Spring is approaching, people. We know this because with pitchers and catchers due to start reporting on February 18, spring training is now just a couple weeks away.
That means there’s precious little time for teams to do any last-minute shopping before spring training begins. So, we’re here to help out with a few suggestions.
Five suggestions, to be exact. There are four big-name free agents who are still looking for work. We’re going to find homes for them, as well as one big-name trade candidate.
We’ll hit the free agents first, starting with…
Arizona Diamondbacks Sign Howie Kendrick
The Diamondbacks have made two of the biggest splashes of the offseason, signing Zack Greinke to a $200-plus million contract and sending almost their entire farm to the Atlanta Braves for Shelby Miller. And now, they look like a team that might do some damage.
However, “might” isn’t the same as “will.”
The 2016 D-Backs do figure to be more well-rounded than the 2015 club that won 79 games, but the projections at FanGraphs are pretty much reflective of the popular opinion of the NL West: that Arizona isn’t quite up to par with the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Francisco Giants.
If the D-Backs are going to compete in 2016, they need more. Which brings us to Howie Kendrick.
The 32-year-old second baseman is still looking for work despite the fact that he’s as consistent as they come at the dish, hitting between .285 and .297 each year between 2011 and 2015. As Buster Olney of ESPN.com noted, Kendrick’s ties to draft-pick compensation aren’t helping.
Likewise, that seems to be a deal-breaker for the Diamondbacks.
“I just don’t know how far we’re going to get down the road with that,” Arizona general manager Dave Stewart recently told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, who noted that Stewart seems especially hesitant to give up a second draft pick after already losing one to sign Greinke.
This is understandable, but here’s a counterpoint: Kendrick could really help the Diamondbacks.
According to FanGraphs, Arizona second basemen finished dead last in the National League in WAR in 2015. And as the projections see it, improvement isn’t in the cards in 2016. Hence, this observation from MLB Stat of the Day:
Mind you, even an upgrade like that wouldn’t make the D-Backs better on paper than the Dodgers or Giants. But it would definitely help close the gap, which is the best Arizona can hope for at this point.
It’s also hard to believe the D-Backs can’t afford it. Greinke’s signing means there’s no first-round draft pick at stake here, and the team should have enough money. Their projected payroll comes in a shade under $100 million, which sounds low for a team with a newly signed $1.5 billion TV deal.
Baltimore Orioles Sign Yovani Gallardo
Relative to how things could have gone, the Orioles have had a pretty good offseason. They could have lost Matt Wieters, Darren O’Day, Wei-Yin Chen and Chris Davis, but instead have only lost Chen.
In so doing, they’ve handed out over $200 million in guaranteed dollars. If a team is going to do that, it’s obviously committed to winning.
But like with the Diamondbacks in the NL West, the Orioles still look out of their depth in the AL East. As of now, they’re projected as the worst team in the division.
The big problem? Starting pitching. The solution? Yovani Gallardo.
The Orioles are projected to have the worst starting pitching in the American League in 2016. Which is believable. Staff ace Chris Tillman is coming off a rough 2015 season, and he’s backed by a motley crew of Miguel Gonzalez, Ubaldo Jimenez, Kevin Gausman and Mike Wright. That’s a rotation that needs at least one more solid arm.
“Solid” is as good a word as any to describe Gallardo. He owns a 3.66 ERA for his career and a 3.46 ERA over the last two seasons, and he has made a habit of flirting with the 200-inning plateau.
What might scare other suitors off is the fact that Gallardo is not the strikeout pitcher he once was, as he now operates by mixing his pitches and only toying with the strike zone. But this makes him a good fit for the Orioles rotation, which has generally preferred to get by on craftiness rather than power.
According to a report from Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun, the Orioles did have interest in Gallardo earlier in the offseason. That was obviously when they had more financial flexibility, and they also have to worry about losing the No. 14 pick in next year’s draft.
However, the Orioles also need to worry about competing. Gallardo can put them in a much better position to do that, and the likely reality is that he at least wouldn’t cost them too much money at this point. Gallardo is looking like a good candidate for a Scott Kazmir-like contract involving a short commitment, modest dollars and perhaps an early opt-out.
Los Angeles Angels Sign Dexter Fowler
The Angels made a splash when they traded for Andrelton Simmons earlier in the winter, but have been pretty quiet since then. That may mean they’re happy with their team heading into 2016.
