To counterbalance our own Spring Training positional rankings for starting pitchers, beginning with the Top 40 and then secondary Top 40 (Nos. 41-80), here are the current average draft positional values at Mock Draft Central.
Rounds 1-4
Justin Verlander, Tigers (7th overall)
Roy Halladay, Phillies (15th overall)
Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (17th overall)
Cliff Lee, Phillies (21st overall)
Tim Lincecum, Giants (25th overall)
Felix Hernandez, Mariners (28th overall)
CC Sabathia, Yankees (29th overall)
Cole Hamels, Phillies (30th overall)
Jered Weaver, Angels (34th overall)
David Price, Rays (36th overall)
Dan Haren, Angels (42nd overall)
Zack Greinke, Brewers (45th overall)
Yovani Gallardo, Brewers (46th overall)
Breakdown
1. It’s hardly a shock that Verlander and Halladay were the first ones off most boards. Verlander is coming off a Cy Young/MVP season—setting the bar impossibly high—and Halladay has been the most dominant real-world and fantasy pitcher over the last five seasons.
2. Kershaw is my top-ranked pitcher in mixed roto leagues, so obviously, I would support a No. 17 value. However, it’s imperative that prepared fantasy owners have a game plan for the later rounds, if they’re going to splurge on a high-end pitcher in the first three picks. My general rule for the first eight rounds of 12-team drafts: Six formidable hitters and two starting pitchers with a high capacity for strikeouts and WHIP.
3. I would be thrilled to land either Hamels or Weaver midway through Round 3, provided they’re the ace of the fantasy rotation. As stated above, it’s wonderful to have elite pitching early on, but the later rounds are full of great values with starting pitching—not the case for third base, shortstop or leagues that require five starting outfield spots.
4. To be honest, I would rather draft a hitter at 46, or a pitcher like Matt Cain, Jon Lester or Ian Kennedy. But I’m nitpicking here.
Rounds 5-8
Jon Lester, Red Sox (50th overall)
Matt Cain, Giants (59th overall)
Stephen Strasburg, Nationals (65th overall)
James Shields, Rays (66th overall)
Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks (69th overall)
Mat Latos, Reds (70th overall)
Madison Bumgarner, Giants (74th overall)
C.J. Wilson, Rangers (83rd overall)
Daniel Hudson, Diamondbacks (85th overall)
Ricky Romero, Blue Jays (86th overall)
Josh Beckett, Red Sox (90th overall)
Tommy Hanson, Braves (92nd overall)
Breakdown
1. I realize Strasburg is only 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery, but when fully healthy, his track record for excellence in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, K/9, BB/9—and any other stat you can find—resembles that of a top-5 pitcher. In other words, I would happily risk a Round 6 pick for a potential monster.
2. Matt Cain also has stellar value in the middle rounds. In six full seasons with the Giants, he’s had very few peaks and valleys—a quality prized by roto-league gurus. Cain’s only drawback is he has yet to earn 15 victories in a given year. That hurdle will hopefully be cleared in 2012.
3. It shouldn’t hurt Wilson’s cause that he signed with the deep and talented Angels, giving him a reasonable chance to match last year’s 16 wins, 2.94 ERA and 206 strikeouts. And yet, the 83rd pick may be a half-round too high, especially with Matt Garza, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Pineda and Adam Wainwright still available for public consumption. All in all, not too bad.
Rounds 9-12
Michael Pineda, Yankees (98th overall)
Josh Johnson, Marlins (100th overall)
Matt Moore, Rays (104th overall)
Adam Wainwright, Cardinals (107th overall)
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals (108th overall)
Matt Garza, Cubs (109th overall)
Johnny Cueto, Reds (112th overall)
Brandon Beachy, Braves (114th overall)
Jordan Zimmermann, Nationals (117th overall)
Yu Darvish, Rangers (124th overall)
Chris Carpenter, Cardinals (125th overall)
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (127th overall)
Anibal Sanchez, Marlins (129th overall)
Cory Luebke, Padres (135th overall)
Tim Hudson, Braves (136th overall)
Breakdown
1. Hellickson and Luebke stand as ideal values for Round 11 and 12, respectively. The only aspects precluding Hellickson from greatness are 1) more major-league seasoning, and 2) cutting down on walks (it seems that No. 1 will eventually take care of No. 2). As for Luebke, he has thrown more strikeouts than innings at nearly every level of pro ball. He could easily be the Padres’ ace by season’s end.
2. As mentioned in the Top 40 starters preview, Wainwright may only be on a short-term respite from baseball’s elite pitchers. When fully healthy, he’s a top-10 fantasy talent and thus, a superb flier pick anywhere past 100. The hype for Darvish will be high throughout March, not unlike that of Daisuke Matsuzaka in his first year with the Red Sox. But I’m OK with that, since Darvish had a long-standing track record of ERA, WHIP and strikeout excellence in Japan. Let’s hope the adjustment period to North and South American hitters is relatively quick.
3. Zimmermann has the physical tools to be a formidable fantasy pitcher, but 117th may be 10-15 slots too high. He likely needs more time to unlock his vast potential.
Rounds 13-16
Shaun Marcum, Brewers (146th overall)
Max Scherzer, Tigers (147th overall)
Ervin Santana, Angels (150th overall)
Ubaldo Jimenez, Indians (154th overall)
Derek Holland, Rangers (167th overall)
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros (170th overall)
Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees (172nd overall)
Jaime Garcia, Cardinals (177th overall)
Trevor Cahill, Diamondbacks (179th overall)
Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays (180th overall)
Doug Fister, Tigers (185th overall)
John Danks, White Sox (191st overall)
Breakdown
1. Holland has solid long-term prospects, but I’m not buying a guy with a 1.35 WHIP for 16 wins in consecutive seasons. Yes, he’ll get a ton of run support, but his range for the year is probably 13-15 victories. That said, Round 14 is decent value.
2. I would dance a 20-minute jig around my condo upon landing Jimenez at some point in Round 13. He’s only two years removed from a dominant campaign with the Rockies (19 wins, 2.88 ERA, 214 strikeouts, 1.16 WHIP) and was traded to a club (the Indians) that should contend for the second AL wild-card spot. Unless Jimenez has a dead arm or a balky elbow, he’s a good bet to recapture his old mojo.
3. A highly touted prospect with the Athletics, Cahill has plenty of time to right the ship with his new team, the Diamondbacks. First order of business: Limiting his walks. That alone should satisfy the owners who draft Cahill in Round 15.
4. If Fister resembles anything close to last year’s production with the Tigers (8 wins in 11 starts, 1.79 ERA, 57 strikeouts in 70 innings, 0.84 WHIP), his Round 16 acquisition would classify as an absolute heist. Fister is the 2012 version of the ultimate no-brainer flier pick!
Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.
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