The Chicago Cubs are hearing footsteps, and they’re coming from the West.
Yes, the Cubs still own MLB‘s best run differential at plus-155. And they still have the best winning percentage in baseball.
On Sunday, however, the San Francisco Giants won their 49th game. At 49-28, San Francisco now has one more victory than the Cubs, who have dropped six of their last seven and sit at 48-26.
That may seem academic, and in a way, it is. They don’t hand out trophies based on late-June win totals.
But the surging Giants—who have won 13 of their last 15—are looking increasingly capable of challenging Chicago for National League supremacy.
This is the part where we’re obligated to mention it’s an even year. In 2010, 2012 and 2014, that meant orange and black confetti cascading down Market Street.
This isn’t about numerical anomalies, though. This is about a San Francisco squad that has weathered injuries and ridden shutdown top-of-the-rotation pitching to, if not the top of the heap, at least somewhere in the vicinity.
It begins with Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto, a two-headed lefty/right monster and arguably the best starting duo in the game.
Cueto took a no-decision in Sunday’s seesaw, 8-7 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, coughing up six earned runs in six innings. Still, at 11-1 with a 2.42 ERA, he’s putting together an ace-like campaign in his first season by the Bay.
Bumgarner, the Giants’ decorated postseason horse, owns an even stingier 1.99 ERA and has fanned 122 in 108.1 innings, putting him on pace to record a career-best 10.1 strikeouts per nine-innings.
Behind them, Jeff Samardzija sports an 8-4 record and 3.59 ERA one season after leading both leagues in hits, earned runs and home runs allowed with the Chicago White Sox.
Some of the credit for Samardzija’s resurgence—and the Giants’ current fortunes in general—belongs to the best team defense in baseball.
Gold Glove shortstop Brandon Crawford stands out, but San Francisco has plus defenders scattered all over the field and Buster Posey—MLB’s pre-eminent pitch-framer, per StatCorner—behind the dish.
Offensively, the loss of right fielder Hunter Pence to a hamstring surgery and third baseman Matt Duffy to an Achilles injury have dinged the Giants.
But they’ve gotten an unexpected lift from the likes of journeyman infielder Ramiro Pena, who has supplanted Duffy and is hitting .400 in 25 at-bats.
That’s where the even-year talk creeps in, the sense that the Giants will simply find a way to win in years divisible by two.
But with core contributors such as first baseman Brandon Belt (.306 average, .941 OPS), Posey (.285 average, .806 OPS) and Crawford (.262 average, 44 RBI) leading the way, this offense is far more than smoke and mirrors.
There are question marks at the back of the rotation, with Matt Cain on the disabled list and veteran Jake Peavy toting an unsightly 5.22 ERA despite a run of recent positive results.
The bullpen, too, has wobbled at times, and the Giants could look for relief reinforcements at the trade deadline. They might also go shopping for an outfield bat, though that will be less of a priority if Pence keeps progressing in his recovery.
The Cubs remain a juggernaut, recent mini-slump aside. They’re third in the National League—and ahead of the Giants—in runs scored and OPS, and they pace baseball in ERA. They’re still young, still hungry and still loaded.
ESPN The Magazine‘s Buster Olney placed San Francisco third in his most recent power rankings, behind both Chicago and the 49-27 Texas Rangers:
Remember, though, the Giants took two out of three from the Cubs in May, when Chicago was rolling with a full head of steam. And while the Cubs threw out co-aces Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in that series, the Giants used neither Cueto nor former Cub Samardzija.
Circle your calendars for Sept. 1, then, when the two teams kick off a four-game set at Wrigley Field that should be ripe with playoff implications.
Yes, a lot can—and will—happen between now and then. Based on what we’ve seen so far, however, that figures to be a titanic clash.
Other Senior Circuit contenders such as the Washington Nationals, New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals will have their say. But that September showdown could well be a National League Championship Series preview.
Fittingly, Sunday’s win wasn’t merely the one that edged the Giants ahead of the Cubs. It was also the 800th victory of manager Bruce Bochy’s San Francisco tenure. More than anyone outside of Posey and Bumgarner, Bochy has been the backbone of the team’s championship troika.
“They trust everybody,” Pena said after doubling and scoring the winning run Sunday, per Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area. “Bochy says we trust all the young guys and the guys in Triple-A who get called up to the big leagues. They trust everybody here.”
Now, the Cubs had better trust this: Those footsteps are real. The Giants are coming.
All statistics current as of June 26 and courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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