There are three big winners of the mega-contract David Price signed on Tuesday. One is obviously Price, who is now filthy rich. Another is the Boston Red Sox, who finally have their ace.
The third is Zack Greinke. Not because he’s getting a cut of Price’s deal—that would be weird—but because it all but ensures either the Los Angeles Dodgers or the San Francisco Giants will give him one of his own.
If you missed it, Price did indeed come off the market on Tuesday. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe was the first to report, the pitching-needy Red Sox picked him up on a seven-year contract worth $217 million, the largest ever given to a pitcher.
Like that, Price joins Jordan Zimmermann among the free-agent aces who are now spoken for. Word is that Greinke could be next, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today saying it’s up to the Dodgers and Giants:
Here’s a one-word knee-jerk reaction: duh.
Though Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the Red Sox were in on Greinke before landing Price, the rumor mill has been suggesting all winter the veteran right-hander will either re-sign with the Dodgers or take the ol‘ NL West ferry up north to join the Giants. The notion the two are poised for a bidding war over Greinke isn’t anything new.
What is new in the wake of Price’s pact, however, is we now have an idea of what it will take for either of the two NL West rivals to sign Greinke.
Because Greinke, 32, is two years older than Price, he can’t hope to match the length of Price’s new contract. But according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, Greinke wants to earn more per year:
Rosenthal has also indicated the average annual value of Greinke‘s next deal could surpass that of Price’s. He also expects it to cover five or six years, which could make Greinke‘s next contract worth as much as $190 million.
That, friends, is obviously a lot of money. Just don’t call it an outrageous amount. Greinke is presuming to be a better investment than Price, and he just might be.
For starters, there is the fact Greinke just led all of Major League Baseball with a 1.66 ERA in 2015, which was also the lowest ERA in 20 years. Over the previous three seasons, Baseball-Reference.com WAR posits that Greinke has been significantly more valuable than Price:
Further, it doesn’t hurt that Greinke can easily sell his suitors on the idea he can age without his best stuff. He’s already proven he can. That’s a big reason why Crasnick‘s recent poll of MLB executives resulted in Greinke being the preferred option over Price for a nine-figure deal.
“Greinke is an easy one here,” said one AL scout. “His delivery is too good, his control and command too spot on, his pitchability too high. He’s got athleticism and he’s intelligent—all the characteristics you need to age gracefully. I am not saying Price does not possess these same characteristics. I just don’t think he has them at the advanced levels that Greinke has them.”
In short, Greinke is far from out of his mind in demanding more money per year than Price. Based on his recent track record and his pitching style, he has the right idea.
And man-oh-man has he picked the right two teams to pitch this idea to.
Now that the Red Sox have Price, the Dodgers and Giants have both moved up a notch on the list of teams that desperately need an impact starter.
Behind the ever-awesome Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have only question marks and injury risks. Behind fellow lefty ace Madison Bumgarner, the Giants have much of the same. Hence why both clubs have been routinely connected to the market’s biggest names, including Price and Zimmermann.
All along, it’s been apparent Greinke is at the top of both clubs’ respective wish lists. And with Price and Zimmermann off the market, Greinke has graduated from being a preferred target to the target for the Dodgers and Giants. It’s time for them to see how deep their pockets go.
The Dodgers, of course, are as rich as rich gets. They’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars in recent years, going so far as to spend over $300 million on players in 2015. As of now, Cot’s Baseball Contracts says they only have about $170 million committed to 2016, with another $30 million or so due in arbitration costs, per MLB Trade Rumors. That’s “only” $200 million.
The Giants have plenty of spending power of their own. The upward trajectory of their recent payrolls suggests they could top last year’s roughly $170 million Opening Day payroll. Right now, they only have about $137 million on the books for 2016. There’s plenty of room for Greinke.
To be sure, Nightengale‘s note about the Dodgers still being the favorites for Greinke does ring true. If they decide money isn’t an object, they can outbid any team for any player. And according to the latest from head honcho Magic Johnson, money may indeed be no object.
“We want him back,” said Johnson of Greinke, via Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. “He’s our priority, our No. 1 priority, of the offseason.”
The only question may be whether Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, will change Johnson’s mind.
In speaking with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Friedman expressed discomfort at making big splashes in free agency, noting it doesn’t always correlate with the kind of October success that the franchise so badly craves.
So, Giants, that’s your window. Friedman’s stance on big free-agent splashes means there’s a possibility the Dodgers will blink in a bidding war over Greinke. And given where the Giants stand with Greinke, it’s very possible they won’t blink before the Dodgers do.
Though the Dodgers have all of the spending power a team could ask for, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports warned a couple weeks ago the Giants are a real threat to sign Greinke away from them. It’s a chance to provide for themselves while also denying the enemy, a strategy that fits with general manager Bobby Evans’ goal for his starting rotation.
“We don’t want to keep up with them,” said Evans of the Dodgers and their typically awesome starting pitching at his year-end press conference in October, via Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. “We want to pass them.”
Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Giants haven’t had much luck with nine-figure contracts for pitchers. The $126 million they spent on Barry Zito in 2006 is the greatest trick agent Scott Boras ever pulled. The $112.5 million extension the Giants gave Matt Cain seemed like a better idea in theory, but reality had other plans.
But the idea that Greinke can age well does hold water, and Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle says it’s one the Giants believe in. Some in their front office think he can be the next Greg Maddux.
In all, the stage is set for a heck of a bidding war. In the middle is Greinke, a truly fantastic pitcher. Looming over him is one team that definitely needs him and can definitely afford him, and another that needs him just as bad and may simply want him.
One way or another, Greinke is going to get what he wants from an NL West power. All he needs to know now is which one it’s going to be, and his answer should come very soon.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com