Before the regular season began, I wrote an article examining the AL East contenders’ April schedules and argued that, because the Blue Jays played a relatively weak schedule to open the season, they would have a strong first month.
They’ve done well, but May will not be nearly as kind to them.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox and Yankees should breeze through a relatively weak May schedule, while the Orioles will run into some of the league’s best teams over the next 31 days.
Here are analyses of each team’s May schedules, and arguments for why the Orioles probably won’t be within a game of first place in the division when the calendar turns to June.
Baltimore Orioles
Opponents: at NYY (2), at BOS (3), vs TEX (4), vs TB (3), vs NYY (2), at KC (2), at WAS (3), vs BOS (3), vs KC (3) at TOR (3)
Opponents’ combined record (entering April 28): .565 (78-60)
Analysis: In May, the O’s will play 11 of their 28 games against 2011’s playoff teams, plus six games against Boston, three in Toronto, and three in Washington against one of the hottest teams in baseball. They open the month with 14 straight games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, Rays and Yankees again—that’s an extremely difficult stretch. It will be almost impossible for the Orioles to stay in the hunt for the division lead.
Boston Red Sox
Opponents: vs OAK (2), vs BAL (3), at KC (3), vs CLE (4), vs SEA (2), at TB (2), at PHI (3), at BAL (3), vs TB (3), vs DET (4)
Opponents’ combined record (entering April 28): .513 (82-78)
Analysis: After slumping for most of April, the Sox have started to turn things around with a series in Minnesota and will continue to play the American League’s weakest teams in May. Their first 14 games will be against Oakland, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland and Seattle. Those are arguably the AL’s worst five teams!
They’ll play another series against the O’s before the month is through, as well as three games against Philadelphia, whose pitching is still solid but whose offense is so weak that it should make the Sox’s bullpen look respectable. Five games against Tampa and four against Detroit should be tough, but overall, Boston’s May schedule provides the Sox a great opportunity to turn things around. Is a 19-10 May record really that much of a stretch?
New York Yankees
Opponents: vs BAL (2), at KC (4), vs TB (3), vs SEA (3), at BAL (2), at TOR (2), vs CIN (3), vs KC (3), at OAK (3), at LAA (3)
Opponents’ combined record (entering April 28): .479 (78-85)
Analysis: The Yankees will play 17 of their 28 May games against the Athletics, Mariners, Orioles and Royals—need I say more? Even if their starting pitching continues to struggle, they should score more than enough runs to win at least 13 or 14 out of 17 against those teams.
The rest of the month, they’ll play one series each against Tampa Bay, Toronto, Cincinnati and Los Angeles (the Angels, not the Dodgers). Those should each be interesting series (especially the Rays series, after the Yankees were swept in the first three games of the season), but the Yankees are more than capable of winning at least two out of three from each team. The Yankees should go at least 18-8 in May.
Tampa Bay Rays
Opponents: vs SEA (3), vs OAK (3), at NYY (3), at BAL (3), at TOR (2), vs BOS (2), vs ATL (3), vs TOR (3), at BOS (3), vs CHW (3)
Opponents’ combined record (entering April 28): .544 (87-73)
Analysis: The Rays will play the AL East’s best teams a lot this month, featuring three games in the Bronx against the Yankees and two series apiece against the Blue Jays and Red Sox. Those games will be tough for Tampa Bay, but otherwise the schedule does not look too difficult.
They should be able to handle the Mariners and Athletics to open the month, they play Baltimore and Atlanta three times each, and a White Sox team that is very average. If the Rays can navigate their division games well, they should consider the month a success.
Toronto Blue Jays
Opponents: vs TEX (2), at LAA (4), at OAK (2), at MIN (4), vs TB (2), vs NYY (2), vs NYM (3), at TB (3), at TEX (3), vs BAL (3)
Opponents’ combined record (entering April 28): .539 (97-83)
Analysis: The Blue Jays will face the Rangers five times in May, in addition to the Angels, Yankees and Rays. Those will all be tough games, and even though they play Oakland and Minnesota, those games are on the road and are part of a tough 10-game roadtrip. The Jays will also play the Mets, who have opened 2012 with a surprisingly fast start, in Interleague play. We’ll learn much more about the Jays in May than we did in April.
I don’t look at the standings until June at the earliest, and when I do this year, I expect the Yankees and Rays to remain at or near the top of the division along with the Red Sox, with the Blue Jays and Orioles falling behind.
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