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MLB Power Rankings: Empire Strikes Back in NYC

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its award-winning baseball simulation engine to present the most comprehensive and unbiased ranking possible of all 30 teams in baseball each Monday during the regular season. To come up with the rankings, using only their statistical performance to date this season, each team is simulated against every other team 100 times (50 at home and 50 away) so that all five pitchers in the current rotation start ten times at each location.

(Note: If a pitcher who was in the rotation was recently put on the DL, he will not be included in the simulations.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
1. New York Yankees +1 71.1 6.1 3.7
2. San Francisco Giants +1 66.0 5.1 3.4
3. Tampa Bay Rays -2 64.9 5.0 3.4
4. St. Louis Cardinals 62.8 4.8 3.5
5. Minnesota Twins 59.6 5.3 4.1
6. San Diego Padres +12 56.7 4.4 3.8
7. Toronto Blue Jays +3 56.1 4.7 4.1
8. Detroit Tigers +1 54.9 5.3 4.7
9. Philadelphia Phillies +7 54.7 5.2 4.8
10. Chicago Cubs -3 54.3 5.3 4.8
  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
11. Washington Nationals -5 54.0 4.6 4.2
12. Colorado Rockies -1 53.4 4.7 4.4
13. Milwaukee Brewers 52.4 5.7 5.5
14. New York Mets -6 52.2 4.6 4.5
15. Los Angeles Dodgers -1 51.4 5.3 5.2
16. Boston Red Sox +8 50.6 5.2 5.2
17. Chicago White Sox 49.2 4.2 4.3
18. Texas Rangers -3 48.8 4.2 4.3
19. Kansas City Royals -7 47.6 4.6 5.0
20. Florida Marlins +2 47.1 4.5 4.9
  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
21. Arizona Diamondbacks -2 46.6 5.4 6.0
22. Cincinnati Reds +1 44.0 4.7 5.3
23. Los Angeles Angels -3 43.2 4.5 5.4
24. Oakland Athletics +1 42.6 3.9 4.5
25. Baltimore Orioles +3 40.0 4.0 5.1
26. Seattle Mariners +1 38.5 3.3 4.4
27. Pittsburgh Pirates +3 37.8 4.2 5.3
28. Atlanta Braves -7 36.8 3.9 5.2
29. Cleveland Indians -3 34.5 3.8 5.5
30. Houston Astros -1 28.3 2.8 4.9

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Former MLB GM Jim Bowden Talks to WhatIfSports

A fresh faced Jim Bowden bellied up to the bar once more.

The recent college grad of Rollins College (Florida) found himself in sports bars on a regular basis come the mid-80s. He wasn’t so much interested in a cold tall one, but more the free happy hour grub.

“My second year with the Pirates I was making $12,500 a year,” Bowden said. “I was having trouble getting food on the table.”

The former general manager relied “on the house” to provide him complimentary buffalo wings and potato skins as sustenance in 1986. Then before he knew it, he was on baseball’s front office fast track.

“I was blessed because I learned how to replace my mouth with an ear,” Bowden said. “For three years I learned from the best in the game.”

Syd Thrift

He followed Syd Thrift (right) from Pittsburgh, to New York and then to Cincinnati. In 1992, the Reds named him general manager, at the time he was the youngest GM in Major League Baseball history.

“To be one of thirty to have that job was incredible,” Bowden said. “It was a dream come true without knowing it.”

Bowden’s magic carpet ride with the Reds ended in 2003. After a brief hiatus from the front office, he landed on his feet in Montreal as the Expos were about to be deported to Washington, D.C. Five years as GM of the Nationals ended in 2009.

25 years after breaking into baseball in Pittsburgh, Bowden has finally achieved his career goal in 2010. Becoming a general manager kind of fell into his lap as he worked his way up the front office ladder, but his eagerness to accept a job with the Pirates was so he could eventually call a Barry Bonds walk-off homer in the bottom of the ninth.

Bowden graduated with a degree in communications and wished to become the Bucs play-by-play man.

“A West Palm Beach news director said I reminded him a young Bob Costas,” Bowden said.

This past off-season the Rollins College communications major finally landed his first full-time broadcasting gig as a baseball analyst for Foxsports.com in addition to hosting a four-hour show on Sirius radio. You can add Whatifsports.com baseball insider to the list.

“I really feel you should try to give the fans as much insight and truth as possible,” Bowden said. “A lot of times we get the surface of the story and I thought that was something I could bring to the table.”

Bowden says he works 18-hour days, seven days a week because though his time as a baseball executive is in the past, his passion for the game remains just as strong.

