mind, what follows is a look at our “do not draft” list in an effort to avoid busts, with three players from each position highlighted and the reason to avoid them made clear.
Note: This article is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard five-by-five rotisserie scoring for hitters (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB) and pitchers (W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV). Lineup construction assumes 22 active roster positions, consisting of one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.
All average draft positions referenced in the following article come courtesy of FantasyPros and reflect a cumulative average of multiple fantasy sites.