The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Chicago Cubs in the one-and-done NL Wild Card Game on Wednesday night. Pittsburgh is the underdog in the eyes of a plethora of observers, many of whom are expecting to see a low-scoring affair at PNC Park.
No team in baseball, either in the National League or American League, was hotter at the end of the season than the Cubs. The club from the North Side closed the campaign out with eight consecutive victories.
According to the New York Times, Chicago manager Joe Maddon will be sending maybe the best starting pitcher in the game today to the hill for his team’s first playoff appearance in seven seasons.
Cy Young candidate Jake Arrieta has proven himself to be downright untouchable when at his best. He went 22-6 over 33 regular-season starts. The Cubs’ ace has a 1.77 ERA and a WHIP of 0.86. Arrieta‘s 0.75 ERA after the All-Star break reads like a stat from a video game that is played on “easy” mode.
The Pirates were reminded of Arrieta‘s greatness when the Cubs hosted Pittsburgh back on September 27. Arrieta retired 18 straight Pittsburgh batters, and he surrendered a single hit in seven innings of work.
If that wasn’t enough, Arrieta also hit a solo home run in the 4-0 win over the Pirates.
Pittsburgh will be up against it at home. No question about it. Do not, however, count the Pirates out before the first pitch is thrown on Wednesday.
Having their playoff lives extended or extinguished on a single night is nothing new for the Pirates. This is the third year in a row that Pittsburgh will be the home of the NL Wild Card Game. The great sports city partied after a win in 2013, but Pirates fans had their hearts broken by the San Francisco Giants in 2014.
Pittsburgh starting pitcher Gerrit Cole will not be intimidated when he faces the Cubs. Cole finished the season at 19-8 and with an ERA of 2.60. His 1.09 WHIP and 202 strikeouts are both impressive, even if they don’t match the marks set by Arrieta.
Jacob Nitzberg of ESPN Stats & Information wrote about why Cole could pitch the Pirates past the Cubs:
In nine career starts against the Cubs, Cole is 7-1 with a 2.88 ERA. He is undefeated in three starts against them at PNC Park.
In 2015, Cole was 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA in four starts against the Cubs, striking out 32 and walking four. He allowed 20 hits in 25 1/3 innings, with a Tommy La Stella double as the only extra-base hit he allowed.
Jonah Keri of Grantland provided another reason you may want to pick the Pirates over the Cubs. Pittsburgh’s bullpen is one of the best in the National League. Closer Mark Melancon recorded 51 saves. Southpaw reliever Tony Watson gave up 17 runs, 16 earned, in 75.1 innings of work.
Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune agrees that the Pirates have the advantage over the Cubs in this aspect:
Mark Melancon earned five of his 51 saves against the Cubs, but he allowed five runs on 12 hits in 10 innings against them. Nevertheless, the Pirates’ bullpen finished with an NL-low 2.57 ERA. Left-handed batters hit .163 against left-handers Antonio Bastardo and Tony Watson. Arquimedes Caminero has been effective against left-handers as well as right-handers. Joakim Soria is a fallback to Melancon.
In the end, the Cubs are the hot pick heading into the evening hours of October 7. Keri touched on that as well:
Arrieta has not only dominated these past few months like few pitchers ever have, he’s also gone deep into games and run up big pitch counts when needed — all without ever showing a hint of slowing down. Backed by the Cubs’ boom-or-bust offense, which figures to catch at least one boom, another dominant Arrieta performance would set up a tantalizing, never-before-seen playoff match-up in the next round: Cubs vs. Cardinals.
Keri is not alone among NL Wild Card predictions. Four of the five CBSSports.com experts asked picked the Cubs to beat the Pirates. Each of them, for what it’s worth, accurately predicted that the Houston Astros would down the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game.
Tim Brown, Chris Cwik, Jeff Passan and Mark Townsend of Yahoo Sports all picked the Cubs to emerge victorious. Israel Fehr and Mike Oz went with the Pirates.
Aaron Goldstein of the American Spectator believes the Cubs will make a run to the World Series.
Those of you who like big bats and lots of scoring may be reaching for your remote by the fourth inning. Baseball diehards who enjoy watching two aces go pitch for pitch could see an NL Wild Card Game to remember.
Viewers on the East Coast may be able to call it a night before the local news begins if both Arrieta and Cole are on.
Baseball history suggests that the Cubs make for a better NLDS opponent for the division rival St. Louis Cardinals. Do not necessarily buy into that. The Pirates and Cardinals have built a nice rivalry of their own during Pittsburgh’s climb to relevancy.
It should also be noted that any playoff game that occurs in Pittsburgh, regardless of the sport, has a special atmosphere that even viewers at home feel.
Whatever happens when the Cubs and Pirates meet, casual baseball fans should feel like the big winners. As for a final prediction, it is difficult to believe that Arrieta will slow down anytime soon. He could carry the Cubs on a historic run this October.
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