“I think today it’s become the “it” thing to do,” Bowden said about sports broadcasting. “Players want to be anchors on MLB Network. It’s a cool thing to do and it’s now looked upon as a limelight job.”

Jim Bowden’s diet has improved greatly over the past 25 years and Whatifsports.com users will reap the benefits.

Throughout the course of the 2010 baseball season, we’ll be touching base with the former GM to gauge Major League Baseball’s current pulse. You will snack on the filet mignon of hot trends, teams in trouble, minor league updates and in-depth analysis of players about to erupt at the plate.

Jim Bowden on Atlanta Braves Phenom Jason Heyward.

Jason Heyward

As if Atlanta needed any more heat, Braves’ rookie Jason Heyward has added a few dashes of spice to the Atlanta line-up.

The 20-year-old’s spring training long ball that sent one fan’s car to the body shop was a warning shot that Heyward was major league ready.

“The emergence of Jason Heyward and his 8 home runs and 24 RBI’s has been impressive at the age of 20,” Bowden said. “His plate discipline and awareness that he displays makes him look like a 30-year old veteran. His energy, tools, intelligence and work ethic make him a special player.”

Though Bowden is in awe of Heyward’s natural ability at the plate, he warns fans to not get carried away with the comparisons right away.

“I think people’s expectations of him to be Babe Ruth or Gehrig out of the get go are unrealistic. I think he’s going to hit 20, 25 home runs this year, drive in 85 runs and hit .250, .260. At 20 years old those are tremendous numbers. He’s going to be a special player for a very long time.”

 

Jim Bowden’s Biggest Surprises Through the First Month

Teams

San Diego Padres and Oakland Athletics

Both were predicted by most analysts to finish in last place. Both are atop the standings mainly because of pitching and defense and the Padres have now won 47 games over their last 81 leading us to believe that they are for real.

 

Players

Francisco Liriano has looked like the pitcher of 2006 giving the Twins a true “ace.” His strikeouts and GB out ratios are special.

Brad Penny has reinvented himself with a new two-seam FB that is unhittable and Jaime Garcia has recovered from Tommy John surgery to give the Cardinals a strong rotation.

Same can be said in San Francisco where Barry Zito is back and Jonathan Sanchez is appearing to have his break-out season. Jason Varitek is playing like the “old” Varitek, Paul Konerko has 10 HR’s while Big Papi and Trevor Hoffman careers are suddenly in jeopardy as they look finished.

Stephen Strasburg

 

On the Farm

Watch for Mike Stanton of the Marlins, Aroldis Chapman of the Reds and Stephen Strasburg (left) of the Nationals to burst on the scene in May like Heyward did in April.

Walt Jocketty told me that it is Aroldis Chapman’s lack of command of his slider that is holding him back from making his major league debut. His 100mph fastball and above average change-up are ready now. They continue to stretch him out in AAA and as his slider improves watch him to become a fixture in the Reds rotation by Memorial Day.

 

Team’s On the Rise

Atlanta Braves: The Braves are off to a slow start and their bats have been particularly cold in April. Escobar, Jones, Glaus, Diaz, Cabrera, McLouth all hitting .241 or less. Heyward has struggled as well after a fast start. This team is much better than their record and should be a wild card contender. They will improve.

Colorado Rockies : The Rockies played .500 ball in April, but this is one of the better teams in the National League who haven’t seem to put it all together yet. Expect the Rockies to go on a long winning streak and move from 4th to 2nd by the end of May.

 

Team’s On the Fall

Oakland Athletics: They got off to a fast start thanks to solid pitching and defense. Their lack of offense really hasn’t been exposed yet, but by the end of May watch for them to decline.

Washington Nationals : If they continue to be “stubborn” and not bring Stephen Strasburg to the Major Leagues and refuse to make a deal for more offense in RF, Pudge Rodriguez won’t be able to keep his offense up and a combination of the three will lead the Nats to the bottom of the NL East by the end of May.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


MLB Fantasy Focus: Ode to the Utility Man

I’m in love with a man whom I’ve never met. My knowledge of his life is minimal, and he doesn’t even know I exist. Yet he’s affected my life in ways few have, and I preach his praises to any congregation that will listen.

I am, of course, referring to Chone Figgins.

For the better part of five years, Mr. Figgins has been the cornerstone of my fantasy baseball dynasty (and I do mean dynasty, as “Beall’s Bleacher Bums” have taken home the league crown in four straight seasons). Unfortunately, a glance at the back of his baseball card wouldn’t concur with this statement. Not that he’s had a bad career; quite the contrary. But lifetime averages of .291 BA, .365 OBP, 5 HR, 59 RBI, 100 R and 48 SB would hardly qualify consideration of “fantasy foundation” status. So when others question the validity of my affection for Figgins (which is often), I counter with this simple argument: position flexibility. To elaborate, Chone Figgins has the versatility to be penciled into six positions on the diamond.

