Before we inject some Debbie Downer realism into the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ champagne-soaked celebration, let’s pause to appreciate what they’ve accomplished.
By defeating Madison Bumgarner and the archrival San Francisco Giants 8-0 Tuesday night, the Dodgers clinched their third consecutive National League West title. That’s no mean feat, considering three of the other five division winners this season will likely be teams that didn’t even make the playoffs last year.
In fact, it’s the first time in franchise history the Dodgers have won three straight division crowns.
“What a relief that we’ve been able to accomplish this,” manager Don Mattingly told SportsNet LA’s Alanna Rizzo immediately after the game. “We got into the dance, and now we’ve just got to take care of business.”
The Dodgers are ticketed for the National League Division Series, where they lost last year to the St. Louis Cardinals, who also knocked them out in the National League Championship Series in 2013.
This time, L.A. will miss the Cards in the first round and face the NL East champion New York Mets.
In any event, the Dodgers enter October with some serious, potentially fatal flaws.
Yes, their starting rotation—and, indeed, entire roster—is anchored by co-aces Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, who will likely finish in the top three in NL Cy Young balloting (the Chicago Cubs‘ Jake Arrieta is the only non-Dodger with a shot at the prize).
Kershaw was simply brilliant in Tuesday’s clincher, twirling nine innings of one-hit, no-run ball with 13 strikeouts.
And all you need to do is glance at Greinke’s ridiculous 1.68 ERA to understand what he’s accomplished this season.
Still, as I recently argued, it’s unreasonable for the Dodgers to expect Greinke and Kershaw, great as they are, to carry the franchise across the Fall Classic finish line the way Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling did for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001.
We’re living in the era of pitch counts, matchups and late-inning relief specialists. Los Angeles’ two-headed mound monster can do a lot, and Kershaw has a lot to prove, what with his unsightly 5.12 postseason ERA. But they can’t do it alone.
For the Dodgers to end their 27-year championship drought, they’ll need another starting pitcher to chip in.
Alex Wood has had his moments since L.A. acquired him from the Atlanta Braves at the trade deadline, but the 24-year-old left-hander has coughed up a whopping eight runs in two of his last four starts (to be fair, the most recent one was in Colorado).
And Brett Anderson, another lefty, has failed to get out of the fifth inning in his last two trips to the hill, yielding a total of 20 hits and 11 runs.
That suggests the bullpen will play a big role, and the reviews there are mixed.
Closer Kenley Jansen has been excellent, posting a 2.36 ERA and converting 34 of 36 save opportunities. After that, things get dicey.
Right-hander Chris Hatcher has emerged as a reliable setup option, posting a 1.29 ERA, with 17 strikeouts in 14 innings since Aug. 31. And lefty J.P. Howell owns a 1.50 ERA in 12 games over the same stretch.
Still, overall the Dodgers’ relief core carries easily the highest ERA of any NL postseason club. If it’s not an outright weakness, it’s at least a hold-your-breath kind of thing going into October, when every inning and every out is magnified.
On offense, uncertainty also abounds. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez is an All-Star-caliber run producer, and shortstop Corey Seager is hitting .333 since an early September call-up.
But with formerly scalding rookie Joc Pederson mired in an extended cold streak and one-time Cuban spark plug Yasiel Puig on the disabled list, Los Angeles’ lineup is lacking, particularly in the power department, as Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times highlighted:
They don’t have the kind of late-inning pop that dramatically, historically has helped the Dodgers to championships. Hello, Kirk Gibson.
Listen to these numbers: They’re 21-26 in one-run games, they’re 6-9 in extra-inning games and they’re 5-47 when trailing or tied after the eighth inning.
Some of that can be laid at the feet of Mattingly, whose strategic machinations don’t always inspire confidence. In the final analysis, though, you live and die with the talent on the field. And while the Dodgers, owners of baseball’s biggest payroll, have some legitimate stars, they’ve got a few black holes as well.
Clinching the division with a week to spare will allow L.A. to line up its rotation and rest its regulars, including guys such as third baseman Justin Turner and catcher Yasmani Grandal, who have both battled injuries.
And certainly if you’re not going to celebrate with the blue-bleeding faithful at Chavez Ravine, doing it at AT&T Park in front of a bunch of bummed-out Giants fans is a fine consolation prize.
Enjoy it for now, L.A. Because when the champagne dries and the autumn tournament begins, you’ll have work to do—and some pressing questions to answer.
All statistics current as of Sept. 29 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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