Last year’s leaders in overall WAR (wins above replacement) for pitchers and hitters were Detroit right-hander Justin Verlander and Los Angeles outfielder Mike Trout, respectively.
Both were first-rounders.
Last year’s batting champion was San Francisco’s Buster Posey. His division rival, Clayton Kershaw, led all of baseball with a 2.53 ERA.
Both were first-rounders.
In fact, the major league league leaders in hits (Derek Jeter), doubles (Alex Gordon), runs (Trout), stolen bases (Trout…again), wins (Gio Gonzalez), strikeouts per nine innings (Max Scherzer), innings (Verlander), strikeouts (Verlander…again) and games started (Zack Greinke) were all former first-round selections.
The point?
These days, projecting success for a first-round selection is easier than ever.
Rare are the Kyle Lohses (29th round, led MLB in win-loss percentage) of the world. So rare, in fact, that it’s hard to find another pitcher or hitter who led the league in any statistical category that wasn’t picked in either the first or second round.
As such, when projecting future stars of the 2013 class, it really only makes sense to stick to the prospects we know—the Mark Appels and Clint Fraziers of the world. These are the guys who will develop into the strikeout champions, the home run king and the Gold Glovers.
So, without further ado, let’s see if we can project which players have those kinds of superlatives in their future.