Chone Figgins

For fantasy intentions, that declaration is not technically accurate, as most leagues have three umbrella “OF” slots rather than individual (LF, CF, RF) positions. Yet, keeping this constraint in mind, the ability to maneuver a player into 2nd, 3rd, SS, OF or Utility is a wildly underrated asset to possess in fantasy baseball. Anyone who has participated in a fantasy league understands the disgust and dismay of a vacant 2nd baseman spot while three outfielders waste away on the bench. But with the help of my man Figgins, this dilemma is alleviated.

Think I’m making much ado about nothing? Reconsider this premise amigo, for one of the hidden secrets to fantasy success is not so much dependent on how your players perform; rather, it’s how often they perform. Referring back to the scenario above, starting a less-than-filled lineup in fantasy is a recipe for disaster. As I researched through past final standings in rotisserie leagues, there was strong correlation between the top teams and high player at-bat/game totals. To summarize, the more at-bats your team gets, the better chance you have of accumulating statistics. A simply theory in principle, yet one that somehow alludes a majority of fantasy users.

Which brings us back to Figgins. An uber-utility man, Figgins was a late-season call-up for Angels’ 2002 World Series run, mostly serving as pinch-runner. In ’03 he opened his career roving center, transitioned to 3rd in ’04, split time in between 2nd, 3rd, and OF in ’05, returned to center in ’06, before finally finding a (somewhat) permanent home at 3rd from ’07 to ’09. In today’s day and age of ultimate ego in professional sports, few athletes have the humility to disregard their personal interests for the betterment of the team. You may think position rotation is inconsequential, but for many in the sport, baseball is all about routine, and the uncertainty of where one will be placed can add unnecessary anxiety. The fact that Figgins did this for years was relatively lost upon the baseball world, save for Angel fans and Figgins fantasy owners.

Figgins hasn’t been the only one to man multiple positions. Last season, Ben Zobrist burst onto the AL East scene by compiling a .297 BA, .405 OBP, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 90 R line while playing seven positions for Tampa Bay. Mark DeRosa was featured at five different areas of the field while splitting time with Cleveland and St. Louis in ’09. The newest addition to this list is Martin Prado , who is hitting .354 with 16 Runs in 2010 and has the capability to play 1st, 2nd, or 3rd.

Staying true to my Figgins philosophy, I was able to select Zobrist in my league’s draft this season. Tragically, Figgins himself was robbed from my grasps a selection too soon, and the Bleacher Bums will be without his services for the first time since I hit puberty. So to mark this end of an era, I bid this ode to you Chone. Farewell my friend. Farewell.

Jay Bruce

Start ’em: Jay Bruce, Reds. Although the Reds’ right-fielder struggled to the start the season (6 for 41 at the plate), Bruce has been on a tear since, hitting .348 with 4 HRs and 14 Runs since April 18.

Sit ’em: Joe Mauer , Twins. The reigning AL MVP might miss a few weeks rather than a few games while nursing a bruised left heel. Mauer was batting .345 with a .406 OBP and 13 RBI before being relegated to the bench. In a related note, we hear all the time about the “Madden cover curse” but how about the misfortune that has befallen those who have graced the front of “MLB: The Show?” In ’07, David Wright appears as the pitchman, only for the Mets to suffer a late-season collapse of epic proportions, losing 12 of their last 17. Dustin Pedroia ‘s batting average is 30 points lower to his previous season after his image is plastered in the front of the ’09 edition. And now Mauer’s foot injury. In the words of my friend John, “Not saying, just saying.”

Fantasy Flashback: This segment will spotlight a player who would’ve been a fantasy force had rotisserie leagues existed in that particular period. Today we salute 1894 Billy Hamilton . Billy had quite the campaign for the Philadelphia Phillies , hitting .404 with an absurd .523 OBP, while stealing 98 bases and scoring 192 times. Granted, the stolen base and run totals are slightly diminished when you learn Hamilton averaged nearly 7 at-bats a game, as well competing in a time when the sport was segregated. However, according to the ever-reliable Wikipedia, Hamilton is one of 5 men in baseball history to hit a leadoff AND walk-off home run in the same game. So he’s got that going for him.

Waiver Wire Watch: Fausto Carmona , Indians. After two seasons riddled with injuries and control issues, Carmona appears to have regained his 2007 form (in which he won 19 games). Carmona is 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA (which can be contributed to a 6 IP/6 ER performance against MIN) in 2010, and is owned by only 33-percent of those in fantasy leagues. While he’s not a big K producer, Carmona will eat up plenty of innings while posting a moderately low ERA.

