Casey McGehee isn’t Pablo Sandoval. He doesn’t have a cute animal nickname, and he’s never inspired anyone to wear a panda mask (that we know of).
Replacing Sandoval in the hearts and minds of San Francisco Giants fans is an impossible task. He was simply too big and beloved a figure in the Bay Area.
Yes, the comments he made recently to Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller may have tarnished his reputation, but they can’t erase his indelible postseason performances or reverse the Kung Fu Panda mystique.
So the question isn’t if McGehee can be Sandoval; it’s whether he can approximate Sandoval’s production at third base for the defending champs.
At first blush, the answer looks like an unequivocal “no.” Sandoval is a 28-year-old two-time All-Star who just inked a five-year, $95 million deal with the Boston Red Sox.
McGehee is a 32-year-old journeyman who wound up playing in Japan in 2013.
Then again, McGehee signed a one-year deal in 2014 with the Miami Marlins, smacked 177 hits, second in the National League, and won the National League Comeback Player of the Year Award.
Let’s just go ahead and compare McGehee and Sandoval’s 2014 lines:
McGehee: .287/.355/.357, 4 HR, 76 RBI
Sandoval: .279/.324/.415, 16 HR, 73 RBI
The power disparity jumps out, and that’s significant on a Giants team that may not hit many balls out of the park. Other than that, though, there’s remarkable symmetry.
McGehee’s past isn’t punchless. In 2010, he hit 23 home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he clubbed 28 for the Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2013.
In fact, 2014 was just the second time in his MLB career that McGehee failed to post a double-digit home run total.
What happened? Here’s how McGehee sums it up, per Sports Illustrated‘s Ben Reiter:
I didn’t go into the season saying I’m going to hit four homers or anything. [Marlins Park is] a big field. It’s a fast field. You get rewarded for hitting the ball down on a line. Part of it was by design. Looking back, there were times I should have been a bit more selective, drive the ball. I think four will probably be the outlier, I would hope.
AT&T Park, McGehee’s new home, is also a big yard and among the league’s most pitcher-friendly, according to ESPN’s Park Factors statistic.
So his power could go missing again. At the same time, McGehee has used the spring to showcase why he can be valuable without the long ball. He hasn’t launched one in the Cactus League, but he was hitting .382 with four doubles entering play Monday.
OK, that’s the offensive side. What about the leather?
The newfangled defensive metrics give a clear edge to Sandoval, who posted a 3.5 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) last season, per FanGraphs, next to McGehee’s -1.6.
On the other hand, McGehee’s .979 fielding percentage paced NL third basemen, meaning he makes the plays he gets to. He’s steady, not flashy.
Really, that sums him up as a player—and highlights the biggest difference between McGehee and his gregarious predecessor.
“I’ve got a job to do, and these guys in the clubhouse expect me to do my job,” McGehee said, per Carl Steward of the San Jose Mercury News. “It’s not going to be the same way Panda did it, but I think I bring a lot to the table and I hold myself to a high standard.”
The projection systems aren’t so high. ZiPS foresees a .258/.322/.357 line, and Steamer is slightly more pessimistic, per FanGraphs.
Squint at that spring line, though, swill a little exhibition-season Kool Aid, and imagine McGehee repeating last year’s stats with an uptick in power.
Considering he’ll make just $4.8 million in 2015 and the fact that he cost the Giants a pair of Single-A arms, he could end up being one of the offseason’s biggest bargains.
Just don’t ask him to sell any panda masks.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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