I usually build my DraftKings lineups by selecting my two pitchers first, then filling in the eight position players with the remaining salary. However, I feel like going a different route Wednesday. 

When I looked over Wednesday’s slate, one team jumped out at me: Toronto. The Blue Jays are the highest-scoring team in baseball—they’ve tallied 63 more runs than any other team—and they are playing in Citizens Bank Park in South Philly—the third-smallest ballpark in the bigs, according to a 2014 study done by BusinessInsider.com‘s Cork Gaines.

The opposing starter? Adam Morgan, a 6’1″, 195-pound lefty making his 10th career start.

Morgan has been serviceable nine games into his career, as he currently sports a 4.11 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Unfortunately for Morgan, the Blue Jays tee off against lefties; they currently rank first in the majors in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+, an advanced metric that measures the runs created by a player (or team) against the league average. 

Every day, numberFire.com uses its advanced algorithm to project every player’s statistics. Games are simulated thousands of times, and eventually each player’s true projections become apparent. For Wednesday’s slate, numberFire projects each of these Blue Jays to lead their respective position in fantasy points:

All four are right-handed batters, and three of the four are hitting over .310 against lefties this season. (Joey Bats is hitting just .244, but he has traditionally hit .269 against southpaws with a slugging percentage over .500.)

But the best part about starting these four is their hit clustering. To date, there is little empirical data that proves whether or not it is easier to hit with runners on base. However, for daily fantasy purposes, it is much easier to score fantasy points when surrounded with talented offensive players.

Think about it, if Tulo gets on via the walk, he has sluggers like Donaldson, Bautista, Martin and Edwin Encarnacion to knock him in. Not too shabby. 

 

Cheap Pitchers to Target

The Blue Jays are the most expensive team to stack at DraftKings for Wednesday’s games, so you’ll have to throw out one or two bargain-bin pitchers to fit their bats into your roster. Here are a couple of suggestions.

 

Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels ($6,100) vs. Chicago White Sox

The 6’7″ right-hander is (probably not) enjoying the worst season of his career—he is currently 4-9 with a 4.60 ERA, the worst ERA of his 10-year career. Jered Weaver is dirt cheap because of his poor season, and he gets to throw against the White Sox. Chicago ranks last in the AL in on-base plus slugging (OPS) and is last in the entire league in runs produced. If there was ever a time for Weaver to right the ship, it’s Wednesday night in Anaheim.

 

Jeremy Guthrie, Kansas City Royals ($4,000) at Cincinnati Reds

Jeremy Guthrie is having a worse season than Weaver! His WHIP is nearly 1.6, he doesn’t strike people out, his ERA is crap and his 8-7 record is extremely misleading. But he only costs $4,000 and will be throwing against a Reds team that ranks 26th in wRC+ against righties.

Guthrie won’t have to face a designated hitter since the Royals are in Cincinnati. He also benefits from pitching in front of the best defensive team in the league by far, as KC is nearly doubling up the second-place Tampa Bay Rays.

 

All prices come from DraftKings.com. All statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted. 

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