Rookie Review: Justin Smoak, Rangers. Lost in the Jason Heyward-mania has been the call-up of Smoak, a unanimous top-10 prospect heading into the 2010 season. Appearing at three levels in ’09, Smoak combined to hit .290 with a .410 OBP. A switch-hitter, Smoak should benefit from playing in hitter-friendly Arlington, and despite a slow start, is 5 for his last 19 with 2 HRs.

Jonathan Broxton

This week in Jonathon Broxton: Broxton’s line so far in the 2010 campaign: 1-0, 1 SV, 14 Ks with a 0.00 ERA. You may inquire why Broxton merits his own section. My rebuttal: 1) The man fires a 100mph fastball 2) He rocks the muttonchops 3) Dude’s playing baseball despite pushing three bills and 4) Swaggers out from the bullpen to Black Sabbath. Need I say more?

Trade Talk: Today’s trade discussion centers on dealing floundering early-round selections. Patience is a virtue, and fantasy baseball sure puts this truth to the test. The natural reaction to an underperforming player is to ship his rotten carcass from your team as soon as possible. But don’t let a slow start sour your affection. More importantly, don’t get suckered into giving away a 2nd or 3rd rounder for 10 cents on the dollar. There’ll always be that guy in your league offering you someone like Jose Lopez for your slumping 1st-round selection. Remember that it’s a 6-month season and keep the faith in your draft picks. (That being said, anyone who wants to take David Ortiz off my hands is more than welcome. Apparently “Big Papi” is Spanish for “under the Mendoza line.”)

Big League Chew Player of the Week goes to: David Freese, Cardinals. Since April 28, Freese is 13-for-23 (.565) at the plate, with 3 HRs and 14 RBI. Hard to debate that anyone is “hotter” in baseball than “Freese” right now. Thank you, thank you, I’ll be here all week.

Spit Your Tobacco at: Javier Vasquez, Yankees. After 5 starts, Vasquez has logged 23 innings and racked up a 9.78 ERA. On the bright side, Vasquez still isn’t as despised as Carl Pavano . Yet.

That’s it for this week. Enjoy St. Louis at Philly, the Yanks invading Fenway, and the Brewers and Dodgers battling for National League inferiority. Class dismissed.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


Tampa Bay Rays Lead the Way in MLB Power Rankings: May 3, 2010

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its award-winning baseball simulation engine to present the most comprehensive and unbiased ranking possible of all 30 teams in baseball each Monday during the regular season.

To come up with the rankings, using only their statistical performance to date this season, each team is simulated against every other team 100 times (50 at home and 50 away). All five pitchers in the current rotation start 10 times at each location.

(Note: If a pitcher who was in the rotation was recently put on the DL, he will not be included in the simulations.)

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)

  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
1. Tampa Bay Rays 69.7 6.0 3.5
2. New York Yankees 69.3 6.1 3.8
3. San Francisco Giants 66.9 5.4 3.5
4. St. Louis Cardinals 66.2 5.7 3.6
5. Minnesota Twins 63.1 5.4 4.1
6. Washington Nationals 57.9 5.0 4.4
7. Chicago Cubs 56.9 5.6 4.6
8. New York Mets 55.5 5.2 4.5
9. Detroit Tigers 54.1 5.4 5.3
10. Toronto Blue Jays 52.4 4.7 4.0
  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
11. Colorado Rockies 52.1 5.3 5.2
12. Kansas City Royals 51.0 5.3 5.3
13. Milwaukee Brewers 50.0 6.1 5.9
14. Los Angeles Dodgers 50.0 5.4 5.4
15. Texas Rangers 49.3 4.2 4.4
16. Philadelphia Phillies 49.0 5.3 5.6
17. Chicago White Sox 48.6 4.2 4.5
18. San Diego Padres 46.9 4.4 4.5
19. Arizona Diamondbacks 46.9 5.4 6.0
20. Los Angeles Angels 46.6 4.7 5.4
  Team Change Win Pct RS/G RA/G
21. Atlanta Braves 44.5 4.1 4.7
22. Florida Marlins 44.1 4.6 5.2
23. Cincinnati Reds 43.1 4.8 5.6
24. Boston Red Sox 42.8 4.6 5.8
25. Oakland Athletics 41.4 4.1 4.6
26. Cleveland Indians 41.4 4.0 5.0
27. Seattle Mariners 40.3 3.8 4.8
28. Baltimore Orioles 38.3 3.9 5.4
29. Houston Astros 33.1 3.1 5.1
30. Pittsburgh Pirates 28.6 4.0 6.2

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com


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