I was thinking World Series this year, but the dysfunction of last September was too much. The owners decided to blow everything up and start over.
This piece isn’t going to be about who’s gone. This is going to be about who stays behind and what kind of team the Red Sox will have when 2013 rolls around.
Now they can throw a lot of money at Jacoby Ellsbury to stay and not test the free-agent market in 2014. The complication here is that his agent, Scott Boras, will go for max money for his client. If there is no extension for Ellsbury by spring, Sox management could walk away from this player as well.
Dustin Pedroia will be back in his usual spot in the two-hole now that Carl Crawford is gone. This pretty much guarantees a return of David Ortiz in the three-hole, and there is an outside chance he finally gets that two-year deal he is craving so he can retire a Red Sox. The wise money is on a one-year deal with maybe an option for the second one.
Cleanup should go to Will Middlebrooks, who basically showed he could rake and make the adjustments to hit big league pitching. I think the Sox would prefer a more established hitter to protect Ortiz, a right-handed bat that would reprise the role of a Manny Ramirez in 2004 and 2007 when the club swept to the World title.
That would allow them to push Middlebrooks down to the five-hole, and he could switch positions in the order with Jarrod Saltalamacchia. You could also throw Cody Ross in the mix here.
That’s one through six. As is always the case, seven through nine is often a headache in the hitter-happy AL.
Mike Aviles and Pedro Ciriaco—a combination of occasional pop and speed—should bring up the No. 7 and No. 8 holes. Ryan Kalish should be in the running here. Next year could also be the start of the Jose Iglesias era at shortstop, and he would be the ninth hitter for the team. The only problem here is that Aviles, Ciriaco and Iglesias play similar positions in the infield.
Ryan Lavarnway is the backup catcher, but if he hits his way into the lineup, he could provide relief to Salty and spell Ortiz as the DH.
For the starting rotation, 2013 is the drop-dead year for Jon Lester. With the other guy gone, he badly needs to step up and show that all the talk of him being an ace is for real. He can easily rebound in 2013, and you just do not give up on a power lefty who won the clinching game of the World Series in 2007 and should be coming into his prime.
Clay Buchholz is a wonderful pitcher who could be an ace, but he is really a No. 2 at this point in his career.
Felix Doubront is a No. 4 pitcher at this time, but he could easily make the jump to No. 3. Lefties are like that. Chances are, they look at the free-agent market for another hurler who is a legit No. 3 pitcher.
Which brings us to John Lackey. The debate is whether or not you throw him out as well. The answer will have to be wait and see. If he does a decent job, then he would not be a bad No. 3 or No. 4 pitcher. Franklin Morales and Aaron Cook can duke it out for the last spot in the rotation.
It is a lineup that has holes from four through nine and a rotation full of question marks. Many of the top prospects in the minors are a few years away.
The big mistakes of the Theo Epstein regime have been cast aside by the Red Sox. The team is going back to an approach that netted grinding gamers like Ross and developing players through astute scouting—see Pedroia and Middlebrooks.
The reset button has been pushed. Now we see if getting payroll flexibility of over $200 million is worth it.
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