Daily fantasy baseball can sometimes feel like a crapshoot. But there are always spots where dedicated fantasy players find advantages. Here are five pitchers I feel will more than likely outscore their projection.
1. Dallas Keuchel ($9,900) at Mariners
According to DraftKings, Dallas Keuchel enters Saturday’s ballgame in Seattle with eight wins, two losses and an ERA just north of two. His WHIP checks in at 0.95.
Though he hasn’t lit the league on fire since his complete-game, 11-strikeout, 48.9-fantasy point shutout on May 30, he’s pitched well enough to be trusted. Keuchel also provides his owners a high floor—totaling at least 14 fantasy points in each of his last six starts.
Seattle has been bad offensively. Early-season MVP front-runner Nelson Cruz has come back down to earth, and Robinson Cano is having a tough year. Per FanGraphs, the Mariners have scored only 81 runs over the past 30 days, the second-lowest mark in the league.
2. John Lackey ($7,900) at Phillies
John Lackey hasn’t been a sexy pitching name since he left Anaheim in 2010.
But despite the moans of millions of Red Sox fans, he’s been pretty good over the last couple of seasons. The weighty righty is in the middle of his third straight year with an ERA under 4.00. This season’s 3.59 ERA is the result of some stellar outings—and some poor starts.
Lackey should pitch well on June 20. He’ll take the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies, who’ve crossed the plate a meager 210 times this season. The Phillies are more than 16 runs back of the 29th-best offensive team, and they also take walks at the second-worst rate in the league and hit the fewest homers.
3. Nick Martinez ($5,900) at White Sox
Nick Martinez is the fourth-least expensive pitcher going in the early slate on June 20, even though he’s sporting a minuscule 2.76 ERA on the season.
Aside from his last start against the (gulp) Chicago White Sox, Martinez has provided a nice foundation for a cheap spot starter. According to Rotogrinders, he’s scored at least 11 fantasy points in six of his past seven starts.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, Martinez is walking two batters per start, but he’s also pegged nine guys this season—tops in the bigs. If he can control his pitches and not start any riots, he should bounce back from his last outing against these White Sox, who currently rank last in the league in slugging percentage.
4. Jesse Hahn ($6,200) vs. Angels
Starting any A’s pitcher comes with a serious risk. The bullpen in Oakland is terrible. Relievers gave up seven runs on June 19, and they’re knocking on the door of an ERA over five, according to FanGraphs. ESPN’s Baseball Tonight noted the poor June 19 showing, and a Royals fan added to the misery:
Because of this issue, many A’s starting pitchers have been cheated out of potential wins. Hopefully the bullpen can keep the Angels offense to a dull roar on Saturday.
Hahn, who prices in at just $6,200, provides his owners a ton of upside. He’s cracked 20 fantasy points in three of his past six outings and dropped 36.3 in a complete-game shutout over the Tigers earlier this season. He also gets to throw in a pitcher’s park with acres of foul territory against an Angels roster that has largely underachieved offensively this season.
5. Carlos Rodon ($5,500) vs. Rangers
Carlos Rodon will take on Joey Gallo and the Rangers at home on Saturday. Rodon is coming off his worst outing of the year. He allowed nine hits and seven runs in 3.2 innings in Pittsburgh on Monday. That’ll probably scare off most daily fantasy players.
But one major advantage of that poor outing is his immense drop in price. Rodon is $1,000 cheaper than he was a week ago. And before that outing in Western Pennsylvania, Rodon had posted back-to-back sound starts. If you’re looking to save on a pitcher, Rodon‘s value might never be higher.
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