After his May 31 start where he gave up six runs, two homers, and three walks in just over five innings, the over-reactors are in full force. Fortunately his name is not Cole Hamels, or people would be looking to cut him already.
As always when someone is doing worse or better, than normal, people will look to find a reason. In my opinion, when you start hearing a multitude of reasons, the chances are much greater that they really have no clue.
Lee’s current 3.98 ERA is no way indicative of his ability. In fact, I believe you can make a better argument that this year could be his best yet. With an xFIP of 2.63 and SIERA of 2.81, good for fourth and third in baseball, respectively, suggests he’s having a great year. They also beat last year’s career-best marks of 3.06 and 3.03.
The main cause for such a jump is his strikeout rate. Increasing over two batters per nine innings will tend to do that. His increased strikeout rate does not appear to be a fluke, either.
His swinging-strike percentage (9.8 percent) and contact percentage (79.5 percent) would be career bests over a full season.
As far as the primary luck stats go, his BABIP is over 40 points higher than his career norm and his home runs to fly ball ratio is a shade higher than normal.
However, I wanted to make it a priority delving into topics I hear people announce as being his problem, such as his control and release points.