Well, it’s not a bad team. It still has Mike Trout on it, after all, which is always a good thing.
But the Angels’ problem is that they don’t stand out in what’s shaping up to be a deep AL West. The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers look like the two best teams in the division, and the Angels may not be better than the Seattle Mariners.
One thing that could help change that is a new leadoff hitter. You know, like Dexter Fowler.
Fowler owns a .363 career OBP and is typically good for double-digit homers and steals. And if he moves to left field, his defense probably wouldn’t be the problem that it’s been in center field.
All of this should appeal to the Angels. They not only need to upgrade a leadoff spot that produced just a .280 OBP and a .630 OPS in 2015, but also a left field situation that they’re currently trusting to spare parts like Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry.
Of course, Fowler won’t come cheap. Beyond costing the Angels a draft pick, it would also cost them a good chunk of change. With the club’s farm system in shambles and its payroll already set to brush up against the luxury tax threshold in 2016, these are legit concerns.
The Angels’ farm system is in so many shambles, however, that they’re unlikely to solve anything with the No. 17 pick in the draft anyway. As for the club’s luxury tax situation, Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com offered some solid reasoning here:
What the Angels don’t need — or, rather, don’t want — is to go beyond the $189 million luxury tax threshold. They’re already pushing right up against it. But at least Fowler’s projected contract at this point wouldn’t make for a major penalty — especially not for a first-time offender getting a 17.5-percent tax. And there’s a possibility the threshold will rise with the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.
This is basically Dennis Nedry saying, “Don’t get cheap on me, Dodgson.” Angels owner Arte Moreno would be wise to listen.
Chicago White Sox Sign Ian Desmond
The White Sox haven’t gone all-out bonkers like they did last winter, but their trade for Todd Frazier was a pretty clear signal that they’re still very much interested in competing.
In keeping with our theme, though, the South Siders just don’t seem to quite have enough for the task. They’re projected to be right around .500 in 2016, which may not be enough to cut it in a deep AL Central or in what’s likely to be a crowded American League Wild Card race.
One thing that could help the White Sox improve their fortunes is adding some offense at shortstop, which is where Ian Desmond comes in.
Last year, White Sox shortstops produced just a .631 OPS and 10 home runs. Even by the position’s relatively low standards, their shortstop offense was pretty terrible.
Desmond, meanwhile, can still hit. It didn’t look like it in the first half of 2015, but he rebounded to post a .777 OPS and hit 12 dingers in the second half. That was much more in line with his usual performance, which included a .788 OPS and an average of 23 dingers a year between 2012 and 2014.
Because Desmond is tied to draft-pick compensation, signing him is a costly maneuver for many of his suitors. But not for the White Sox. They have the No. 10 pick in the 2016 draft, which is a protected pick.
As such, it’s only going to cost them money to sign Desmond. And with John Danks and Adam LaRoche set to come off the books after 2016, now isn’t such a bad time for them to stretch their payroll a bit.
Texas Rangers Trade for Jonathan Lucroy
Unlike the other teams on this list, the Rangers seemingly have enough to make a serious run at contending in 2016. They’re the reigning AL West champs, and they’ll be getting Yu Darvish back this season.
If we’re going to nitpick, though, we can say that the Rangers haven’t done much to fortify their chances of defending their division title. And of all the areas they could make upgrades, perhaps the one most in need of an upgrade is catcher. It only projects to be a serviceable position in 2016.
Hence, Jonathan Lucroy.
Lucroy is coming off a rough 2015 season, as he was limited by injuries to only 103 games and watched his OPS fall 120 points from where it was in an MVP-caliber 2014 season. Factor in his apparent strike-framing decline, and he may already be past his prime.
Or, maybe it was just one bad year. As we discussed earlier this week, there’s a good chance of that.
Regardless of Lucroy’s future outlook, however, the big complication in trading for him is his price tag. The Milwaukee Brewers are clearly open to moving the veteran catcher, but Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports has reported that the Rangers are one of several teams that think they’re asking for too much in a trade.
There is a trade to be made between these two clubs, however. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs broke down several possibilities, ranging from a deal centered around Jurickson Profar to one centered around top prospects Dillon Tate or Lewis Brinson.
Getting a deal done may be as simple as the Rangers buying into the notion that Lucroy can be a star-caliber catcher again. If they do, the missing link in their 2016 plans is within their grasp.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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