We are T-minus six days from Opening Day of the 2011 MLB season. The first official pitch will be thrown by Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers in Yankee Stadium.
It’s a great time of the year.
I used to have to sleep with a baseball in my hand around this time of year when I played coach-pitch ball. Now, I just get the itch to scour online ticket vendors for cheap seats to great games.
I’m sure you have your own annual idiosyncrasies too, but one ritual that all red-blooded baseball fans have is The Prediction.
The Prediction is an immortal, intangible milestone in a sports fan’s life. Oftentimes, it’s passed down from generation to generation.
The ability to blow hot air about how great (awful) your team (the other team) will do is easy to acquire.
But predicting year after year that the Cubs will win it all or the Pirates will win at all takes more ardent determination. Indeed, only the truest of fans can routinely be wrong and come back again next year full of even more far-fetched prognostications.
My turn!
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the 2011 Tampa Bay Rays, 3rd place in the AL East.
Overview
Tampa will not be able to repeat as AL East Champions, which should come as no surprise to anyone who watched the Rays at all last year.
They knew that 2010 would be their last year to try to get back to the World Series with that group of players, but they ran into a hot Texas Rangers team with one of baseball’s finest playoff pitchers, Cliff Lee.
I have already pronounced James Shields the X-factor for the Rays in 2011. A strong year from him could very well lead to a strong regular season for Tampa Bay.
Where I’m Right
The Rays are an interesting blend of very, very young and very, very old.
On one hand, depending on Sean Rodriguez to take a big step forward so soon is difficult for me. On the other, Manny Ramirez is eventually going to see a batting average decline, and this year could be it.
Kyle Farnsworth is the most battle-tested arm in Tampa Bay’s bullpen, which is startling. Relying on the quick-tempered fireballer to set the tone in the 6th, 7th and 8th innings is a gamble.
The dice roll is magnified when you consider that his counterparts in New York and Boston, Rafael Soriano and Hideki Okajima, respectively, have excellent track records of strong relief performance.
How I Could Be Wrong
If James Shields is the X-factor of the team, BJ Upton is the W-factor.
…Now that you’ve had a second to roll your eyes a couple times at that weak attempt at humor, hear me out.
BJ Upton, like his younger brother, has all the talent in the world. He proved in 2007 that he’s capable of hitting for power and average, while in each of the three seasons since he’s stolen at least 40 bases.
The challenge for Upton will be to combine some of that power and average with his remarkable speed. A stat line of .270, 20 HRs and 30 SBs is completely within the realm of possibility.
Another way the Rays could prove me wrong is by catching fire with talented, enthusiastic youth the same way they did in 2008.
If Joe Maddon‘s club is in contention at the All-Star break, anything can happen.
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